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sábado, 30 de septiembre de 2017

EL KURDISTÁN Y CATALUÑA



El pasado 25 de septiembre el gobierno de la región autónoma kurda de Irak realizó un referéndum para que la población expresara su apoyo a la independencia de esa región, respecto a Irak. Según el  presidente del Kurdistán iraquí, Masud Barzani, la respuesta fue abrumadoramente favorable a la separación de Irak y a la conformación de un nuevo país.
Por su parte, el gobierno de la región autónoma de Cataluña, tiene contemplado realizar un referéndum este 1º de Octubre, con el mismo fin, preguntar a la población si desean separarse del Reino de España.
Son casos muy diferentes, no sólo por la geografía, la historia y las circunstancias específicas de cada uno; sino también, por las implicaciones geopolíticas y en las relaciones entre las grandes potencias que ambos procesos están desatando.
Sin embargo, primero veamos algunas coincidencias:
-      En ambos casos poblaciones que tienen una historia, lengua y espacio geográfico común, han luchado por mucho tiempo (por lo menos durante el siglo XX y lo que va del XXI), por reafirmar sus características propias ante la hegemonía de estados más poderosos (en el caso catalán el español; en el kurdo el Imperio Otomano y Persia primero; y después los estados que nacieron de la Primera Guerra Mundial, Turquía, Irak y Siria; e Irán).
-      Tanto en el Kurdistán, como en Cataluña, existen clases políticas que están limitadas en sus ambiciones de poder, en tanto sigan perteneciendo subordinadamente a estados más grandes; por lo que desean la independencia para consolidarse en los nuevos países (especialmente la familia Barzani en el Kurdistán iraquí).
-      Las dos regiones autónomas cuentan con suficientes recursos económicos (Cataluña con industria, agricultura, comercio y turismo; Kurdistán con petróleo, agricultura y comercio) como para aspirar a separarse de sus países matrices, con la posibilidad de que su economía se mantenga relativamente próspera.
-      En ambos casos las clases dirigentes y las clases medias se sienten minimizadas y explotadas económicamente, por los gobiernos de los países a los que actualmente pertenecen (Madrid y Bagdad).
Por supuesto que las diferencias en ambos procesos son más marcadas:
-      Mientras Cataluña está enclavada en un país miembro de la Unión Europea, y por lo tanto su enfrentamiento es en principio, con el gobierno de Madrid; el Kurdistán iraquí, si bien enfrenta al gobierno de Bagdad, su separación de Irak afectará también la relación de las poblaciones kurdas de Turquía, Irán y Siria con sus respectivos gobiernos, por lo que su repercusión es mucho mayor en el Medio Oriente.
-      Los kurdos están inmersos en enfrentamientos bélicos con los grupos terroristas en Irak y Siria (Estado Islámico y las diversas derivaciones de Al Qaeda) y también enfrentan la oposición del gobierno sirio; así como también se enfrentan al gobierno turco, contra el cual ha combatido el Partido de los Trabajadores Kurdos (el PKK), dirigido por Abdullah Ocalan. El gobierno iraní también ha combatido continuamente a los kurdos. En cambio Cataluña, no está inmersa en un conflicto bélico con el gobierno español, aunque en los últimos días éste ha intentado detener la realización del referéndum, mediante el envío de fuerzas policiales.
-      En el caso kurdo, el aspecto religioso también juega un papel relevante, en vista de que la mayoría de los kurdos son musulmanes sunníes, y las minorías cristianas o chiís se sienten discriminadas en las zonas kurdas. Y a la inversa, en Irán, los kurdos son discriminados, no sólo por ser una minoría étnica distinta, sino también por ser sunníes; mientras en Cataluña, la mayoría de la población es católica, sin que el aspecto religioso tenga relevancia especial en el conflicto.
Las implicaciones en la política internacional de ambos procesos serán grandes, en caso de que llegara a concretarse la independencia de estas regiones, lo que en estos momentos parece difícil y en todo caso, llevaría algunos años en materializarse (suponiendo que se realice el referéndum en Cataluña y que gane el sí).
En lo que respecta a Cataluña, una separación de España, hundiría a este país en una crisis económica, ya que la importancia industrial, comercial, turística y agrícola de la región autónoma es crucial, pues el estado español perdería el 19%[1] de su PIB y el 25% de las exportaciones.
Además, la separación incitaría a una región que siempre ha querido desvincularse de España y de donde surgió el grupo terrorista ETA, es decir las provincias vascas.
De ahí que para el reino español, perder a Cataluña podría convertirse en un golpe devastador en lo económico y lo político; y con ello generaría también un “efecto demostración” en otras regiones europeas que ven con recelo y escepticismo a los gobiernos centrales de sus respectivos países, tales como Escocia en el Reino Unido; la zona norte de Italia o la región este de Alemania (además de la ya larga disputa entre flamencos y valones en Bélgica).
Para la Unión Europea sería un dolor de cabeza, ya que de inmediato, Cataluña no podría formar parte de la Unión y tendría que solicitar su ingreso, lo que seguramente sería bloqueado por España; lo que generaría también una crisis económica y política en la propia Cataluña (que depende en gran medida del comercio y las inversiones con los países de la Unión Europea); y ello podría generar dislocaciones en las líneas de producción y en el comercio de la parte sur de la Unión, en vista de que Cataluña quedaría “cercenada” del resto de la misma.
Lo más probable es que ese conflicto España-Cataluña, trasladado al espacio de la Unión Europea, generaría más tensiones, menos acuerdos y más deseos de diferentes regiones por separarse de sus respectivos países, acentuando así la ya muy caótica situación de la Unión Europea; y debilitando al eje Berlín-Paris que desea conformarse como un polo independiente de los otros ejes de poder (Washington-Londres y Moscú-Beijing).
De ahí la oposición (cada vez más fuerte) de Bruselas, a la separación de Cataluña del reino español.
Por lo que respecta al Kurdistán, si bien había la posibilidad de que al terminar la Primera Guerra Mundial se creara un país con dicho nombre (con poblaciones kurdas asentadas en Turquía, Siria, Irak e Irán), la oposición de los países formados después de los acuerdos entre Inglaterra y Francia (Sykes-Picot) y especialmente en contra del Tratado de Sevres por parte de Turquía, evitaron la creación del Kurdistán, por lo que desde hace casi un siglo, esta minoría (que suma casi 30 millones de habitantes en los cuatro países en los que se asienta), ha buscado la conformación de un Estado.
A diferencia de Israel, que logró el apoyo de las grandes potencias para arrebatarle la mayor parte del territorio a los palestinos y así conformar su estado; los kurdos no tuvieron el apoyo de ninguna gran potencia, por lo que se han mantenido como minorías combatidas y discriminadas en los países en los que están asentados.
Pero ahora tanto Estados Unidos[2] como Israel, ven la creación del Kurdistán iraquí como una estrategia alternativa para combatir y desestabilizar a los países que ellos denominan como la “creciente chií”, que iría desde Teherán, pasando por Bagdad, Damasco y hasta Beirut.
Recordemos que los neoconservadores, el lobby pro Israel y el complejo militar-industrial-de seguridad de Washington han generado desde 2001 una “Guerra contra el terrorismo” en el Medio Oriente, cuyo verdadero objetivo ha sido desestabilizar y “balcanizar” a los países que consideran enemigos del régimen de Tel Aviv (el Irak de S. Hussein; la Libia de Gaddafi; la Siria de Assad; el régimen de Irán; y los grupos armados de Hezbollah y Hamas); con objeto de que Israel se consolide como el país hegemónico de la región, siga su expansión territorial a costa de los palestinos y países vecinos (especialmente Siria); y pueda aprovechar los recursos naturales de la región, sin interferencias (agua, grandes yacimientos de gas y hasta donde alcance, el petróleo).
Todo iba de acuerdo al plan hasta que se interpusieron Rusia e Irán, para evitar que cayera el régimen de Bashar el Assad, a través del apoyo occidental y de las monarquías sunníes de la región a los grupos terroristas y mercenarios que combatían al régimen de Damasco.
Así que la intervención de Moscú y Teherán y la férrea respuesta del ejército sirio al ataque de los terroristas y mercenarios, lograron detener la estrategia del caos deliberado impulsada por Washington, Tel Aviv, Riad, Londres y Paris, por lo que en los últimos meses se verificó la derrota de dicha estrategia.
Pero ya estaba en espera la estrategia alternativa que es romper esa “creciente chií”, ahora utilizando a los kurdos, a los que el régimen de Tel Aviv ha apoyado desde hace años como una cuña y un grupo desestabilizador para los regímenes de Turquía, Siria, Irak e Irán; además de que le compra el petróleo que explota el gobierno autónomo kurdo en Irak.
Por ello, el caso del Kuridstán iraquí tiene que ver más con la estrategia de caos deliberado y “balcanización” que conviene tanto a Estados Unidos (para detener a Rusia en el Medio Oriente); a Israel (para mantener desestabilizados a los gobiernos de Turquía, Irak, Siria e Irán); y a Arabia Saudita (que quiere mantener la presión sobre los gobiernos chiís de Damasco, Bagdad y Teherán).


