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sábado, 30 de abril de 2022

 Putting Biden’s new whopping $33B Ukraine package into context

His proposal ‘would make Kyiv the largest yearly recipient of U.S. military aid of at least the past two decades.’

APRIL 28, 2022

Written by
Ben Freeman and William Hartung

https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2022/04/28/putting-bidens-new-whopping-33b-ukraine-package-into-context/

Today the Biden administration requested a whopping $33 billion aid package for Ukraine. This is on top of a $14 billion Ukraine aid package enacted last month. 

While Russian aggression in Ukraine has been appalling in its violence, this is nonetheless a historically large aid package that is worth putting into context.

For starters, if Congress signs off on this new request the U.S. will have authorized $47 billion in total spending to Ukraine. That’s more than the Biden administration is committing to stopping climate change and almost as much as the entire State Department budget.

The vast majority of this new aid package, $20.4 billion, is for “additional security and military assistance for Ukraine and for U.S. efforts to strengthen European security in cooperation with our NATO allies and other partners in the region,” according to the White House. 

“Coupled with the $3.7 billion in military assistance already made available to Ukraine since Russia‘s invasion, President Biden’s proposal of an additional $20 billion would make Kyiv the largest yearly recipient of U.S. military aid of at least the past two decades,” explained Elias Yousif, a security assistance expert at the Stimson Center.

“The amount is more than twice the largest yearly total ever provided to Afghanistan — where the U.S. was actively at war — and approximately seven times Israel’s annual military assistance package,” continued Yousif.

This aid package is also more than the U.S. spent on the so-called Overseas Contingency Operations (OCO) account during the first year of the U.S. conflict in Afghanistan, and more than the total amount of money all but 13 countries in the world spend on their military, according to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. 

In addition to Ukrainian fighters, one of the primary beneficiaries of this aid package will be Pentagon contractors, whose CEO’s have explained how the Ukraine conflict is good for business and have seen their stock prices soar since the war began. According to Taylor Giorno of OpenSecrets, the top five defense contractors spent more than $16 million on lobbying in the first quarter of 2022 alone, and their CEOs met directly with Pentagon leadership earlier this month to discuss Ukraine security assistance. 

While Ukrainian fighters will benefit from these arms it’s vitally important for the U.S. to consider the risks of these arms transfers as well, not the least of which is the potential for getting the U.S. into a direct military confrontation with Russia. As Seth G. Jones of the Center for Strategic and International Studies told the New York Times“the risk of a widening war is serious right now . . . Russian casualties are continuing to mount, and the U.S. is committed to shipping more powerful weapons that are causing those casualties.”

There is also the possibility that U.S. arms will fall into the hands of U.S. adversaries, as they have in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, and elsewhere. 

In addition, there is the direct economic cost to U.S. taxpayers who, ultimately, have to foot the bill for this historic aid package. Part of that cost could come from the kinds of fraud, waste, and abuse that groups like the Special Inspector General for Afghan Reconstruction (SIGAR) have uncovered in other cases where billions of dollars were being shoveled out the door in the name of national security without adequate oversight or coordination.

Helping Ukraine defend itself is one thing, but it should be done with an eye toward limiting the risks of escalation and unintended economic and security consequences.  The administration’s latest aid request should be carefully debated and scrutinized before it is allowed to sail through in its current form.

jueves, 28 de abril de 2022

 On Ukraine, the World Majority Sides With Russia Over US

Russia pivots to the dynamic East and fast-developing Global South

by John V. Walsh Posted on April 28, 2022

https://original.antiwar.com/john-v-walsh/2022/04/27/on-ukraine-the-world-majority-sides-with-russia-over-us/

2014 saw two pivotal events that led to the current conflict in Ukraine.

The first, familiar to all, was the coup in Ukraine in which a democratically elected government was overthrown at the direction of the United States and with the assistance of neo-Nazi elements which Ukraine has long harbored.

Shortly thereafter the first shots in the present war were fired on the Russian-sympathetic Donbas region by the newly installed Ukrainian government. The shelling of the Donbas which claimed 14,000 lives has continued for 8 years, despite attempts at a cease-fire under the Minsk accords which Russia, France, and Germany agreed upon but Ukraine backed by the US refused to implement. On February 24, 2022, Russia finally responded to the slaughter in Donbas and the threat of NATO on its doorstep.

Russia Turns to the East – China Provides an Alternative Economic Powerhouse.

The second pivotal event of 2014 was less noticed and in fact rarely mentioned in the Western mainstream media. In November of that year according to the IMF, China’s GDP surpassed that of the U.S. in purchasing power parity terms (PPP GDP). (This measure of GDP is calculated and published by the IMF, World Bank, and even the CIA. Students of international relations like economics Nobel Laureate, Joseph Stiglitz, Graham Allison, and many others consider this metric the best measure of a nation’s comparative economic power.) One person who took note and who often mentions China’s standing in the PPP-GDP ranking is none other than Russia’s President Vladimir Putin.

From one point of view, the Russian action in Ukraine represents a decisive turn away from the hostile West to the more dynamic East and the Global South. This follows decades of importuning the West for a peaceful relationship since the Cold War’s end. As Russia makes its Pivot to the East, it is doing its best to ensure that its Western border with Ukraine is secured.

Following the Russian action in Ukraine, the inevitable US sanctions poured onto Russia. China refused to join them and refused to condemn Russia. This was no surprise; after all Putin’s Russia and Xi’s China had been drawing ever closer for years, most notably with trade denominated in ruble-renminbi exchange, thus moving toward independence from the West’s dollar-dominated trade regime.

The World Majority Refuses to Back US Sanctions

But then a big surprise. India joined China in refusing to honor the US sanctions regime. And India kept to its resolve despite enormous pressure including calls from Biden to Modi and a train of high-level US, UK, and EU officials trekking off to India to bully, threaten and otherwise attempt to intimidate India. India would face "consequences," and the tired US threat went up. India did not budge.

