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viernes, 6 de noviembre de 2026

Till Death Do Us Part: The Unholy Matrimony Between the US and Israel

by M. Reza Behnam | Nov 6, 2026 

https://original.antiwar.com/reza_behnam/2026/11/05/till-death-do-us-part-the-unholy-matrimony-between-the-us-and-israel/

The standard narrative of American foreign policy has long rested on the pillar of moral exceptionalism: the assertion that the United States acts as a global guardian of human rights, international law and democratic governance.

However, Washington’s support for the ongoing holocaust in the occupied Gaza Strip, West Bank and unlawful war on Iran have exposed glaring contradictions at the heart of this narrative.  They reveal the true character of a political system defined not by its lofty noble declarations, but by its iniquitous decisions and actions.

These inequalities accentuate the true nature of U.S. geopolitics; essentially that human rights ideals are of little account to predatory imperial powers.

For over a century, the subjugation of Palestine and West Asia has been orchestrated through a legacy of colonial bigotry and pro-Zionist geopolitical engineering.  The region has been treated not as home to sovereign peoples but as an imperial chessboard ripe for exploitation.

The wars throughout the region, particularly on Palestine and Iran, are the culmination of imperial agendas set in motion a century ago.  The current geopolitical course began with the stroke of a pen set to the Balfour Declaration in 1917, in which a distant European empire casually bartered away a homeland that was not theirs to give.  This colonizing scheme reached its peak in the 1996 “A Clean Break: A New Strategy for Securing the Realm” document – a stratagem advanced by American neoconservatives and Zionist hardliners to reshape West Asia in Israel’s image.

Together these imperial blueprints established frameworks for domination that have led the region and global community to the precipice of disaster.

Underpinning these policies is a deeply-rooted colonial chauvinism that views the indigenous people of the region as obstacles to be displaced, managed or crushed, rather than human beings with inalienable rights to freedom, self-determination and dignity.

When examined across a century, the trajectory from Balfour to “Clean Break”  demonstrates a consistent structural logic. Whether foreign powers use imperial decrees, global mandates, diplomatic accords or military force, the goal is always the same: to secure and maintain control, fundamentally disregarding the rights of the native populations to govern themselves.

The bilateral partnership with Israel, originally formed to secure its existence, has now become a strategic liability.  The Israel that once proved useful to Washington as its regional enforcer, now seems to be in the catbird seat.

The eventual subordination of American foreign policy to Israeli strategic ambitions is not a historic accident, but the predictable outcome of a powerful deeply-entrenched military-industrial-security nexus that long ago equated regional dominance with U.S. national interests.

What began as a Cold War strategy to project American power across West Asia without a large-scale troop presence, has evolved into an institutionalized, self-perpetuating deadly alliance, in which the balance of control has become blurred.

Decades of deeply-entrenched military, intelligence and industrial ties with Tel Aviv have created an institutional inertia so powerful that Washington now reflexively accepts global criticism, regional anger and multi-trillion-dollar detours into foreign interventions as a matter of course – as a worthy price to pay for their “special relationship.”

Instead of exerting its strategic agency over a client state, the United States has become captive to Israeli dogmatism, which asserts that anything less than unconditional support signals U.S. weakness and vulnerability.  Consequently, this has fallen on American taxpayers to subsidize and service members to fight  military campaigns that compromise the nation’s interests and long-term stability.

Adding to this geopolitical trap is a domestic political echo chamber engineered to penalize flexibility and alternative strategies, while rewarding absolute conformity and compliance with Israeli objectives.

The alliance with Israel is so thoroughly embedded in the American body politic that it functions as a “third rail” of U.S. foreign policy and public discourse.  It remains above criticism through a combination of highly organized influential lobbying groups, massive political campaign financing schemes, a powerful evangelical voting bloc, and weaponization of the anti-Semitic label.

When paired with a deeply-ingrained pro-Israel media and cultural narrative that frames regional escalation as inevitable, rather than preventable, Washington’s political class most often chooses the safety of domestic capitulation over the discipline of sovereign statecraft, guaranteeing political submission to Israeli goading.

The result is a chronically unsettled America perpetually drawn into Israel’s expansionist wars.  This involvement is driven not by clear strategic necessity, but by a systemic inability in Washington to break free from domestic pressures and external mandates.

