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sábado, 30 de septiembre de 2023

Moscow Announces Massive Military Spending Increase to Combat NATO’s ‘Hybrid War’ in Ukraine

by Connor Freeman | Sep 28, 2023

https://libertarianinstitute.org/news/moscow-announces-massive-military-spending-increase-to-combat-natos-hybrid-war-in-ukraine/

Moscow announced that it plans to increase military spending by nearly 70% in 2024 as it fights against what the Kremlin has dubbed NATO’s “hybrid war.” Russia’s defense budget next year, which is dwarfed by the Pentagon budget, will still be less than the total amount the US has already pledged to assist Kiev in its proxy war with Moscow.

Russia’s Finance Ministry published a document on Thursday explaining that Moscow is set to ramp up defense spending by a whopping 68% to 10.8 trillion rubles ($111.15 billion) next year.

At the same time, the Pentagon budget is fast approaching $900 billion, greater than the next ten highest-spending countries combined, while total yearly spending on the national security state is almost $1.5 trillion.

The document adds, “the focus of economic policy is shifting from an anti-crisis agenda to the promotion of national development goals… [including] strengthening [Russia’s] defense capacity.”

The additional funding is also needed for the process of “integrating” the four regions of Ukraine which Moscow has annexed since its invasion began, namely Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.

Additionally, draft outlines for Russia’s budget for the next three years show that – due to an adjustment in the budget rule – an extra 1.7 trillion rubles ($17.72 billion) will be made available in spending from oil and gas revenues.

“It is obvious that such an increase is necessary, absolutely necessary, because we are in a state of hybrid war, we are continuing the special military operation,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said referring to escalated military spending.

“I’m referring to the hybrid war that has been unleashed against us,” he added. Russian Foreign Minister Serey Lavrov has recently railed against Washington, stating “no matter what it says, it [the US] controls this war, it supplies weapons, [munitions], intelligence information, data from satellites, it is pursuing a war against us.”

Kiev relies on Western intelligence for its myriad drone strikes in Crimea as well as Moscow and elsewhere on the Russian mainland. The tripwires for direct conflict between the US and Russia will be tested as the White House is preparing to provide Kiev with a cluster bomb variant of the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) which have a range of approximately 200 miles. The US has also attempted to isolate Russia from the rest of the world by launching an economic war using sanctions designed to be the “economic equivalent of a nuclear weapon.”

NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg now concedes Russia’s invasion in February 2022 was a response to the US-led military bloc’s expansion to Russia’s borders and the alliance’s unwillingness to negotiate security guarantees with Moscow.

Since then, Washington has pledged $113 billion to back Kiev in its proxy war with the Kremlin. About $100 billion in weapons and military equipment have been transferred to Ukraine by the US and its allies. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, along with hawks in the legislature, declared the US policy is intended to “weaken” Moscow and cripple its military.

Despite Washington’s agenda, Gen. Christopher Cavoli, the commander of US European Command, told the House Armed Services Committee this year that Russia’s ground forces are “bigger today” than before the invasion. Moreover, Cavoli noted that losses to the Russian air force and navy were negligible.

Russia’s announcement regarding the boost in military spending came as Stoltenberg visited Kiev – with the defense ministers of France and the UK – and promised President Volodymyr Zelensky that “NATO will stand with Ukraine for as long as it takes.”

One of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s key demands rejected by NATO in Moscow’s security proposals just prior to the invasion was Ukrainian neutrality, which Stoltenberg described as a “a pre-condition for not [invading] Ukraine.” During a speech to the European Union Parliament earlier this month, NATO’s Secretary General boasted “of course we didn’t sign that.”

In the months leading up to the invasion, Kiev was already being treated by Washington as a de facto NATO member. During a press conference in Kiev on Thursday, Stoltenberg  claimed “Ukraine is now closer to NATO than ever before.”

viernes, 29 de septiembre de 2023

 MÉXICO ANTE ESTADOS UNIDOS

En 2024 habrá elecciones presidenciales y para el Congreso[1] en México y Estados Unidos, como sucede cada 12 años, y numerosos temas de la compleja relación bilateral formarán parte del debate y las propuestas de los candidatos en ambos lados de la frontera.

Para los gobiernos de Estados Unidos, sin importar si son Demócratas o Republicanos, México es considerado como un “protectorado”[2] de facto, aunque no lo sea de jure. Es decir, sus políticas públicas requieren del visto bueno y en ocasiones de la intervención directa de los Estados Unidos, para que se puedan implementar.

México forma parte de lo que el establecimiento político-militar estadounidense considera como su “imperativo categórico”, esto es el espacio que se considera de vital importancia para la sobrevivencia del Estado norteamericano.

Canadá, México, el Caribe y Centroamérica tienen una prioridad alta dentro del esquema de seguridad nacional de Estados Unidos, en donde no están dispuestos a permitir amenazas a su existencia o predominio.

