Inside Somaliland: The Israel-Turkey clash coming to the Horn of Africa

Somaliland officials say Yemen's Houthis need to be engaged, but they want to enlist Israel against Turkey and Somalia

Sean Mathews in Hergeisa

Published date: 2 October 2026

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/israel-turkey-clash-coming-horn-africa

Israel’s recognition of Somaliland has been framed as giving it a launchpad to strike Yemen’s Houthis across the Red Sea, but Israel could also be on a collision course with an even more strategic foe and US ally in the Horn of Africa: Turkey. 

Officials and analysts in Somaliland say their diplomatic normalisation with Israel in January 2026 -widely condemned by the wider Muslim and Arab world - was, in part, motivated by the need to check Turkey’s growing military footprint in Somalia.

Somaliland wants Israel to provide air defence systems to counter a build-up of Turkish drones and warplanes next door, officials in Hargeisa, the capital of Somaliland’s republic, which is recognised only by Israel, say.

“We need air defence systems,” Mohamed Osman Fadal, a senior foreign affairs advisor to Somaliland’s president, said in an interview. “Turkey has F-16s in Mogadishu, and it wants to build a drone base in Somalia.”

“We want Israel to support us against Turkey,” he said.

In half a dozen interviews with this Middle East Eye journalist, officials and analysts in Hergeisa said they believe Somalia, backed by Turkey’s military, can be countered through closer security ties with Israel.

'Engage the Houthis'

Mohamed Abdirahman Hassan is the director general of Somaliland's Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation. He cuts a smooth figure in Prada glasses and an olive green suit. We met in his air-conditioned and LED-illuminated office, whose modern design contrasts with the cracked concrete foreign ministry building siting inside a garden of palm trees and bougainvillaea.

Hassan said Somaliland had no choice but to “get involved in regional rivalries” when asked about the risks of entering a diplomatic deal with Israel that was so deeply opposed by most Muslim states, with the exception of the UAE.

“We have been too good,” he said. “We had been reaching out to Arab and Muslim countries for recognition since 1991. We had to move on. Israel recognised a gap here. We are proud to partner with the Israelis."

"We have a good army, but lack materials and equipment,” which he says the government hopes Israel supplies.

Hergeisa is a laid-back East African city; a mix of concrete and corrugated metal shops, many with hand-painted signs. In the afternoon, Somali men gather under acacia trees to sip black tea boiled with camel milk, cinnamon, cardamom, and cloves. Kat, the stimulant leaf chewed across the Gulf of Aden, is ubiquitous. Kat stalls are painted bright green so you can’t miss them.

“Kat is our curse,” one Hergeisa businessman who offered me a bunch of leaves said, smiling. 

Posters of President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi shaking hands with his Israeli counterpart, Isaac Herzog, were still visible in the capital weeks after the Somaliland president’s visit to Jerusalem. When this MEE journalist was in Hargeisa, the city's elite were turning out for a seminar by pro-Israel US academic. 

Many ordinary Somalilanders are sceptical of the ties, but when Israel’s recognition was announced, there were celebrations in the street, not protests.

“Can someone explain what Muslim country that dealt with Israel has actually benefited? Egypt? Jordan? Has Israel done anything for them? Let’s see,” Abdi, one Somalilander, said. Transactionalism seems to define how most Somalilanders view the deal. 

Somaliland is located on the Gulf of Aden. Many analysts see a quid pro quo developing, in which Israel's recognition allows it access to Somaliland's strategic coastline to potentially move against the Houthis. But Hassan and other officials I met were far less hostile to the Houthis than Israel. 

“The Houthis are not terrorists like al-Shabab. We reject that label. We are against confrontation in Yemen. The Houthis need to be engaged,” Hassan said.

Somalilanders say the common foe they share with Israel is Turkey. 

'Israel is here because of Turkey'

Israel and Turkey are wrestling for control in different spheres of the Middle East in the wake of the failed US-Israeli war on Iran. Their feud is escalating in hotspots like Syria, where Israel has pursued an expansionist agenda since the fall of the Bashar al-Assad government.

Somaliland’s rift with Mogadishu predates the tussle, but its entanglement underscores the complex web of alliances and rivalries reshaping the wider Red Sea.

