Does the Tail Wag the Dog? How Both Sides Are Missing
the Bigger Picture
Binary thinking in the argument over whether the US or
Israel is driving the illegal war on Iran obscures far more than it
illuminates. The truth is the dog and the tail are wagging each other
by Jonathan Cook | Mar 30, 2026
https://original.antiwar.com/cook/2026/03/29/does-the-tail-wag-the-dog-how-both-sides-are-missing-the-bigger-picture/
The joint US-Israeli war on Iran has thrust back into
the spotlight a divisive debate about whether the dog wags the tail, or the
tail wags the dog. Who is in charge of this war: Israel or the United States?
One side believes Israel lured Trump into a trap from
which he cannot extricate himself. The tail is wagging the dog.
The other believes that the US, as the world’s sole
military super-power, is the one that writes the geo-strategic script. If
Israel acts, it is only because it serves Washington’s interests as well. The
dog is wagging the tail.
Certainly, the idea that the tail, the client state of
Israel, could be wagging the dog, the military juggernaut that is the US,
seems, at best, counter-intuitive.
But then again, there is plenty of evidence that
suggests advocates for the tail wagging the dog scenario may have a case.
They can point to the fact that Trump launched this
war of choice on Iran despite winning the presidency on an “America First”
platform in which he promised: “I’m not going to start a war. I’m going to stop
wars.”
His secretary of state, Marco Rubio, openly stated that the administration was rushed into war,
finding itself apparently unable to restrain Israel from attacking Iran.
Jonathan Kent, Trump’s top counter-terrorism
official, noted in his resignation letter that the
administration “started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful
American lobby”.
Addressing the Israeli parliament last October, Trump
appeared to confess to being under the thumb of the Israel lobby. As he praised
himself for moving the US embassy from Tel Aviv to the illegally occupied city
of Jerusalem, he repeatedly pointed to his most influential donor, the
Israeli-American billionaire Miriam Adelson, before observing: “I actually
asked her once, I said, ‘So, Miriam, I know you love Israel. What do you love
more, the United States or Israel?’ She refused to answer. That means, that
might mean, Israel, I must say.”
A video from 2001 shows Benjamin Netanyahu, now Israel’s
prime minister, caught secretly on camera, telling a group of settlers: “I know what America
is. America is a thing you can move very easily, move it in the right
direction. They won’t get in the way.”
Former US President Barack Obama, who ran up against
Netanyahu repeatedly as Obama tried and failed to limit the expansion of
Israel’s illegal settlements, thought the same. In his 2020 autobiography,
he wrote that the Israel lobby insisted that “there
should be ‘no daylight’ between the US and Israeli governments, even when
Israel took actions that were contrary to US policy.”
Any politician who disobeyed “risked being tagged as
‘anti-Israel’ (and possibly anti-Semitic) and confronted with a well-funded
opponent in the next election”.
Messy arrangement
But any rigid, binary way of framing the relationship
between the US and Israel obscures more than it illuminates.
I addressed this issue in my 2008 book on Israeli
foreign policy, titled Israel and the Clash of Civilisations: Iran, Iraq and the Plan to Remake the Middle East. My conclusion then, as now, was that the
relationship between Washington and Tel Aviv was better understood in different
terms: as the dog and the tail wagging each other.
What does that mean?
Israel is Washington’s most favoured client state. It
must, therefore, operate within the “security” parameters for the Middle East
laid down by the US.
In fact, part of Israel’s job – the reason it is such
an important client state – is because it has, until now, been able to enforce
those parameters on others in the region.
But the story is more complicated than that.
At the same time, Israel seeks to maximize its ability
to influence those parameters in its own interests, chiefly by shaping
military, political and cultural discourse in the United States, through the
many levers available to it.
Zionist lobbies, both Jewish and Christian, mobilize
large numbers of ordinary people to support whatever Israel claims to be in
both its and US interests.
Mega-donors like Adelson use their wealth to cajole
and intimidate US politicians.
Think-tanks with murky funding write legislation on
Israel’s behalf that US politicians wave through.
Legal organizations, again with opaque funding,
weaponize the law to silence and bankrupt.
And media owners, all too often in Israel’s camp, mold
the public mood to stigmatize as “antisemitism” anything that opposes Israeli
excesses.
This makes for a very messy arrangement.
Disappearing Palestinians
The trouble with the idea that the US simply dictates
to Israel – rather than that the two are constantly bargaining over what
constitutes their shared interests – becomes apparent the moment we consider
the two-and-a-half-year genocide in Gaza.