Por ello el que Cuba, desde hace 64 años y más recientemente Nicaragua (primero de 1979 a 1990 con la Revolución Sandinista; y después, en la segunda presidencia de Daniel Ortega de 2007 a la fecha)  no estén claramente subordinados al dominio estadounidense, es considerado como un peligro permanente para los intereses de Washington en América Latina, y como una grave vulnerabilidad dentro de su estrategia de seguridad nacional.

Asimismo, los recursos naturales de México y la mano de obra mexicana son consideradas por las élites de Washington como “activos” dentro de la hegemonía estadounidense, que deben jugar en favor del poderío de Estados Unidos en el mantenimiento de su hegemonía mundial; y como factores que sumen en su favor en la competencia estratégica con China y Rusia, en la nueva Guerra Fría que se ha desarrollado en la última década con estas dos potencias.

De ahí que, la crisis migratoria (una más en los últimos 10 años) en la frontera entre ambos países (y en el caso de México, también en su frontera sur); el poder de los cárteles mexicanos del narcotráfico, con su contrabando de drogas a Estados Unidos y especialmente de fentanilo, que ahora es el causante de decenas de miles de muertes por sobredosis allende el Bravo; las decisiones “nacionalistas” del gobierno de López Obrador sobre darle prioridad a las empresas estatales en materia de producción y distribución de petróleo, gas y electricidad; así como de proteger el maíz criollo del país y prohibir el transgénico que viene de Estados Unidos, para consumo humano; han generado un fuerte sentimiento “antimexicano” dentro de las élites estadounidenses, y por lo tanto una tendencia a “intervenir” enérgicamente para que su vecino del sur se oriente hacia los intereses y decisiones estadounidenses.

Por ello el gobierno de Joe Biden ya no puede detener el próximo inicio de los paneles de solución de controversias para los casos energético y de maíz transgénico, que en caso de ser desfavorables para México, implicarían aranceles para los productos de exportación mexicanos por más de 30 mil millones de dólares (si bien México, junto con Canadá, ya ganaron el panel de controversias sobre los subsidios a la industria automotriz estadounidense, lo que le permitiría a nuestro gobierno responder en alguna medida, con aranceles por varios miles de millones de dólares por este caso).

De la misma forma, los precandidatos a la presidencia del Partido Republicano han manifestado que de una u otra forma, atacarán a los cárteles mexicanos, para detener el contrabando de fentanilo a los Estados Unidos. Ya sea “cerrando” la frontera entre ambos países; o atacando dentro de territorio mexicano los laboratorios en donde los cárteles elaboran las drogas con fentanilo que mandan a Estados Unidos (con misiles o con grupos de operaciones especiales); incluso, si es necesario, sin la aprobación del gobierno mexicano.

Además, es posible que la estancada guerra de Rusia y Ucrania siga generando divisiones en la sociedad internacional y la posición de México respecto al conflicto tendrá que aclararse, en vista de que el presidente López Obrador, aunque ha condenado formalmente la invasión rusa, no se ha sumado a las sanciones contra Moscú; y por ello en Occidente y en Estados Unidos en particular, seguramente desearán que la próxima administración pueda sumarse a la coalición anti rusa que lidera Washington.

Las dos precandidatas a la presidencia de México, Claudia Sheinbaum por parte de la coalición gobernante y Xóchitl Gálvez, por parte del frente opositor, no han manifestado ninguna posición respecto a estos temas cruciales de la relación con Estados Unidos, y para cuando cualquiera de ellas llegue a tomar el poder, el 1º de octubre del próximo año, lo más probable es que ya estén avanzados los paneles en materia energética y respecto al maíz transgénico; es posible que el gobierno de Biden, faltando entonces apenas un mes para las elecciones estadounidenses, decida endurecer su política anti inmigrante y fortalezca la presencia militar en la frontera. Y no se puede descartar que, dependiendo de lo cerrado que esté la competencia con él partido Republicano, Biden esté dispuesto a realizar acciones unilaterales contra los cárteles mexicanos del narcotráfico.

Así que la primera presidenta de México se va a encontrar con un “coctel” explosivo en la relación con Estados Unidos, y que bien puede empeorar en los siguientes meses, si el candidato republicano resulta el ganador, -visto que la posición de dicho partido es mucho más beligerante contra México que la de Biden-; por lo que es necesario que desde ahora los equipos que rodean a Sheinbaum y Gálvez vayan estableciendo escenarios y posibles estrategias ante las diferentes eventualidades que se pueden presentar en la relación bilateral, si se quiere evitar un inicio de administración improvisado, reactivo y sin objetivos claros, que bien puede resultar para los estadounidenses en un panorama muy favorable para hacer avanzar aún más sus intereses sobre los de México.



[1] En México se renuevan completas las cámaras de Diputados y Senadores; mientras en Estados Unidos se renueva completa la Cámara de Representantes y un tercio del Senado.