[2] Retóricamente Washington está contra la separación; pero por “debajo del agua” la apoya.

viernes, 29 de septiembre de 2017

The Rise of the New McCarthyism
September 26, 2017 consortiumnews.com
By Robert Parry
Make no mistake about it: the United States has entered an era of a New McCarthyism that blames nearly every political problem on Russia and has begun targeting American citizens who don’t go along with this New Cold War propaganda.
A difference, however, from the McCarthyism of the 1950s is that this New McCarthyism has enlisted Democrats, liberals and even progressives in the cause because of their disgust with President Trump; the 1950s version was driven by Republicans and the Right with much of the Left on the receiving end, maligned by the likes of Sen. Joe McCarthy as “un-American” and as Communism’s “fellow travelers.”
The real winners in this New McCarthyism appear to be the neoconservatives who have leveraged the Democratic/liberal hatred of Trump to draw much of the Left into the political hysteria that sees the controversy over alleged Russian political “meddling” as an opportunity to “get Trump.”
Already, the neocons and their allies have exploited the anti-Russian frenzy to extract tens of millions of dollars more from the taxpayers for programs to “combat Russian propaganda,” i.e., funding of non-governmental organizations and “scholars” who target dissident Americans for challenging the justifications for this New Cold War.
The Washington Post, which for years has served as the flagship for neocon propaganda, is again charting the new course for America, much as it did in rallying U.S. public backing for the 2003 invasion of Iraq and in building sympathy for abortive “regime change” projects aimed at Syria and Iran. The Post has begun blaming almost every unpleasant development in the world on Russia! Russia! Russia!
For instance, a Post editorial on Tuesday shifted the blame for the anemic victory of German Chancellor Angela Merkel and the surprising strength of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) from Merkel’s austerity policies, which have caused hardship for much of the working class, or from her open door for Mideast refugees, which has destabilized some working-class neighborhoods, to – you guessed it – Russia!
The evidence, as usual, is vague and self-interested, but sure to be swallowed by many Democrats and liberals, who hate Russia because they blame it for Trump, and by lots of Republicans and conservatives, who have a residual hatred for Russia left over from the Old Cold War.
The Post cited the Atlantic Council’s Digital Forensic Research Lab, which has been pushing much of the hysteria about alleged Russian activities on the Internet. The Atlantic Council essentially is NATO’s think tank and is financed with money from the U.S. government, Gulf oil states, military contractors, global financial institutions and many other sources which stand to gain directly or indirectly from the expanding U.S. military budget and NATO interventions.

