TRUMP AND MEXICO

What catapulted Donald Trump's popularity as he began his presidential campaign in 2015 was his assertion that Mexico did not send the best people to the United States, but primarily rapists and criminals.

Trump pledged to deport millions of illegal immigrants from the United States to Mexico and their countries of origin, without contemplation.

That resonated strongly with a large section of the electorate of the Republican Party that has always opposed immigration, not only illegal, but even legal.

Trump later claimed that the way to stop illegal migration coming through the country's southwestern border was to build a wall along the 3,200 kilometers (1988 miles) of the U. S. - Mexico border; and that Mexico would pay for that wall.

Trump also pointed out that the Free Trade Agreement between the United States, Canada, and Mexico was harmful to Americans, because low wages in Mexico and the lack of labor and environmental regulations had led to the deindustrialization of the United States, as companies had moved their factories to Mexico and China.

And in the same way, Mexico’s trade surpluses with the United States, due to NAFTA, affected the U. S. economy.

Trump also referred to drug smuggling that continues to flow from Mexico to the United States and pledged to fight Mexican drug cartels.

But at the end of his term in office on January 20, 2021, Trump was unable to deliver on most of his promises regarding Mexico.

With respect to the construction of the wall, according to the Bureau of Customs and Border Protection, 727 kilometers (452 miles) of the border wall had been constructed by 4, January 2021.

But of that amount, only 129 kilometers (80 miles) of “new wall” were built; the rest were repairs and replacements of old fences with new ones.
Mexico did not pay for the wall, but Trump continued to assure that it did, because pressure from Washington forced the government of President López Obrador to send 28,000 members of the National Guard to its southern border to stop illegal migration, thus constituting a “human wall” on the border with Guatemala that was paid for by Mexico.

Concerning deportations, during Obama's second term (2012-2016) more undocumented people were deported than during the four years of Trump's administration, as the Democrat expelled 1,280,000 migrants from the country, while Trump expelled 800,000 during his term (Biden has already expelled 1,200,000 so far, so he will surpass Obama).

Regarding U. S. investment in Mexico, data from the Mexican government confirm that it decreased during Donald Trump’s presidency:

2017: $15,554,000,000 corresponding to 45.4% of total foreign investment received in Mexico that year.

2018: $11,772,600,000 corresponding to 34.7% of total foreign investment received that year in Mexico.

2019: $12,850,400,000 corresponding to 37.6% of total foreign investment received that year in Mexico.

2020: $10,240,900,000 corresponding to 37.1% of total foreign investment received that year in Mexico.

Regarding the trade balance between the two countries, it developed as follows during the Trump administration:

2017: $131,006,000,000 surplus for Mexico.

2018: $139,826,000,000 surplus for Mexico.

2019: $151,510,000,000 surplus for Mexico.

2020: $160,978,000,000 surplus for Mexico.

So, when it comes to trade, America’s trade deficits not only remained, but increased. And this, even though on July 1, 2020, the new trade agreement between the United States, Canada, and Mexico (USMCA) entered into force, which was promoted by Trump and which, according to him, would reverse the inequality in trade relations between the three North American partners, benefiting the United States more.

Regarding drug trafficking, Trump threatened the Mexican governments (first that of Peña Nieto and then that of López Obrador), that he would call the drug cartels “terrorist organizations” if Mexico did not commit itself to fighting them thoroughly.

He finally did not designate the cartels as “terrorist organizations,” and even at the end of his presidency, when the DEA arrested former Mexican Secretary of National Defense, General Salvador Cienfuegos, in Los Angeles, California, accusing him of drug trafficking links, both Trump and his then Attorney General, William Barr, faced with protests from Mexico’s government and threats to end all security cooperation with the United States, forced them to return the General to Mexico, where he enjoys complete freedom, without any charges against him.

It was later learned that Trump went so far as to propose to his security cabinet the possibility of bombing drug cartel laboratories and their hiding places in Mexico, but he was deterred from doing so.

Now Trump continues to make many harsh claims against Mexico on his way to the White House, as in this new attempt in 2024, since he has indicated, once again, that he will directly attack Mexico's drug cartels; that he will expel all illegal migrants from the country; that he will completely seal off the southwest border, to prevent the arrival of more migrants, etc.

It remains to be seen whether Trump succeeds in the nomination of the Republican Party, which is beginning to be complicated by the rise of former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, supported by the traditional political establishment of the Republican Party and by the neo-conservatives who continue to dominate foreign and security policy in the Joe Biden administration.

If Trump is the Republican candidate, he will have to defeat Biden in the general election; and if he does, we will have to see how many of his threats and invectives against Mexico he will be willing to put into practice, both in terms of migration, drug trafficking and issues such as trade and investment (in 2026 it is established that a revision of the USMCA must be made); and how many of these public policies will be supported by big economic interests, the political-military establishment and powerful interest groups in the United States.