“A lot of people think Israel and Turkey are gearing up for a fight, but there are too many eyes on Syria. The Horn could be where they test each other because it’s so out of the way. A big reason Israel has come to Somaliland is because of Turkey,” a former senior western diplomat in the region explained.

In his Cold War-era classic, War Clouds in the Horn of Africa, American academic Tom Farer summarised how the region lends itself to such competition, when the Horn of Africa was a battlefield between the US and Soviet Union.

At the time, Somaliland was united with Somalia, which had just fought a brutal war with neighbouring Ethiopia. That conflict saw one of the great Cold War alliance flip-flops of all time when Moscow switched backing Mogadishu in favour of Addis Ababa, and the US reciprocated.

Somaliland has governed itself independently from Somalia since the end of the Cold War. Regional rivalries have only become more convoluted since then.

Somaliland is aligned with the UAE, which is expanding its air and naval bases in Somaliland’s port city of Berbera, where the Gulf state also has the majority stake in a commercial port. Somaliland’s close ties with the UAE make it a logical partner for Israel.

Israel and the UAE have deepened their cooperation in the wake of the US-Israeli war on Iran. On the opposite side, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey have signed a joint defence agreement that is seen as a rival to their smaller neighbours’ bloc.

'Venue for confrontation by proxy'

The Somalis, a historically nomadic people who live across a swath of the Horn of Africa, are no strangers to outside powers trampling across their homeland as they jostle to control a key trade corridor.

The Ottomans and Portuguese battled for control of what is today’s Somaliland’s coast in the 16th century. The Ottomans were succeeded here by another Islamic empire, Khedival Egypt, which abandoned the region when its other colonial position, Sudan, erupted in a revolt led by Muhammad Ahmad, known as the Mahdi. Egypt’s retreat left a vacuum, and the land Somalis call home was carved up.

Britain swooped in and declared a protectorate in modern-day Somaliland. Not to be outdone, the French cemented their control of the Gulf of Tadjoura, where modern-day Djibouti lies, and Italy grabbed a Somali colony centred around Mogadishu. Menelik II, the future king of Ethiopia, took his own swath of land inhabited by Somalis, bringing them into a Christian kingdom.

That history still informs how officials in Hargeisa portray Somaliland to the outside world.

Ahmed Muse is an affable academic turned government advisor. He has a trim goatee, a wide smile, and a sharp grey suit whose working buttonholes betray it as custom. We met at the Sarovar, a sleek hilltop hotel favoured by visiting Gulf investors, western diplomats and, I was later told, Mossad.

Muse chafed at Arab and Muslim states’ criticism of Somaliland’s diplomatic deal with Israel.

“We [Somalis] lost the Somali region of Ethiopia to Menelik because the Egyptians and Turks - two Islamic powers-abandoned it,” he said, referring to the Ethiopian king. “If Turkey came to Hergaisa, would the Arab powers boycott Turkey?”

Somaliland remains bitter at Turkey for brokering a compromise that blocked Ethiopia from recognising Somaliland in exchange for access to the port of Berbera and a military base in the Gulf of Aden. Visiting Addis Ababa in February, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Israel’s recognition “does not benefit Somaliland or the Horn of Africa”.

'The Gulf states copied Turkey'

Turkey has emerged as Somalia’s most important external backer. The relationship goes back to 2011 when then-Prime Minister Erdogan became the first non-African leader to visit Somalia in two decades during a devastating drought. 

Turkey started building hospitals, roads, and even clearing garbage in the war-ravaged state. As the relationship matured, Turkey gained outsized influence over Somalia’s economy and its security institutions. Somalia is home to Turkey’s largest overseas base and a sprawling beachfront embassy.

Muse is at loggerheads with Mogadishu, but credits the “Turkish aid model” for transforming Africa’s relationship to rising powers.

“After the Cold War, the West only saw Africa through the prism of aid. Turkey saw a land with a lot of potential that had been neglected. It approached aid and security together. The Gulf states came and copied Turkey. The UAE was the first,” he said, referring to Somaliland’s closest Arab partner.

Somaliland’s history of independence long predates modern Turkey and the Arab Gulf’s interest in the Horn of Africa.

