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martes, 3 de febrero de 2026

Trump on Iran: Will He, or Won’t He?

by Ron Paul | Feb 2, 2026 

https://original.antiwar.com/paul/2026/02/02/trump-on-iran-will-he-or-wont-he/

For the past month, Americans have been wondering whether President Trump will attack Iran, or whether the massive military build-up in the Middle East is just another bluff. President Trump claims that the decision is his alone to make.

Thus far, President Trump has made little effort to explain to the American people – or to Congress – why launching a war against Iran is in our national interest. Instead, he wanders from one reason to another, hoping something will stick. First it was a “nuclear threat” even though he swore that he had “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program last summer. Then, after the CIA, Mossad, and UK’s MI6 launched a regime-change operation in the form of violent protests in late December, the excuse for war became the Iranian government’s crackdown on the insurrection. But before that could be used as the excuse, the Iranian government was able to quash the uprising. So President Trump returned to the issue of Iran’s nuclear program, while adding in the presence of Iran’s ballistic missile program.

Even by the low threshold for recent US military actions overseas, these arguments are unconvincing. That is why Americans are so skeptical. In a major poll last month, seven in ten Americans said they oppose any US military action against Iran.

When it comes to matters of war, where billions of dollars and countless lives are at stake, “will he, or won’t he” is a terrible question to have to ask. More than 250 years ago we rose up against a system where the king claimed the power to take us to war on his royal decision alone. Our Founding Fathers well understood the folly of concentrating so much power in the hands of one person and placed the power to take the country to war in the hands of the people’s direct representatives, Congress.

This Constitutional obligation has not only been usurped by the Executive Branch. Much blame must be reserved for Congress, which has allowed itself to become a doormat for whoever occupies the White House when it comes to war powers. Members of the president’s own party – regardless of which party it is – are terrified of going against “their” president and members of the opposing party are silent because they don’t want to be accused of not “supporting the troops.”

The media is reporting that Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu will make yet another trip to Washington – his sixth in one year – where he is expected to again pressure President Trump to launch a war on Iran. Last time he was in the US – in December – the regime-change protests in Iran were launched. What does he have up his sleeve this time?

How can it be that a foreign leader has more say on whether we go to war than the US Congress?

Here’s what we do know. Whether Trump launches a war or not, the massive military build-up in the Middle East has already cost us billions of dollars. Those are billions that instead of helping to actually make America great again will only make the military-industrial complex “greater.” All the American people will see is the continuing destruction of the dollar and with it more inflation and a lower standard of living at home. And, of course, we will see a “war supplemental” spending bill on top of the trillion-dollar military budget for the year.

lunes, 2 de febrero de 2026

Trump Again Bypasses Congress to Advance Major Weapons Package for Israel

The State Department approved a $6.5 billion billion weapons package that includes Apache helicopters and military vehicles

by Dave DeCamp | February 1, 2026

https://news.antiwar.com/2026/02/01/trump-again-bypasses-congress-to-advance-major-weapons-package-for-israel/

The Trump administration has approved $6.5 billion in new weapons deals for Israel that include Apache attack helicopters and military vehicles, a step Secretary of State Marco Rubio took without waiting for the normal congressional review process.

According to The New York Times, the approval of the arms deals marks the third time that the Trump administration bypassed Congress to send weapons to Israel.

The arms packages had been under review by the House Foreign Affairs Committee and the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and the State Department is supposed to wait until the top two members of each committee approve the deals before advancing them, but Rubio didn’t, drawing a rebuke from Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-NY), the ranking member of the House committee.

“Just one hour ago, the Trump administration informed me it would disregard congressional oversight and years of standing practice, and immediately notify over $6 billion in arms sales to Israel,” Meeks said, according to Haaretz.

“Shamefully, this is now the second time the Trump administration has blatantly ignored long-standing Congressional prerogatives while also refusing to engage Congress on critical questions about the next steps in Gaza and broader US policy,” Meeks added.