From the colonial promises of the Balfour Declaration to the “Clean Break” document, Israel has consistently prioritized expansionism over international law, formal agreements and even the strategic interests of its closest ally and main benefactor, the United States.

A core folly in Washington’s Israel/West Asian policy has been in treating a strategic burden as an indispensable ally.

Prioritizing the regional ambitions of a hegemonic foreign “ally” over core U.S. interests have entangled America in Israel’s reckless wars and conflicts.  Decades of blank-check diplomacy have inflamed anti-American sentiment, compromised its global credibility, strained vital alliances, and drained finite military and economic resources that would be better directed toward urgent domestic needs.

Paradoxically, the imperial strategies meant to safeguard Israel at the expense of West Asia are now taking a toll on America as well.  The United States will not, and cannot, recover its strategic autonomy and moral leadership unless it makes a clean break from its damaging relationship with Israel.

jueves, 5 de noviembre de 2026

'A severe blow': Israeli media outlets sound alarm over Democratic sweep

Netanyahu-aligned Channel 14 calls the vote a ‘major blow to Trump and Israel’ as critics of military aid to Tel Aviv head to Washington in growing numbers 

News Desk

NOV 4, 2026

https://thecradle.co/articles/a-severe-blow-israeli-media-outlets-sound-alarm-over-democratic-sweep

Israel’s leading outlets reacted with alarm on 4 November after the Democratic Party captured both the US House of Representatives and the Senate in the midterm elections, warning that lawmakers opposed to US military aid to Israel are heading to Congress in growing numbers. 

At least 11 Democrats who have backed Palestinian rights and opposed US military support for Israel won seats across both chambers, swelling the ranks of Tel Aviv’s critics in the US legislature. 

Channel 14, a network aligned with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, called the outcome a “major blow to Trump and Israel,” expecting Democrats in charge of the foreign affairs, defense, and appropriations committees to put US weapons sales and deliveries to Israel under a far harsher spotlight. 

Yedioth Ahronoth branded the vote a “historic blue tsunami” and a humiliating defeat for US President Donald Trump, noting that Democrats broke through in districts once considered safely Republican, and are now positioned to obstruct legislation favorable to Israel. 

The Jerusalem Post blamed the sweeping Republican loss chiefly on the US-Israeli war on Iran, launched on 28 February, warning that the rise of Israel’s critics in Washington “represents a shift that Israel cannot afford to ignore.”

Maariv singled out the state of Maine, where Democrat Troy Jackson ousted Senator Susan Collins, an Israel ally in office since 1997, on a platform of ending US military aid to Tel Aviv, calling the wider Democratic victory a sign of the party’s shifting balance on Israel.

Haaretz pointed to the Michigan Senate win of progressive Democrat Abdul el-Sayed, the chamber’s first Muslim member, over AIPAC-backed Republican Mike Rogers as proof that fierce opposition to Israel no longer hinders candidates but in fact strengthens their standing with the US public.

AIPAC failed to stop El-Sayed despite pouring more than $30 million into Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary, the most it has ever spent on a single race, and later directing up to $9 million to a super PAC backing Rogers, part of a midterm spending push that topped $100 million across its PAC and super PAC, according to Sludge.

miércoles, 4 de noviembre de 2026

Major losses could spur Trump to escalate war before year's end

If you think the president is going to behave like a normal lame duck, think again

Trita Parsi

Nov 04, 2026

https://responsiblestatecraft.org/trump-war-midterms-iran/?mc_cid=c770498b78&mc_eid=944feb3e1c

As much as the Iran war is the key reason Trump and the GOP were crushed tonight, it is important to recognize that the pressure for war is now likely to increase.

This does not mean that Trump will restart the war. But the balance of pressure for and against war will likely favor escalation.

Trump was under a degree of pressure to strike a deal before the midterms, hoping to soften the blow in the polls. But now that the midterms are over, that pressure will dissipate somewhat. Gas prices are still high, but the political cost has already been paid. There won’t be another point on the political calendar for some time when that cost can be exacted again.

But two other factors will intensify.

First, pro-war elements in Israel and in Washington will see the next two months as the last period in which Trump has wide maneuverability to restart the war. By January, the Democrats will control both chambers, will control the purse, and can begin impeaching Trump’s secretaries, including Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth. While Trump’s freedom of maneuver will not be completely constrained, it will be significantly reduced.

