Iconos

Iconos
Zapata

lunes, 31 de octubre de 2022

Claro que hay diálogo con la delincuencia

No descartemos que un diálogo con los delincuentes, genuinamente enfocado en la pacificación, pueda tener lugar en México en algún momento, dice Eduardo Guerrero Gutiérrez.

Eduardo Guerrero Gutiérrez

octubre 31, 2022

https://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/opinion/eduardo-guerrero-gutierrez/2022/10/31/claro-que-hay-dialogo-con-la-delincuencia/

La semana pasada Manuel Espino dio de qué hablar. En su intervención durante un foro en el Senado se refirió a un planteamiento para dialogar y llegar a acuerdos con grupos criminales. Según dijo, este planteamiento lo hizo –o lo insinuó al menos– al Presidente, al secretario de Gobernación y a la secretaria de Seguridad. Espino dice que no quiere ser indiscreto, aunque sí hizo algunas observaciones reveladoras. Por ejemplo, que considera que tal vez no se puedan evitar los pleitos entre grupos, pero que al menos se debe buscar trasladarlos a lugares, como la selva, donde no haya medios de comunicación. Espino tampoco cree que sea buena idea congelar cuentas e intentar quitarles el dinero a los grupos criminales. Afirmó que ya buscó un acercamiento con cinco grupos y que tuvo respuesta de dos.

AMLO negó que Manuel Espino le hubiera hecho planteamiento alguno sobre un posible diálogo con grupos criminales. Por otra parte, el secretario de Gobernación, Adán Augusto López, reconoció que Espino, cuando todavía era comisionado del Servicio de Protección Federal, sí le presentó el planteamiento; también apuntó que dejó el cargo dos semanas después de hacerlo. La política es un juego de simulaciones, donde hay cosas que se hacen, pero no se dicen. Es raro que un político hable con apertura sobre un tema que generalmente se evita en público –sobre todo un político como Manuel Espino, quien, antes de su incursión en la 4T, tuvo una larga trayectoria en el PAN, llegando a ser presidente nacional de dicho partido–.

Manuel Espino tiene razón en algo: no debería ser en sí escandaloso que el gobierno dialogue o acuerde cosas con la delincuencia. También tiene razón en que, en otros países, la comunicación entre autoridades y delincuentes ha sido una pieza clave para la pacificación. Por ejemplo, algunas de las intervenciones más exitosas para reducir la violencia pandilleril en Estados Unidos inician con una reunión, donde los mandos policiales hablan con las pandillas sobre la necesidad de detener el uso de armas de fuego (y les dan a conocer algunas de las consecuencias que pueden esperar si persisten en su uso).

De hecho, mantener algún canal de comunicación entre las autoridades y el crimen organizado es casi indispensable. Sin embargo, este diálogo, para beneficiar al interés público, no puede ser un diálogo entre iguales. Tiene que partir de una condición de supremacía incuestionable por parte del Estado. Desafortunadamente, en muchas circunstancias, se trata de una condición que no se cumple en México.

Durante su intervención en el Senado, Espino hizo referencia a la situación que se vive en Tamazula, un municipio de Durango, su estado natal. Ahí, según refirió, los delincuentes (que con toda seguridad están con el Cártel de Sinaloa) dominan la política, las instituciones municipales y hasta la economía. Hizo notar que, en su opinión, en un lugar así, no queda de otra que acordar con ellos. El problema es que, en un municipio como el que describió Manuel Espino (que también podría ser uno de varios municipios de Michoacán, de Morelos o de Guerrero), cualquier intento de diálogo sólo puede terminar en una complicidad o capitulación del gobierno hacia los criminales.

Eso es precisamente lo que pasa a menudo, y lo que resulta vergonzoso o inconfesable. Como lo han revelado varios de los documentos que filtró el colectivo Guacamaya, y como en realidad ya sabíamos desde siempre, las autoridades en México tienen una comunicación sumamente fluida con la delincuencia: intercambian favores y hacen negocios juntos. Los criminales frecuentemente consiguen el compromiso de que su gente no será molestada por la policía a la hora de cometer ciertos delitos. Los canales de comunicación existen. Sin embargo, rara vez se han usado con el objetivo de conseguir un desarme o una pacificación. Incluso si se busca un acuerdo de este tipo (como se filtró que intentó el gobernador de San Luis Potosí para lograr que el CJNG, el Cártel del Noreste y Los Alemanes acordarán el libre tránsito en los territorios bajo su control), lo más probable, en un contexto de debilidad de la autoridad, es que se rompa rápidamente.

No descartemos que un diálogo con los delincuentes, genuinamente enfocado en la pacificación, pueda tener lugar en México en algún momento. Sin embargo, primero es necesario volver a trazar ciertos límites de lo que es inaceptable (empezando por la intervención directa de la delincuencia en las campañas electorales o los asesinatos de policías). Sólo desde la base de que el gobierno no está controlado ni sometido a los delincuentes, sería fructífero tener una conversación.

domingo, 30 de octubre de 2022

Brasil: un domingo decisivo

Eric Nepomuceno

https://www.jornada.com.mx/2022/10/30/politica/016a1pol

Las elecciones presidenciales de este domingo en Brasil tienen características e importancia inéditas en la historia.

Los contendientes son el ex presidente de izquierda Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, del Partido de los Trabajadores (PT), y el actual mandatario, el ultraderechista Jair Bolsonaro, del Partido Liberal, que de liberal tiene el nombre y nada más.

Todos los sondeos, al unísono, señalan a Lula como favorito. Y este punto señala el primer aspecto inédito del pleito: desde que en 1997 el entonces presidente Fernando Henrique Cardoso logró que se aprobara en el Congreso el proyecto de ley que establecía la relección, todos los mandatarios que se presentaron a las urnas para permanecer en el puesto aparecieron en los sondeos como favoritos y salieron victoriosos en la votación final.

También es desconocida una disputa electoral tan radicalmente polarizada. Nunca antes en la historia el país llegó a una elección presidencial dividido prácticamente por la mitad.

Acorde con los últimos sondeos, Lula era el favorito para 53 por ciento de los electores, y para el restante 47 por ciento, el ultraderechista Bolsonaro.

Es verdad que en 2014 Dilma Rousseff, del mismo PT de Lula, se religió por una diferencia pequeña frente al derechista Aécio Neves, 51.64 por ciento frente a 48.36 por ciento.