According to the Pentagon’s Defense Security Cooperation Agency, the State Department approved a total of four potential arms sales for Israel, which will likely be funded by US military aid. The deals include:

  • AH-64E Apache Helicopters and related equipment for an estimated cost of $3.8 billion
  • Joint Light Tactical Vehicle and related equipment for an estimated cost of $1.98 billion
  • Namer Armored Personnel Carrier Power Packs Less Transmissions and Integrated Logistics Support, and related equipment for an estimated cost of $740 million
  • AW119Kx Light Utility Helicopters and related equipment for an estimated cost of $150 million

The US provides Israel with $3.8 billion in annual military aid under a ten-year Memorandum of Understanding, but since October 7, 2023, and the start of the IDF’s genocidal campaign in Gaza, the US has given Israel significantly more.

According to Brown University’s Costs of War Project, in the two years following the October 7 attack, the US government spent at least $21.7 billion on military aid to Israel and another $9.65 billion to $12.07 billion on wars in Yemen, Iran, and other military operations in the region in support of Israel.

The Biden administration also took steps to avoid congressional oversight to arm Israel as it was massacring Palestinians in Gaza by advancing more than 100 arms transfers that didn’t reach the dollar amount requiring a review from Congress.

domingo, 1 de febrero de 2026

FBI memo concludes Trump 'compromised' by Israel, new Epstein Files show

The memo alleges that the Chabad Lubavitch movement sought to 'coopt' Trump and that his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, was the 'real brains' behind the presidency

News Desk

JAN 31, 2026

https://thecradle.co/articles/fbi-memo-concludes-trump-compromised-by-israel-new-epstein-files-show

A declassified FBI memo released on 30 January states that US President Donald Trump was “compromised by Israel,” that Jeffrey Epstein was a Mossad agent, and that a Jewish religious movement, Chabad Lubavitch, had coopted Trump’s presidency. 

The FBI memo was written in 2020 as part of an investigation into improper domestic or foreign influence over the US electoral process. 

It is based on information from a confidential human source (CHS) for the bureau and is among more than three million Epstein-related files released by the Justice Department on Friday.

“CHS advised Chabad is doing everything they can to co-opt the Trump presidency,” the memo states. 

Chabad-Lubavitch is a major worldwide Orthodox Jewish organization founded in the late 18th-century Russia. It promotes Jewish education, outreach, and observance by operating thousands of centers worldwide to serve Jewish communities.

The movement’s most prominent Rabbi, Menachem Mendel Schneerson, died in 1992 and is buried at the movement’s headquarters in New York.

Berel Lazar, a Chabad-Lubavitch member, was formerly the Chief Rabbi of Russia and remains a close advisor to Russian President Vladimir Putin. 

“Chabad is basically state-sanctioned Judaism. It is used by Putin to keep tabs on all the Russo-Jewish oligarchs,” the FBI memo adds. 

Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, is identified as a Chabad supporter.

“On the day Trump was elected President, Ivanka Trump and Jared [Kushner] were at the gravesite of Rabbi Schneersom [sic] who was the most powerful Rabbi in the Chabad network,” the memo states.

The memo adds that Kushner has ties with the Russian government and recommends the FBI investigate his family’s charities for money laundering, a common Chabad practice. 

The source states further that, “Trump has been compromised by Israel. And Kushner is the real brains behind his organization and his Presidency.”

According to the Jerusalem Post, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “has long been a friend of the Kushners, and particularly Jared’s dad, Charles Kushner, a major donor to pro-Israel and Jewish causes.”

The FBI memo also states that, according to the source, Jeffrey Epstein worked both for US and foreign intelligence, including Israel’s Mossad. “CHS became convinced Epstein was a co-opted Mossad Agent,” the memo states, while pointing to previous FBI reporting on the issue.

“Epstein was close to the former Prime Minister of Israel, Ehud Barak, and trained as a spy under him,” the memo adds.

The memo also says that the source identified Epstein’s lawyer, Alan Derschowitz, as the person who told Alex Acosta that Epstein “belonged to intelligence.” 

This allegedly led Acosta, Attorney General of the Southern District of Florida at the time, to give Epstein a sweetheart plea deal in 2008 that led to an extremely light sentence for his conviction on charges of solicitation of prostitution with a minor under 18.

Alex Acosta later became Labor Secretary during Trump’s first term in office.