Israel has long had a fervent desire to disappear the
Palestinians, whether through ethnic cleansing or genocide.
It wants the whole of historic Palestine, and the
Palestinians are an obstacle to the realization of that goal. Should the
opportunity arise, Israel is also keen to secure a Greater Israel that requires
grabbing and annexing substantial territory from neighbors, particularly
Lebanon and Syria – as it is doing again right now.
After the Hamas attack on 7 October 2023, Israel
seized on the chance to renew in earnest the ethnic cleansing of Palestinians
it began in 1948, at the state’s founding.
It carpet-bombed Gaza, creating a “humanitarian
crisis”, to force Egypt to open the floodgates into Sinai, where it hoped to drive the enclave’s population.
Cairo refused. As a result, Israel tried to increase the pressure by
slaughtering and starving the people of Gaza. In legal terms, that constituted
genocide.
But the idea that the US was deeply invested in Israel
carrying out a genocide in Gaza, or directed that genocide, or had any
particular interest in the genocide taking place, is hard to sustain.
Washington – first under Biden, then under Trump –
gave Israel cover to carry out the mass slaughter of the Palestinian
population, and armed and financed the genocide. But that is very different
from it having a geostrategic interest in the mass slaughter.
Rather, the US is and always has been largely
indifferent as to the fate of the Palestinians, so long as they are contained.
They can be locked up permanently in occupation prisons. Or ethnically cleansed
to Sinai and Jordan. Or given a pretend statelet under a compliant dictator
like Mahmoud Abbas. Or exterminated.
The US will bankroll whichever option Israel believes
best serves its interests – so long as that “solution” can be sold by
pro-Israel lobbies to western publics as a legitimate “response” to Palestinian
“terrorism”.
What Israel could get away with changed on 7 October
2023. The US was prepared to approve Israel shifting from a policy of
intermittently “mowing the lawn” in Gaza – short wrecking sprees – to the
incremental leveling of the whole of Gaza.
In other words, Israel worked all its levers to
persuade Washington that it was the right time for it to get away with
genocide. It sold to the US the plan that Gaza could now be destroyed.
To present that as Washington’s plan is simply
perverse. It was decisively Israel’s plan.
That doesn’t diminish in any way US responsibility for
the genocide. It is fully complicit. It paid for the genocide. It armed the
genocide. It must own it too.
Israeli attack dog
A similar analysis can be applied to the Iran war.
The US and Israel share the same larger policy towards
Iran: they want it contained, weak, unable to exert influence. But they do so
for slightly different reasons.
Israel demands to be regional hegemon in the Middle
East, an invaluable client state with privileged access to Washington
policymakers. Its supremacy and impunity, therefore, depend on Iran – its only
plausible rival in the region – being as weak as possible and incapable of
forging effective alliances with armed resistance groups such as Hizbullah in
Lebanon.
Equally, Washington wants Israel unthreatened, leaving
its ally free to project US imperial power into the Middle East.
But it has a more complex set of interests to
consider. It needs to ensure that the Arab monarchies remain compliant, and it
does so by both wielding a stick – threatening to unleash the attack dog of
Israel on them should they disobey – and proffering a carrot – promising to
shield them under its security umbrella against Iran so long as they stay
loyal.
The ultimate goal is to guarantee unchallenged US
control over the flow of oil and thereby the global economy.
In other words, the US has to weigh far more interests
in how it deals with Iran than Israel does.
Unlike Israel, Washington has to consider the effects
of an attack on Iran on the global economy, to assess any impact on the dollar
as the world’s reserve currency, and protect against rival powers like China
and Russia exploiting strategic missteps.
For those reasons, Washington has traditionally
preferred maintaining a degree of stability in the region. Instability is very
bad for business, as is being demonstrated only too clearly right now.
Israel, by contrast, regards its struggle against Iran
in existential terms. Many in the Israeli cabinet view it as a religious war.
They are not interested in simply containing Iran – a decades-old policy they
believe has failed. They want Iran and its allies on their knees, or at least
in so much chaos that they cannot pose any kind of challenge to Israeli
regional hegemony.
That point was highlighted by Jake Sullivan, Joe
Biden’s former national security adviser, this week in an interview with Jon
Stewart. He cited recent comments to him by Israel’s former military
intelligence lead on Iran, Danny Cintrinowicz, that Netanyahu’s aim is to “just
break Iran, cause chaos”. Why? “Because,” says Sullivan, “as far as they’re
concerned, a broken Iran is less of a threat to Israel.”