Somaliland won its independence in 1960, five days before neighbouring Somalia. From the start, the two suffered from an uneasy union that culminated in Somali ruler Mohamed Siad Barre overseeing a military onslaught against Somaliland in the late 1980s.

The Sarovar Hotel offers a stunning view of Hergeisa, which sits in a valley of the Ogo mountains, 4,300 feet above sea level. This old camel caravan town is a mushrooming metropolis of corrugated red iron roofs. Shanties and modern villas - that sell for upwards of $300,000 - are inching upwards to the surrounding hills.

Hergeisa's chaotic revival is something Somalilanders are proud of given that Barre flattened the entire city in a 1988 bombardment. A Soviet MiG-17 Jet marks the onslaught in a downtown war memorial.

The Sarovar is pricey, but not too stuffy. Teenagers and families mingle in the cliffside garden snapping photos of Hergeisa at dusk.

“We have a middle class here. The people you see aren’t just rich families,” a friend of Muse’s at our table told me, gesturing to the crowd.

Somalilanders say one reason they avoided the civil conflict that engulfed Somalia is that about 80 percent of their self-declared republic is comprised of one Somali clan, the Isaaq. The Somali people identify by clan, not tribe. There are five main Somali clans. 

Britain’s colonial legacy is also remembered differently here because it was so light-touch. The region was policed by the legendary Camel Corps whose main job was deferring to tribal law, called Xeer.

Irish writer Gerald Hanley colourfully hinted at an explanation for Britain’s limited interest in Somaliland in his memoir, Warriors: Life and Death Among the Somalis, about serving in the Camel Corps during WWII.

“[The Somalis], with their great vanity, and their touching bravery in the way which they try and cope with their difficult life have no palm oil, no cocoa, no coffee, gold, no diamonds to sell, only their camels”. For him, the Somali interior was an “arid world” where “nobody could remain sane”.

If Somaliland avoided the worst ravages of colonialism, its independence movement was also fortunate, Muse said.

Somaliland declared independence in 1991, as the Soviet Union collapsed. At the time, interventionists in the US were honing their sights on Mogadishu for a new military adventure abroad. 

“The global powers focused on Mogadishu, and Hergaisa was spared intervention,” Muse said.

“Independence came during the ‘unipolar moment’. If Somaliland had claimed independence today, things would be totally different because of all these competing powers,” he added.

For two decades, Somaliland’s relative stability, and even free elections, contrasted with the instability in Somalia. But that is starting to change and, long term, could complicate Somaliland's bid for global recognition. 

“Mogadishu is becoming a walkable city again. The kidnapping and bombing characterisation is an orientalist mischaracterisation," one Hergeisa resident who travels to the city told me.

Somalia took a major step in 2023 when the World Bank and International Monetary Fund forgave $4.5bn in loans, bringing Mogadishu’s debt-to-GDP close to zero.

The United Nations’ political mission in Somalia will close in October. “It’s Mogadishu that wants us out. They don’t like the idea of us advising them. They see themselves as a proper sovereign state,” one UN diplomat told MEE.

Somalia’s turn of fortune has come with Turkey entrenching itself in the poorer country’s security and defence institutions.

Turkey is training Somali commandos and coordinating strikes on al-Shabab with the country’s intelligence agency. Turkey has also deployed TB2 Bayraktar drones, F-16 fighter jets, and ATAK attack helicopters.

In 2024, Turkey signed a 10-year defence bill to build and train a Somali navy. The agreement places Somalia’s territorial waters - which include unrecognised Somaliland - under Turkey’s security umbrella.

Turkey has secured economic deals that some critics say lean on the extractive, given the imbalance between the two states. 

Ankara has a twenty-year lease to manage Mogadishu’s seaport and airport. Somalia has also pledged Turkey 30 percent of the revenue from any marine resources found in its exclusive economic zone. Ankara has a foothold in Somalia’s fisheries and is exploring for oil. The agreement gives Turkey the option to exploit waters Somaliland considers its own. 

“Turkey is a newcomer to the region. We have no issue with them. They have exploited Mogadishu’s resources,” Hassan, the director general of Somaliland's Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, said.

“[But] Mogadishu is thinking of an [invasion], and Turkey would back them. We need to position ourselves for the future,” he added.

Somalilanders would not be the first looking to shore up their security by aligning with Israel.