The memo further states that the source believes that Derschowitz, who taught at Harvard Law School, “was co-opted by Mossad and subscribed to their mission.” 

For example, “Dershowitz told CHS that if he were young again, he would be holding a stun gun as an Israeli Intelligence (Mossad) agent.”

The source learned that Dershowitz influenced many students from wealthy families while teaching at Harvard, including Jared Kushner and his brother.

The memo also references a 2004 news article documenting “the deep ties the Kushner family has with Israel and their history of corrupt business practices and alleged violations of election laws."

Jared Kushner currently has no formal government position but nevertheless serves as Trump’s special advisor, including overseeing the president’s plans for developing Gaza and negotiations with Russia regarding the war in Ukraine.

The memo also discusses Trump’s purchase and sale of a Beverly Hills mansion for $800,000 below market value. The home was sold for cash to a Swiss entity associated with the family of Eka Widjaja, an Indonesian billionaire financier. 

The transaction involved "numerous oddities and red flags,” suggesting the purpose of the deal may have been to launder funds, according to the memo.

sábado, 31 de enero de 2026

Iranians seal windows and store food and water as they prepare for attack

While the US builds up its military assets in the Gulf, Iranians quietly brace for a new war

By MEE correspondent

Published date: 31 January 2026 

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/iranians-seal-windows-store-food-water-prepare-for-attack

As night fell on 30 January, a tense sense of dread settled over Iranians at home and abroad, with rumours of an imminent US military strike taking hold across Iran.

"I kept waiting for it to hit. I couldn't sleep until morning. I was waking up and straining to hear any sound of explosions. Let's see what happens tonight," Milad*, a 43-year-old engineer living in the capital Tehran, said about that night.

Shohreh, a 68-year-old woman, goes to a park near her home in east Tehran every morning for group exercise. When she returned home on the morning of 31 January, she said, "Today, all my friends were saying that it would hit tonight."

Shohreh, who opposes a foreign attack on Iran, said people seemed to be losing their minds.

"They think that if the US strikes, everything will be fine," she said. "Because of the killings committed by the Islamic Republic, people are becoming desperate. They no longer know what is in their interest and what is against them."

For the past week, as Washington has once again beaten the drum of war against Iran, the prospect of conflict has become a real and present fear for Iranians.

The movement of a large US military fleet to the Middle East has not only triggered a new multibillion-dollar arms deal with Saudi Arabia and Israel; for Iranians, it has brought confusion, psychological pressure, and fear of a disastrous future.

Iranians are still in shock following the establishment's bloody crackdown on protests that erupted on 28 December in Tehran's bazaar over the economic crisis and quickly spread to cities across the country.

According to government sources, 3,117 people, mostly security forces, were killed in the crackdown. However, human rights groups outside Iran believe the number is much higher, with some putting it at more than 6,500 people, the majority of them civilians. No international fact-finding mission has yet been established to verify the figures.

'Seal the windows'

Arzoo, a 32-year-old government employee opposed to the establishment, described a quiet anxiety among people. Many avoid talking about the deadliest aspects of war, which are all too familiar after last summer's brutal war with Israel, and try to stay calm. But everyone is waiting for the first explosion.

"My neighbour across the street, in the building where I live, has sealed his windows," Arzoo told Middle East Eye.

"He said, 'Seal the windows. When they bomb, there will be no difference between the regime and the opposition.'"

Beneath the fragile calm that Iranian society clings to, perhaps as a way to manage its own mental strain, lurks a persistent question: what to do when war begins?

Social media, which became accessible again after a three-week internet blackout during the crackdown on protests, is now filled with advice on how to survive missile attacks and bombs.

The list of precautions is long: stock enough food and water for 10 days; keep a first-aid kit within reach; place identification and essential documents in a bag for quick evacuation; keep emergency exits clear; move to open spaces at the sound of an explosion; lie on the ground next to a wall. Dozens of similar tips circulate on Persian-language platforms.

The sources of much of this advice are unclear. It is also unknown whether the same bots active during the June Israeli-US strikes – promoting Reza Pahlavi, the son of the deposed Shah – are behind it. Whoever is behind these posts has an evident impact.

Arzoo said she has seen the messages and has stored "10 bottles of drinking water and a few cans of food at home, just in case".