Pero había otros partidos de diferentes tendencias que no se aliaron a ninguno de los dos, y el panorama fue menos polarizado que ahora.

Un detalle que llamó la atención a lo largo de toda la campaña electoral, y que se venía arrastrando desde hace mucho tiempo, fue la tremenda agresividad del presidente Jair Bolsonaro y su pandilla contra Lula. Una agresividad, dicho sea de paso, cargada de mentiras y acusaciones absoluta e irremediablemente falsas, esparcidas por las redes sociales controladas por uno de sus hijos, Carlos, el único caso de concejal nacional que en lugar de ocupar su puesto en la Cámara Municipal de Río de Janeiro, se trasladó a Brasilia, a más de mil kilómetros de distancia, justamente para controlar el llamado despacho del odio.

La campaña de Lula optó, luego de algún tiempo, por contestar en el mismo tono. Y con eso, otra vez algo inédito: jamás, en toda la historia de la nación, hubo un intercambio de agresiones en un tono tan elevado.

Jair Bolsonaro pasó todo el tiempo, sin pausa, disparando falsas acusaciones sobre el sistema electoral brasileño. Amenazó con no reconocer el resultado en caso de sufrir una derrota. Insinuó que contaba con el respaldo de las fuerzas armadas para dar un golpe militar si en las urnas se registrase un resultado negativo para sus ambiciones.

Al ver que no tenía respaldo entre los uniformados en activo, decidió incentivar sus seguidores más radicalizados para salir a las calles a defender la democracia. Con ello despertó el temor, en gobernadores y alcaldes, de actos de violencia, y perdió espacio entre los que se decían indecisos sobre su voto.

En la noche del viernes pasado, luego de un debate transmitido por televisión y acompañado por millones de electores, el presidente finalmente, expresó algo inesperado: aseguró que reconocerá al ganador, en caso de que sea derrotado.

Y así terminó la disputa electoral más importante desde el retorno de la democracia en 1985, y la más agresiva y radicalizada: con un país que se reveló dividido como nunca y con una extrema derecha mucho más amplia y sólida como jamás se llegó a pensar que pudiera existir.

Falta ver si se confirman todas las previsiones y Lula es anunciado como vencedor, qué hará Jair Bolsonaro de aquí hasta el primer día de 2023, cuando, como determina la Constitución, deberá entregar el cargo.

Y luego quedará otra duda flotando en el aire: ¿será juzgado por las más de 50 denuncias de crímenes cometidos durante su mandato? ¿Se irá a la cárcel? ¿Se exiliará en alguna de las naciones gobernada por ultraderechistas amigos?

Una tercera duda planea en el horizonte: ¿Cómo recuperar lo que fue destrozado a lo largo de cuatro años por el peor y más abyecto presidente de la historia de Brasil?

sábado, 29 de octubre de 2022

 Putin Blames West for Killing Ukraine Peace Deal in March

Several officials from various nations have said Washington and London kept Zelensky from signing an agreement with Putin in the early days of the war

by Kyle Anzalone Posted on October 28, 2022

https://news.antiwar.com/2022/10/28/putin-blames-west-for-killing-ukraine-peace-deal-in-march/

Russian President Vladimir Putin believes Kiev was unwilling to accept a peace deal in March because of pressure from Washington. Putin joins a growing list of sources who say the war nearly ended after a month, but Western influence prodded Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to keep fighting.

Kremlin Spokesperson Dimitry Peskov said, “[a]t the same time, [Putin] emphasized that, well, it is obvious that such a reluctance to negotiate and a rejection of already agreed understandings occurred clearly by decree. By decree of Washington, this is quite obvious.”

In March, Turkey hosted diplomats from Ukraine and Russia for talks. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said the two sides almost reached an agreement that would lead to a ceasefire and a withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine. However, talks fell apart shortly after.

On April 5th, the Washington Post reported that some NATO members preferred a protracted war to weaken Russia. "That leads to an awkward reality: For some in NATO, it’s better for the Ukrainians to keep fighting, and dying, than to achieve a peace that comes too early or at too high a cost to Kyiv and the rest of Europe," the outlet reported. Later that month, while meeting with Zelensky in Kiev, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said one of Washington’s goals was "to see Russia weakened."

Commenting on the breakdown of talks, Cavusoglu blamed NATO members "who want this war to continue." "But, following the NATO foreign ministers’ meeting, it was the impression that… there are those within the NATO member states that want the war to continue, let the war continue and Russia gets weaker. They don’t care much about the situation in Ukraine," Turkey’s top diplomat added.

In May, Ukrayinska Pravda reported that then-UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson traveled to Kiev and pressured Zelensky not to accept the proposal that had been brokered by Turkey. "Johnson brought two simple messages to Kyiv. The first is that Putin is a war criminal; he should be pressured, not negotiated with. And the second is that even if Ukraine is ready to sign some agreements on guarantees with Putin, they are not," the outlet reported.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Kiev had made a proposal at the Istanbul talks that was acceptable to Moscow. "These negotiations at some point at the end of March … led to a result that gave hope to all of us, thanks to the fact that the Ukrainian side for the first time put on paper a position that suited us as a basis for work," Lavrov said.

Further confirmation that the March agreement negotiated in Istanbul nearly resulted in a Russian withdrawal comes courtesy of Washington. In Foreign Affairs, Fiona Hill wrote, "Russian and Ukrainian negotiators appeared to have tentatively agreed on the outlines of a negotiated interim settlement. Russia would withdraw to its position on February 23, when it controlled part of the Donbas region and all of Crimea, and in exchange, Ukraine would promise not to seek NATO membership and instead receive security guarantees from a number of countries."

Hill, the former Senior Director for Europe and Russia on the U.S. National Security Council, accused Russia of systematically attacking America’s democratic institutions in 2016. At Donald Trump’s first impeachment, she testified that it was Russia’s goal to weaken the US.

Kyle Anzalone is the opinion editor of Antiwar.com, news editor of the Libertarian Institute, and co-host of Conflicts of Interest.

viernes, 28 de octubre de 2022

 EL PROYECTO DE LÓPEZ OBRADOR PARA 2024

El presidente Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) ya dio por terminada su “obra transformadora”, en vista de que se ha embarcado en su proyecto político-electoral para las elecciones federales del 2024.