India’s close military and diplomatic ties with Russia were forged during the anti-colonial struggles of the Soviet era. India’s economic interests in Russian exports could not be countermanded by US threats. Now India and Russia are now working on trade via ruble-rupee exchange. In fact, Russia has turned out to be a factor that put India and China on the same side, pursuing their own interests and independence in the face of the US diktat. Moreover, with trade-in ruble-renminbi exchange already a reality and with the ruble-rupee exchange in the offing, are we about to witness a Renminbi-Ruble-Rupee world of trade – a "3R" alternative to the Dollar-Euro monopoly? Is the world’s second most important political relationship, that between India and China, about to take a more peaceful direction? What’s the world’s first and most important relationship?

India is but one example of the shift in power. Out of 195 countries, only 30 have honored the US sanctions on Russia. That means about 165 countries in the world have refused to join the sanctions. Those countries represent by far the majority of the world’s population. Most of Africa, Latin America (including Mexico and Brazil), and East Asia (excepting Japan, and South Korea, both occupied by US troops and hence not sovereign, Singapore, and the renegade Chinese Province of Taiwan) have refused. (India and China alone represent 35% of humanity.)

Add to the fact that 40 different countries are now the targets of US sanctions and there is a powerful constituency to oppose the thuggish economic tactics of the US

Finally, at the recent G-20 Summit, a walkout led by the US when the Russia delegate spoke was joined by the representatives of only 3 other G-20 countries, with 80% of these leading financial nations refusing to join! Similarly, a US attempt to bar a Russian delegate from a G-20 meeting later in the year in Bali was rebuffed by Indonesia which currently holds the G-20 Presidency.

Nations Taking Russia’s side are no longer poor as in Cold War 1.0.

These dissenting countries of the Global South are no longer as poor as they were during the Cold War. Of the top 10 countries in PPP-GDP, 5 do not support the sanctions. And these include China (number one) and India (number 3). So the first and third most powerful economies stand against the US on this matter. (Russia is number 6 on that list about equal to Germany, number 5, the two being close to equal, belying the idea that Russia’s economy is negligible.)

These stands are vastly more significant than any UN vote. Such votes can be coerced by great power and little attention is paid to them in the world. But the economic interests of a nation and its view of the main danger in the world are important determinants of how it reacts economically – for example to sanctions. A "no" to US sanctions is putting one’s money where one’s mouth is.

We in the West hear that Russia is "isolated in the world" as a result of the crisis in Ukraine. If one is speaking about the Eurovassal states and the Anglosphere, that is true. But considering humanity as a whole and among the rising economies of the world, it is the US that stands isolated. And even in Europe, cracks are emerging. Hungary and Serbia have not joined the sanctions regime and of course, most European countries will not and indeed cannot turn away from Russian energy imports crucial to their economies. It appears that the grand scheme of US global hegemony to be brought about by the US move to WWII Redux, both Cold and Hot, has hit a mighty snag.

For those who look forward to a multipolar world, this is a welcome turn of events emerging out of the cruel tragedy of the US proxy war in Ukraine. The possibility of a saner, more prosperous multipolar world lies ahead – if we can get there.

John V. Walsh, until recently a professor of physiology and neuroscience at the University of Massachusetts Chan Medical School, has written on issues of peace and health care for Asia Times, San Francisco Chronicle, EastBayTimes/San Jose Mercury News, LA Progressive, Antiwar.com, CounterPunch, and others.

miércoles, 27 de abril de 2022

 LA OTAN SE PREPARA PARA INTERVENIR DIRECTAMENTE EN UCRANIA

En una lectura muy optimista del curso de los acontecimientos en Ucrania, los altos mandos militares de Estados Unidos y la OTAN están considerando un escalamiento significativo en el conflicto entre Rusia y Ucrania, pues consideran que Moscú está en retirada en su “operación militar especial”.

Primero, Putin detuvo el avance del ejército ruso en el Norte de Ucrania y la toma de Kiev, porque consideró que las bajas civiles, los costos para sus fuerzas armadas y las matanzas de “falsa bandera” (como la de Bucha) que se atribuirían a sus soldados, constituían un alto costo a pagar.

Segundo, los ucranianos han estado recibiendo cada vez más armamento de Occidente, cada vez más sofisticado y una creciente ayuda logística y de inteligencia, así como de entrenamiento (ya están los miembros de las fuerzas especiales británicas SAS en territorio ucraniano), lo que ha fortalecido la resistencia del ejército ucraniano y la precisión de sus ataques (incluidos varios ya al interior de Rusia), por lo que se optó por disminuir la longitud de la línea de combate, para resguardar mejor a las fuerzas rusas y concentrarlas en las áreas en donde las posibilidades de avance y triunfo son mayores.

Tercero, Putin concluyó que era mejor centrar la “operación militar especial” en el Este, para asegurar el “puente” entre Crimea y el Donbás, tomando el puerto de Mariupol, y mantener a raya al resto del ejército ucraniano con ataques aéreos y lanzamiento de misiles, para así minimizar las bajas rusas y evitar, en lo posible, provocar enfrentamientos en zonas cercanas a los países miembros de la OTAN.

Todo ello ha convencido a Washington y sus aliados de la OTAN que es el momento de intensificar la ayuda militar a Ucrania, profundizar el bloqueo económico y diplomático a Rusia, y eventualmente intentar operaciones más arriesgadas como ataques directos de los ucranianos al territorio ruso (propuesto ya por el Ministro de Defensa británico) o incluso la entrada de fuerzas de la OTAN en el Oeste de Ucrania, para desde ahí seguir apoyando a las fuerzas armadas ucranianas con armas, logística, entrenamiento, etc. Además, de que numerosos legisladores estadounidenses siguen insistiendo en que se establezca una “zona de no vuelo” en Ucrania para detener los ataques aéreos rusos.

En suma, los occidentales ya están empujando la narrativa de que con la suficiente ayuda militar e incluso con la participación directa de la OTAN en ciertas circunstancias, Ucrania “puede ganar la guerra” e incluso recuperar los territorios tomados por los rusos desde el 2014.