Amin, a 75-year-old retiree with kidney disease, said he bought a three-month supply of medication last week and is keeping it at home.

"Some of this advice may be media manipulation," he said, "but I bought my essentials anyway, out of caution. No one knows what will happen tomorrow."

Amin, who lived through the eight-year Iran-Iraq war and last year's 12-day war, said he is deeply saddened to see his country on the brink of another war.

A leftist activist who has opposed the theocratic rulers since the 1979 revolution, he said: "This regime executed my closest comrades after the revolution and is now killing our children. I have no sympathy for it. But I also hate war. War will destroy everything left for us."

These fears and preparations are not limited to those inside Iran. They are shared by the Iranian diaspora, estimated at around four million people. Many fear another nationwide internet blackout, like those during the 12-day war and last month's crackdown, that would disconnect them from their loved ones.

They also fear for the lives of their families.

Fatemeh, who lives in Finland with her husband and son, worries about her elderly parents in Tehran. During the war with Israel, her parents could not leave the city because they had no access to transportation. 

"I asked my parents to leave Tehran before a new war started," Fatemeh said. "They answered they wouldn't go anywhere. They said they had nowhere to go, which is true. That's why I asked a close friend to visit them and buy basic supplies and medicines during these days."

'A fool like Donald Trump'

Across Iran, cities remain calm, at least for now.

There are no long lines at gas stations. Shops are open. People are going to work as usual. Early in the morning, schoolchildren wait outside their homes for the school bus.

Still, the sense of alarm is widespread.

Soroush, a 27-year-old student, moved with his family to a city in northern Iran during the war to escape Israeli missiles. He said while the panic of that period is no longer visible, the fear of another war runs through everyday conversations.

"The vibe is not like the collective panic of the 12-day war," he said. "It feels like people are mentally prepared. Before the Israeli attack, we had no idea what war would look like. Now we have an image in front of us. We know what we will face."

Soroush feels that the lives of Iranians have turned into a game for the country's leaders and for Western powers. He points to the betting website Polymarket, where many have bet thousands of dollars on a US strike on the night of 31 January. 

"Our lives and our deaths have become entertainment," he said. "A game for others."

Saba, 41, spoke of her fear for the future of her eight-year-old daughter and 12-year-old son. She also described her frustration with the government's repression, the self-interest of opposition figures abroad, and the US warmongering.

"What a miserable people we are," she said. "Our rulers massacre people in the streets. Reza Pahlavi has become the face of our opposition abroad. And our enemy is a fool like Donald Trump."

*Names have been changed for security reasons.

viernes, 30 de enero de 2026

Trump Considering Strikes on Iran to Reignite Protests

Secretary of State Marco Rubio claimed Trump has the ‘preventive defensive option’ to strike Iran

by Kyle Anzalone | January 29, 2026

https://news.antiwar.com/2026/01/29/trump-considering-strikes-on-iran-to-reignite-protests/

President Donald Trump is considering strikes on Iran, hoping the attack will restart anti-government protests.

Reuters reported on Thursday that Trump was hoping strikes on Iran would reignite the protest movement. Earlier this month, the President was considering striking the Iranian government and security forces in response to the crackdown on demonstrators.

Trump initially asserted he would attack Iran for killing protesters, but decided against strikes because they lacked enough military assets in the Middle East to deliver a decisive blow to the Islamic Republic and protect American forces from retaliatory attack.

The President has since ordered a massive military buildup in the Middle East.

In an effort to justify the major US military buildup in the Middle East, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that the US must be prepared for an Iranian strike on American troops in the Middle East. He asserted that President Donald Trump had the right to launch a “preemptive defensive” attack on Iran.

Rubio told Senators that the US needed a large military footprint in the Middle East because “At some point, as a result of something, the Iranian regime decided to strike at our troops in the region,” Rubio said.

Tehran has maintained that it does not seek war and would only attack US bases in the Middle East if Iran were attacked.

Rubio went on to argue that Trump could order an attack on the Islamic Republic even if Iran does not attack the US. “The President always reserves the preemptive defensive option,” the Secretary of State said.