When the UAE came under Iranian attacks earlier this year, Israel sent Iron Dome defence batteries to protect its Gulf ally. Greece, an old foe of Turkey, recently signed a $3.5bn deal to purchase a layered Israeli air defence system. 

The risk for Somaliland, of course, is that inviting Israel in makes it a target, jeopardising the very stability Hargeisa prides itself on.

Somaliland is now surrounded by regional wars whose battle lines have descended into rival blocks that include Israel. 

Ethiopia, which has close ties to Israel and the UAE, is battling rebel groups that it says are backed by Egypt and Eritrea. Asmara and Cairo deny the allegation, but both are wary of Ethiopia's military links to Israel. 

Meanwhile, the Houthis have swept down Yemen's Red Sea coast, taking control of the Arabian Gulf side of the Bab el-Mandeb. Israel still has a score to settle with the group. 

These are just some of the risks to being Israel's bridgehead in the Horn of Africa. 

The American Public Has Turned on Israel. Washington Doesn’t Care.

Despite collapsing public support for Israel, neoconservative officials and media elites remain unwavering in their advocacy.

by Nolan Denaro | Oct 2, 2026

https://original.antiwar.com/nolan_denaro/2026/10/01/the-american-public-has-turned-on-israel-washington-doesnt-care/

For decades, American support for Israel was a bipartisan consensus. It was believed that only fringe figures, kooks, or antisemites would question the close bond between the two nations, and that this was a relationship forged on the grounds of mutual geopolitical interests.

Well, after years of Israel conducting a mass slaughter of innocent civilians in Gaza, and after having successfully convinced President Donald Trump to launch a disastrous war in Iran, American public opinion has taken a turn. According to a Marquette Law School survey from September 2026, 59 percent of American adults have an unfavorable view of Israel, compared to only 29 percent who say they have a favorable view of the country. This is a shocking collapse from where Israel’s support was just years ago.

The policy emanating from the U.S. government, however, has not reflected this change. In fact, our political leaders and media figures have decided that now is the time to showcase their undying loyalty to Israel in a very transparent fashion.

On September 29, the Senate voted on a resolution introduced by Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD), Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA), and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), that sought to force the State Department to report to Congress on the killing of U.S. citizens by Israeli settlers in the West Bank. The resolution was rejected with a 47-51 vote, with Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) being the only member of the GOP to buck party lines and support the resolution.

Besides Paul, every Senate Republican – as well as Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) – voted against transparency on the issue of American citizens being killed overseas by violent settlers. What could the possible justification be for such a vote?

Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT), who voted “nay”, claims that the resolution was “another cynical ploy by Democrats to isolate our closest ally in the region.”

Not really a substantive rationale for opposing transparency on American civilians being attacked and killed abroad.

The GOP isn’t the only place where loyalty to Israel remains unshaken. Mike Huckabee, the U.S. ambassador to Israel, has again made statements that, at first glance, seem almost comically deranged.

In a recent virtual appearance at the “Pray Vote Stand Summit,” Huckabee was asked to identify the greatest threat facing Israel (as if that should be the primary concern of a U.S. official). He responded by saying that Israel’s most pressing danger does not come from a regional enemy, but from the collapse in support among the American populace.

“I think the greatest threat to Israel,” Huckabee explained, “is that they would be abandoned by those who should be their natural allies. Let me begin with the United States. We get more from Israel than we give to Israel, but most Americans don’t know it.”

“What I’m seeing happen in Europe, their turning against Israel and against the Jewish people,” Huckabee added. “This is setting up for a real challenge and a conflict not between countries, but between heaven and hell, light and darkness, truth and lies.”

“Some of the nations… have created for themselves a disastrous future by saying, yeah, we’re going to curse Israel. Well, based on Genesis 12, I don’t recommend it.”

Huckabee is implying here that by withholding support for Israel, European nations – and those who would do the same in America – have enacted a curse upon themselves and their countries. Huckabee’s position, therefore, is that we can never withdraw support for Israel, regardless of whether or not it’s in our nation’s interests. In doing so, he fears, we would be sentencing ourselves to hell.

Huckabee has articulated this stance before, so it comes as little surprise that he would make such an outlandish statement. Yet one can’t help but be startled by the fact that this man – delusions and all – is a government official.