Blaming Russia
In this New Cold War, the Russians get blamed for not only disrupting some neocon “regime change” projects, such as the proxy war in Syria, but also political developments in the West, such as Donald Trump’s election and AfD’s rise in Germany.
The Atlantic Council’s digital lab claimed, according to the Post editorial, that “In the final hours of the [German] campaign, online supporters of the AfD began warning their base of possible election fraud, and the online alarms were ‘driven by anonymous troll accounts and boosted by a Russian-language bot-net.’”
Of course, the Post evinces no evidence tying any of this to the Russian government or to President Vladimir Putin. It is the nature of McCarthyism that actual evidence is not required, just heavy breathing and dark suspicions. For those of us who operate Web sites, “trolls” – some volunteers and some professionals – have become a common annoyance and they represent many political outlooks, not just Russian.
Plus, it is standard procedure these days for campaigns to issue last-minute alarms to their supporters about possible election fraud to raise doubts about the results should the outcome be disappointing.
The U.S. government has engaged in precisely this strategy around the world, having pro-U.S. parties not only complain about election fraud but to take to the streets in violent protests to impugn the legitimacy of election outcomes. That U.S. strategy has been applied to places such as Ukraine (the Orange Revolution in 2004); Iran (the Green Revolution in 2009); Russia (the Snow Revolution in 2011); and many other locations.
Pre-election alerts also have become a feature in U.S. elections, even in 2016 when both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton raised questions about the legitimacy of the balloting, albeit for different reasons.
Yet, instead of seeing the AfD maneuver as a typical ploy by a relatively minor party – and the German election outcome as an understandable reflection of voter discontent and weariness over Merkel’s three terms as Chancellor – the Atlantic Council and the Post see Russians under every bed and particularly Putin.
Loving to Hate Putin
In the world of neocon propaganda, Putin has become the great bête noire, since he has frustrated a variety of neocon schemes. He helped head off a major U.S. military strike against Syria in 2013; he aided President Obama in achieving the Iran nuclear agreement in 2014-15; Putin opposed and – to a degree – frustrated the neocon-supported coup in Ukraine in 2014; and he ultimately supplied the air power that defeated neocon-backed “rebel” forces in Syria in 2015-17.
So, the Post and the neocons want Putin gone – and they have used gauzy allegations about “Russian meddling” in the U.S. and other elections as the new propaganda theme to justify destabilizing Russia with economic sanctions and, if possible, engineering another “regime change” project in Moscow.
None of this is even secret. Carl Gershman, the neocon president of the U.S.-government-funded National Endowment for Democracy, publicly proclaimed the goalof ousting Putin in an op-ed in The Washington Post, writing: “The United States has the power to contain and defeat this danger. The issue is whether we can summon the will to do so.”
But the way neocon propaganda works is that the U.S. and its allies are always the victims of some nefarious enemy who must be thwarted to protect all that is good in the world. In other words, even as NED and other U.S.-funded operations take aim at Putin and Russia, Russia and Putin must be transformed into the aggressors.
“Mr. Putin would like nothing better than to generate doubts, fog, cracks and uncertainty around the German pillar of Europe,” the Post editorial said. “He relishes infiltrating chaos and mischief into open societies. In this case, supporting the far-right AfD is extraordinarily cynical, given how many millions of Russians died to defeat the fascists seven decades ago.”
Not to belabor the point but there is no credible evidence that Putin did any of this. There is a claim by the virulently anti-Russian Atlantic Council that some “anonymous troll accounts” promoted some AfD complaint about possible voter fraud and that it was picked up by “a Russian-language bot-net.” Even if that is true – and the Atlantic Council is far from an objective source – where is the link to Putin?
Not everything that happens in Russia, a nation of 144 million people, is ordered by Putin. But the Post would have you believe that it is. It is the centerpiece of this neocon conspiracy theory.
Silencing Dissent
Similarly, any American who questions this propaganda immediately is dismissed as a “Kremlin stooge” or a “Russian propagandist,” another ugly campaign spearheaded by the Post and the neocons. Again, no evidence is required, just some analysis that what you’re saying somehow parallels something Putin has said.
On Tuesday, in what amounted to a companion piece for the editorial, a Post articleagain pushed the unproven suspicions about “Russian operatives” buying $100,000 in Facebook ads from 2015 into 2017 to supposedly influence U.S. politics. Once again, no evidence required.
In the article, the Post also reminds its readers that Moscow has a history of focusing on social inequities in the U.S., which gets us back to the comparisons between the Old McCarthyism and the new.
Yes, it’s true that the Soviet Union denounced America’s racial segregation and cited that ugly feature of U.S. society in expressing solidarity with the American civil rights movement and national liberation struggles in Africa. It’s also true that American Communists collaborated with the domestic civil rights movement to promote racial integration.
That was a key reason why J. Edgar Hoover’s FBI targeted Martin Luther King Jr. and other African-American leaders – because of their association with known or suspected Communists. (Similarly, the Reagan administration resisted support for Nelson Mandela because his African National Congress accepted Communist support in its battle against South Africa’s Apartheid white-supremacist regime.)
Interestingly, one of the arguments from liberal national Democrats in opposing segregation in the 1960s was that the repression of American blacks undercut U.S. diplomatic efforts to develop allies in Africa. In other words, Soviet and Communist criticism of America’s segregation actually helped bring about the demise of that offensive system.
Yet, King’s association with alleged Communists remained a talking point of die-hard segregationists even after his assassination when they opposed creating a national holiday in his honor in the 1980s.
These parallels between the Old McCarthyism and the New McCarthyism are implicitly acknowledged in the Post’s news article on Tuesday, which cites Putin’s criticism of police killings of unarmed American blacks as evidence that he is meddling in U.S. politics.
“Since taking office, Putin has on occasion sought to spotlight racial tensions in the United States as a means of shaping perceptions of American society,” the article states. “Putin injected himself in 2014 into the race debate after protests broke out in Ferguson, Mo., over the fatal shooting of Michael Brown, an African American, by a white police officer.
“‘Do you believe that everything is perfect now from the point of view of democracy in the United States?’ Putin told CBS’s ’60 Minutes’ program. ‘If everything was perfect, there wouldn’t be the problem of Ferguson. There would be no abuse by the police. But our task is to see all these problems and respond properly.’”
The Post’s speculative point seems to be that Putin’s response included having “Russian operatives” buy some ads on Facebook to exploit these racial tensions, but there is no evidence to support that conspiracy theory.
However, as this anti-Russia hysteria spreads, we may soon see Americans who also protest the police killing of unarmed black men denounced as “Putin’s fellow-travelers,” much as King and other civil rights leaders were smeared as “Communist dupes.”
Ignoring Reality
So, instead of Democrats and Chancellor Merkel looking in the mirror and seeing the real reasons why many white working-class voters are turning toward “populist” and “extremist” alternatives, they can simply blame Putin and continue a crackdown on Internet-based dissent as the work of “Russian operatives.”
Already, under the guise of combating “Russian propaganda” and “fake news,” Google, Facebook and other tech giants have begun introducing algorithms to hunt down and marginalize news that challenges official U.S. government narratives on hot-button issues such as Ukraine and Syria. Again, no evidence is required, just the fact that Putin may have said something similar.
As Democrats, liberals and even some progressives join in this Russia-gate hysteria – driven by their hatred of Donald Trump and his supposedly “fascistic” tendencies – they might want to consider whom they’ve climbed into bed with and what these neocons have in mind for the future.
Arguably, if fascism or totalitarianism comes to the United States, it is more likely to arrive in the guise of “protecting democracy” from Russia or another foreign adversary than from a reality-TV clown like Donald Trump.
The New McCarthyism with its Orwellian-style algorithms might seem like a clever way to neutralize (or maybe even help oust) Trump, but – long after Trump is gone – a structure for letting the neocons and the mainstream media monopolize American political debate might be a far greater threat to both democracy and peace.