[2] Según Georg Shwarzenberger en su libro La Política del Poder (Fondo de Cultura Económica; México; 1ª edición en español 1960; trad. por Julieta Campos y Enrique González Pedrero): “Los protectorados internacionales…son casos límites entre el imperialismo y el colonialismo. Si bien se deja al Estado protegido con un residuo de su soberanía, el status de dependencia se deriva todavía del consentimiento del Estado protegido y el ejercicio de los poderes del Estado protector sobre el estado protegido es el de una potencia extranjera. No obstante, esta etapa marca la transición del imperialismo al dominio colonial abierto “ (p.160).

jueves, 28 de septiembre de 2023

Biden’s Middle East deal is a disaster

Saudi Arabia has recognized Washington’s anxiety about losing its position to China and is pressing for major concessions.

JONATHAN HOFFMAN

SEP 27, 2023

https://responsiblestatecraft.org/biden-deal-saudi-arabia-israel/

The Biden administration is currently considering going where no other president has gone before: offering a formal security guarantee to Saudi Arabia and helping the kingdom develop a civilian nuclear program in return for Riyadh normalizing relations with Israel.

President Biden and his team argue that the United States has a national security interest in brokering such a deal, even if that means massive and unprecedented concessions to Riyadh.

Biden and his team are wrong. Entering into a mutual security agreement with Saudi Arabia would represent a catastrophic miscalculation. A security guarantee for Saudi Arabia would entrap Washington as Riyadh’s protector despite a fundamental disconnect between the interests and values of the United States and the kingdom.

Saudi Arabia seeks increased security commitments in return for formally normalizing relations with Israel, a country with which it is already strategically aligned. This is part of a deliberate strategy by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) to exploit growing fears in Washington that the United States is losing influence in the Middle East relative to other actors such as Russia or China.

As the Wall Street Journal reported, “in private, Saudi officials said, the crown prince has said he expects that by playing major powers against each other, Saudi Arabia can eventually pressure Washington to concede to its demands for better access to U.S. weapons and nuclear technology.”

And yet, though Russia and China have expanded their respective footprints in the Middle East, neither Moscow nor Beijing can fill an American void in the Middle East, nor do they desire to. States within the region are aware of the limitations facing Russia and China. Saudi Arabia and other U.S. regional partners have cultivated Washington’s anxiety about losing its position relative to Russia or China and are pressing for major policy concessions, resulting in a type of “reverse leverage.”

The pinnacle of this reverse leverage strategy is the peekaboo game MbS is playing with the United States over whether Saudi Arabia will join the so-called Abraham Accords. Since the introduction of the Accords in 2020 by President Donald Trump – which witnessed Israel formally normalize relations with Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), later expanded to also include Sudan and Morocco – U.S. and Israeli officials have been determined to add Saudi Arabia to the mix.

The Abraham Accords have become the new “lodestar” of U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East. Through these series of normalization deals, the United States hopes to create a more formal coalition through which it believes it can best advance its interests, namely by maintaining its regional influence amid Russian and Chinese “encroachment” while also allocating more attention to other global theaters such as Eastern Europe and the Pacific.

However, regional actors are increasingly using the Accords as a mechanism to keep the United States entangled in the region as the continued guarantor of their security. The Arab states that joined the Abraham Accords were granted considerable policy concessions for doing so without any serious debate as to whether such tradeoffs served the interests of the United States. They interpret the Accords as a mechanism for maintaining the regional status quo – with more concrete and integrated U.S. security guarantees undergirding it.

This is precisely the lens through which Riyadh views its possible entry into the Abraham Accords: as a way to pressure the United States into granting the kingdom sweeping concessions and guaranteeing Washington remains its ultimate protector over the long term. Washington’s ongoing support for actors like Saudi Arabia has resulted in a vicious cycle: by committing itself to propping up the underlying sources of regional instability, the United States repeatedly finds itself having to confront challenges that are largely the product of its own presence, policies, and partners in the Middle East. Making things even more obscene, Washington may be deepening its commitment to these illiberal states at a time when it has become clear that the region hardly matters to U.S. national security.

The United States must decide whether it will continue underwriting actors such as Saudi Arabia and the artificial status quo in the Middle East, or whether it will recognize the failures of its own policies and limit its involvement to a level commensurate with U.S. interests.

miércoles, 27 de septiembre de 2023

A YEAR OF LYING ABOUT NORD STREAM

The Biden administration has acknowledged neither its responsibility for the pipeline bombing nor the purpose of the sabotage

SEYMOUR HERSH

26 SEPT 2023

https://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/a-year-of-lying-about-nord-stream

I do not know much about covert CIA operations—no outsider can—but I do understand that the essential component of all successful missions is total deniability. The American men and women who moved, under cover, in and out of Norway in the months it took to plan and carry out the destruction of three of the four Nord Stream pipelines in the Baltic Sea a year ago left no traces—not a hint of the team’s existence—other than the success of their mission. 