In fact, it could happen sooner, given that current government funding expires on December 11. Democrats can push to ensure that any subsequent funding or authorization legislation prohibits war funding. As Senator Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) has pointed out, the Vietnam War only ended after Congress refused to continue funding it.

This will compel war supporters to dramatically increase their pressure on Trump to restart the war in the coming weeks, before Congress imposes itself on Trump.

Secondly, while Trump’s decision to start the war in February was driven by hubris and criminally erroneous Israeli advice, another emotion may dominate his thinking going forward: vengeance.

There has been a vindictive element to his calculations in the past weeks because of his anger over how Iran — in Trump’s mind — has ruined his presidency. That anger must be going through the roof tonight.

If talks in Doha do not produce a breakthrough in the next few days, then the risk of escalation in the coming weeks will increase due to the urgency borne out of a closing window for escalation, Trump’s own desire for vengeance, and reduced political pressure to push down gas prices by securing a deal.

martes, 3 de noviembre de 2026

Tucker Carlson Says Trump Is Considering a Nuclear Strike on Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain

Trump has publicly ruled out using nuclear weapons against Iran but continues to threaten bombing Pickaxe Mountain

by Dave DeCamp | November 2, 2026

https://news.antiwar.com/2026/11/02/tucker-carlson-says-trump-is-considering-a-nuclear-strike-on-irans-pickaxe-mountain/

Tucker Carlson claimed in a post on X on Sunday night that the Trump administration is considering launching a nuclear strike targeting Pickaxe Mountain in central Iran and that the president is expected to make a decision by November 7.

“Under pressure from Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the Trump administration may be within days of launching a nuclear strike on Iran,” Carlson wrote.

Carlson said that Israeli intelligence has claimed that the “Iranian government has restarted its nuclear enrichment program” underneath Pickaxe Mountain, allegations that Tehran has denied.

“No conventional weapon in the American arsenal can penetrate 300 feet of solid granite to destroy the tunnels where enrichment is supposedly taking place,” Carlson said. 

For his part, Trump has publicly ruled out using a nuclear bomb against Iran, but he has been threatening to strike Pickaxe Mountain. “We’ve knocked out their nuclear. We still have to take care of, I would say one or two sites, but we can do that in 10 minutes,” Trump told reporters over the weekend. “You probably could look at Pickaxe Mountain, and you have to take care of that. We can do that all very quickly.”

In his post, Carlson said that Netanyahu was pushing for the US nuclear strike due to his precarious political position following Israel’s October 27 Knesset election. Netanyahu’s coalition led his opposition but failed to gain the majority needed to form a government.

“To that end, [Netanyahu has] applied maximum pressure to his closest allies in the administration, including Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and CENTCOM commander Brad Cooper. Both oppose a negotiated settlement to the war they’ve so grievously mismanaged; both are pushing to restart major combat operations,” Carlson wrote.

The former Fox News host, who spoke with President Trump before he launched the war on February 28, went on to discuss the potential consequences of the US using a nuclear bomb, which would mark a first since World War II.

“An American nuclear attack on Iran would set a new precedent. The Russians have already told at least two other governments that an American nuclear strike on Iran would free them to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine. Pakistan and India would be tempted to do the same against each other, as would North Korea against Seoul. After the first nuclear strike, World War Three is inevitable. That war would be short and final,” Carlson said.

He pointed out that the Pentagon has been rewriting the US nuclear strategy to “make first use of so-called ‘battlefield nukes’ easier and therefore more likely.” The Pentagon’s policy chief, Elbridge Colby, has for more than a decade called for the US to develop additional capabilities to fight a “limited nuclear war.”

Carlson cited “close observers” who said Trump would likely decide by the weekend, or November 7, whether or not to carry out a nuclear strike. He also said that the president is “hesitating” for the time being and is “listening to his vice president, JD Vance, and to his envoy and friend Steve Witkoff, both of whom argue a deal with Iran can be made.”

Trump was also supposedly favoring diplomacy before joining Israel’s 12-Day War against Iran in June 2025 and before launching the current war alongside Israel on February 28.

lunes, 2 de noviembre de 2026

Beyond Netanyahu: What Israel’s Election Means for Palestinians

by Ramzy Baroud | Nov 2, 2026

https://original.antiwar.com/ramzy-baroud/2026/11/01/beyond-netanyahu-what-israels-election-means-for-palestinians/

In the past, many Palestinians and Arabs followed Israeli elections closely.