Investigative reporter Robert Parry broke many of the Iran-Contra stories for The Associated Press and Newsweek in the 1980s. You can buy his latest book, America’s Stolen Narrative, either in print here or as an e-book (from Amazon and barnesandnoble.com).

jueves, 28 de septiembre de 2017

Catalan leader says Europe can't ignore independence vote
https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/_gBRTHp8kvyDfp324y8urA--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjtzbT0xO3c9ODQ7aD04NDtpbD1wbGFuZQ--/http:/l.yimg.com/os/152/2012/04/21/image001-png_162613.png.cf.jpg
ARITZ PARRA
Associated PressSeptember 27, 2017 yahoo.com

BARCELONA, Spain (AP) — The leader of Catalonia accused the European Union on Wednesday of "turning its back" on the Spanish region in its conflict with the central government over a disputed independence vote planned for Sunday that Spanish authorities have vowed to prevent.
"They are very brave when they talk about other countries where they have no competencies, but where are they when we citizens need them?" Catalan leader Carles Puigdemont said of EU officials four days before the secession referendum. "Is Europe's solution to Catalans to turn its back?"
Puigdemont also told The Associated Press he intends to make the divisive matter of Catalonia's independence into a European affair rather than just a domestic issue.
"If the yes wins, I will make an appeal for the European community to become involved, because we will have won our right to be heard, something that hasn't happened until now because the European Commission has always turned a deaf ear (to Catalonia)," the 54-year-old separatist leader said.
Sunday's vote, Puigdemont said, will allow Europe to "hear the voice of Catalonia in a very loud and strong way."
No country, within or outside the European Union, has openly expressed support for the Oct. 1 referendum that Spain's conservative government sees as illegal. U.S. President Donald Trump said Tuesday he thought it would be "foolish" for Catalans to break away from Spain.
"Whoever doesn't want to hear our voice needs to see a political otolaryngologist," Puigdemont said, using the formal term for an ear, nose and throat specialist.
He added that if European Commission president Jean Claude-Juncker cannot grasp the determination in Catalonia, "then it*s because this (European) project is in bad hands."
Spain's Constitutional Court, which has previously ruled that only central authorities can call such a vote and that all Spanish nationals should vote on sovereignty matters, has suspended the referendum.
The pro-independence regional government has so far ignored court rulings and vowed to go ahead with the vote. Officials of the executive and legislative branches are under investigation and a heavy police presence has been assembled in the northeastern region as the day for Catalans to cast ballots nears.
Madrid has launched an unprecedented crackdown to stop the referendum, including seizing paper ballots, removing referendum propaganda and ordering schools to be sealed off so they can't be used as voting stations.
Puigdemont told AP he thinks the effort to suppress the vote is boosting support for it in a way that European institutions won't be able to ignore.
"Today we are closer to a massive (turnout for the) referendum than we were one month ago," he said, describing the crackdown measures as "apocalyptic."
On Wednesday, Spain's National Court said it planned to investigate possible sedition charges for demonstrators who took part in a massive protest last week against a police crackdown on preparations for the vote.
"Looking at this landscape, somebody could think that we are hoarding weapons of mass destruction in Catalonia, a nuclear arsenal or a world-class drug stash," Puigdemont said. "But in fact, we are just trying to hold a referendum."
He said that people in Catalonia that saw the referendum with indifference or hostility have now "seen the curtailing of freedoms as an offense to their democratic convictions."
Regional leaders have said that if the "yes" side wins, they would be ready to declare Catalonia's independence two days later regardless of voter turnout. But Puigdemont on Wednesday acknowledged that significant participation is needed to portray the vote as representative.
He refused to disclose what percentage of the 5.5 million Catalan voters his government needs to declare the vote valid, but cited previous referendums in Spain, including the 2005 vote to pass the European Constitution that had a turnout of 42 percent.
"Nobody raised concerns about the participation level in order to legitimate the results, so I hope there are also no concerns in this case," Puigdemont said.
Catalonia is one of Spain's 17 autonomous regions. Its capital is the dynamic Mediterranean port city of Barcelona, a perennial favorite for tourists.
With a population of 7.5 million inhabitants, its own cultural traditions and language, Catalonia contributes a fifth of the Spain's 1.1 trillion-euro economy ($1.32 trillion).
The vast majority of Catalans favor holding a referendum, but they have long been almost evenly split over independence itself.
Separatist sentiment peaked at the height of the 2008 financial crisis, with many Catalans feeling they could do better on their own, but with the national and regional economies thriving again, polls indicate support for secession is on the wane.

The region's first attempts to hold a non-binding referendum in 2014 were blocked by Spain's Constitutional Court. The Catalan government went ahead and staged the unofficial poll. About 2.3 million Catalans — less than half of those eligible — voted, with 80 percent favoring independence.

miércoles, 27 de septiembre de 2017

China should speak for the developing world
By Li Kaisheng Source:Global Times Published: 2017/9/25 

Developing countries have always been important participants in international events hosted by China. The 29 heads of states who attended the Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation in May this year mainly came from developing nations. In the BRICS summit in Xiamen in September, leaders from Egypt, Thailand and other developing countries were invited in addition to top officials from the other four BRICS countries.

China's diplomacy has long been associated with developing countries. Chairman 
Mao Zedong once said, "It's our African brothers who got the People's Republic of China back into the United Nations." Foreign Minister Wang Yi once stressed that developing countries formed the basis of China's overall diplomatic structure; as a continent with the most developing nations, Africa can be called the "foundation of the foundation of China's diplomacy."

However, some observers contend the relationship between China and developing countries is undergoing fundamental changes. To some developing nations, China is now a member of the club of big powers, the second largest economy which has surpassed Japan. Some Western critics accuse China of resorting to "neocolonialism" by plundering resources, damaging the environment and contributing to widening the gap between rich and poor. Many of these accusations are false and present an exaggerated view of the situation. But China's relationship with the developing world has undergone changes.

After the founding of the People's Republic of China, the country shared a long history with the developing world - from a colonial or semi-colonial nation to independent countries. Most of them belong to the same category in the international political and economic order, lack a say in global political affairs and are down the pecking order in international trade. Due to the need to confront the hegemony of the Soviet Union and the US, China - itself poor at that time - offered economic and political support to many developing countries.

Despite a considerable gap with the developed countries, as long as China maintains stable growth, it will sooner or later be able to emerge out of the group of developing countries. As the world's second largest economy, China's influence reaches beyond that of other developing countries. Thus, solely emphasizing its developing country status will not help China boost its economy and strengthen its polity. In the long term, China has to decide on how to look at itself and how to define the relationship with developing countries.

China should calmly face the identity change and not give up the natural, historical and realistic relations with developing countries. In other words, even if China becomes a developed country in the future, it can still and should act as the spokesperson of developing countries. This is both a moral imperative and a demand for China's interest.

From a moral perspective, developing countries are still "vulnerable groups" in the current international order and their rights don't find a voice within the structure of international governance. While developed countries invest heavily in technology and upgrading armaments, many developing nations are still plagued by poverty, disease and even war. Fundamentally, the international order is still unfair and unreasonable. The international community including China should take a call for developing countries.

From China's point of view, its development is closely related to the progress of other developing countries. In terms of international division of labor, the places of China and most developing countries have undergone major changes. China also invests in other developing countries and exports industrial goods. But unlike the previous Western colonialists, China attaches importance to promoting infrastructure in developing countries. The Chinese believe a road must be first built if one wants to get richer. Through the Belt and Road initiative, China is committed to building a community of shared interests with the countries along the Belt and Road, most of them being developing countries.