Su principal objetivo es que su movimiento político, que no partido, el Movimiento de Regeneración Nacional (Morena), junto con sus aliados del Partido del Trabajo (PT), Verde Ecologista (PVEM) y Encuentro Solidario (ES) ganen la presidencia de la República en el 2024, mantengan la mayoría en el Congreso -de preferencia logren la mayoría calificada- y casi todas las gubernaturas (ahora detentan 20 de 32).

Así, lo fundamental ahora es mantener el poder, a como dé lugar (así sea desapareciendo al Instituto Nacional Electoral)[1]. Los problemas de la inseguridad y la violencia, la falta de crecimiento económico e inflación; de una economía basada en el subempleo y en empleos formales muy mal pagados; de emigración de decenas de miles de mexicanos a Estados Unidos: de deterioro ambiental imparable, de inveterada corrupción e impunidad; son dejados a un lado, minimizados y hasta ridiculizados por el presidente y su gabinete. Lo único que importa ahora es asegurar un amplio frente político-económico-social y hasta criminal[2] que logre los triunfos electorales en 2023 en dos gubernaturas, y en el 2024 en las elecciones federales y en 9 gubernaturas más, para consolidar el poder del actual grupo gobernante.

Así, AMLO espera dejar como candidata a la presidencia a su favorita, la jefa de gobierno de la ciudad de México Claudia Sheinbaum, para lo cual requiere, primero, que su movimiento y aliados se comprometan con esa candidatura, para lo cual ha estado acercando a la jefa de gobierno a actores políticos (gobernadores, legisladores) y económicos (grandes empresarios, como Carlos Slim), para que se establezcan alianzas con ella.

Y segundo, está socavando las ambiciones de otros precandidatos, como el senador Ricardo Monreal, a quien ha puesto a pelear con la gobernadora de Campeche, Layda Sansores (aliada de Sheinbaum), acerca de las ilegales intrusiones en las comunicaciones privadas del senador, con lo que lo mantendrá desgastado y ocupado un tiempo, mientras el presidente sigue consolidando la candidatura de su preferida.

Por lo que respecta al canciller Marcelo Ebrard, fuera de algunos amarres con empresarios, no cuenta con base social propia, y su responsabilidad en materia internacional lo mantiene continuamente fuera del país, con lo que poco puede hacer para impulsar su candidatura internamente.

El secretario de Gobernación, Adán Augusto López, hace lo que el presidente le ordena, que es aparentar que compite por la candidatura, pero en realidad su papel es alinear a todos los gobernadores y grupos políticos del oficialismo tras el presidente, quien en su momento dará la orden de apoyar incondicionalmente la candidatura de Sheinbaum.

El problema lo va a tener Sheinbaum para el 2024, pues todos esos apoyos esperan ser retribuidos con puestos en el gabinete, en el Congreso federal, en las gubernaturas, legislaturas locales, presidencias municipales, y ya de perdida en embajadas y consulados. Además, de que se establezcan compromisos económicos con los grupos y corporativos que den su apoyo a Sheinbaum, a través de contratos y concesiones; los militares y marinos exigirán que cuando menos se les respete el enorme poder que han acumulado en el gobierno de AMLO, a instancias del propio presidente (227 funciones que no tienen que ver con las originales planteadas en la Constitución), así como el enorme presupuesto que ya manejan: los cárteles “aliados” del gobierno mantendrán su exigencia de impunidad, protección para sus actividades y combate por parte del gobierno a los grupos enemigos del crimen organizado; y por supuesto, el gobierno y las grandes empresas de Estados Unidos, no esperarán menos que el continuo vasallaje de México a las directrices de Washington en materia comercial, de inversiones (especialmente en materia de energía), financiera, de seguridad, laboral, ambiental y hasta educativo-cultural.

Sheinbaum también tendrá que pagar la lealtad de Ebrard y López Hernández (suponiendo que Monreal finalmente salga de Morena) con posiciones para ellos y sus equipos; mantener los programas clientelares para 25 millones de personas, que constituyen las bases sociales del oficialismo; y también, tendrá que apaciguar a la siempre ambiciosa y demandante comunidad empresarial judía, que querrá sacar “raja” del hecho de que Sheinbaum es judía-mexicana.

Demasiados compromisos y una “cobija” presupuestal y política muy pequeña para atenderlos; además de la falta de experiencia y de eficiencia que ha demostrado Sheinbaum en sus diferentes puestos públicos.

jueves, 27 de octubre de 2022

Progressives' Pathetic Ukraine Flip-Flop

Michael Tracey

October 25, 2022

https://compactmag.com/article/progressives-pathetic-ukraine-flip-flop

In an episode that could have hardly been more emblematic of the present state of US left-liberalism, the Congressional Progressive Caucus published, retracted within fewer than 24 hours, a joint letter that putatively called on President Biden to seek a diplomatic resolution to the war between Russia and Ukraine.

Among the many glacier-sized ironies associated with this episode is the fact that even if the letter had just been left to stand, it would have been essentially meaningless. The furor was set off when The Washington Post described it as a demand by House progressives for a “dramatic shift” in Ukraine policy. Few seemed to have actually read the letter before emoting about it. Those who did would have quickly realized that the letter—again, pre-retraction—was effectively an endorsement of the policy status quo. Signatories reaffirmed their enduring support for the “military and economic support the United States has provided to Ukraine,” while merely “urging” that this “support” be “paired” with a “proactive diplomatic push.”

Note that “urging” isn’t the same as “taking actual legislative action to compel,” something that the letter’s signatories indicated zero desire to do, despite the vast array of legislative mechanisms potentially at their disposal to exert influence on Ukraine policy. But that’s the thing: as Progressive Caucus chairwoman Pramila Jayapal desperately rushed to clarify, if one simply looks at the text, “nothing in the letter advocates for a change” in the current US policy of “unequivocal commitment to supporting Ukraine”—i.e., the whole suite of appropriations and authorities that have been granted to Biden so he can unilaterally run the war effort.

Despite its fundamental inconsequentiality, the letter may have given signatories the ability to claim they were “pushing” for diplomacy, even if this “pushing” amounted to little more than a toothless, face-covering p.r. maneuver. Still, it was something they could perhaps cite to constituents who might wonder what they are doing about Biden’s warning that nuclear armageddon is fast approaching.