Deniability, as an option for President Joe Biden and his foreign policy advisers, was paramount. No significant information about the mission was put on a computer, but instead typed on a Royal or perhaps a Smith Corona typewriter with a carbon copy or two, as if the Internet and the rest of the online world had yet to be invented. The White House was isolated from the goings-on near Oslo; various reports and updates from the field were directly provided to CIA Director Bill Burns, who was the only link between the planners and the president who authorized the mission to take place on September 26, 2022. Once the mission was completed, the typed papers and carbons were destroyed, thus leaving no physical trace—no evidence to be dug up later by a special prosecutor or a presidential historian. You could call it the perfect crime.

There was a flaw—a gap in understanding between those who carried out the mission and President Biden, as to why he ordered the destruction of the pipelines when he did. My initial 5,200-word report, published in early February, ended cryptically by quoting an official with knowledge of the mission telling me: “It was a beautiful cover story.” The official added: “The only flaw was the decision to do it.” 

This is the first account of that flaw, on the one-year anniversary of the explosions, and it is one President Biden and his national security team will not like.

Inevitably, my initial story caused a sensation, but the major media emphasized the White House denials and relied on an old canard—my reliance on an unnamed source—to join the administration in debunking the notion that Joe Biden could have had anything to do with such an attack. I must note here that I’ve won literally scores of prizes in my career for stories in the New York Times and the New Yorker that relied on not a single named source. In the past year we’ve seen a series of contrary newspaper stories, with no named first-hand sources, claiming that a dissident Ukrainian group carried out the technical diving operation attack in the Baltic Sea via a 49-foot rented yacht called the Andromeda

I am now able to write about the unexplained flaw cited by the unnamed official. It goes once again to the classic issue of what the Central Intelligence Agency is all about: an issue raised by Richard Helms, who headed the agency during the tumultuous years of the Vietnam War and the CIA’s secret spying on Americans, as ordered by President Lyndon Johnson and sustained by Richard Nixon. I published an exposé in the Times about that spying in December 1974 that led to unprecedented hearings by the Senate into the role of the agency in its unsuccessful attempts, authorized by President John F. Kennedy, to assassinate Cuba’s Fidel Castro. Helms told the senators that the issue was whether he, as CIA director, worked for the Constitution or for the Crown, in the person of presidents Johnson and Nixon. The Church Committee left the issue unresolved, but Helms made it clear he and his agency worked for the top man in the White House. 

Back to the Nord Stream pipelines: It is important to understand that no Russian gas was flowing to Germany through the Nord Stream pipelines when Joe Biden ordered them blown up last September 26. Nord Stream 1 had been supplying vast amounts of low-cost natural gas to Germany since 2011 and helped bolster Germany’s status as a manufacturing and industrial colossus. But it was shut down by Putin by the end of August 2022, as the Ukraine war was, at best, in a stalemate. Nord Stream 2 was completed in September 2021 but was blocked from delivering gas by the German government headed by Chancellor Olaf Scholz two days prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Given Russia’s vast stores of natural gas and oil, American presidents since John F. Kennedy have been alert to the potential weaponization of these natural resources for political purposes. That view remains dominant among Biden and his hawkish foreign policy advisers, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, and Victoria Nuland, now the acting deputy to Blinken.

Sullivan convened a series of high-level national security meetings late in 2021, as Russia was building up its forces along the border of Ukraine, with an invasion seen as almost inevitable. The group, which included representatives from the CIA, was urged to come up with a proposal for action that could serve as a deterrent to Putin. The mission to destroy the pipelines was motivated by the White House’s determination to support Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky. Sullivan’s goal seemed clear. “The White House’s policy was to deter Russia from an attack,” the official told me. “The challenge it gave to the intelligence community was to come up with a way that was powerful enough to do that, and to make a strong statement of American capability.”

I now know what I did not know then: the real reason why the Biden administration “brought up taking out the Nord Stream pipeline.” The official recently explained to me that at the time Russia was supplying gas and oil throughout the world via more than a dozen pipelines, but Nord Stream 1 and 2 ran directly from Russia through the Baltic Sea to Germany. “The administration put Nord Stream on the table because it was the only one we could access and it would be totally deniable,” the official said. “We solved the problem within a few weeks—by early January—and told the White House. Our assumption was that the president would use the threat against Nord Stream as a deterrent to avoid the war.”

It was no surprise to the agency’s secret planning group when on January 27, 2022, the assured and confident Nuland, then undersecretary of state for political affairs, stridently warned Putin that if he invaded Ukraine, as he clearly was planning to, that “one way or another Nord Stream 2 will not move forward.” The line attracted enormous attention, but the words preceding the threat did not. The official State Department transcript shows that she preceded her threat by saying that with regard to the pipeline: “We continue to have very strong and clear conversations with our German allies.”

Asked by a reporter how she could say with certainty that the Germans would go along “because what the Germans have said publicly doesn’t match what you’re saying,” Nuland responded with an astonishing bit of doubletalk: “I would say go back and read the document that we signed in July [of 2021] that made very clear about the consequences for the pipeline if there is further aggression on Ukraine by Russia.” But that agreement, which was briefed to journalists, did not specify threats or consequences, according to reports in the Times, the Washington Post, and Reuters. At the time of the agreement, on July 21, 2021, Biden told the press corps that since the pipeline was 99 percent finished, “the idea that anything was going to be said or done was going to stop it was not possible.” At the time, Republicans, led by Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, depicted Biden’s decision to permit the Russian gas to flow as a “generational geopolitical win” for Putin and “a catastrophe” for the United States and its allies. 