China also has an opportunity to become a spokesperson for developing countries. Its developing background is institutionally linked with other developing nations through the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation, the China-CELAC Forum and so on. And as a permanent member of the UN Security Council, an important member of international organizations such as IMF, the World Bank and 
G20, and the founder of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, China is able to help other developing countries achieve their aspirations in international governance mechanisms.

The progress that developing countries make finally depends on themselves. But under the existing international structure, it is an unwise idea to rely only on self-development. As a result, China should not give up its stance that "developing countries are the basis of diplomacy." 

In the future, China may need to adapt to this change of identity: although it is no longer a developing country, it still needs to maintain or promote its role as the spokesperson for developing countries. This is not only necessitated by the need for China's own development, but is also a moral responsibility delegated to China by the international community.

The author is a research fellow at the Institute of International Relations, the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences. 
opinion@globaltimes.com.cn

lunes, 25 de septiembre de 2017

¿QUÉ VAMOS A HACER?

Después de la destrucción ocasionada por los sismos del 7 y 19 de septiembre, de la gran solidaridad social para el rescate de víctimas y la ayuda inicial a los damnificados, viene la parte más difícil. Hay que censar y ubicar a todas las familias que se han quedado sin sus casas y fuentes de trabajo, planear la reconstrucción, contar con los recursos económicos suficientes para realizarla y llevarla a cabo.
En un país acostumbrado a la irresponsabilidad y corrupción de los gobernantes, en donde unos a otros se culpan de las desgracias y los desastres[1], pero todos se quieren poner la medalla de los pocos logros, es muy factible que en los próximos meses se advierta desorganización, abusos y aprovechamiento de la tragedia por parte de gobernantes sin escrúpulos y los partidos políticos, que querrán adjudicarse la ayuda a los damnificados, como botín político para el proceso electoral del 2018.
Es cierto, una buena parte de la sociedad ha salido a ayudar de diversas formas en esta tragedia, especialmente los jóvenes. Sin embargo, no se sabe si esta energía social se canalizará para organizarse de alguna forma, con objeto de que la reconstrucción de miles de casas y negocios tenga un rostro humano, comprometido con la población; y no que se convierta en un nuevo negocio de políticos y especuladores inmobiliarios, que para colmo sirva para posicionar a determinados partidos políticos, con vistas a las próximas elecciones.
En general, existe mucha animadversión hacia los partidos, los candidatos, los gobernantes y las instituciones públicas por parte de la sociedad, y con justificada razón. Por ello, esa sociedad poco o nada se involucra en los procesos políticos, que a final de cuentas son los que derivan en leyes, decisiones y políticas públicas que nos afectan a todos.
Esta vez, esa energía social puede y debe canalizarse para que surja una nueva clase política de los escombros de la anterior; y eso sólo puede suceder si los ciudadanos, en vez de volver a dejar a los políticos profesionales tomar las malas decisiones que han ocasionado la pobreza, desigualdad, violencia, inseguridad y gran parte de las consecuencias de los desastres naturales; nos convertimos en actores de nuestro destino; así sea a escala local, en nuestra colonia, barrio, municipio, para dar un rumbo distinto, primero al proceso de reconstrucción y después al proyecto de país.
Yo soy muy escéptico de que eso vaya a suceder, ya que la subclase política corrupta, con el manejo de los recursos económicos que tendrá para la reconstrucción, más la ayuda que le brindan los grandes medios de comunicación para despolitizar a la población, muy bien puede conducir el enojo social hacia la frustración (una vez más); y en el 2018 concluir con el “triunfo” de uno más de los representantes del mismo sistema corrupto y podrido que se ha cebado en el país por décadas. Ojalá tengamos la entereza para evitarlo.



[1] Ya estamos viendo cómo se están culpando entre el jefe de gobierno Miguel Angel Mancera, el secretario de Educación Pública, Alvaro Nuño (dos aspirantes presidenciales) y la delegada en Tlalpan, Claudia Sheinbaum (aspirante al gobierno de la ciudad de México), por haber permitido la construcción deficiente de la escuela Enrique Rébsamen, en donde murieron 19 niños y 6 adultos.