Si la OTAN ya está en esta dinámica, lo que va a suceder es que Moscú va a poner “toda la carne en el asador” para no perder los territorios conquistados y, por supuesto, para no perder la guerra. Y ello implica un escalamiento todavía mayor, que en algún momento implicará atacar a convoyes de ayuda, bases o transportes occidentales que estén entrando en Ucrania. De ahí para adelante, es decir, el uso de armas nucleares de parte de alguno de los dos bandos, estaría a solo un paso de concretarse.

Occidente está decidido a acabar, no sólo con el gobierno de Putin, sino a desmembrar a Rusia, para no permitirle convertirse nuevamente en una potencia retadora de la hegemonía occidental; y eso va a llevar a Rusia a defenderse con todo, lo que ocasionará inevitablemente la Tercera Guerra Mundial.

Pero en Washington, Londres y Bruselas están envalentonados y pretenden terminar con el “problema ruso”, aprovechando el conflicto en Ucrania, lo que llevará a la destrucción de Europa y de ahí a la posibilidad de una guerra nuclear, que devastaría al planeta.

martes, 26 de abril de 2022

 Desnudaron al Presidente

El silencio ante lo que dijo (Trump) el sábado en Ohio convierte un dicho en verdad, y una acción en realidad, dice Raymundo Riva Palacio.

Raymundo Riva Palacio

https://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/opinion/raymundo-riva-palacio/2022/04/26/desnudaron-al-presidente/

abril 26, 2022

Quién lo iba a pensar. Donald Trump, a quien el presidente Andrés Manuel López Obrador ve fraternalmente y ha puesto la cara por él hasta la ignominia, lo maltrató de una manera miserable el sábado pasado durante un mitin electoral en Ohio. Trump fue a respaldar a un candidato republicano al Senado y habló de muchas cosas en el evento, regodeándose burlonamente sobre cómo impuso al secretario de Relaciones Exteriores, Marcelo Ebrard, el envío de 28 mil soldados a la frontera sur de México para contener la migración. La forma como lo explicó mostró una gran elasticidad de Ebrard y de su jefe López Obrador, para doblarse ante Trump. Los dos reaccionaron sin atajar el señalamiento de fondo: lo fácil que fue hacer que cumplieran lo que quería.

Trump dijo que le exigió a Ebrard el programa Permanecer en México y el envío de soldados a la frontera con Guatemala. De no cumplir con ello, le advirtió, impondría aranceles a productos mexicanos. No se sabe si el canciller, que habló con Trump en la Casa Blanca, consultó con el presidente López Obrador la decisión a tomar, pero el resultado, como lo describió Trump, es que “nunca (había) visto a nadie doblarse así”. Ayer, siguieron doblados el Presidente y su canciller.

Pudieron desmentirlo en la mañanera, pero se fueron por las ramas. López Obrador dijo, pese al tamaño del insulto, que se entendió con Trump cuando era presidente y que fue bueno para las dos naciones. Hasta en la humillación es condescendiente con Trump. López Obrador justificó sus dichos por el contexto electoral que se vive, aceptando con el silencio el trato indigno que recibió. La reacción de Ebrard fue todavía peor. Sin atacar el fondo de las palabras de Trump, que lo muestran como un pelele, dijo que López Obrador era un patriota y que había mostrado entereza en los “momentos críticos” de la negociación con el entonces jefe de la Casa Blanca, aunque no se refería al episodio de las amenazas por la migración, sino la del acuerdo comercial de América del Norte.

Los dos se quedaron sin espacio de maniobra y en entredicho, al ubicarlos en el mitin que convocó López Obrador en Tijuana el 8 de junio, un día después de la reunión de Ebrard con Trump, que proponía un acto de unidad en defensa de la dignidad de México y a favor de “la sagrada amistad con el pueblo de Estados Unidos”. Ebrard voló de Washington a Tijuana para sumarse al evento y declarar a pulmón abierto, que México había evitado la imposición de aranceles, con su “dignidad intacta”. Hoy sabemos, porque no lo desmintió ni el canciller ni el Presidente, que ellos miden la dignidad muy distinto a como la miden muchos mexicanos.

Lo que negociaron con Trump a cambio de cancelar su amenaza de represalias comerciales, fue enviar al Ejército –aunque nunca se llegó a 28 mil soldados– a frenar a la migración centroamericana en la frontera sur, el viejo sueño de Estados Unidos de correr su frontera estratégica del río Bravo a Guatemala, una exigencia que siempre rechazaron los gobiernos mexicanos, sin distinción de filiación o sistema político. Pero además aceptaron, en un cambio radical a la política de asilo mexicana, que los centroamericanos que pidieran asilo a Estados Unidos, no lo hicieran en su territorio, sino en tierras mexicanas.

La declaración de Trump los desnudó y descolocó. Quedó muy claro ayer en la mañanera, donde el presidente López Obrador luchó para tratar de salir del pozo en el que lo arrojó Trump, bateando las preguntas específicas de la prensa. Como botones de muestra:

-¿Le faltó al respeto Donald Trump con estas declaraciones? ¿Se excedió?

-No, no, no. Él es así, y hay que ver las circunstancias.

-¿Fue falso lo que dijo?

-No voy a polemizar sobre eso. En mi libro cuento cómo fue la relación.

De ahí, como suele suceder cada vez que quiere evadir un punto delicado, conflictivo o busca desviar hacia un tema que le interese, comenzó a divagar y hablar de cosas inconexas. Ayer, sobre las reacciones a la muerte de la palma en Paseo de la Reforma, de Enrique Krauze y las imputaciones insustanciales que le hace reiteradamente. Tampoco faltó el periodista Carlos Loret, donde el Presidente apuró para tratar de cambiar el curso de la conversación, para dar a conocer su departamento en Polanco. Es decir, nada sustancial ni relevante para tan grave acusación.

El 3 de junio de 2019, tras el amago de Trump de imponer aranceles como represalia por el flujo migratorio sin control, se escribió en este espacio: “En 72 horas, el presidente Andrés Manuel López Obrador dio muestras de un manejo de crisis totalmente inapropiado ante la amenaza del presidente Donald Trump, de imponer cinco por ciento de aranceles, que irían escalando en represalia por las insuficientes acciones para frenar a la migración centroamericana”.