Rep. Mark Pocan reassured a worried supporter that the letter he signed was most certainly not about “criticizing Biden” for his war-making efforts because Pocan has long “supported the efforts” and “will continue” to do so. The letter was conceived as a statement “defending the president's approach,” Pocan later added, “rather than altering course.” In other words, Pocan expressly disclaimed any intent to take substantive legislative action with regard to Ukraine policy, such as, theoretically, conditioning continued provision of “aid” to Ukraine on the Biden administration setting forth some concrete plan for diplomatic engagement. By all accounts, the letter was intended by signatories as a restatement of their commitment to indefinitely supporting Ukraine appropriations, with a few polite suggestions thrown in for Biden to ignore at will.

The toothlessness of the letter is all the more glaring because back in May, the very same Progressive Caucus concluded that “logistical support and intelligence sharing” by the United States for a different war constitutes “unauthorized US military involvement,” and introduced a War Powers Resolution to restrict Biden’s ability to continue facilitating that “involvement.” This had to do with Saudi Arabia’s war in Yemen, however, not Ukraine. It’s become increasingly permissible to criticize Riyadh in harsh terms after decades of bipartisan consensus, even as Ukraine policy has undergone the opposite trend. Naturally, the Saudi resolution has also gone nowhere in the months since it was introduced, but at least it was a tangible invocation of Congress’ authority to exert oversight in relation to foreign policy. Apparently lost on all involved is that the current US military intervention in Ukraine fits the same criteria progressives denounced with respect to Yemen, and would therefore be equivalently “unauthorized.” But the progressives would never dream of speaking about US policy in Ukraine in such a manner.

Even before the letter was retracted Tuesday afternoon, White House spokesman John Kirby verified its fundamental pointlessness when he condescendingly informed the signatories that he “appreciates their very thoughtful concerns.” However, Kirby advised, they should be aware it remains US policy that “Zelensky gets to determine because it’s his country, what success looks like and when to negotiate.” That Washington has dispersed approximately $9 billion in “direct budgetary support” to Ukraine for the maintenance of the most basic government services, such as paying public-employee salaries and pensions, apparently has no bearing on Zelensky’s eternal “sovereignty” to make relevant governmental decisions.

Also before the letter was officially retracted, signatory Rep. Mark Takano swiftly mobilized to proclaim that he “will continue to support appropriations to aid Ukrainian self-determination,” because “only Ukrainians have a right to determine the terms by which this war ends.” Increasingly, the top officials of the Ukrainian government are leaving no ambiguity whatsoever about those “terms.” In an address on Oct. 24 to mark the eight-month anniversary of the war’s start, Volodymyr Zelensky declared, “All of Ukraine will be free.” By this, he specified that he was referring to not just “Donbas, Kharkiv Oblast, Kherson,” but also “Zaporizhzhia Oblast and Crimea, as well.”

Hence, the “terms” to which the Progressive Caucus has now bound itself would require accepting a scenario few considered plausible when the invasion was first launched in February—that US intervention would eventually be marshaled so far as to enable a full-fledged Ukrainian military offensive in Crimea. This had once been seen as among the scenarios whereby Vladimir Putin could decide Russian territory was under “existential threat” and use nuclear weapons in response.

Any legislator who genuinely wants to effectuate a shift in current US policy on Ukraine could demonstrate this by doing something novel: taking legislative action. But almost no member of Congress is really doing this. And yes, that includes Republicans, some of whom have marginally modified their rhetorical posture in recent months by professing superficial partisan criticisms of Biden’s war management. In substantive policy terms, though, they give scant indication they would ultimately do anything of significance to alter the status quo.

Hearts across DC went aflutter when Kevin McCarthy, the potentially incoming speaker of the House, vaguely suggested that Republicans would not give Biden a “blank check” on further Ukraine appropriations if the party wins a majority next month. At the same time, McCarthy is going around the country delivering stump speeches in which he elaborately expounds on his theory that Putin is the modern-day Hitler. The idea that McCarthy, in conjunction with Sen. Mitch McConnell, would suddenly cease appropriations for the Ukraine war effort is not sustained by any real evidence. Vaguely gesturing against the idea of a “blank check” is not some iron-clad resolution to oppose writing a check of any kind. Adding another layer of irony to the whole Progressive Caucus saga, the progressives cited McCarthy’s nonexistent repudiation of Ukraine appropriations as a factor compelling them to retract the letter and announce an even more radicalized, hard-line stance on the war. Bipartisan fakery piled on top of bipartisan fakery.

Speaking of bipartisanship, Sens. Jack Reed and James Inhofe recently slipped a gloriously bipartisan amendment into the forthcoming National Defense Appropriations bill that would grant the Defense Department “emergency” procurement powers, designed for “wartime,” so contracts can be more expeditiously brokered with the weapons manufacturers to drastically accelerate the provision of munitions to Ukraine (and, simultaneously, Taiwan). This move has the quality of being actual, tangible legislative action, so it’s not likely that the House progressives have even heard about it, and even less likely that they would fathom taking legislative action of their own to counter it. Because, as they have now gone out of their way to make abundantly clear, they are enthusiastic backers of the current policy mix.

“Progressives tend to be among the most fervid backers of this ... military intervention.”

Jamie Raskin, the House Progressive Caucus member who was presumably the most horrified to find his name had been attached to the excessively pro-diplomacy letter, soon after released a statement that elucidates the moral and political prism through which progressives are being instructed to view the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Raskin reproaches “progressive and liberal people” who exhibit the “colonialist reflex” whereupon they would seek to exert any influence at all over US policy in Ukraine. What all right-minded progressives must understand, Raskin exhorts, is that Moscow is a “world center of antifeminist, antigay, anti-trans hatred, as well as the homeland of replacement theory for export. In supporting Ukraine, we are opposing these fascist views, and supporting the urgent principles of democratic pluralism.” That the current government of Ukraine embodies “the urgent principles of democratic pluralism” is demonstrated, per Raskin, by the fact that “a woman serves as deputy minister of defense” and “sexual minorities are represented within the Ukrainian armed forces.” If there is a more beautifully distilled encapsulation of why self-proclaimed progressives tend to be among the most fervid backers of this particular US military intervention, no one has yet produced it.