But two weeks after Nuland’s statement, on February 7, 2022, at a joint White House press conference with the visiting Scholz, Biden signaled that he had changed his mind and was joining Nuland and other equally hawkish foreign policy aides in talking about stopping the pipeline. “If Russia invades—that means tanks and troops crossing . . . the border of Ukraine again,” he said, “there will no longer be a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it.” Asked how he could do so since the pipeline was under Germany’s control, he said: “We will, I promise you, we’ll be able to do it.”

Scholz, asked the same question, said: “We are acting together. We are absolutely united, and we will not be taking different steps. We will do the same steps, and they will be very very hard to Russia, and they should understand.” The German leader was considered then—and now—by some members of the CIA team to be fully aware of the secret planning underway to destroy the pipelines. 

By this point, the CIA team had made the necessary contacts in Norway, whose navy and special forces commands have a long history of sharing covert-operation duties with the agency. Norwegian sailors and Nasty-class patrol boats helped smuggle American sabotage operatives into North Vietnam in the early 1960s when America, in both the Kennedy and Johnson administrations, was running an undeclared American war there. With Norway’s help, the CIA did its job and found a way to do what the Biden White House wanted done to the pipelines. 

At the time, the challenge to the intelligence community was to come up with a plan that would be forceful enough to deter Putin from the attack on Ukraine. The official told me: “We did it. We found an extraordinary deterrent because of its economic impact on Russia. And Putin did it despite the threat.” It took months of research and practice in the churning waters of the Baltic Sea by the two expert US Navy deep sea divers recruited for the mission before it was deemed a go. Norway’s superb seamen found the right spot for planting the bombs that would blow up the pipelines. Senior officials in Sweden and Denmark, who still insist they had no idea what was going on in their shared territorial waters, turned a blind eye to the activities of the American and Norwegian operatives. The American team of divers and support staff on the mission’s mother ship—a Norwegian minesweeper—would be hard to hide while the divers were doing their work. The team would not learn until after the bombing that Nord Stream 2 had been shut down with 750 miles of natural gas in it.

What I did not know then, but was told recently, was that after Biden’s extraordinary public threat to blow up Nord Stream 2, with Scholz standing next to him, the CIA planning group was told by the White House that there would be no immediate attack on the two pipelines, but the group should arrange to plant the necessary bombs and be ready to trigger them “on demand”—after the war began. “It was then that we”—the small planning group that was working in Oslo with the Royal Norwegian Navy and special services on the project—“understood that the attack on the pipelines was not a deterrent because as the war went on we never got the command.”

After Biden’s order to trigger the explosives planted on the pipelines, it took only a short flight with a Norwegian fighter and the dropping of an altered off-the-shelf sonar device at the right spot in the Baltic Sea to get it done. By then the CIA group had long disbanded. By then, too, the official told me: “We realized that the destruction of the two Russian pipelines was not related to the Ukrainian war”—Putin was in the process of annexing the four Ukrainian oblasts he wanted—“but was part of a neocon political agenda to keep Scholz and Germany, with winter coming up and the pipelines shut down, from getting cold feet and opening up” the shuttered Nord Stream 2. “The White House fear was that Putin would get Germany under his thumb and then he was going to get Poland.”

The White House said nothing as the world wondered who committed the sabotage. “So the president struck a blow against the economy of Germany and Western Europe,” the official told me. “He could have done it in June and told Putin: We told you what we would do.” The White House’s silence and denials were, he said, “a betrayal of what we were doing. If you are going to do it, do it when it would have made a difference.”

The leadership of the CIA team viewed Biden’s misleading guidance for its order to destroy the pipelines, the official told me, “as taking a strategic step toward World War III. What if Russia had responded by saying: You blew up our pipelines and I’m going to blow up your pipelines and your communication cables. Nord Stream was not a strategic issue for Putin—it was an economic issue. He wanted to sell gas. He’d already lost his pipelines” when the Nord Stream I and 2 were shut down before the Ukraine war began. 

Within days of the bombing, officials in Denmark and Sweden announced they would conduct an investigation. They reported two months later that there had indeed been an explosion and said there would be further inquiries. None has emerged. The German government conducted an inquiry but announced that major parts of its findings would be classified. Last winter German authorities allocated $286 billion in subsidies to major corporations and homeowners who faced higher energy bills to run their business and warm their homes. The impact is still being felt today, with a colder winter expected in Europe.

President Biden waited four days before calling the pipeline bombing “a deliberate act of sabotage.” He said: “now the Russians are pumping out disinformation about it.” Sullivan, who chaired the meetings that led to the proposal to covertly destroy the pipelines, was asked at a later press conference whether the Biden administration “now believes that Russia was likely responsible for the act of sabotage?” 