sábado, 23 de septiembre de 2017

SEPTEMBER 22, 2017 counterpunch.org
How many citizens have ever asked themselves what the United States is doing in Korea in the first place?
In November of 1945, two months after the surrender of Japan, Army Chief of Staff General George Marshall spoke to President Truman and the chief figures of his cabinet about his fears of a “the tragic consequences of a divided China” as Chinese Nationalist forces and Communists resumed their struggle for power and Soviet forces seized control of large areas of Manchuria. The resumption of Soviet power in Manchuria Marshall emphasized would result “in the defeat or loss of the major purpose of our war with Japan (emphasis added).
What could the general have meant by such a statement? What WAS the “major purpose” of the Pacific war? Most Americans are taught that the foremost reason the United States went to war with Japan was the attack on Pearl Harbor. But the reality was that the U.S. and Japan had been on a collision course since the 1920s and by 1940, in the midst of the global depression, were locked in a mortal struggle over who would ultimately benefit most from the markets and resources of Greater China and East Asia. Japan’s Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere was steadily closing the “Open Door” to American penetration of and access to the profitable riches of Asia at the critical moment. As Japan militarily took control of East Asia the U.S. moved the Pacific Fleet to Hawaii in striking distance of Japan, imposed economic sanctions, embargoed steel and oil and in August 1941 issued an overt ultimatum to quit China and Vietnam “or else.” Seeing the latter as the threat it was Japan undertook what to Tokyo was the pre-emptive strike at Hawaii. The real reason the U.S. opposed the Japanese in Asia is never discussed and is a forbidden subject in the establishment media as are the real motives of American foreign policy writ large.
The U.S. had long envisioned profitable management of client regimes throughout greater East Asia. After Japanese surrender the U.S. wished to occupy as many of the numerous industrial plants Japan had built in East Asia the most important of which were in Manchuria and Korea.  Washington was also keenly anxious to preempt Soviet occupation of these territories. That is one major reason Truman decided to use the Atomic Bomb on a nation already reduced to cinders. It was also intended to induce Tokyo’s formal surrender only to the U.S. and not also to the Soviet Union since that would have enabled Soviet co-occupation of Japan itself and led to similar problems as were occurring in occupied Germany.
Politicians never use the term any more but the Open Door Policy remains the bedrock guiding strategy of American foreign policy writ large. Applicable to the entire planet the policy was enunciated specifically about the “great China market” (actually greater East Asia) but has evolved to encompass the planet. Simply stated it asserts that American finance and corporations should have untrammeled right of entry into the marketplaces of all nations and territories and access to their resources and cheaper labor power on American terms, sometimes diplomatically, often by armed violence. Consider the frame of reference of Edward Said who questioned in 2003 “if the principal product of Iraq were broccoli would the United States be in Iraq?” The U.S. has intervened militarily and covertly in so many nations it is impossible to recount them all but in every case the American military is protecting some investments of value to American corporations, or a strategic position or both.
Formulated in response to Japan’s war with China of 1894 that resulted in Japanese control of key Chinese and Korean territory and resources, the policy was announced in 1899 to forestall the establishment of autarkic “spheres of influence” across other areas of China and coastal Asia. Anxiety abounded among American business classes that beside Japan Russia was encroaching in Manchuria, that Britain would capitalize on its control of Hong Kong and Shanghai to enlarge its sphere, and that rapidly emergent Germany would also gain concessions, all circumstances potentially combining to close the door to the detriment of American desires to exploit China. Further south the French and Dutch were busy conquering territories later known as Vietnam and Indonesia.
Benign as they appeared the centrality of the Open Door notes cannot be overstated. The policy eventually extended the American “frontier” to the entire world. As enunciated its liberal language also asserted that such rights should also apply to all other nations. Yet as American financial and industrial dominance intensified in the early 19thCentury it soon became apparent to the U.S.’s rivals that Washington and Wall Street held most of the advantages and the policy would enable the U.S. effectively to outcompete them in the scramble for East Asia.
But the outbreak of World War I in 1914 soon eliminated most European empires as great powers. The prime beneficiaries of that self-inflicted calamity were the U.S. and Japan, and, some may say, ultimately the Soviet Union. The future of China and its environs was thereafter to be contested between the U.S., Japan, the USSR and the Chinese themselves.
In 1799 the American Museum of the China Trade was established by Boston sea captains calling themselves the East India Marine Society and is well visited today in Salem, Massachusetts. The members regularly undertook the dangerous journey around both Cape Horn and the Cape of Good Hope to profit themselves and their investors by opening commercial relations with a then powerful and integrated China which had not yet succumbed to the British predation that would undermine and fatally weaken that nation’s independence until the mid-Twentieth Century. Thus American interest in and, ultimately, obsession with China began more than two centuries ago.
By the mid-1840s the London based East India Company had wrested control of what is now modern India, Pakistan and Bangladesh and then set its sights upon China. The principal weapon involved was a peculiar agricultural commodity native to India that ultimately served to undermine Chinese sovereignty as surely as the cannon the company unleashed upon China’s ports. Unwilling to open their commercial doors to what in their own version of an open door the British called “free trade,” the Brits simply battered those portals down in a series of “Opium Wars” that progressively enfeebled China’s central authority and led inexorably to the addiction of millions of Chinese, all to the great profit of London’s elites. Greater East Asia would soon succumb also to the incursion of the French, Germans, Russians, Japanese, even the Italians, and ultimately the Americans. The Age of Imperialism had commenced and soon Japan, Korea, Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines would be targets as well. The seeds of the 20th Century’s Asian Wars were being sown.
Lagging behind much of Europe in industrializing and stifled by the Civil War the United States, like Japan and Germany, was a latecomer to the great game of imperialism but by the turn of the 20th Century the U.S. was poised to make its move toward what most of its elites believed was America’s fated destiny.
In 1853-54 President Millard Fillmore dispatched naval Commodore Mathew Perry to Japan with the mission to “open” that nation to American commerce and to serve as a staging area for further penetration of the continent itself. The Japanese had resisted relations with the West (as did Korea and Vietnam). When the Japanese refused Perry’s demands he demonstrated the power of American cannon, an event that shattered the complacency local daimyos had about their ability to resist western incursions. Under duress from a technologically and militarily more advanced society Japanese leaders undertook the total transformation of Japanese society, leading Japan to “modernize” along western lines in every respect to overnight became a formidable military power poised to compete with Europeans and Americans on their own terms in the “scramble” to occupy and exploit East Asia. When Japan occupied much of that very territory after 1932 the Pacific War became inevitable.
Immediately after the Civil War the U.S. Navy maintained a sustained presence throughout the Pacific Ocean especially in Japan, China, Korea and Vietnam where it undertook numerous armed interventions. This Asiatic Squadron’s mission was, as historian William Appleman Williams wrote, “to ensure law and order and ensure economic access…while preventing European powers…from obtaining privileges that would exclude Americans.”
By the 1890s ruling opinion demanded outlets beyond the landed frontier, to the Pacific and on to the Great China Market. Since native regimes would resist the rapacity of American penetration, as would imperial rivals, the strategy to expand markets would also require military exploits. The leading ideological exponent of the military approach was Alfred Thayer Mahan of the U.S. Navy whose work The Influence of Sea Power Upon History had enormous influence upon political elites like Theodore Roosevelt and Henry Cabot Lodge.  Mahan coupled his analysis of the economic and social crisis facing the U.S. to the anxieties of the business elites about their inability to sell their growing surpluses of industrial production and called upon political leaders to leap beyond the landed frontier to the oceans and establish “colonies” as markets for the surplus and bases from which to protect and administer them. This, in turn, would require the expansion of naval power, a proposition the emerging steel and ship building trusts and their Washington confederates, especially Roosevelt, leapt to initiate. Mahan’s gaze fell upon China whose population he considered “sheep without a shepherd.” Seeing the vast land as “inefficient” he contended that its people were not entitled to control their own country, and even proposed that its capital Peking (Beijing) be moved southward out of Russian influence to become “the core around which to develop a new China.” American efforts to that end would be pursued right up to 1949.