In one sense, it may be for the best that the Progressive Caucus ensnared itself in this farcical letter-retracting episode. Pursuant to the melodramatic press release in which they “hereby withdraw” the letter, the progressives explicitly professed their staunch opposition to diplomacy, declaring that diplomacy could only be conceivably entertained “after Ukrainian victory.” This means diplomacy is to be outright abandoned as a method for achieving any cessation in hostilities—replaced with a tenacious, uncompromising zeal to inflict total military defeat on Russia. As such, the progressives are also fully on board with whatever hard-line, maximalist war objective Zelensky and his government officials demand next. (One of Zelensky’s top advisers, Andrii Yermak, recently dismissed the possibility of negotiations with Moscow on the ground that his would-be Russian colleagues are “cavemen” who “only understand the language of power.”)

In the name of defending Ukraine’s “national sovereignty,” the progressives now officially resolve to pretend indefinitely that the “sovereign” decision-making power in this warfare arrangement is somehow not in the possession of the United States—i.e., the government that is single-handedly sponsoring, bankrolling, and operationally coordinating a foreign belligerent’s sprawling war effort against the country with the world’s largest nuclear arsenal.

That the United States could even be in the position to purportedly delegate “sovereign” authority to Ukraine over diplomatic, strategic, and military decisions just further demonstrates that the ultimate decision-making authority in fact resides in Washington, DC, and not the Eastern European capital formerly known as “Kiev.” And the Biden administration is therefore exercising its own “sovereign” discretion to pursue increasingly maximalist war aims, notwithstanding a level of nuclear risk that Biden himself says is comparable to the Cuban Missile Crisis. Emotional support for this policy approach was basically always the progressives’ position, but their p.r. the blunder has helpfully clarified things for anyone who might have been confused.

martes, 25 de octubre de 2022

Exonera Fiscalía electoral a Pío por recibir cash

Abel Barajas

Cd. de México (25 octubre 2022).-

https://www.reforma.com/aplicacioneslibre/preacceso/articulo/default.aspx?

Pío López Obrador, hermano del Presidente de la República, resultó inocente.

La Fiscalía de Delitos Electorales (FEDE), encabezada por el militante morenista José Agustín Ortiz Pinchetti, determinó que el dinero en efectivo que recibió Pío en 2015 en sobres y bolsas de papel no constituyó un delito pues no hubo "pruebas suficientes"para determinarlo.


El hermano del Mandatario recibió en 2015 dinero en efectivo de parte de David León, quien se desempeñaba entonces como asesor en el Gobierno de Chiapas, de Manuel Velasco (del PVEM), y que en el sexenio lopezobradorista fungió como Coordinador Nacional de Protección Civil.

El portal Latinus reveló en agosto de 2020 videos de esas entregas que permanecían en secrecía. El monto estimado era de 1.4 millones de pesos.

Los videos no fueron desmentidos ni rechazados por los implicados. Al contrario, admitieron que se trataba de dinero para "el movimiento" que dio origen a Morena, partido político registrado ante el INE y que debe cumplir como todas las organizaciones, con las normas y comprobaciones de ingresos lícitos.


Héctor Sánchez Zaldívar, agente del Ministerio Público Federal encargado de la indagatoria, determinó el no ejercicio de la acción penal en favor de Pío López Obrador y de David León.

El fiscal envió su resolución al Director General Jurídico en Materia de Delitos Electorales de la FEDE, quien suscribió la firma de autorización, según la defensa del tabasqueño.

Sánchez Zaldívar no sólo cerró la investigación bajo la consideración de que no existe un delito, sino que puso fin a la indagatoria para cancelar la posibilidad de seguir indagando el caso por un delito de orden de electoral.

La conclusión de la investigación se dio pese a que la FEDE no llamó a declarar al Presidente ni presencial ni por escrito, a pesar de que AMLO había manifestado no tener inconveniente en presentar su testimonio.

Uno de los cabos sueltos era interrogar a Pío, pues ante la Fiscalía se reservó su derecho a declarar aunque a medios de comunicación dijo que el dinero era para gastos de gasolina y transporte "del movimiento".

De todas formas, cuando el hermano del Presidente volvió a comparecer, el pasado 5 de octubre, guardó silencio.

En un comunicado, la Fiscalía Electoral arguyó que el cierre del caso fue obligado por una orden del juez de amparo Julio Veredín Sena Velázquez de determinar "de manera inmediata" una resolución del caso.

La Fiscalía dijo que lo cerró de inmediato para acatar la petición del juez y por carecer de pruebas.

"Aun cuando se estaban desahogando diligencias de investigación con motivo de las recientes declaraciones públicas del señor Pío L., el Ministerio Público de la Federación, en acatamiento estricto a lo ordenado por el Juez de Amparo, determinó el no ejercicio de la acción penal por carecer hasta el momento de pruebas suficientes y fuera de toda duda sobre las responsabilidades penales correspondientes", estableció en un comunicado.

lunes, 24 de octubre de 2022

101st Airborne Deployed to Ukraine’s Border ‘Ready To Fight Tonight’

A commander said, "this is not a training deployment, this is a combat deployment"

by Kyle Anzalone Posted on October 23, 2022

https://news.antiwar.com/2022/10/23/101st-airborn-deployed-to-ukraines-border-ready-to-fight-tonight/

The White House has deployed thousands of American soldiers just miles from Ukraine to prepare for war, according to CBS News. Officers speaking with the outlet revealed they were there for combat against Russia.

Brigadier General John Lubas confirmed nearly 5,000 troops from the 101st Airborne recently joined the 100,000 American soldiers already deployed to Europe. Lubas described his troops as being on “full deployment,” and they are preparing to fight Russian soldiers in Ukraine. “This is not a training deployment, this is a combat deployment for us. We understand we need to be ready to fight tonight,” he said.

CBS Reporter Charlie D’Agata was embedded with the American forces as they conducted military drills – at a forward operating base – within four miles of Ukraine’s border. The 101st Airborne is engaged in joint exercises with Romanian forces, simulating Ukrainian soldiers’ combat against Russian troops.

Colonel Edwin Matthaidess said his forces have been “closely watching” the Russian soldiers, “building objectives to practice against” and conducting war games that “replicate exactly what’s going on” in Ukraine.

CBS News reported, "[Russia’s] goal is to cut off all Ukrainian access to the sea, leaving the country and its military forces landlocked." CBS News did not provide a source for that assertion. The Kremlin has publicly said its war goal is limited to eastern Ukraine.