Sullivan’s answer, undoubtedly practiced, was: “Well, first, Russia has done what it frequently does when it is responsible for something, which is make accusations that it was really someone else who did it. We’ve seen this repeatedly over time.

“But the president was also clear today that there is more work to do on the investigation before the United States government is prepared to make an attribution in this case.” He continued: “We will continue to work with our allies and partners to gather all of the facts, and then we will make a determination about where we go from there.”

I could find no instances when Sullivan was subsequently asked by someone in the American press about the results of his “determination.” Nor could I find any evidence that Sullivan, or the president, has been queried since then about the results of the “determination” about where to go. 

There is also no evidence that President Biden has required the American intelligence community to conduct a major all-source inquiry into the pipeline bombing. Such requests are known as “Taskings” and are taken seriously inside the government.

All of this explains why a routine question I posed a month or so after the bombings to someone with many years in the American intelligence community led me to a truth that no one in America or Germany seems to want to pursue. My question was simple: “Who did it?” 

The Biden administration blew up the pipelines but the action had little to do with winning or stopping the war in Ukraine. It resulted from fears in the White House that Germany would waver and turn on the flow of Russia gas—and that Germany and then NATO, for economic reasons, would fall under the sway of Russia and its extensive and inexpensive natural resources. And thus followed the ultimate fear: that America would lose its long-standing primacy in Western Europe.

martes, 26 de septiembre de 2023

Drug cartel turf battles cut off towns in southern Mexico state of Chiapas, near Guatemala border

BY EDGAR H. CLEMENTE

Updated 1:24 PM GMT-6, September 25, 2023

https://apnews.com/article/mexico-drug-cartels-chiapas-c8fa374e43995601fec3bec251aa3f27

TAPACHULA, Mexico (AP) — Drug cartel turf battles cut off a series of towns in the southern Mexico state of Chiapas, near the Guatemala border, Mexico’s president acknowledged Monday.

President Andrés Manuel López Obrador said that the cartels have cut off electrical power in some towns, and forbidden government workers from coming in to the largely rural area to fix power lines.

He said the cartels were fighting for control of the drug smuggling routes that lead into southern Mexico from Central America. But the area around the town of Frontera Comalapa is also a valuable route for smuggling immigrants, thousands of who have clambered aboard trains to reach the U.S. border.

The Sinaloa cartel is fighting the Jalisco New Generation cartel for control of the area, located in a rural, mountainous area north of the border city of Tapachula.

Four men, apparently members of the Jalisco cartel, were found dead over the weekend in a nearby town, according to an employee of the Chiapas state prosecutor’s office who spoke on condition of anonymity because the person was not authorized to be quoted by name.

The local Roman Catholic Diocese said in a statement over the weekend that cartels were practicing forced recruitment among local residents, and had “taken over our territory,” blocking roads and causing shortages of basic goods.

López Obrador also appeared to lend credence to videos posted over the weekend, showing residents applauding about 20 pickup trucks full of armed Sinaloa cartel gunmen as they entered one Chiapas town. The president said the cartels might be forcing or bribing residents into acting as civilian supports, known in Mexico as “social bases.”

“On the side of the highway there are people apparently welcoming them,” López Obrador said of the video, which shows uniformed men aboard the trucks brandishing rifles and machine guns mounted on turrets. Voices in the video can be heard shouting phrases like “Pure Sinaloa people!”

“These may be support bases, like those in some parts of the country, because they give them food packages, or out of fear, because they have threatened them,” the president said.

But López Obrador said the problem was a local, isolated issue that had been magnified and exploited by his political foes. “They may make a campaign out of Frontera Comalapa, but it won’t go far,” he said. “They are going to magnify everything they can.”

The Diocese of San Cristobal de las Casas said in a statement Saturday that there had been forced recruitment, along with extorsion, road blockades, kidnappings and killings.

“The drug cartels have taken over our territory, and we are under a state of siege, suffering widespread psychosis from narco blockades” that have prevented food and medical care from reaching the isolated towns.

López Obrador acknowledged that the gangs “cut off the electricity in some towns and have not allowed workers from the (state-owned) Federal Electricity Commission in to restore service.”

The Diocese of Tapachula issued a statement saying local residents were suffering as a result of the conflict.

“In these times of suffering and shortages, we must use our intelligence, calmly, to survive day to day with what we have at hand,” according to the statement.

In neighboring Guatemala, the army deployed troops along its side of the border.

The Chiapas state government, which had not spoken much about the conflict, issued a statement Monday saying 800 soldiers, police and National Guard members were being dispatched to Frontera Comalapa after reports of “several” gang roadblocks in the area.

The area has long been the scene of a various shootouts, kidnappings and reports of widespread extortion by drug gangs in recent months.