In other words, Israel wants to engineer instability
in Iran, which is sure to spread instability across the region.
Weaving mischief
Those two agendas, as should be clear by now, are not
easily compatible. Which is why Netanyahu has spent decades working every lever
at his disposal in Washington to create an appetite for war.
Had war been self-evidently in US interests, his
efforts would have been superfluous.
Instead Israel has had to deploy its lobbies, marshal
its donors and recruit sympathetic columnists to slowly shift the public mood
to the point where a war was conceivable rather than patently dangerous.
And most importantly of all, Israel nurtured an
intimate, ideological alliance with the neocons – hawkish, zealously pro-Israel
US officials – who long ago gained a foothold in the inner sanctums of
Washington.
Each recent administration has been a cat-fight over
whether the neocons or more “moderate” voices would win out. Under George W
Bush, the neocons dominated, leading to the invasion of Iraq in 2003, Israel’s
short war on Lebanon in 2006, and a failed plan to expand the war to Syria and
then Iran. I documented all of this in Israel and the Clash of
Civilisations.
Under Obama, the neocons were forced to take more of a
back seat, which is why his administration was able to sign a nuclear deal with
Iran that held until Trump ripped it up in 2018, during his first term as
president. Biden, as with so much else, dithered.
In Trump’s second term, the neocons seem to be firmly
back in charge, again weaving their mischief. The result – an illegal war on
Iran – is likely to be a strategic catastrophe for the US, and a potential, if
short-lived, victory for Israel.
Secret power
So isn’t this the same as saying the tail wags the
dog?
No, not least because that assumes the visible realm
of US politics – the President, the Congress, the two main political parties –
are the sole repositories of power in the system.
Even in this visible sphere, support for Israel has
dramatically waned since the Gaza genocide. As the illegal war on Iran grows
ever more costly, both in treasure and lives, support for Israel among US
voters is going to fall off a cliff.
Israel is for the first time a deeply partisan issue,
dividing Democrats and Republicans, as well as a generational divide between
the young and old. It is even splitting the MAGA base Trump depends on.
This political polarization will continue to get much
worse, ultimately freeing braver figures in US politics to start speaking out
in franker terms about Israel’s nefarious role.
But power in the US isn’t just wielded at the formal,
visible level. There is a permanent bureaucracy, with an institutional memory,
that operates out of sight. We have gained brief glimpses of its covert
operations from the work of Wikileaks, Julian Assange’s publishing platform for
whistleblowers, and from Edward Snowden, the whistleblower who revealed illegal
mass surveillance by the US state of its own citizens.
Both suffered serious consequences for their efforts
to bring a little transparency to a profoundly corrupt system of secret power.
Assange was locked away in a London high-security prison for many years as the
US sought to extradite him on trumped-up “espionage” charges, while Snowden was
forced into exile in Russia to evade arrest and long-term incarceration.
That bureaucracy – sometimes referred to as the Deep
State, or the military-industrial complex – doesn’t play or fight fair. It
doesn’t need to. It operates in the shadows.
Were it to so choose, it could undermine the Israel
lobby, and thereby curtail Israel’s influence over the visible realm of US
politics.
It could effectively do to the leaders of the lobby –
AIPAC, the Anti-Defamation League, the Zionist Organization of America, the
Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations, Christians
United for Israel, and others – what it did to Assange and Snowden.
It could, for example, influence public discourse to
begin questioning whether these groups are really serving US interests or
acting as foreign agents. That would, in turn, free up space for the media and
legislators to call for tighter restrictions on these groups’ activities,
requiring them to register as such.
The permanent bureaucracy is doubtless capable of
doing much darker, underhand things too.
The fact that it hasn’t chosen to do any of this yet
suggests Israel’s goals are not seen so far to be significantly in conflict
with US goals.
But that could be about to change. In fact, the
current, all-too-public debates about Israel driving the US into a war against
Iran – an idea already seeping into popular consciousness – may be the first
salvos in the battle to come.
If the war on Iran turns out to be a catastrophic
misstep, as it gives every appearance of being, there will be a price to pay –
and leading US politicians are likely to scramble to shift the blame on to
Israel. It may be that they are already getting in their excuses.
The all-too-visible freedom Israel has enjoyed in
Washington to buy, bully and silence could soon become a central liability. It
will not be hard to argue that a system so clearly open to manipulation that
the US could be bounced into a self-sabotaging war needs to be remade, to
prevent any repeat of such a disaster.
This may be the biggest lesson Washington learns from
the war on Iran. That it is time to stop the tail wagging so vigorously.