They did so not because they entertained illusions that a Zionist leader would deliver peace and justice, dismantle the occupation or remove illegal settlements. Rather, they feared that some Israeli leaders were worse than others. They hoped to avert the worst-case scenario.

Over time, however, that distinction gave way to the belief that all Israeli leaders were essentially the same. This is not pessimism. It is experience.

Consider, for example, the expansion of illegal Jewish settlements during the Oslo peace process under Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin.

Between 1992 and 1995, the number of Israeli settlers in the West Bank, excluding East Jerusalem, increased from 111,673 to 140,235 – a rise of more than 25 percent, according to the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics, drawing on Israeli statistical records.

The same pattern continued under the Labor government of Ehud Barak.

Within his first six months, Barak’s government issued tenders for 3,196 settlement housing units, exceeding the annual average under his right-wing predecessor, Benjamin Netanyahu.

When Naftali Bennett formed a coalition government in June 2021 that included the Arab party Ra’am, settlement expansion continued unabated.

According to Peace Now, the Bennett–Lapid government advanced plans for 7,292 settlement housing units during its first year, a 26-percent increase over the annual average recorded under previous Netanyahu governments.

The settlements are themselves a driving force behind the occupation. They require land, and therefore land confiscation; protection, and therefore an expanded military presence; water, roads and infrastructure, and therefore the appropriation of Palestinian resources. Together, these elements deepen dispossession and generate further Israeli violence.

According to the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics, the West Bank contained 645 Israeli settlement sites, outposts and other occupation installations by the end of 2025, including 350 settlement outposts.

The Palestinian Colonization and Wall Resistance Commission reported that Israeli authorities targeted approximately 29,335 dunums of Palestinian land through declarations of so-called “state land” between October 2023 and August 2026—one of the largest waves of such land appropriation since Oslo.

By September 2026, the Commission had also documented the advancement or consideration of plans for more than 18,000 additional settlement housing units across the West Bank and occupied East Jerusalem.

Alongside this expansion is the violence unfolding across the West Bank.

By the end of 2023, the West Bank had experienced its deadliest year for Palestinians since the UN began systematically recording casualties in 2005.

The Colonization and Wall Resistance Commission documented 23,827 attacks by Israeli forces and settlers against Palestinians and their property during 2025 alone. In the first seven months of 2026, settler attacks increased by 63 percent compared with the corresponding period of the previous year.

Typically, this violence, carried out by the Israeli occupation army and armed illegal settlers, is contextualized within the ongoing genocide in Gaza. But violence in the West Bank also serves another purpose beyond collective punishment: the confiscation of Palestinian orchards, the annexation of land, the expansion of settlements and the crushing of Palestinian resistance, including nonviolent opposition to this colonial enterprise.

Any Israeli candidate in the October 27 elections who supports settlement expansion does so with full knowledge of its consequences: further dispossession, military occupation, annexation and violence.

The difference between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, and politicians presented as less extreme, is often one of language, strategy and timing.

Former Israeli military chief and Yashar party leader Gadi Eisenkot, for example, openly supports the expansion of Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank, despite his reputation as a more ‘moderate’ alternative to Netanyahu.

What, then, about Gaza?

Who among Israel’s leading political figures is promising to end the genocide, lift the siege, ensure unrestricted humanitarian aid, restrain the army or investigate violations of international law? None.

Israeli media have spent the past three years reporting on major disagreements between the government, military establishment, intelligence agencies and political opposition over what should happen in Gaza.

Yet, Eisenkot has pledged to end Hamas’ rule in Gaza within 18 months of taking office, whether through the Trump framework or through continued war.

For his part, opposition leader and former Prime Minister Yair Lapid has proposed placing Gaza under Egyptian administration for 15 years, effectively shifting responsibility for Israel’s actions onto Arab states.

Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, meanwhile, supports continued Israeli military control until Palestinian groups are disarmed.

The disagreement, therefore, is often over how Israel should achieve its objectives, rather than whether those objectives should change.

Other major disagreements primarily concern Israeli society: the conscription of ultra-Orthodox Jews, judicial reform, accountability for the failures of October 7.

But these disputes should not be confused with the questions that matter most to Palestinians.