In August, prosecutors said a half dozen men were killed in an apparent ambush in a township near Frontera Comalapa along a known migrant smuggling route.

lunes, 25 de septiembre de 2023

AIPAC TARGETS BLACK DEMOCRATS — WHILE THE CONGRESSIONAL BLACK CAUCUS STAYS SILENT

AIPAC has given at least $3.6 million to the CBC’s old guard since last year, while members of the Squad draw the Israel lobby’s ire.

Akela Lacy

September 21 2023

https://theintercept.com/2023/09/21/aipac-cbc-progressive-black-democrats/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=The%20Intercept%20Newsletter

THE AMERICAN ISRAEL Public Affairs Committee, the country’s most influential pro-Israel lobbying group, is recruiting candidates to challenge progressive members of the Congressional Black Caucus in primaries next year.

The CBC has been silent on the AIPAC bid to challenge at least three of its members who are part of the so-called Squad, a loose group of progressive representatives. According to media reports and The Intercept’s investigation, the only incumbents AIPAC has targeted so far in this election cycle are CBC members.

The CBC’s silence on the electoral challenges reflects the divide among Democrats on Israel — with progressives increasingly willing to buck Capitol Hill orthodoxies and speak up for Palestinian rights — and fundraising dynamics among caucus members. AIPAC has endorsed more than half of CBC members. The AIPAC-backed members of the caucus, some 31 lawmakers, have received a previously unreported total of at least $3.6 million from AIPAC since February 2022, according to Federal Election Commission records.

The silence has given rise to calls for the CBC to speak up for members under attack — especially given AIPAC’s propensity for directing Republican money to challenge incumbent progressive Democrats in primaries.

“AIPAC and its Republican donors are intentionally targeting progressive members of the Congressional Black Caucus with right-wing primary challenges,” said Alexandra Rojas, the executive director of Justice Democrats, which backed all five CBC members from the Squad. “The CBC — and every caucus in Congress — has the opportunity now to demonstrate their power and stand up for all incumbents against AIPAC’s role in funneling GOP dollars into Democratic primaries.”

AIPAC is seeking to challenge CBC members Reps. Ilhan Omar, D-Minn., and Jamaal Bowman, D-N.Y., because of their support for putting restrictions on U.S. aid to Israel, Jewish Insider reported last month.

According to three sources with knowledge of the recruiting process, who asked for anonymity to protect professional relationships, AIPAC asked Pittsburgh-area Democrat Lindsay Powell to challenge Rep. Summer Lee, D-Penn.; Powell declined. Allegheny County Controller Corey O’Connor also declined an AIPAC invitation to challenge Lee, according to two of the sources. (Powell declined to comment, and O’Connor did not respond to a request for comment.)

Bhavini Patel, a council member in the city of Edgewood, Pennsylvania, is reportedly planning to run against Lee. Jewish Insider reported that it was unable to confirm if AIPAC had met with Patel. (Patel did not respond to a request for comment.)

While AIPAC declined to respond to specific questions about its involvement in the challenges against CBC members, the pro-Israel lobby defended its record supporting Black candidates for Congress.

“AIPAC proudly endorsed more than half the Black Caucus last cycle and United Democracy Project” — an AIPAC-backed super PAC — “helped ensure pro-Israel African American Democrats in Ohio, North Carolina, and Maryland won their elections,” an AIPAC spokesperson said in a statement to The Intercept. “While we have not made any decisions on specific races this cycle, we are constantly evaluating every seat held by a detractor of the U.S.-Israel relationship, and we base our assessments exclusively on their anti-Israel votes and statements.”

The CBC did not respond to a request for comment.

Old Guard Versus the Squad

Five Black progressive officials have joined the CBC’s ranks since 2019. Their additions strained already shifting dynamics in the caucus, which has long been governed by traditional structures of seniority and patronage.

The caucus has sometimes stood against the new crop of rising Black progressives. The CBC bet against Rep. Ayanna Pressley, D-Mass., in 2018 and backed her white incumbent opponent, former Rep. Mike Capuano; Pressley won and joined the CBC. Bowman angered the old guard of the caucus when he endorsed progressive candidate Cori Bush in her 2020 primary in Missouri against Rep. William Lacy Clay, a centrist who had been a CBC member for two decades. Bush also won and joined the CBC.

Divisions on Israel in the CBC, however, go beyond election alliances to policy stances and votes. Since taking office, progressive CBC members — including Omar, Bowman, Lee, Bush, and Pressley — have criticized human rights abuses against Palestinians or voted against military aid to Israel. They were among the 10 House Democrats who voted against a July resolution to absolve Israel of being an apartheid state. The critical stance on U.S. support for Israel drew AIPAC’s ire, with the group ramping up its efforts to challenge the CBC incumbents.

AIPAC’s shifting campaign strategy presents contradictions for the CBC. The caucus’s leaders have close relationships with AIPAC, but the group has also historically put an emphasis on the importance of protecting incumbents.

Since 2022, the CBC’s top AIPAC recipients include Rep. Glenn Ivey, D-Md., who has taken $756,000 from the group; House Democratic Caucus Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., who has taken $485,300; Rep. Valerie Foushee, D-N.C., who has taken $456,800; Rep. Ritchie Torres, D-N.Y., who has taken $459,900; and Rep. Shontel Brown, D-Ohio, who has taken $349,600.