Lubas declared the division was "ready to defend every inch of NATO soil." However, Moscow has never threatened to invade a NATO country. Ukraine is not a NATO member. When President Zelensky said Ukraine should be allowed into the North Atlantic alliance last month, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg rejected Kiev’s proposal.

The 101st Airborne is a light infantry division. It carries the nickname the "Screaming Eagles" as the Pentagon utilizes the 101st as a force that can deploy around the world within hours. Lubas described his division as bringing a "unique capability, from our air assault capability… We’re a light infantry force, but again, we bring that mobility with us, for our aircraft and air assaults.”

Romanian Major General Lulian Berdila told CBS News that the presence of American troops was reminiscent of WWII, "The real meaning for me, to have the American troops here, is like if you were to have allies in Normandy before any enemy was there." The 101st has not deployed to Europe since the last world war.

Kyle Anzalone is the opinion editor of Antiwar.com, news editor of the Libertarian Institute, and co-host of Conflicts of Interest.

sábado, 22 de octubre de 2022

More than 100 settler attacks on Palestinians documented in last 10 days: Report

Security source says attacks are being perpetrated by a large number of settlers, including women and children

By 

MEE staff

Published date: 21 October 2022

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/palestine-israel-settler-attacks-documented

There have been more than 100 attacks by Israeli settlers against Palestinians in the occupied West Bank over the last ten days, according to local media.

The Israeli newspaper Haaretz said on Friday that most of the attacks it had documented had taken place in the northern West Bank, especially in the town of Huwwara in Nablus governorate.

Last week, dozens of settlers attacked Palestinian property and vehicles in the Huwwara area. 

Witnesses told Middle East Eye that masked settlers threw rocks at Palestinian vehicles near the town, as well as setting vehicles and olive trees on fire.

Abdullah Odeh, who owns a local amusement park in Huwwara, said residents had almost been successful in repelling the settlers when a group of Israeli soldiers arrived.

"The settlers were retreating, but when they saw the soldiers, they came back in force and started to get closer, breaking everything in their path," said Odeh.

"The soldiers did not push them back. Instead, they started to attack us and shoot toward us."

Footage from Odeh's security cameras reviewed by MEE corroborates his story. 

"While the soldiers were pushing us back and attacking us, the settlers started to set fire to one of our vans that was parked higher up on the hill, while another group of them came and started to set fire to one of our lorries," he says.

Armed with stones, sticks, and guns, another group of settlers began throwing rocks at passing cars and smashing up shops along the town's main road.

'Horrific attack'

On Wednesday, two activists were injured by settlers armed with stones and clubs while helping Palestinians harvest olives in the village of Kisan, south of Bethlehem.

"About twenty settlers arrived and started attacking the harvest volunteers," Tali Katzir, an activist at the scene, told Haaretz.

Katzir said Hagar Gefen, a 70-year-old human rights activist, was among those injured.

"She suffers from broken ribs and bruises all over her body," said Katzir.

Knesset lawmakers Aida Touma-Sliman and Ofer Cassif, from Hadash-Ta'al, condemned the attack and called for those behind it to be held responsible.

"This horrific attack is a direct result of the criminal silence... [from Prime Minister Yair] Lapid, [Defence Minister Benny] Gantz, and [Public Security Minister Omer] Bar-Lev in the face of settler terrorism," said Touma-Sliman.  

Double standards

Haaretz said on Friday that while Israeli Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi had been quick to condemn attacks by settlers on Israeli soldiers, no such criticism had been made by the army over attacks against Palestinians.

An Israeli soldier from an illegal West Bank settlement near Nablus was arrested on Thursday on suspicion of participating in a settler attack on an Israeli unit earlier in the day. 

On Thursday morning, a group of settlers threw rocks at passing Palestinian vehicles in Huwwara, before attacking Israeli soldiers dispatched to the area with pepper gas.

A security source told the newspaper that contrary to claims by senior security officials that attacks on Palestinians were being carried out by an out-of-control handful of settlers, well known to the security establishment, they were in fact being perpetrated by a large number of settlers, including women and children.

The source added that the attacks by the settlers were an attempt to inflame the situation in the occupied territories to the benefit of party campaigns ahead of next month's election in Israel.

viernes, 21 de octubre de 2022

 La 4T a contrapelo

Mario Patrón

https://www.jornada.com.mx/2022/10/20/opinion/020a1pol

La autodenominada Cuarta Transformación ha empleado desde sus inicios una estrategia discursiva que presenta su movimiento como la antítesis de los gobiernos que le precedieron. No somos iguales es una de las frases que actualiza dicha estrategia y que ha sido usada con gran insistencia en los últimos meses, ya no sólo como lema en el marco del cuarto Informe de gobierno, sino también como respuesta ante diversas circunstancias, especialmente en el curso de las conferencias de prensa matutinas.

Con dicha frase la 4T ha presumido haber dado fin a las graves violaciones a derechos humanos, a la represión, la corrupción, la impunidad, el autoritarismo y el neoliberalismo, entre otros males; sin embargo, la excesiva reiteración de la afirmación no hace más que acentuar el contraste que prevalece en la realidad en esos mismos aspectos, a poco menos de cuatro años de gobierno y en medio de una dinámica de creciente militarización, de debilitamiento institucional y democrático, y frente a la persistencia de graves problemáticas estructurales que el país ha arrastrado por décadas.

Opositor en su momento de la mal llamada guerra contra el narcotráfico y de la posterior Ley de Seguridad Interior que se pretendió impulsar hacia finales del sexenio anterior, López Obrador propuso durante su campaña hacia la Presidencia y ratificó en su agenda de seguridad al arranque de su mandato el cese a la estrategia militar y el impulso de una agenda de justicia transicional y seguridad ciudadana. Sin embargo, cuatro años después, la presencia militar se ha fortalecido no sólo cuantitativa, sino cualitativamente, asumiendo cada vez más labores civiles, a contrapelo de los estándares y garantías más elementales para el sostenimiento y fortalecimiento de un régimen democrático.