If Netanyahu succeeds in forming another right-wing coalition, the policies of occupation, settlement expansion and military confrontation will continue, potentially with renewed momentum.

If Israel produces a broader coalition, its members may reach compromises over judicial reform, conscription and other domestic disputes. The occupation, however, is unlikely to become the central point of disagreement.

More troubling still, even a government leaning toward the center-left might succeed in presenting Israel to the international community as a country ready to move beyond the image it acquired during three years of genocide, without fundamentally changing its conduct on the ground.

The international community must therefore remain vigilant. It cannot allow a future Israeli government to present itself as a peacemaker, or sell the illusion of a newly reformed Israel, while continuing to invest in settlements, occupation, war and genocide.

domingo, 1 de noviembre de 2026

Lula's victory alone cannot loosen the US and Israeli grip on Latin America

Jodor Jalit

1 November 2026

Brazil's president has defied Trump and condemned the genocide in Gaza, but a divided electorate and powerful right-wing neighbours limit hopes of a regional shift

https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/lulas-victory-alone-cannot-loosen-us-and-israeli-grip-latin-america

“Lula won! Lula won!" a Brazilian student shouted at a language school in Cairo. An Argentine activist sent a similar message. A pan-Arab news channel filled the screen with images of packed streets in Sao Paulo.

The excitement over Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's fourth term is real, and it is shared by his supporters at home and by progressives across neighbouring countries. It is also exaggerated, especially when paired with hopes of a regional swing to the left and a distancing from the US and Israel.

Argentina, the homeland of exaggeration, offers a quick example.

After Alberto Fernandez defeated incumbent Mauricio Macri in 2019, a jubilant Peronist movement began imagining a regional realignment.

A Trotskyist activist from the southern suburbs of Buenos Aires captured the mood: "We already have AMLO [Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador] in Mexico, and now we must go for Brazil. Can you imagine Lula being re-elected? Latin America would be leftist once again!"

The optimism was understandable. Lula walked out of prison two weeks after the Argentine vote, and a candidate endorsed by US President Donald Trump had lost for the first time.

Fernandez took office in December 2019 and did not live up to the hype. A month later, he made his first foreign trip as president to Israel, a gesture that one seasoned Argentine-Israeli foreign policy analyst read as a bid for Washington's goodwill ahead of talks over a $44bn debt to the International Monetary Fund.

Fernandez had also inherited a hostile neighbourhood. Jair Bolsonaro had taken office in Brasilia in January 2019, and Jeanine Anez took power in La Paz that November, consolidating the region's conservative Blue Tide.

Most importantly, Trump had entered the White House in January 2017 with Republican majorities in both houses of Congress. That September, Benjamin Netanyahu became the first sitting Israeli prime minister to visit Latin America, touring Argentina, Colombia and Mexico, and returned for Bolsonaro's inauguration.

Fernandez's victory, in short, did not deliver the realignment the optimists had imagined. In the little time he had before the Covid-19 pandemic, he used Israel to draw closer to the US.

This is not to say that Lula will follow in his footsteps. It is to point out the limits that domestic, regional and global politics impose, and to moderate expectations accordingly.

A divided electorate

Lula's latest victory is no small feat. He is the first democratically elected president of Brazil to win a third and now a fourth term, and the first since 1985 to win a runoff after finishing second in the first round.

Laudable as they are, these achievements reveal how hard his party has found it to renew its leadership, and not for want of trying.

The Workers' Party (PT) made its first attempt at renewal in 2010, electing Dilma Rousseff to succeed Lula as president. She was re-elected in 2014, impeached in 2016 and failed to win a Senate seat in 2018. Her return looks all the more distant now that she presides over the New Development Bank, established by Brics.

The party then passed the baton to Fernando Haddad, who became its presidential candidate in 2018 after the electoral court barred the imprisoned Lula from running. Haddad lost to Bolsonaro.

Lula returned as the PT's candidate to defeat Bolsonaro in 2022 and, four years later, Bolsonaro's son, Senator Flavio Bolsonaro. In both cases the margins were razor thin: less than two percentage points the first time, under four the second.

Three days before the final vote, Datafolha had the two candidates tied at 50 percent of valid votes. More telling still were the rejection rates: 46 percent for Flavio Bolsonaro and 45 percent for Lula. These figures reveal the frustration and polarisation behind Lula's victory.