Jeffries, who has led congressional efforts to protect incumbents against primary challengers, is a close ally of AIPAC, as are CBC leader Rep. Steven Horsford, D-Nev., and CBC PAC leader Rep. Gregory Meeks. CBC members have regularly led and attended AIPAC’s annual trips to Israel, conferences, and other events. (Horsford, Meeks, and CBC PAC did not provide comment for this story.)

The alliance has put CBC members at odds. Omar and Bush joined other progressives in protesting an official congressional address by Israel President Isaac Herzog in July amid efforts to radically politicize the country’s judiciary system. Jeffries said he welcomed Herzog “with open arms.” The next month, he led AIPAC’s annual congressional delegation to Israel.

More centrist CBC members and their political allies have been involved in combatting progressive gains in the Democratic Party. In June 2021, Jeffries, along with Reps. Josh Gottheimer, D-N.J., and Terri Sewell, D-Ala., another recipient of AIPAC cash, launched Team Blue PAC to protect Democratic members facing primary challenges from their left. And last June, Democratic operatives closely aligned with CBC leaders launched a new dark-money group to fend off primary challengers.

In their individual capacities, however, some of the centrist CBC members are supporting their progressive colleagues. After news broke that AIPAC was recruiting Omar’s challenger, Jeffries endorsed her last month.

For some observers, Jeffries’s ascendency in Democratic leadership, and many CBC members’ support of it, complicates the political calculus. To invite a fight with an influential group like AIPAC could prove folly for Jeffries, souring relationships in the wider Democratic caucus where the group still holds sway. “Some of the older members have trouble letting go,” said one senior Democratic strategist who requested anonymity in order to speak freely. “And I think more than anything, they want a Black speaker of the House, not protecting progressive members.”

Jeffries’s spokesperson Christie Stephenson declined to say whether Jeffries planned to endorse Lee and Bowman but said Jeffries would keep backing Democratic incumbents across the political spectrum.

“Leader Hakeem Jeffries intends to continue his practice of supporting the reelection of every single House Democratic incumbent,” she said, “from the most progressive to the most centrist, and all points in between.”

AIPAC’s Republican Money

The rift between AIPAC and progressive CBC members reflects a broader disconnect between more senior and moderate CBC members and the caucus’s small but growing progressive wing. Those frictions have bled into other recent primary elections. CBC members reportedly pushed former Rep. Mondaire Jones to run against Bowman last year. Bowman is one of the five progressive Squad members who are also part of the CBC.

“The CBC should be sounding the alarm and should be concerned,” said Democratic strategist Camille Rivera, a partner at New Deal Strategies. “We need to be very careful about letting power and influence change the overall goal of the caucus, which is to protect Black incumbents and expand representation, especially those that have been doing the work and representing their constituents. We shouldn’t let any entity try to divide and conquer.”

AIPAC’s attacks on Black progressives are not new. The group funneled money from GOP donors to back the more centrist Brown’s successful House campaigns against Ohio progressive Nina Turner. And the group spent $4 million to try to thwart Lee’s insurgent 2022 campaign.

Even powerful progressives have fallen amid the Israel lobby’s attacks. Endorsements from former Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton and Rep. Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., weren’t enough to help former Rep. Donna Edwards, D- Md., overcome the $6 million AIPAC spent against her in her bid to reclaim her House seat. Pelosi, a pro-Israel stalwart and at the time the speaker of the House, rebuked AIPAC for its attacks against Edwards. Her opponent, Ivey, the top CBC recipient of AIPAC cash, won the primary by 16 points and went on to win the general election by a landslide.

AIPAC’s strategy fits into a larger trend of Republicans and Democrats teaming up to defeat progressive candidates critical of U.S. support to Israel. Republican donors poured last-minute cash into former New York Rep. Eliot Engel’s reelection campaign in the face of Bowman’s insurgent 2018 challenge. Pennsylvania billionaire Jeffrey Yass, a major GOP donor and funder of the Israeli think tank leading the rightward lurch in the country’s judiciary, also funded a PAC run by Democrats and dedicated to challenging progressives in Democratic primaries.

Lee told The Intercept that AIPAC used Republican money to fund ads meant to discourage Black voters from coming out on Election Day.

“AIPAC funneled money from Republican billionaires to spend $5 million attacking me with baseless lies and racist tactics,” Lee said. She said political ads accused her of having ties to far-right figures like former President Donald Trump “in order to keep Black voters from showing up to vote.”

Lee drew a contrast to AIPAC’s support for scores of “insurrectionist” Republicans who supported election denial and “shared the same goals as a mob of armed white supremacists and antisemites.”

“Now they’re targeting Black incumbent champions for poor, working-class, Black folks in districts where they’ve never been represented,” she said. “These attacks add fuel to the fire of fascism tearing away the history, civil rights, and lives of Black Americans, who are the base of the Democratic party.”