Responding to the international dissection of their country Chinese nationalists rose against all foreigners in what became known as the “Boxer Rebellion,” during which the U.S. and others dispatched troops to crush the insurrection. Casting themselves as unselfish the Open Door policymakers cared little about what the Chinese thought but were concerned only to stake the American claim and ensure that other imperial competitors could not close the door. Meanwhile its imperial competitors understood that the U.S. was now the most powerful industrial nation, able to out produce and undercut their own rivalry and therefore to close the door and doom themselves “to an inferior position.” Left purely to economic circumstances the outcome would ensure American predominance. But none of East Asia’s imperial plunderers, especially the Japanese, were willing to accept that. Nor, most importantly, were the Chinese themselves.
In response to the the weakness of the imperial Manchu throne to counter western and Japanese predation Sun Yat-Sen and the Kuomintang, or Chinese nationalists, overthrew the monarchy and declared China a republic. But China was highly fractured and the Kuomintang soon splintered. After World War I the Chinese communist Party began to grow in influence and power and after World War II would engage in a civil war won by the communists. In the immediate aftermath of WWII General Marshall was dispatched to China to broker a government composed of both communists and nationalists but this was a fool’s errand even though simultaneously he and others had received a promise from Stalin that the Soviets would not aid the Chinese communists. They had fought the Japanese as the Nationalists had not and popular support and the tide of history carried them to victory in 1949. Having sacrificed more than 150,000 American lives in mortal combat with Japan for control of China Washington was about to lose China to the Chinese. Of course they were the wrong Chinese from the perspective of America’s ruling elites, especially the Republicans who immediately charged the Truman Administration with the loss of China. Truman refused to recognize the new communist government and supported the regime of Chiang Kai-Shek (Jiang Jieshi) who had retreated to the island of Formosa, today Taiwan.
Perceiving the hostility of the United States and fearing inevitable armed attempts to overthrow communist power in China the new leaders of that nation prepared its defenses. They would soon require them in Korea.
The Soviet Union entered the war in Asia in its last phase. Russia had plenty of reason to war with Japan since Tokyo’s government had delivered that nation a humiliating defeat in 1904-1905 and annexed Russian territory in the Far East. So it was the Red Army that delivered the death blows to Japan on the mainland of Asia as an allyof the United States. American troops played no land combat role in China or Korea. Hoping for amicable relations with the U.S. given the agreements he had reached with President Franklin Roosevelt at Yalta Stalin agreed to a co-occupation of Korea under the auspices of a United Nations mandate to work out an agreement to reunify the tiny nation. Korea had existed as a unified and cohesive country, with its own unique language and culture, despite being almost enveloped by China’s land mass, for more than a millennium.
By 1910 however, Korea had been conquered and occupied as a Japanese slave colony Theodore Roosevelt actually endorsed Japanese rule as a means of “civilizing” Korea. The Japanese sought to annex Korea entirely as they later would in Manchuria. During the period of Japanese rule (1910-1945) a resistance movement grew eventually led by Kim Il-Sung, who had fled to Moscow and turned to Soviet communism, much as Ho Chi Minh had done in disgust at Woodrow Wilson’s dismissal of the nationalist aspirations of colonized Asians. The resistance in Korea won widespread support among Koreans. Most were deeply nationalistic partisans, not committed communists but, as in the case of Vietnam, turned their loyalties toward those leaders who resisted Japanese dictatorship and not those who collaborated with their subjugators. The Japanese found willing Koreans to serve as armed police to suppress their fellow Koreans. As events unfolded from 1945-1950 the forces of Kim remained largely in the north in the Soviet zone, though his movement also had widespread support in the south where numerous armed rebellions broke out against the southern regime sponsored by Washington and their right-wing South Korean clients.
As early as 1945 the American commander in the U.S. zone, General John Hodge, “declared war” on communists whom he identified with all hostile nationalists tied to Kim Il-Sung or not. Americans employed Japanese trained armed police who violently repressed those who resisted this extreme affront. The UN had called for a plebiscite throughout the peninsula but the north refused to participate primarily because the elections in the south were forcibly controlled by American occupation forces and their southern minions and voting was limited to landowners and taxpayers thereby eliminating most ordinary peasants and factory workers, the very people who would have voted for reunification under Kim (shades of Vietnam). Shortly after the government of Syngman Rhee was inaugurated as a result of this provocative and incendiary election a major revolt broke out on the southern island of Jeju. The response by the new extremely right-wing government, was swift and exterminative. Approximately 30,000 South Koreans were slaughtered.The Jeju massacre, as it came to be known, and numerous similar atrocious purges, were among the principal motivations that led Kim Il-Sung to attempt to unify Korea by force and remove the American client government in the south. In June 1950 Kim’s forces crossed the 38th parallel, the artificial border decided in Washington and agreed by the Soviets thus precipitating the three-year long Korean War that resulted in the deaths of three million Koreans and nearly 50,000 Americans
But Rhee’s government had been attempting to cross the border itself and on the very day that the war began South Korean forces also attacked the north. Which incursion was first is still debated. At first the North Koreans swept in and almost unified the peninsula on their terms. The American press demonized to the northern Koreans seeking to reunify what had for at least a millennium an integrated, single nation as “hordes” and “barbarians” illegally invading a separate and independent nation. Then calling upon the UN to authorize a military response by forces largely composed of American troops Truman intervened in this incipient civil war and thereby initiated a large scale and utterly cataclysmic one.
The northern forces overwhelmed both the Republic of Korea troops and the limited number of American soldiers already in the south. The UN Supreme Commander, Douglas MacArthur rapidly introduced numerous combat ready troops and air power and routed the northerners and drove them back across the border. Though the UN mandate limited the military response to repelling the North Koreans MacArthur ignored orders and drove toward the Chinese border, believing that the communists would not react. But China’s foreign minister, Zhou En-Lai, warned in no uncertain terms that China would not allow American troops anywhere near China and on June Chinese troops crossed the border. Eventually numbering almost a million these forces inflicted what the U.S. Secretary of State, Dean Acheson, described as the “worst defeat since Bull Run.” Actually the rout was the worst defeat in American history for American forces by foreign troops. The legendary 1st Marine Division was sent reeling but insisted they were “advancing to the rear.”
In truth the Chinese, under ordinary military circumstances could have driven the UN Army off the peninsula entirely but the atomic bomb had changed the nature of large scale land war. Both Truman and MacArthur and, later, President Eisenhower, threatened the use of the Bomb and that resulted in Chinese withdrawal to roughly the original border. What followed was an armistice (merely a ceasefire: a technical state of war still exists) that remains in effect today although numerous infractions of its terms have been committed by both the U.S. and the Koreans on both sides. The one of most relevance to the crisis ongoing today is the U.S. repudiation of Paragraph 13(d) which obliged both sides not to introduce new weapons on the peninsula. In 1956 Eisenhower, with full support of the National Security Council, unilaterally abrogated Paragraph 13(d). By 1958 short range nuclear capable missiles were deployed in South Korea.
No threat worthy of nukes emanated from North Korea. Nor was it capable of launching another cross border attack. At least 20 % of the north’s population had been killed. All of its cities and towns were destroyed; its crops inundated and ruined in 1953when the American Air Force destroyed the dams along the Yalu River (a violation of the Geneva Convention. Nazis had been tried for exactly that war crime). North Korea was never weaker than during this period.