The polarisation is written on the map, too, along the historical divide between the wealthy south and the poor north. Flavio Bolsonaro swept the three southern states, Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and the centre-west, while Lula took all nine states of the northeast. Compared with 2022, only two states changed hands.

Lula's victory leaves the PT's succession problem unresolved and Brazil's electorate deeply divided, while offering little evidence of the wider leftward shift his supporters hope to see across Latin America. Trump's second term is a reminder of what entrenched leaders and polarised electorates can do to a democracy.

The reactionary international

Lula's victory is the exception in Latin America: it follows a wave of right-wing election wins across the continent since Trump returned to the White House in January 2025. The right has won elections in Chile, Bolivia, Colombia, Honduras, Peru and Ecuador.

The Argentine scholar Juan Gabriel Tokatlian has described the rise of a "reactionary international": an Anglo-Saxon invention with peripheral franchises, driven by anger at history, politics and morality, and always in search of a scapegoat.

Trump, former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Reform UK leader Nigel Farage have found their matches in Jair Bolsonaro, Argentine President Javier Milei and Colombian President Abelardo de la Espriella.

This network of populist, socially conservative and economically liberal leaders has revitalised relations between Latin America and the US.

Trump endorsed presidential candidates Nasry Asfura in Honduras and de la Espriella in Colombia, as well as Flavio Bolsonaro, and embraced presidents Jose Antonio Kast of Chile, Nayib Bukele of El Salvador and Daniel Noboa of Ecuador.

Before Argentina's midterm elections in October 2025, the Trump administration arranged a $20bn lifeline to prop up the peso and Milei's coalition. In September 2026, it diverted $52m in military aid from Iraq, Tunisia and two Nato members to right-wing governments in Colombia, Ecuador, Panama and Peru.

Indeed, the Trump administration has invested heavily in the reactionary international, above all in Latin America. Such meddling, electoral and financial, is itself a trait of the network: a cross-border solidarity that tramples on state sovereignty and international law.

Most worrying is the "Donroe Doctrine", Trump's message that all means necessary will be used to support and propagate the network across Latin America.

In its name, US forces have been bombing boats in the Caribbean since September 2025, killing more than 100 people in extrajudicial strikes. In January, they kidnapped Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro from Caracas, killing 100 soldiers in the raid. Since February, they have enforced a fuel blockade on Cuba that UN experts have called "energy starvation".

Washington wants to dominate the hemisphere and lead its wing of the reactionary international by political, economic and military means. Governments in the region now face rising, and sometimes deadly, costs for refusing to yield to US demands.

Lula has already defied Trump, with results and bruises to show for it. When Trump hit Brazil with 50-percent tariffs in 2025 to punish it for prosecuting Jair Bolsonaro, Lula refused to bend. The US Supreme Court struck down those emergency tariffs in February, only for Washington to replace them with a 25-percent duty in July.

Lula took the case to the World Trade Organization, and within a month Trump called Lula and bilateral talks resumed.

Impressive, yes. Cost-free, no. Lula has been unable to return US tariffs to their previous rates and has been forced to find new markets.

Israel's foothold

If Lula has struggled to hold his ground against Washington, progressive forces elsewhere in the region have fared worse, unable to push back against the Blue Tide and the reactionary international. That failure keeps the door open for Israel's continued presence in Latin America.

Relations between Latin America and Israel have had their ups and downs, reflecting the wider mood of international politics. Diplomatic missions opened in the 1950s. In the decade that followed, the abduction of Adolf Eichmann from Argentina in 1960 and the spread of leftist governments created friction.

Even so, when the UN General Assembly declared Zionism a form of racism in 1975, most governments in Latin America and the Caribbean voted against the resolution or abstained. Only Brazil, Mexico, Cuba, Guyana and Grenada supported it.

At the same time, Israel was finding customers. From the 1970s, it armed some of the region's most brutal regimes, among them Argentina's military junta, Augusto Pinochet's Chile, El Salvador's death-squad governments and Anastasio Somoza's Nicaragua.

The progressive Pink Tide of the 2000s then tried to strike a balance. One after another, countries from Brazil to Honduras recognised the state of Palestine in 2010 and 2011, and a growing number of leaders criticised Israel's conduct during its 2009 and 2014 wars on Gaza. In 2014, Brazil, Chile, Ecuador, Peru and El Salvador recalled their ambassadors.