“El Presidente fue de una posición enérgica a una serie de equivocaciones tácticas, falta de estrategia, situaciones embarazosas para su secretario de Relaciones Exteriores, y afirmaciones donde mostró un giro de su actitud soberana, para caminar hacia la capitulación. Después de esos tres días erráticos y confusión política, el Presidente continuó enredándose en declaraciones y Trump, escalando el costo político para el gobierno mexicano. El resultado de las pláticas esta semana en Washington no pinta bien para el gobierno lopezobradorista”.

Al terminar esa semana, la narrativa en Tijuana fue la de una batalla épica en la Casa Blanca, donde negociaron con talento ante Trump y evitaron los aranceles. Casi tres años después, uno de los protagonistas, Trump, contó su versión de la historia, que está en las antípodas del heroísmo planteado por Ebrard. Trump miente, pero ni el Presidente ni el canciller lo enfrentaron. Al contrario. El silencio ante lo que dijo el sábado en Ohio convierte un dicho en verdad, y una acción en realidad. López Obrador capituló y ante Trump, sigue de rodillas.

lunes, 25 de abril de 2022

 Nuestro litio y los tratados de inversiones

Manuel Pérez Rocha L.*

https://www.jornada.com.mx/2022/04/25/opinion/015a1pol

Frustrados quedaron los vendepatrias de administraciones anteriores y empresas mineras que se salivaban con el litio de nuestro país. Advierten que la nacionalización del litio en México contraviene al T-MEC. La verdad es que el capítulo 14-E de este tratado se limita a proteger a empresas con contratos de gobierno de sectores que no incluyen al sector minero (ver sectores en página 14-E-3, https://bit.ly/3jZX5ac).

No obstante, se tienen que tomar en cuenta otros tratados. Para empezar, el capítulo de inversiones vigente hasta el 31 de junio de 2023 sigue siendo, bajo la llamada cláusula de legado del T-MEC, el capítulo 11 del TLCAN, que sí incluye minería y por lo cual la 4T sabe bien que no puede rescindir contratos a empresas mineras canadienses o estadunidenses. Así lo precisó López Obrador: Se van a revisar todos los contratos, los autorizados para litio. No se suspenden los contratos para otros minerales, no es para la plata, no es para el oro, para el cobre, es litio. Tampoco se podrán rescindir contratos mineros cuando expire la cláusula de legado, ya que México es parte del Tratado Transpacífico (TPP) del cual Canadá es parte, y trasnacionales estadunidenses también podrían demandar a México domiciliándose en ese país.

En el anuncio de AMLO de una revisión de contratos otorgados para la explotación del litio ( La Jornada, 22/4/20) es esencial saber si se han otorgado concesiones de explotación a empresas estadunidenses y canadienses que pudieran usar la cláusula de legado del TLCAN. Lo que sí sabemos es que hay una concesión previamente otorgada para la explotación de litio en el yacimiento de Sonora, el mayor del mundo, a la empresa con capital chino Bacanora Lithum, subsidiaria de Ganfeng Lithium, el mayor productor de litio en el mundo y cuya concesión, según reportes, le permitiría extraer 35 mil toneladas por año de carbonato de litio (https://bit.ly/3vciiUN).

Al revisar esta concesión hay que prever si Ganfeng Lithium puede acudir al Acuerdo de Protección y Promoción Recíproca de Inversiones (APPRI) entre México y China, firmado en 2009 (https://bit.ly/3v4fCsa), para demandar a México. En su artículo 7 queda establecido que 1. Ninguna Parte Contratante podrá expropiar o nacionalizar una inversión, directa o indirectamente a través de medidas equivalentes a expropiación, excepto (a) por causa de utilidad pública, (b) sobre bases no discriminatorias, (c) con apego al principio de legalidad y (d) mediante el pago de una indemnización conforme al párrafo 2 siguiente: 2. La Indemnización (a) sea equivalente al valor justo de mercado que tenga la inversión expropiada antes de que la expropiación sea llevada a cabo, (b) sea pagada sin demoras, (c) incluya intereses. Y el artículo 13 de este APPRI establece que Un inversionista contendiente podrá someter la reclamación a arbitraje de conformidad con el convenio del CIADI (del Banco Mundial), del cual México y China son miembros.

Empresas chinas ya han realizado varias demandas inversionista-Estado y actualmente tienen tres casos pendientes, notablemente una de Wang y otras empresas contra Ucrania por la impagable cantidad de 3 mil 500 millones de dólares. Dicho sea de paso, además del asedio militar ruso, Ucrania tiene cinco demandas pendientes, tres de empresas rusas y dos de Países Bajos (tema para otro artículo).

El análisis de los contratos de litio, y en general del desempeño de empresas extranjeras en México, incluyendo las de generación eléctrica e hidrocarburos, obliga a la 4T a una profunda revisión de los beneficios y perjuicios de los tratados de libre comercio y los APPRI firmados por gobiernos entreguistas del PRIAN desde Salinas de Gortari. México se encuentra hoy entre los seis países más demandados del mundo por inversionistas extranjeros ante tribunales de arbitraje supranacional, y es el tercer país más demandado de América Latina y el Caribe (después de Venezuela y Argentina).

El arriba citado APPRI con China tiene una cláusula de expiración de 10 años, por lo que desde 2019 se puede terminar unilateralmente. De hecho, de los 31 APPRI que México tiene firmados, 21 podrían ser terminados, pues pasaron la fase inicial de 10 o 15 años que estipula el tratado para su vigencia, con lo cual México tiene la oportunidad de salirse de más de 2/3 de todos sus tratados bilaterales de inversión (https://isds-americalatina.org/perfiles-de-paises/mexico/). Hasta en el T-MEC se estipula que Para mayor certeza, las Partes del Anexo (México y Estados Unidos) podrán acordar la modificación o eliminación de este Anexo (14-E-3).