Los recientes #SedenaLeaks han revelado datos no sólo sobre el creciente poderío de las fuerzas armadas y sobre su participación en tareas civiles que exceden sus funciones de ley, sino también sobre la continuidad de modos de proceder que el actual gobierno ha señalado como rasgos de los regímenes anteriores que presenta a la opinión pública como sus antagonistas. El seguimiento a candidatos, organizaciones y defensores de derechos humanos; el conocimiento previo de múltiples operaciones del crimen organizado sin que se llevaran a cabo acciones preventivas; el espionaje mediante el software Pegasus; e incluso la creación de una aerolínea o la implementación de una estrategia mediática para aumentar la simpatía del Ejército ante la sociedad, son varios de los hallazgos hasta hoy revelados que destacan entre los documentos filtrados por el colectivo Guacamaya que dan cuenta de la apuesta por una militarización que transgrede las labores que constitucionalmente le han sido confiadas; así, la Ley de Seguridad Interior impulsada por Peña terminó por concretarse bajo otros códigos.

La violencia persiste, sí con una me­seta que ha detenido la curva de ascenso que registraba previamente, pero presenta cifras preocupantes. Se habla de más de 21 mil homicidios hasta septiembre, y recién se registró el fin de semana más violento en lo que va del año con 286 homicidios dolosos entre el 14 y 16 de octubre. Misma condición muestra la violencia contra el periodismo, que suma 36 periodistas asesinados en este sexenio, cifra ya no muy distante de los 47 periodistas asesinados que totalizó el sexenio anterior, según Artículo 19. Este es ya el segundo año más violento para el periodismo, con 11 periodistas asesinados en los primeros nueve meses. Es igualmente grave que, en la primera mitad del presente sexenio, se estima que han sido asesinados por lo menos 58 defensores de derechos humanos.

En corrupción e impunidad, temas que fueron centrales en la estrategia de campaña electoral de la 4T, también advertimos profundos contrastes entre su narrativa y la realidad. Transparencia Internacional otorga a México 31 puntos de 100 en la percepción de la población sobre la corrupción, con lo cual ocupa el lugar 124 de 180 países estudiados a escala global. Esta posición representa sólo dos puntos de avance ante 2017, cuando se calificó al país con 29 puntos, en tanto que hasta 2014 México había alcanzado 35 puntos.

Otra medición reciente, el Índice de Capacidad para Combatir la Corrupción, sitúa a México en la posición 12 de 15 países latinoamericanos, un decremento de 13 por ciento respecto de 2019. La dinámica de concentración de facultades en el Ejecutivo, el ataque a los organismos autónomos y las reducciones presupuestales a éstos son los principales elementos que han debilitado en los años recientes las capacidades institucionales del país para erradicar la corrupción. En materia de impunidad, México ocupa el lugar 60 de 69 países evaluados por el Índice Global de Impunidad, donde se le califica como el cuarto país con peor evaluación respecto a su sistema de justicia.

Lo que muestran los anteriores datos es que, a contrapelo de su discurso, en los hechos la 4T no acredita haber llevado a cabo una apuesta sería por combatir la corrupción y la impunidad.

A la vista, la 4T cada vez parece más un régimen no de transformación, sino de continuidad respecto de los anteriores y no basta repetir el estribillo del no somos iguales para ocultar una realidad en la que lo que sobresale es una dinámica de militarización, de concentración de poder, de ataque a organismos autónomos, a la prensa y a los defensores de derechos; la persistencia de la violencia, la continuidad del espionaje y, como lo hemos visto recientemente, la reiteración de prácticas de cooptación de la oposición partidista en el Congreso. El escenario que se configura rumbo a 2024 se avizora de complejidad mayúscula: un régimen político que socava las bases mismas de su legitimidad, pero que no encuentra contraste en una oposición carente de autoridad moral y liderazgo político.

jueves, 20 de octubre de 2022

Swedes’ rising support for far-right driven by a sense of crisis in ideology, or Swedish culture

By 

Ding Gang

Published: Oct 19, 2022 

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202210/1277475.shtml

Ulf Kristersson, the new Swedish prime minister, announced the composition of the new government following the elections. Judging from Kristersson's remarks, it is almost certain that Sweden's future foreign policies will be more inclined to be inconsistent with those of the US and other European countries, including policies toward the Russia-Ukraine conflict and China. Any problems that arise in relations between China and the EU will also be likely reflected in the relations between China and Sweden in the future.

A nation that insists on embarking on the "Third Way" now has begun to turn right. This is particularly notable when we observe the changes in Europe. In the 2022 Swedish general elections, the far-right Sweden Democrats surged to become the second-largest party. The party, founded in 1988 and with roots in neo-Nazism, has become a political force that can influence the future development of Sweden - this has reflected the changes in Swedish social thought.

Although the Sweden Democrats party is not directly participating in the cabinet this time, they will have a say in drafting any and all new laws, amendments to regulations, and budget decisions. They will also be able to place their own political operatives into government ministries to check up on the work of the other parties.

Anti-immigrant political forces in Denmark, Norway, and other Nordic countries have been on the rise in recent years, forming a trend of public opinion changes across Northern Europe. Against this backdrop, the Sweden Democratic party, which has an anti-immigrant stance, expanded and won more votes. In recent years, there has been a continuous wave of gang-related crimes in Sweden, many of which are related to the immigrant community. An increasing number of people are beginning to believe that "it's all the fault of immigrants."

However, behind the anti-immigration rhetoric is the "Swedish culture first" nationalist ideology. The Sweden Democratic party is steadfastly opposed to cultural pluralism, especially bicultural identity, emphasizing the need to spare no effort to preserve the purity of Swedish culture. The Sweden Democrats leader Björn Söder once said that minorities were not Swedish, as ethnicity and citizenship were two different concepts.

According to the Sweden Democrats, Swedes are either born in Sweden, or those who immigrated to Sweden but actively identify with Swedish culture, choose to become part of Sweden, and are loyal to Swedish culture. 

This strong cultural conservatism will become an important reason for them to oppose the further promotion of European integration, to be anti-Russian, and to support a hard-line policy toward Russia.

In the elections, many Swedish voters changed their long-standing support for the Sweden Social Democratic Party not because they support the far-right policy choice. They changed because they feel a stronger and stronger sense of crisis in ideology, or Swedish culture. 