Then came Trump, elected as the Pink Tide receded, followed by Netanyahu's tour. Guatemala moved its embassy to Jerusalem in 2018 and Honduras did the same in 2021. In 2019 and 2020, Argentina, Paraguay, Guatemala, Honduras and Colombia declared Hezbollah a terrorist organisation at Washington's urging. In 2019, Jair Bolsonaro and Chile's then-president, Sebastian Pinera, both visited Israel.

Underpinning all of this, once again, are arms sales and surveillance technology. Argentina has bought Israeli gunboats, Colombia an air defence system and Mexico the NSO Group's Pegasus spyware. Flavio Bolsonaro campaigned on a promise to move Brazil's embassy to Jerusalem, and Netanyahu addressed his campaign launch by video.

Lula's limits

Lula may be prepared to stand up to Israel and the US. He has shown as much by confronting Trump over tariffs, withdrawing Brazil's ambassador from Tel Aviv, calling Israel's war on Gaza, which has killed more than 74,000 Palestinians, a genocide, and joining South Africa's case against Israel at the International Court of Justice.

He is nearly alone in Latin America in being both willing and able to do so. Israel knows that commercial ties keep the door to political influence open, especially while Trump sits in the White House.

The excitement over Lula's win as a victory for democratic and progressive values is justified, even as his party struggles to renew its leadership.

The expectation that it will set off a regional domino effect, reviving the progressive movement and distancing the region from Washington and Tel Aviv, is not. Lula alone cannot roll back US and Israeli influence in the region.

Not all is bad news. Argentina's 2027 presidential election offers Lula a chance to recruit an ally, and when Brasilia and Buenos Aires align, the region moves.

sábado, 31 de octubre de 2026

Tel Aviv fears US will abandon war on Iran before Israeli goals are met: Report

Israeli planners are concerned that a 'quick campaign' by US forces will leave the Iranian government 'intact'

News Desk

OCT 30, 2026

https://thecradle.co/articles/tel-aviv-fears-us-will-abandon-war-on-iran-before-israeli-goals-are-met-report

Israel’s military leadership fears that a swift US bombing campaign on Iran after next week’s midterms could leave the Iranian government “intact” and fail to achieve Israeli war goals, Haaretz reported on 30 October.

Israeli officials are concerned that US President Donald Trump could then strike a deal with Tehran following the strikes, leaving Iran more determined than ever to bolster its defenses, as it has in the last two rounds of attacks. 

The warning exposes a widening rift between Tel Aviv and Washington over what a renewed war on Iran should achieve. 

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made the collapse of the Iranian government and the complete destruction of its nuclear program his war aims, while Washington seeks nuclear concessions and guaranteed passage through the Strait of Hormuz.

Officers in Israeli military intelligence and the air force doubt that several days of US airstrikes could force the Iranian government’s surrender, let alone its collapse.

With the two previous rounds of joint US-Israeli attacks failing to destroy Iran’s nuclear sites or cripple its government, Israeli intelligence assessments warn that new strikes could at most delay it, as Tehran has reinforced its sensitive facilities and remains able to rebuild infrastructure and replenish defenses

Commanders warned the cabinet that joining a campaign without agreed goals could see Washington walk away once its own terms are met, leaving Tel Aviv trapped in an open-ended war with mounting costs.

Israeli defense officials also concede that the Iranian government can withstand the toll of war and the maritime blockade for at least another two years, outlasting the current US administration without abandoning its core objectives.

Israeli military planners admit that rallying public support for another war will be difficult after the recent parliamentary elections, warning that an inconclusive campaign could further erode trust in an army still struggling to recover from the failures of 7 October.

Israeli defense officials have repeatedly been stunned by how quickly Iran rebuilt its ballistic missile production after each US-Israeli bombing campaign since 2024, with Tehran’s arsenal nearly doubling to 2,500 missiles between the June 2025 war and February 2026.

Having withstood more than 20,000 US and Israeli strikes, Iran retains an arsenal of hundreds to thousands of missiles and the ability to seal the Strait of Hormuz and has used the lull in fighting to rebuild its stocks and fortify its defenses.

Tehran has repeatedly warned that any renewed aggression would trigger a forceful response against economic and civilian targets across the region.