El 28 de abril de 2020, en pleno comienzo de la crisis del covid-19, México y la Unión Europea anunciaron el final de la negociación de la modernización de su TLC con la Unión Europea (TLCUEM), vigente desde el año 2000, y firmaron un acuerdo de principio cuya novedad es la inclusión de un capítulo de protección de inversiones, que el viejo TLCUEM no tenía y que sustituiría todos los APPRI entre México y países miembros de la UE. Con este nuevo capítulo, las privatizaciones y reformas entreguistas en el sector energético de gobiernos pasados se blindarían aún más, y los esfuerzos de la 4T de recobrar la soberanía energética y los recursos naturales se seguirían enfrentando a una andanada de demandas sin fin. Ya veremos cómo, ante la nacionalización del litio en México (y otros países como Bolivia), la voracidad de empresas extractivas e instituciones como el Banco Mundial se confabulan.

* Investigador del Institute for Policy Studies, www.ips-dc.org

Twitter: @ManuelPerezIPS

domingo, 24 de abril de 2022

Can Japan’s right-wing ever revive militarism by catering to the US?

Global Times editorial

By Global Times Published: Apr 24, 2022

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202204/1260131.shtml

Some worrying trends have been emerging in Japan recently. The Liberal Democratic Party of Japan has put forward a number of suggestions on revising the country's direction-setting National Security Strategy, including describing China as a "grave threat," increasing defense expenditure to over 2 percent of GDP within five years, and pursuing the ability to attack an enemy's command and control systems as well as missile bases. At the same time, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan on Friday released its 2022 Diplomatic Bluebook. Some analysts believe that the policy report abandoned the country's moderate attitude toward Russia in the past nearly two decades and shifted to a hard-line stance. 

In the new Bluebook, Japan not only hypes up the "China threat theory" and the Taiwan question but also harshly condemns Russia's "invasion" of Ukraine. And for the first time, the report says the Southern Kurils, which Japan calls the Northern Territories, are "illegally occupied by Russia." It says Japan will cooperate with South Korea to "deal with" North Korea. But it calls Takeshima, referred to by South Korea as Dokdo, "Japan's territory," which triggered protests from the South Korean Foreign Ministry. 

The territorial disputes and frictions between Japan and its neighboring countries have historical origins, but in the context of the increasing geopolitical conflicts in the world, it is hard not to imagine whether Japan intends to take advantage of the chaos through such indiscriminate moves, like spraying bullets from a machine gun. 

After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Japan has been very active in "punishing Russia." While many European countries are remaining cautious, Japan, an Asian country, has become one of the most high-profile allies of Washington on this issue. At the same time, some politicians in Japan, and even government departments such as the Ministry of Defense, are sparing no effort to exaggerate the "threat" of China and Russia. Their purpose is obvious - catering to the US in exchange for Washington making an exception to clear Japan's path toward making amendments to its pacifist constitution and breaking its commitment to the "exclusively defense-oriented" strategy. 

What is worth particular vigilance is, since the Ukraine crisis, there have been voices in Japan equating the crisis with the hypothetical scenario on Taiwan island, and the influence of such voices is growing. Influential Japanese right-wing politicians including Shinzo Abe have repeatedly claimed that Taiwan island's security challenges are Japan's concern, alarmingly tying the island's "security" with Japan and trying to mislead the Japanese public and even national policies. This is extremely ridiculous. They are very clear that as long as Japan maintains a "safe distance" from Taiwan secessionists and as long as the Japanese Self-Defense Forces are far away from the Taiwan Straits, where could the so-called danger come from?

All of the above is just the pretense of Japanese right-wing politicians. Their goal is to untie Japan militarily step by step and finally achieve the target of revising the pacifist constitution. After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, they raised their advocacy of introducing a "nuclear sharing" arrangement, and behind the move is the eagerness to revive militarism and rewrite the post-WWII international order. Leaving other issues aside, what does increasing defense spending to 2 percent of GDP within five years mean? This means that Japan's defense expenditure will double in a short period of time, which is unprecedented in peace years. Once done, Japan's defense expenditure may rank third worldwide, and it is still an "exclusively defense-oriented" country in the name.

The wishful thinking of some people in Japan is that they can carefully balance the situation and use crises one after another to militarily unbind themselves in the context of the China-US competition. Japanese right-wing still hold grudges toward WWII, and militarism has not been truly and completely cleared in the country. This has not changed until today. Not only is Washington turning a blind eye to the Japanese right wing's moves due to geopolitical short-sightedness, but there are even voices in the US urging Japan to arm itself. If so, the US is breeding evil. 

No matter how Tokyo and Washington coordinate with each other across the Pacific Ocean, it will not change the reality that their moves are incompatible with the general trend of the region. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida sent a ritual offering to the Yasukuni Shrine on Thursday, triggering strong opposition from countries including China and South Korea. In recent years, the Japanese right-wing's eagerness to revive militarism has become more and more obvious. As a result, Japan has fallen into constant discord with neighboring countries, and there has been a serious state of confrontation. This shows that whatever excuses Japan has found, they cannot become a passport to militarism. The harder Japanese right-wing forces try to break free from the shackles, the stronger counterforce they will feel. 

sábado, 23 de abril de 2022

To Fight Russia, Europe's Regimes Risk Impoverishment and Recession for Europe

04/19/2022 Ryan McMaken

https://mises.org/wire/fight-russia-europes-regimes-risk-impoverishment-and-recession-europe

European politicians are eager to be seen as "doing something" to oppose the Russian regime following Moscow's invasion of Ukraine. Most European regimes have wisely concluded—Polish and Baltic recklessness notwithstanding—that provoking a military conflict with nuclear-armed Russia is not a good idea. So, "doing something" consists primarily of trying to punish Moscow by cutting Europeans off from much-needed Russian oil and gas.

The problem is this tactic doesn't do much to deter Russia in anything other than the short term because Russian oil can turn to numerous markets outside of Europe. Most of the world, after all, has declined to participate in the US and European embargoes and trade sanctions, opting for more measured approaches instead.