A core source of Israeli influence is the neoconservative media. A cast of pro-Israel characters have been busy over the last few years doing damage control, attempting to reverse the draining of American support for Israel.
Mark Dubowitz, CEO of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), is one of the most prominent advocates for a close U.S.-Israel relationship. He published an article in FDD on September 6 discussing the risk of Israel becoming financially isolated on the global stage. In his piece, he gave the Israeli government advice on how to prepare for such a scenario. One of his recommendations was deeply concerning:

“Israel and the United States should deepen their military, technological, intelligence and economic integration,” Dubowitz said, “to such an extent that inflicting financial harm on Israel would also carry a significant cost for Washington.”

Dubowitz went on to reiterate this message, saying in an interview later that month that Israel has “got to make the relationship deeper.”

“You’ve got to make Israel so valuable… that weaponizing that financial relationship against Israel is going to impose costs on the United States.”

At first glance, this can seem like a rather unimportant statement. After all, Dubowitz isn’t a government official, and can’t personally enact these policy proposals. However, Dubowitz is a highly-influential figure in D.C. foreign policy circles, who Trump has personally cited on his Truth Social. Here, he is using his influence to push for America to become so intertwined with Israel that leaving the relationship would inflict harm on our nation.

Something along these lines has been attempted in Congress. Earlier this year, the House of Representatives passed the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) in a 216-212 vote, which included a provision known as Section 219. This provision seeks to expand U.S.-Israeli military cooperation, deepening the relationship between Tel Aviv and Washington.

Backlash was swift from almost every faction of the American political scene. Tucker Carlson called the provision “grotesque,” saying “every person who votes for this is going to have to answer for it, in this life and the next.” Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA) struck a similar tone, urging that “we need to stand up for American sovereignty.”

Public opinion polling reflected Carlson and Khanna’s anger. A survey from Data for Progress found that 61 percent of Americans opposed Section 219. Despite this proposal’s unpopularity with the public, it would go on to pass the vote in the House.

The disconnect between Washington and the rest of the country continues to expand. In poll after poll, the American public expresses a deep skepticism – if not outright disapproval – of the U.S.-Israel relationship. Yet as the voters slowly become more unified on this issue, those in power dig their heels in deeper. Unrelenting in their support of a foreign nation, they are now embracing the open rejection of their constituent’s wishes.

We’ve known for a long time that Washington has its own set of interests, which they consistently prioritize over ours. It is particularly unbearable, however, for Washington elites to proudly boast of putting another nation’s interests at the forefront of their policymaking. At some point, enough is enough. America must reclaim its sovereignty.

Macklemore ‘blown away’ after Palestine tour sells out ‘immediately’

DPA

Wed, September 30, 2026 

https://es-us.vida-estilo.yahoo.com/macklemore-anuncia-conciertos-propalestina-agotaron-214702581.html

Macklemore has stated that tickets for his "Free Palestine" tour—announced following the controversy surrounding Ed Sheeran's concerts—sold out immediately.

Last week, the American rapper announced that he would be joined by other musicians—whose names are yet to be revealed—for three concerts taking place in October at Dublin’s 3Arena, Paris’s Accor Arena, and London’s Wembley Arena. All proceeds from the concerts will go to organizations supporting Palestinians.

"I am truly blown away," said Macklemore in a statement announcing the tour's sell-out. He continued: "We put these shows together quickly and in community, believing that musicians can show solidarity with Palestine, use the stage to raise funds, and demonstrate what collective action can look like."

"When those in power try to silence our cries for liberation, art will always be a form of resistance. Dublin, Paris, and London—thank you for your support. The response to these concerts is yet another reminder of how many people around the world are uniting for a free Palestine," he added.

Earlier this month, Macklemore announced that he had been dropped from the U.S. dates of Sheeran’s *Loop* tour due to his pro-Palestine comments on stage. He stated that Robert Kraft—CEO of the Kraft Group, which owns Gillette Stadium in Massachusetts, USA—had personally called Sheeran to inform him that he would not be permitted to perform at the venue.

Sheeran faced harsh criticism from fans and commentators for initially responding that he would not engage in a public debate regarding the war in Gaza and that the decision to drop Macklemore had been made by the promoter. The controversy deepened when other opening acts for Sheeran withdrew, while protesters gathered outside his first concert without Macklemore last week.