During a session of the Foreign Relations Committee, Rubio laid out a scenario where the US would strike Iran if it did not dismantle its defenses.

“If we tell [Tehran] we don’t want to see drones from Iran, as an example, pointed at the US or threatening our forces or our presence in the region or our allies’ presence in the region, and they refuse to comply with that, the president does reserve the self-defense to eliminate that threat,” the Secretary of State said Wednesday.

He went on to add that the US needed a massive military presence in the Middle East to “preemptively prevent” an Iranian attack.

The President has reportedly been presented with options for causing regime change in Iran, including high-level strikes and a blockade of Iranian oil.

jueves, 29 de enero de 2026

A new military axis rises to counter Israel’s divide-and-rule tactics?

The budding defense alliance between Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkiye threatens to undo Israel and the UAE's plans to balkanize West Asia.

F.M. Shakil

JAN 26, 2026

https://thecradle.co/articles/a-new-military-axis-rises-to-counter-israels-divide-and-rule-tactics

A quiet arms race is underway in West Asia. With implicit support from Washington, Tel Aviv and Abu Dhabi are consolidating a nuclear partnership with India. Meanwhile, reports indicate that Turkiye is poised to establish a trilateral defense pact with Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, focusing on a “shared and reciprocal rapid response” to an attack on any member. 

In response, the UAE swiftly moved on 19 January to formalize a more structured nuclear defense agreement with New Delhi. India cautiously downplayed the development, sensing that the India–UAE defense collaboration would affect the Indian diaspora in Saudi Arabia. India's Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri told the media that the “letter of intent” on defense cooperation did not mean that New Delhi would be involved in a regional conflict.

The India–UAE nuclear pact includes provisions on atomic energy safety and reactor deployment – and appears to have the quiet endorsement of Tel Aviv. Israeli media wasted no time branding it a tripartite Israel–India–UAE alliance. Senior columnist, Shakil Ahmad, who is published regularly in Pakistan’s leading Urdu newspapers, tells The Cradle:

“In fact, Israel wants a rift among West Asian nations so that it could continue with its nefarious designs. India collaborates closely with Israel for this purpose. We should view the recent defense agreement between India and the UAE in this context. The only aim of this understanding is to create ill will among powerful West Asian economies so that there is no resistance against Tel Aviv’s expansionist design.” 

Regarding Turkiye joining the Saudi–Pakistan accord, Ahmad observes that Riyadh had sectarian differences with Tehran as opposed to Ankara – with whom it had only political disagreements – but now both sides understood that their mutual rift would serve the purpose of their enemies alone:

“Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkiye each offer unique contributions to the table. Pakistan can leverage its strategic depth, missile capabilities, and nuclear deterrent, as demonstrated in the four-day war with India.”

The rise of the Riyadh–Ankara–Islamabad axis

A senior official in Pakistan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirms to The Cradle that Ankara has formally proposed a military alliance with Riyadh and Islamabad. 

“It might be a stopgap transient cooperation for limited objectives and scope,” the official says, without elaborating on what these “objectives” are.

Still, both Pakistani and Turkish authorities have signaled that the alliance is moving forward. They say joint operations will soon commence under a framework designed to bring “stability and peace” to West Asia.

According to Ahmad, the new axis unites the three states' core strengths: Pakistan's strategic depth and nuclear deterrence, Saudi Arabia's vast financial resources, and Turkiye's battle-tested conventional military and growing arms industry.

This realignment comes after Hamas's unprecedented Operation Al-Aqsa Flood in October 2023 and Israel’s brutal response; regional equations have shifted dramatically. The UAE and Tel Aviv have entrenched themselves within failed or fragmented states, from Libya and Sudan to Egypt and Somalia. Their strategy: exploit state weakness to extend influence and normalize ties with Israel.

In contrast, Saudi Arabia and Turkiye have aligned around a different doctrine – one that supports strong, central governments capable of resisting Tel Aviv and its Gulf partners. Strengthening defense ties is central to that plan.

“Saudi Arabia and Turkiye had not been seeing eye-to-eye with each other due to several historical, political, and geostrategic issues, but in the last few years, their mutual differences narrowed down, and they began converging on shared security threats emanating from the US’s unrestricted support for Israeli atrocities and its unwarranted bombing of Iran,” Ahmad explains. 