By limiting energy sources for Europeans, however, Europe's regimes are likely to succeed in pushing up the cost of living for Europeans while doing little to cut off Russia's economy from global markets.

Can Europe Totally Cut Itself Off?

For understandable reasons, most European regimes have been reluctant to completely cut themselves off from Russian oil and gas. This is because Europe has become increasingly dependent on Russian natural gas as Europe's regimes have increasingly committed themselves to unreliable "renewable" energy sources. This is especially the case in Germany—Europe's largest economy—which faces a "sharp recession" if it cuts off Russian gas. There has been much talk of heavy sanctions against Russia, but this has stopped short of a full-on ban on Russian oil and gas imports.

Nonetheless, the European Parliament last week began drafting a plan for a full embargo on Russian oil and gas.

Yet, even as pressure mounts for Europe's regimes to be seen as doing more to stymie Moscow, European politicians want to proceed slowly. This, however, only gives Moscow more time to adjust logistics to transfer oil exports to other parts of the world.

If Europe were to fully ban oil immediately, this would send oil prices soaring for Europe and others. According to analysts at JP Morgan:

A full and immediate embargo would displace 4 million barrels per day of Russian oil, sending Brent crude to $185 a barrel as such a ban would leave "neither room nor time to re-route [supplies] to China, India, or other potential substitute buyers," the investment bank said in a note. That would mark a 63% surge from Brent's close of $113.16 on Monday.

This could trigger recessions across Europe's economies, and policymakers know it. Hungary, for instance, has repeatedly opposed an embargo on Russian oil out of concerns for ordinary Hungarians, who already have a standard of living well below people in wealthier countries like Germany and France. Meanwhile, French policymakers have conveniently timed an embargo to occur after the French elections this year.

Even beyond the short term, oil woes for Europe would not necessarily end, because the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has already stated that it cannot pump enough oil to replace Russian oil.

In any case, Europe does not appear to be succeeding at convincing OPEC to do much to punish or isolate Russia in oil markets. The Saudi regime has only announced increased cooperation with Russia in recent months, and the Ukraine war does not appear to be an important topic for OPEC.

This isn't to say that none of this will hurt Moscow at all. Time will be necessary to modify Russian oil markets to serve other consumers outside Europe, and this will mean declining revenues, at least in the short term. Moreover, US financial sanctions make it more difficult for Russian merchants to do business globally.

In spite of the West's claim that it's fighting some kind of war for democracy and against authoritarianism, though, it looks like the biggest beneficiaries of growing European embargoes on Russian oil are some of the world's most authoritarian regimes. Beijing will happily accept oil and gas supplies no longer sold in the West, and possibly at a discount as potential markets for Russian oil shrink in number. Moreover, if oil prices are driven up by dislocations caused by European embargoes, this is likely to benefit at least some of the oil-fueled dictators among OPEC's members.

Meanwhile, ordinary Europeans are likely to find themselves paying much more for energy—and consequently for other goods and services as well. Recession risk is also growing in Europe.

The United States to the Rescue?

As is so often the case, Europe has looked to the United States to bail it out yet again. The Biden administration has stated that it can send US liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Europe and largely replace Russia in meeting Europe's energy needs. But it's not that simple. As David Blackmon has noted at Forbes:

While committing the US to help Germany and other European nations wean themselves off of Russian natural gas seems to be a noble goal, there is just one problem: The President apparently didn't talk [to] the US LNG industry about it before he made the agreement. Reading the quotes from executives at Tellurian in the New York Times article linked here, it is apparent that they were caught off-guard by the President's announcement. "I have no idea how they are going to do this …"

In the age of covid, federal politicians have no doubt become accustomed to conjuring whatever they want through the "miracle" of printing money. But in the real world, it's still necessary to produce oil and gas (and other commodities) through actual physical production. Also, complicating matters is the fact that the oil and gas industries in the United States are still largely in private hands. This means Joe Biden can promise whatever he wants but the private sector will still have to do the work, and market incentives may not necessarily favor selling everything to Europe.

Not even money printing can make oil and gas magically appear on the other side of the Atlantic.

Ultimately, the frenzy of sanctions and embargoes pursued by "the West" may do little more than raising the cost of living for its own residents. Even worse are the side effects of these sanctions for poorer countries in Africa and Asia, many of which need Russian grain and Russian oil for their residents to live above subsistence levels.

These policies will make life more difficult for ordinary innocent people worldwide while failing to actually end the war in Ukraine. But that's a price wealthy men like Biden and Emmanuel Macron are apparently willing to pay.

viernes, 22 de abril de 2022

 AMLO en su encrucijada

O bien, el presidente López Obrador percibe que se necesita un ambiente propicio al diálogo, o bien se lanza con todo para tratar de destruir a quienes considera sus adversarios políticos.

Enrique Quintana

abril 22, 2022 |

https://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/opinion/enrique-quintana/

Estamos en un cruce de caminos en el sexenio del presidente López Obrador.

Por un lado, pareciera que en ciertos momentos el presidente López Obrador adquiere conciencia de la necesidad de dialogar y negociar.

Ha sido el caso del tema de los esquemas de autoabasto en materia eléctrica o bien de los reclamos respecto a los impactos ambientales del tramo 5 del Tren Maya.

Pero, en poco tiempo pareciera que cambia sus perspectivas y deja ver que para él, el diálogo significa que los demás lo escuchen.

Esta inclinación se refleja también en su respaldo a la campaña de denuncia de los diputados que votaron en contra de la reforma constitucional en materia eléctrica que él propuso.

Se trata de una de las campañas de linchamiento más graves que se hayan lanzado en México en los últimos años y representa una amenaza para la integridad física de los legisladores.

Simplemente por el hecho de que aparezca el nombre y la imagen de los legisladores que votaron en contra, se arriesga a que seguidores violentos de Morena o del presidente, pasen de las palabras a las manos en su ataque a quienes difieren de él.

Sin embargo, el presidente López Obrador le da cuerda a los más radicales de su partido y muchos políticos y funcionarios hacen segunda y justifican el linchamiento con los argumentos más absurdos que se puedan imaginar.