While Macklemore responded to the situation by announcing his own charity tour, it appears that fans who changed their minds about seeing Sheeran are struggling to resell their tickets, with resale prices plummeting across various platforms. As of this writing, a single ticket for Sheeran’s October 3 concert in Atlanta is selling for $19.49 (including fees) on Ticketmaster. Hundreds of tickets are available.

The Independent has contacted representatives for Sheeran and Macklemore for comment.

Even before the controversy, many dates on Sheeran’s Loop tour had failed to sell out, with hundreds of tickets still available for some of the large stadium shows.

According to Ticketdata, a website that tracks changes in resale ticket prices, resale prices for Sheeran’s upcoming concerts have dropped sharply, with some even falling below their original face value.

Sheeran addressed the aftermath of the onstage incident during a concert at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, saying he was deeply sorry for having disappointed his fans.

He then clarified his stance on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, stating: "What happened in Israel and at the music festival (Supernova Sukkot Gathering) on ​​October 7 was horrific and compounded centuries of Jewish suffering. But what is happening in Gaza is catastrophic, unjustifiable, and disproportionate."

Upon announcing his "Free Palestine" tour, Macklemore declared: "If the last few weeks have shown us anything, it’s that something has changed over the past three years. There has been a collective awakening regarding Palestinian liberation, as well as the power of billionaires trying to censor that outcry and what we expect from artists today."

The "Thrift Shop" rapper continued: "What happened to me goes beyond any single artist or stage. When the billionaire class can decide which voices are allowed on stage and which ones are too dangerous to be heard, everyone should pay attention."

The Mirage of Statecraft: America’s Blind Drift in West Asia

by M. Reza Behnam | Sep 30, 2026 

https://original.antiwar.com/reza_behnam/2026/09/29/the-mirage-of-statecraft-americas-blind-drift-in-west-asia/

For decades, the architecture of West Asia has rested on a comforting fiction: that Pax Americana could indefinitely manage the region through the policy of offshore balancing, security guarantees to autocrats and the supreme might of the U.S. military.

That order is gone. Not bruised, not bending, but wholly vaporized.

Washington’s illusion that it could facilely pivot away from the region while maintaining a stranglehold on its security dynamics has collided with the hard reality of enduring quagmires. Current historical events have swept away the geopolitical framework of the past that relied on predictable diplomatic patterns, managed proxy clashes and the arrogant belief that normalization pacts could be achieved while entirely ignoring public sentiment.

As Washington stumbles through the wreckage, one inescapable harrowing question hangs in the air: the old-order is spent; the status quo is dead; America is rudderless, clueless and at war. So what now?

To understand how the United States found itself adrift, one must confront a bipartisan delusion. For a quarter century, since the launch of the “war on terror,” U.S. strategists have operated on the flawed belief that military might could permanently freeze a dynamic region in embers.

Washington thought it could dispense billions in weaponry, project power through sprawling military bases across the Persian Gulf and treat the fundamental grievances of millions as merely background noise. It assumed that Arab rulers would remain compliant, that energy routes would remain permanently pacified by default and that their adversaries, like Iran, could be permanently contained through economic starvation, sabotage and periodic airstrikes.

The foundation has buckled under the weight of its own contradictions. The proliferation of precision drones, ballistic missiles and asymmetric warfare has punctured the myth of invulnerability. The comforting scripts of past decades no longer apply.

The United States now finds itself entangled in ever-widening military clashes. It is a superpower operating on muscle memory, reacting with kinetic force and without a coherent doctrinal compass. A rudderless empire is dangerous; not because of its strength, but because of its unpredictability.

Washington’s current geopolitical posture fluctuates between grand attempts to engineer a “new regional order” through flawed summits and reactively managing wars without a clear vision. Policy roadmaps look brilliant in think tanks, but they completely fail to align with the fractured realities of Beirut, San’a, Tehran, or Gaza. Policymakers ignore the reality that regional state and non-state actors have learned to operate around, beneath and directly against American power.