During the long post-war period, in which the Sweden Social Democratic Party was in power for most of the time, the party's insistence on the Third Way has made Sweden a country with the highest social development index in the world, with per capita GDP remaining within the top 10 for the most of the time. Sweden, home to about 10 million people, is playing a leading role in not only Europe but also around the globe in areas ranging from employment, environmental protection, education, science, and technology to social welfare and social stability. 

But in recent years, as globalization has continued to expand and accelerate, Swedes have felt being impacted, especially in terms of economy and social welfare.

This is in line with the overall state of development in Europe. Some European scholars have pointed out that the weakening of sovereign state functions by globalization is mainly manifested in three aspects - security, currency, and welfare.

In face of the shock, the Swedes are not giving up the "Third Way," but will take a step back to see if they could hold on to the achievement of the "Third Way." They believe, if they are the best, why can't they just stick around? That's why they voted for the right wing. It is also one of the reasons why this country, which has not participated in a war for more than 200 years, finally decided to join NATO.

The rise of far-right parties in Sweden is by no means a positive signal for globalization. Taking political changes that have occurred in major European countries into consideration, such as the UK, Italy, and France in recent years, people are wondering where Europe is headed. This question will determine the future of Western civilization.

The author is a senior editor with the People's Daily, and currently a senior fellow with the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at the Renmin University of China. dinggang@globaltimes.com.cn. Follow him on Twitter @dinggangchina

miércoles, 19 de octubre de 2022

Choosing Sides in the New Cold War

by Ted Snider Posted on October 19, 2022

https://original.antiwar.com/Ted_Snider/2022/10/18/choosing-sides-in-the-new-cold-war/

In his September 21 address to the United Nations General Assembly, President Biden said "We do not seek a Cold War. We do not ask any nation to choose between the United States or any other partner.”

It took a lot of courage to make that claim.

On October 5, OPEC+ announced that they were cutting oil production by two million barrels a day. That represents a 2% reduction of the daily global supply, larger than expected and the biggest cut in over two years.

That cut in oil production comes despite Biden’s plea to Saudi Arabia to increase oil production to offset rising prices caused by Russian sanctions and, crucially, boost the efficacy of sanctions on Russia. Biden offered Saudi Arabia an expanded "strategic partnership," a "commitment to supporting Saudi Arabia’s security and territorial defense," and a further commitment to uphold Saudi Arabia as the dominant power in the region.

Biden welcomed the pariah kingdom back into the world community in a trade for siding with the US by increasing oil production. He got rejected. And that is when the White House proved that they do ask nations to choose sides: “It’s clear that OPEC+ is aligning with Russia with today’s announcement,” announced White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre.

And there is a penalty for not being on America’s side. Several members of congress have called for the US to respond by putting an end to all US military aid to Saudi Arabia. Senator Bob Menendez, the chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, promised that, because of Saudi Arabia’s "decision to help underwrite Putin’s war," he "will not green-light any cooperation with Riyadh until the kingdom reassesses its position with respect to the war in Ukraine." Legislation has been introduced to remove US troops and missile systems from Saudi Arabia and to stop all arms sales to Saudi Arabia. The price that Saudi Arabia will pay is not for its decision’s effect on oil markets or anything other than choosing sides: the military relationship could be restarted if Saudi Arabia "reconsiders its embrace of Putin," said Senator Richard Blumental and Representative Ro Khanna, describing the legislation they have proposed.

The experience of Saudi Arabia is not an isolated example that refutes Biden’s claim that the US does not ask countries to choose sides. Loosing patience with Turkey’s refusal to join the US sanctions regime against Russia and with their plans even to increase economic cooperation with Russia, the US has launched an intensified pressure campaign to force Turkey to crack down on Russian evasion of economic sanctions and cease integration with Russia’s financial system.

India, too, can testify to the boldness of Biden’s claim that the US does not pressure countries to take sides. The US has repeatedly demanded that India "take a clear position" on the war in Ukraine and declared that "It’s now time [for India] to further distance itself from Russia." Those demands have also been accompanied by warnings.

Africa has also been warned. In early August, the US ambassador to the UN, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, told African countries that “if a country decides to engage with Russia, where there are sanctions, then they are breaking those sanctions.” What happens if they break sanctions? “They stand the chance of having actions taken against them.”

The US pressure on countries to take sides continues as countries continue to decline to sign up for the US side either by supporting Russia diplomatically or economically or by insisting on their right to remain nonaligned.

The decision to cut oil production was not an exclusive OPEC decision. The decision was made by OPEC+, an organization of OPEC and non-OPEC oil producing countries that includes Russia. So, the Saudi decision is perceived by the White House as being coordinated with Russia and as evidence of Saudi Arabia overtly siding with Russia.

Saudi Arabia has more than doubled its imports of Russian oil. And they are not alone. Russian oil is flowing to China, India and Turkey. And exports into Russia also continue to flow.

Even unequivocal diplomatic support for the US at the UN has continued to be hard to find. In the Security Council, even support for condemning as bold a move as Russia’s decision to absorb territory in eastern Ukraine was disappointing for the US. Russia, of course, vetoed the resolution. But China, India, Brazil and Gabon all abstained. China, India, and Brazil represent not only a large percentage of the world’s population, but their votes demonstrate that the BRICS nations remain unbroken and undivided.

When the resolution died in the Security Council, it moved to the General Assembly. But, even here, where their votes were non-binding and the pressure from the US was intense, fifty-two nations would still not condemn Russia. Importantly, China and India continued to abstain, effectively resisting US pressure and supporting Russia. The nations of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization continued to stand with Russia as did most of Africa.

Medea Benjamin and Nicolas Davies have pointed out that, at the recent session of the UN General Assembly in September, sixty-six countries used their speeches as an opportunity to call for a diplomatic end to the war. In doing so, they swam against the US stream of refusing to push Ukraine and Russia to the negotiation table. Those sixty-six countries represent most of the people of the world. Noam Chomsky has recently said that "about 90% of the countries of the world are not going along with the U.S.-U.K. position on Ukraine, which is basically to continue the war to weaken Russia and no negotiations."

Outside the US, UK, and Europe, the war in Ukraine looks more complicated than it does in the US. And many of those countries want to reserve the right to remain nonaligned and want to push for a diplomatic solution to the war. It is not true that the US does not ask those countries to choose sides, that it does "not ask any nation to choose between the United States or any other partner."

Ted Snider has a graduate degree in philosophy and writes on analyzing patterns in US foreign policy and history.