Pareciera, hasta ahora, que el único sensato de la 4T, que ha llamado públicamente a detener ese ambiente ha sido el senador Ricardo Monreal. Y también Marcelo Ebrard se ha hecho notar por no haberse unido al coro.

Aunque estamos todavía muy lejos del proceso electoral de 2024, lo que ahora observamos es un adelanto de cómo puede ser el ambiente de la contienda política que viene.

Aunque pueda plantearse que se trata de un asunto político ideológico, en realidad estamos en una disyuntiva que puede marcar en buena medida el clima de los últimos dos años y medio de la actual administración.

O bien, el presidente López Obrador percibe que se necesita un ambiente propicio al diálogo y a la búsqueda de negociación, o bien se lanza con todo para tratar de destruir a quienes considera sus adversarios políticos, arropado por radicales e incondicionales.

En cualquier lugar del mundo en el que desde el poder se genera una campaña de odio contra quienes piensan diferente, no se puede concluir sino que estamos frente a un gobierno autoritario.

En este caso, no se trata de una lucha ideológica sino del intento de que, a través de la amenaza y del temor se logre deshacer la unidad de la oposición, que logró que la reforma constitucional en materia eléctrica no prosperara.

Sin embargo, los legisladores no son el único objetivo de la denuncia del presidente y sus partidarios.

Es relativamente sencillo que Morena extienda la campaña en otros ámbitos, en donde se incluyan integrantes de la sociedad civil, empresarios y comunicadores, es decir, a todos aquellos que puedan tener un impacto en la opinión pública.

No sé si el presidente de la República sea consciente del nivel al que está llevando una eventual confrontación, ni tampoco de las consecuencias económicas, políticas y financieras que este hecho pueda traer consigo.

Un ambiente de enfrentamiento no se limita a la arena partidista. Genera desconfianza e incertidumbre en el ámbito económico y eventualmente también en el terreno financiero.

La sociedad mexicana, a finales del siglo XX, enfrentó dos momentos en los que el encono social acabó traduciéndose en crisis financiera: en 1976 y 1982.

La peor amenaza para el país es que repitamos un escenario así.

Ojalá la cordura acabe imponiéndose sobre el odio y la ambición.

miércoles, 20 de abril de 2022

 We Want YOU to Keep The War Going

by Connor Freeman | Apr 19, 2022

https://libertarianinstitute.org/articles/we-want-you-to-keep-the-war-going/

The American people are allowing their blood-soaked rulers in Washington to callously prolong the war in Ukraine. The complicit media has propagandized and lied to the American people into insisting Washington double down on all their worst aggressions. And so continues the hawks’ reckless gamble on World War 3 to spite President Vladimir Putin and – once and for all – destroy Russia. 

President Joe Biden’s administration and other hawks do not want the war in Ukraine to end. They are not alone, some NATO member states prefer to see the war drag on indefinitely as well. As Libertarian Institute news editors Kyle Anzalone and Will Porter wrote last week, 

As the Russian invasion of Ukraine grinds on and the two sides continue negotiations, the Washington Post reports that some NATO states prefer Ukrainians continue “fighting and dying” over “a peace that comes too early,” rejecting any outcome that could be sold as a “victory” for Moscow.

Though Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly acknowledged that his country will not join the NATO alliance in recent weeks, some members are loath for Kiev to accept that key Russian demand, according to officials and diplomats cited by the Post.

“Even a Ukrainian vow not to join NATO could be a concern to some neighbors,” the outlet reported. “That leads to an awkward reality: For some in NATO, it’s better for the Ukrainians to keep fighting, and dying, than to achieve a peace that comes too early or at too high a cost to Kyiv and the rest of Europe.” 

The truth is “some in NATO” are not concerned with “a peace” that comes “at too high a cost” to Kiev or Ukraine, rather they fear a “peace” that comes at too low a cost for Moscow and Russia

Shortly after the aforementioned Washington Post article was published, Estonia’s Prime Minister Kaja Kallas warned against “peace at any price.” This view is shared by the European Union and the United States. As Dave DeCamp, news editor at Antiwar.com, reports,

Echoing this sentiment, Josep Borrell, the EU’s foreign policy chief, said how the war ends matters.

“We want it to end as soon as possible, but not in any way,” Borrel said. “Because if we’re going to have a destroyed country that has been dismembered territorially and neutralized, with millions of people in exile, and millions of people dead, then no, we don’t want this war to end like this.” He said this is why Europe must “continue arming Ukraine … More weapons, that is what the Ukrainians expect of us.”

The Biden administration has shown no interest in pushing for a diplomatic solution to end the war. The last time Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov was on February 15, and President Biden hasn’t attempted to hold talks with Putin. Instead, Biden has declared that Putin “cannot remain in power,” and the US has been pouring weapons into Ukraine.

But it is not simply that the U.S., EU, and NATO want to maintain the status quo. In fact, they are seeking to involve themselves in the war far more deeply and dangerously. The U.S. has provided Kiev with more than $2.5 billion in military aid since the war began, adding new packages almost every week. Shipments have largely consisted of Javelin anti-tank missiles, a variety of armed drones, and Stinger missiles. 

Biden recently gaffed and revealed that U.S. troops are training Ukrainian forces in Poland. At a subsequent meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Brussels, Liz Truss, the U.K’s top diplomat, made clear the alliance members have decided to begin training the Ukrainians to use NATO arms. The goal is to ensure Ukraine is no longer restricted to primarily using old Soviet-era weapons. 

Though the Russians have warned that weapons shipments are legitimate targets, it was also agreed that the allies should send Ukraine “new and heavier” armaments. Lithuania’s Defense Chief has unveiled a plan to train Kiev’s military to use said new weapons. At this point, it is unclear if, under Vilnius’ plan, U.S. troops will be participating. In Mississippi, a program to train Ukrainian forces in Naval and drone warfare has only just concluded.