To label the current American establishment “clueless” is not an insult; it is a structural diagnosis. There is a profound failure of imagination among leaders who refuse to accept that U.S. hegemony in West Asia is no longer the organizing principle of local affairs. Regional powers are hedging, diversifying partnerships by building stronger ties with China and Russia, while pursuing their own agendas independent of Washington’s preferences.

When fighting a war you do not know how to exit and clinging to a status quo that has turned to ashes, you are no longer shaping events. Events are shaping you.

If the old superpower playbook is bankrupt and you are flying blind, what comes next? It is unrealistic to believe that the political conditions that led to the 1995 Oslo Accords or the 2010-2011 Arab Spring can be recreated today.

The Gaza revolution of October 7, 2023, alongside the ongoing U.S.-Israel war against Iran, have established a completely new reality for the region. The road ahead for the United States demands a radical sober geopolitical reckoning built on epochal realities; much like the following:

• Acknowledge the limits of power: Washington must accept that it can no longer dictate and control the geopolitical dynamics of the Levant and the Persian Gulf. It cannot rely on sheer military might to sustain its regional alliances with undemocratic regimes. The U.S.-led security framework has been exposed as an outdated fantasy that needs to be completely abandoned. Security will increasingly be negotiated, or fought over, by the people who actually live there.

• Prioritize diplomatic statecraft over force: A realistic withdrawal from the addiction to endless interventions is long overdue. If the U.S. insists on maintaining a footprint in the region, it must replace its default reliance on military force and transactional alliances with diplomacy involving all regional stakeholders. It cannot continue treating allies merely as military outposts and and gas stations.

• Stop enabling the Zionist colony: High priority must be given to the immediate cessation of all military assistance and diplomatic backing for Israel; ending the decades-long blank check policy. Washington should instead leverage its significant economic and diplomatic weight to end the genocide in occupied Gaza and the West Bank and halt Israel’s military escalation against its neighbors.

• Palestinian grievances must be addressed: True lasting regional peace is impossible without placing justice for the Palestinians at the center of all diplomatic efforts. The United States must pivot toward comprehending and addressing root political grievances rather than furthering Israel’s reliance on brute military force. Until Washington transitions from active accomplice in Israel’s protracted expansive wars and begins acting as an honest broker bound by international law, any talk of regional stability will remain a cruel and lethal mirage.

The courage of regional state and non-state actors who, at great cost, have been resisting injustice has inspired a wave of action among frustrated, subjugated and oppressed people across the globe.

West Asia is writing a new chapter in real time. It is being written in the ink of shifting alliances, bitter resentments and intense struggles for local autonomy. The United States will be left completely sidelined, bypassed not by another global superpower, but by the relentless march of a region that has finally learned to move forward without asking permission from Washington. America’s political class must wake up to the changing reality.

US arms sales to Israel worth $21.6 billion in 20 months

US arms deals for Israel reached $21.6 billion under Trump, including billions in bombs, missiles and military equipment 

Mohamed Elbedewy

Washington, D.C.

25 September, 2026

https://www.newarab.com/news/us-arms-sales-israel-surge-216-bn-20-months

Notifications submitted by the US President Donald Trump administration to Congress, along with US State Department data covering the period from 20 January 2025 to 17 September 2026, show that the Trump administration has approved arms deals for Israel worth $21.6 billion in just 20 months.

The value of military aid, funded by US taxpayers, and arms deals approved by former President Joe Biden for Israel between October 2023 and early 2025 exceeded $17.9 billion, according to a study by Brown University.

These weapons were used in the genocide in Gaza and the killing of more than 50,000 civilians, children and women during this period.

September 2026: $2.8 billion in weapons

The US State Department informally notified the offices of the four top Republican and Democratic members in the House of Representatives and Senate last week of a $2.8 billion military aid deal involving new weapons for Israel that Washington is preparing to conclude.

The deal includes 40,000 2,000-pound bombs, 20,000 BLU-117 bombs and 20,000 I-2000 penetrating warheads.

A 2,000-pound bomb is considered one of the most destructive munitions in the world, as its explosion sends metal fragments thousands of feet in all directions and can penetrate metal and thick concrete.

Despite opposition from Democrats, the deal is expected to pass as usual under emergency authority that allows the administration to bypass congressional objections.

Historically, Congress has failed to stop any arms deal.