Riyadh's military outreach intensifies

Saudi Arabia is doubling down. Alongside the Pakistan–Turkiye initiative, Riyadh is now pursuing military cooperation with Egypt and Somalia – a direct response to Emirati power plays across Africa and the Red Sea.

Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud is expected to finalize a defense pact with the kingdom. This understanding comes on the heels of Somalia's recent annulment of port and security agreements with the UAE, which it accused of undermining Somali sovereignty. 

The fallout has been swift with the withdrawal of the UAE from the Yemeni theater following Saudi airstrikes on UAE-backed proxies and Riyadh’s overt stance against Abu Dhabi's disruptive military presence. The kingdom is especially incensed by Israel's overtures to Somaliland, which it sees as part of a wider plan to destabilize the Horn of Africa.

Mark Kinra, an Indian geopolitical analyst specializing in West Asia, tells The Cradle that Riyadh's pivot has less to do with its friction with the UAE and more with Washington's waning commitment to the region. 

“Pakistan has traditionally acted as the main security guarantor for Saudi Arabia, and the present US position in West Asia, along with its indifferent approach, has led both nations to reassess and adjust their defense strategies.” 

Kinra adds that the alliance will influence US–Iran tensions; generally, the US will no longer be the exclusive guarantor of security in West Asia. Furthermore, any lethal US intervention in Iran will exacerbate tensions between Iranians and the alliance partners, particularly if they offer any support to the US.

Turkiye eyes strategic depth

For Ankara, this trilateral initiative offers multiple dividends. Turkiye and Pakistan signed a significant defense cooperation pact in March last year, and Turkiye has since accelerated defense localization agreements with Saudi Arabia. A recent deal between Saudi Arabian Military Industries (SAMI) and Turkish drone manufacturer Baykar signals deeper military integration.

“Turkiye will undoubtedly reap the benefits of having access to Saudi Arabia's financial resources, which will also provide a boost to the Turkish military sector. Additionally, the influence of Turkiye will continue to grow in both West Asia and South Asia under this arrangement,” Kinra says.

Turkiye sees the alliance as a response to Tel Aviv's unchecked aggression in Gaza, Syria, and Lebanon – and Washington's unwillingness to restrain it.

The alignment is not aimed at the UAE but rather reflects a shared urgency among Muslim states to consolidate power amid growing threats.

While it remains to be seen whether the Riyadh–Ankara–Islamabad axis can evolve into a long-term counterweight to Tel Aviv and its western allies, its emergence marks a clear pushback against decades of divide-and-rule tactics.

martes, 27 de enero de 2026

Trump Weighing Options for Iran, Including Blockade and High-Level Strikes

The US has engaged in a substantial military buildup in the Middle East over the past week

https://news.antiwar.com/2026/01/26/trump-weighing-options-for-iran-including-blockade-and-high-level-strikes/

by Kyle Anzalone | January 26, 2026 

President Donald Trump is considering a range of options to force regime change in Iran. 

According to Middle East Eye, Arab officials said that Washington is considering strikes against high-level targets in Tehran. A former US intelligence official familiar with the White House’s internal debate explained that President Donald Trump was still pushing for regime change. 

The Jerusalem Post reports that a second option is to impose a blockade on Iranian oil shipments. Trump ordered a similar embargo on Venezuelan oil last year. The US then seized several tankers carrying Venezuelan oil and kidnapped President Nicolas Maduro. 

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has pushed for Trump to use economic warfare to bring down the Iranian government. He believes that if the economic situation in the Islamic Republic becomes desperate enough, the Iranian people will overthrow their government. 

Other members of Trump’s Cabinet, including Vice President JD Vance, have pushed the President to launch strikes targeting the Iranian government and military. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu favors military action if it leads to the fall of the Iranian government. 

Earlier this month, Trump declined to strike Iran out of concern that the US did not have enough military assets in the Middle East to topple the government in Tehran. A former US official told Middle East Eye that they believe a strike on Iran is more likely now than earlier this month. 

The President has ordered a significant military buildup in the region that includes an aircraft carrier strike group, fighter jets, and advanced air defense systems.