Slovakia is in discussions with NATO about sending its MiG-29 warplanes to Ukraine, Bratislava desires to replace the fighter jets with American F-16s it has ordered. In another escalation, the Czech Republic has given Ukraine some Soviet tanks. As the Wall Street Journal reported

So far, the Czech Republic has sent slightly more than a dozen modernized, Soviet-designed T-72M tanks, said Czech Deputy Defense Minister Tomáš Kopečný and another defense ministry official. The Central European country has also sent howitzer artillery pieces and BMP-1 amphibious tracked infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine, officials said.

The report says Bratislava and Prague are in talks regarding the use of their military-industrial facilities to repair myriad Ukrainian tanks, vehicles, and other arms, as well as those captured from the Russians during the war. 

Also in the works is a massive NATO build-up in Eastern Europe on Russia’s borders to repel a supposed invasion. Absurdly, the idea is to mount forces sufficient to win a war with Russia. This provocation will only be more neurologic for Moscow, making nuclear war increasingly likely. 

There are currently 100,000 U.S. troops in Europe, the most since 2005, that number is expected to grow substantially higher. New battlegroups are being formed near Russia and top U.S. military officials have encouraged NATO members to build more permanent bases where American forces will be regularly rotated. 

Biden recently announced his $813 billion military budget for 2023, this will be the highest “defense” bill the country has ever seen. 

The war and increased defense spending among European allies have been a dream come true for the military-industrial complex. Indeed, the Pentagon has just hosted the leaders of the top eight arms manufacturers for a meeting regarding their ability to continue supplying weapons if this war “lasts years.” 

Again, the interests of the American people, the Ukrainians, the Russians, the world economy, and the future of humanity is being subordinated to the worst priorities of the American Deep State.

Lloyd Austin, Pentagon chief, and former Raytheon board member told the Senate Armed Services Committee that the U.S. is providing intelligence to Ukraine’s military for operations against the Russians in the eastern Donbas region. This is where the breakaway republics are located. America’s coup government in Kiev launched a war against these restive ethnic Russian populations. This was after they refused to be ruled by Washington’s puppets in the Nazi-infested, anti-Russian regime. 

Kiev’s war, which began eight years ago, led to more than 14,000 people killed. By far, most civilian casualties were inside territory held by the Russian-backed separatists. In February, when Putin announced his “special military operation” he said it was necessary to repel aggression against the people of the Donbas, whose independence he had just officially recognized.

America’s Senate has passed bills that make war with Russia that much more inevitable, including banning Russian energy imports, suspending normal trade relations with Russia as well as Belarus, and reviving the Lend-Lease program to arm Ukraine for the conflict’s duration. 

In all three cases, there were no dissenters. As journalist Michael Tracey tweeted

Seems like it hasn’t gotten enough attention that the US Senate just revived the “lend-lease” program — after 75 years — for Ukraine. Every senator supported it, from Bernie Sanders to Rand Paul. As you may be aware, this program was the precursor to US entry into World War II.

Beyond that, the legislation appears to be designed to preclude a negotiated settlement between Kiev and Moscow. The bill’s summary says that this program will go on until “the conflict beginning with Russia’s annexation of the Crimea region of Ukraine in 2014 has ceased, and Russia has reduced its military force on Ukraine’s eastern border to the levels maintained prior to March 1, 2021.” 

For hundreds of years, Russia has maintained its Black Sea fleet at Sevastopol in Crimea. Moscow has controlled the peninsula militarily since the 2014 coup when the port was threatened. Russia is never giving up Crimea, Hitler’s forces discovered this during the second World War. Additionally, before launching his invasion, Putin ordered peacekeepers to the Donbas to protect the ethnic Russians. Moscow will not abandon that region that has been attacked by Ukraine’s Neo Nazis and which, prior to Putin’s invasion, was populated with hundreds of thousands of Russian citizens.  

Putin’s main demands are Ukrainian neutrality, as well as Kiev’s recognition of both the Donbas Republics’ independence and Russia’s control of Crimea. These are reasonable requests. Even Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky has now admitted he was told by NATO, in no uncertain terms, that alliance membership will never happen. The preverbal door was left only ostensibly open to spite, or more likely provoke, Putin and Moscow. 

Washington should be leading the diplomatic efforts to resolve the crisis they have created by mercilessly exploiting the Ukrainians as cannon fodder and with decades of aggressive, anti-Russian policies. Most regrettably, instead of making peace its mission, the U.S. seems intent on having its protracted proxy war.

But the Russians cannot lose this current war any more than the United States could lose a war with Mexico. The only way for Kiev to “beat back the Russians,” is for the U.S. and NATO to commit to a forever war. To arm, train, fund, aid, support, and sustain a long-term, bloody insurgency that goes on for years and years

Hillary Clinton giddily likened this strategy to the CIA’s decade-long, 1980s dirty war backing the Afghan Mujahideen, and foreign Jihadist fighters like Osama Bin Laden, against the Soviet Union’s occupation.

There is a strong case to be made that Washington goaded Putin into launching this current war. Likewise, the Soviets’ invasion at the end of 1979 was arguably provoked by President Jimmy Carter, Zbigniew Brzezinski, and the boys at Langley. At least they like to think so. Operation Cyclone, as it was called, killed some 15,000 Soviet soldiers and at least one million Afghans. 

For the hawks, the former number, the Soviet Union’s subsequent fall, and the profound pain inflicted on Moscow, giving the USSR “its Vietnam war,” are all that matters. 

As for the million dead, the following 30 years of conflict in Afghanistan, 20 years of America’s brutal, multi-trillion-dollar, post 9/11 wars and occupations which – directly or indirectly – killed millions, including hundreds of thousands of Afghans… we think the price is worth it

Clinton barely acknowledges some “other unintended consequences.” 

But after murdering millions in the Vietnam War and crashing the U.S. economy, this was Uncle Sam’s proud victory. 

In light of America’s broken economy, the previously mentioned and more recent failures and disasters, Uncle Sam desires another such victory. However, replicating the Cyclone strategy on NATO and Russia’s borders as the hawks declared is the plan, well before Putin’s invasion, is a recipe for World War 3.