The message Washington wished to send was directed at both China and the Soviet Union, which had just launched Sputnik, effectively demonstrating its capacity to launch Inter-Continental Ballistic Missiles that intense Cold War propaganda continued to claim were intended to pose an existential threat to the national security of the United States though Soviet ICBMs were developed in response and as a deterrent to the overwhelming air superiority and threat of the U.S.’s nuclear armed fleet of B-52 bombers, the Strategic Air Command.
The message broadcast unmistakably stipulated that America’s foot was still in the door where Washington intended it to stay and which stance it intended to defend by any means necessary. There it remains today. For their part responding in grave alarm to this deadly game of atomic chess the Chinese, and later North Korea, initiated the processes by which both would acquire nuclear weapons of their own.
Which leads us finally to today’s crisis.
A Gallup poll issued last week showed that a majority of Americans, 58%, favor war with Korea if a peaceful resolution fails. The figure climbs to 82% among Republicans. This is madness of the first order. A peaceful resolution is more than possible if the American public wakes up to realities (of the present and past) and demands such an outcome. Diplomacy actually stopped North Korea’s earlier efforts to build nukes and then in each case the U.S. violated the terms. It can happen again but the United States government will not do what is necessary owing to the longstanding commitment to the Open Door. Just this week Defense Secretary and former Marine Corps General James Mattis proposed the use of tactical nuclear weapons with his South Korean counterparts though his pronouncements to the American public insist that diplomacy is the first choice. An attack on Korea will be unimaginably cataclysmic and has every potential to threaten China and Russia and enflame nuclear apocalypse. Either we accept a nuclear armed North Korea, and that means also in all probability a nuclear armed Japan, and perhaps even South Korea, with all the increased and acute jeopardy that entails, or we accede to a catastrophic, destabilizing and potentially all out cataclysm, or the American public somehow awakens from its fantasies of exceptionalism, and realizes that the essence of U.S. foreign policy has always been aggressive and exploitive in contradiction to our claims. Eisenhower’s warning about the “Military-Industrial Complex” has become a cliche but he was dead serious. The most powerful, and decisive branch of the American ruling class is that faction and it has held sway since 1945. Unless the public comprehends that this reality has brought us to the brink of global catastrophe, and then demands a fundamental reordering of our national priorities we face a  future fraught with extreme jeopardy.
The latest heir to the North Korean throne, Kim Jong-Un, like all despots, wishes above all to remain in power. The North Koreans are not jihadists intent on martyrdom. It is perfectly clear to any rational observer that North Korean nukes are intended as a deterrent to Washington’s nukes, which, history demonstrates, is based on obvious reality. They are not a means to suicide. At the same time if Kim believes his avowed enemy will try to overthrow his rule he will unleash what we now know is a formidable arsenal of conventional weapons on the southern capital of Seoul, where more than 20 million people live including about 200,000 Americans, civilians and military personnel. A conventional attack alone will result in millions of deaths and injuries and will destroy the 5th largest economy on the planet, in which American capital has been heavily invested, both in the military-industrial complex and, since the 1950s the creation of the modern Korean industrial and financial system (Think Hyundai auto and steel, Samsung. Where did their capital originate? Why did American capital abandon what is now the Rust Belt for better financial and profit climes in Asia?). Such a war will involve millions of refugees, many streaming into China and Russia, both of which share borders with Korea. But since we also know that the northern regime has nuclear weapons which will be launched at American bases and Japan, we ought to be screaming from the rooftops that an American attack will unleash those nukes, potentially on all sides, and the ensuing desolation may rapidly devolve into a nightmarish day of reckoning for the entire human species.
Korea remains divided today because the armistice that ended warfare in 1953 was enacted because of China’s intervention and because the U.S. could not wage total war on China because that would have set off World War III and very possibly nuclear war with the Soviet Union. Absent those facts and overwhelming American firepower would have crushed North Korea. Under no circumstances, however, would China or Russia, have allowed this outcome then or now. Nor will they sit passively and allow a colossal inferno and nuclear radiation to envelop much of northeast coastal Asia today though if that commences then catastrophe follows. To be frank, an American attack on North Korea, even with conventional weapons, will immediately turn nuclear on the North Korean side. South Korea, Japan and American bases within range will be targeted and the American response will also be nuclear. I doubt that any bookie would take bets that China and Russia will remain passive and neutral.
For more than a century China has resisted and fought against foreign domination and intervention, as have most of the nations of Asia. China is now a superpower and despite calling itself communist it is a formidable capitalist competitor with the West and Japan. When American policy strategists finally had to concede that China had indeed been lost to American financial and commercial dominance in the early 1950s they immediately turned their attention to the remainder of East Asia. Thus the calamity visited upon Vietnam: Thus massacres and purges in Cambodia, Laos, Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines, East Timor. If China itself closed the open door then American ruling class strategy resolved to keep it open throughout the rest of Asia. That is why the Obama Administration (with much influence from Hillary Clinton) conceived the military “pivot to Asia” paralleled by the Trans Pacific Partnership, which aimed at corporate supremacy over governmental regulations, both foreign and domestic, and now on hold in the Trump administration
The U.S. will always be able to trade with any other nation if it accepts that this cannot be on rigidly American terms. That policy is dead in Asia. While Washington has sought global dominance since the end of WWII, it has never achieved it and never will. The attempt will bring on nuclear catastrophe. I am always telling my students that the very existence of nuclear weapons in the current framework of the world’s international relations is like leaving a loaded handgun in a childcare center. Sooner or Later! But some students answer: A child care center has responsible adults who will ensure the threat is removed! Listening to the overt threats emanating from Trump himself, Secretary Mattis, UN ambassador Haley, National Security Adviser General McMaster, and Senator Lindsay Graham leaves one reeling with profound apprehension and incredulity about the sanity of such “leaders.”
All signs indicate that global warming and climate change will in the near future bring increasing human-made disasters that have every potential to increase refugees, political ruptures and more potential for war.  The only sane response is an all-out effort at global cooperation to minimize this worldwide threat and a repudiation of the geo-politics of the past. Trump’s speech to the United Nations this week repudiates the very founding basis of that institution.

The only rational and sane policy as a foundation for de-escalation is for diplomatic talks to begin among North Korea, South Korea, China, Russia and the U.S with a firm commitment from Washington to sign a formal peace treaty and to withdraw its troops and armaments from South Korea in exchange for the disassembly of North Korea’s nuclear program. China especially, also Russia would oversee the north’s nuclear disarmament. South Korea is well armed itself and does not need the U.S. to protect it and neither China nor Russia wants another war on the Korean peninsula. Nor, most importantly, do most Koreans. The U.S. has been there since 1945 to keep its foot in the door to Asia and safeguard what it has long seen as its entitlement to profit, not to protect democracy. The Open Door Policy on American terms can never be achieved. China, like it or not, will be the dominant power in East Asia and most of the other nations of Asia are coming round to accept this because the alternative is a losing proposition. The U.S. and China can find grounds for further mutually advantageous and amicable political and economic relations but these will have to be on reciprocal and honest grounds. The U.S. can also continue mutual relations with all the other nations of Asia but not on terms dictated by Washington and the major banks and corporations. The best start is for Washington to take its foot out of the door in Korea before it is too late but only a determined and truthfully informed public can make this happen.