The following are the main previous large deals:

January 2025: $2.04 billion

After the Biden administration had previously sent shipments of 2,000-pound bombs to Israel, and as criticism mounted following their use in the genocide in Gaza and the killing of tens of thousands of children and women, his administration suspended one shipment in 2024.

In the first week of the Trump administration after his return to the White House in January 2025, he announced the immediate lifting of the ban on that shipment.

The shipment was valued at $2.04 billion.

February 2025: $7.4 billion

In the first week of February 2025, the US State Department informed Congress in two separate statements that it had approved an arms deal for Israel worth $7.4 billion.

It included 20,000 bombs, guidance systems and equipment worth $6.75 billion, and 3,000 Hellfire air-to-ground missiles worth $660 million.

The administration bypassed congressional notification to obtain approval.

The Trump administration used emergency powers that allow for immediate sales, citing national security interests, to bypass the usual congressional review procedures.

It provided Israel with a $675 million deal including 5,000 1,000-pound bombs and guidance kits and a $295 million deal including Caterpillar bulldozers.

The deal was announced at a value of $3.01 billion, but it included what the administration had announced in January 2025.

June 2025: $510 million

Following the US-Israeli attack on Iran in June 2025, and to rebuild Israel's stockpile, the Trump administration approved the provision of high-precision guidance systems to the Israeli military, worth $510 million.

The deal included more than 7,000 guidance kits for offensive munitions.

January 2026: $6.67 billion

In September 2025, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing sources, that the Trump administration was seeking congressional approval for an arms deal with Israel worth more than $6 billion.

The deal would be funded through the Foreign Military Financing programme, or military aid.

In January, the deal was announced with a total value of $6.67 billion. It includes 30 Apache helicopters, doubling Israel's fleet of this type of aircraft, 3,250 assault vehicles and other equipment.

March 2026: $650 million

One week after the US-Israeli war on Iran began this year, Israel requested more than 20,000 bombs.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, as stated in a statement in March 2026, determined that an emergency existed requiring the sale to Israel to be completed immediately and the deal to be exempted from congressional review.

The deal was announced at a value of $650 million and included 12,000 1,000-pound bombs, as well as 500-pound bombs.

Reuters also quoted an official as saying that Israel would purchase an additional $298 million worth of munitions through direct sales.

May 2026: $992 million

On 1 May, Rubio again used emergency powers to approve a deal for Israel to purchase 10,000 APKWS laser-guided rocket systems worth $992.4 million.

These rockets have been used as countermeasures against Iranian drones because of their lower cost compared with expensive weapons.

This means that the total value of the deals announced and approved by the administration so far is $19.2 billion.

It will rise to $21.6 billion when the administration completes procedures for the latest deal, with at least half of the amount being military aid funded by US taxpayers.

Israel bans Arab parties from election: Who they are, why it matters

Israeli politicians under ICC arrest warrants or international sanctions remain eligible to run.

By Caolán Magee

Published On 26 Sep 2026

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/26/israel-bans-arab-parties-from-election-who-they-are-why-it-matters

Israel’s Central Elections Committee has voted to bar the country’s two main Arab-majority political lists from next month’s parliamentary election, potentially leaving Palestinian citizens of Israel without their principal representatives in the Israeli parliament, the Knesset.

The committee also voted to disqualify Ofer Cassif, a Jewish politician from the Arab-Jewish Hadash party, and Sami Abu Shehadeh, the leader of the Palestinian nationalist Balad party.

The votes are not the final word on who can run in the October 27 election. The Supreme Court is expected to review the decisions next week and has overturned previous attempts to exclude Arab parties and candidates.

But the committee’s decision has already prompted accusations of double standards, with Palestinian-led parties facing exclusion while parties led by far-right ministers, some of whom have been sanctioned internationally, remaining on the ballot. Here is what the decision means.

Which parties have been barred?

The committee voted to disqualify two separate groups. The first is the Joint List, an alliance of Hadash, Balad and Ta’al. The second is Ra’am, also called the United Arab List, which is running on its own. Both rely on support from Palestinian citizens of Israel, who make up about one-fifth of the country’s population.

The Joint List

This brings together three parties. Hadash is a left-wing party with Jewish and Arab members, Ta’al campaigns primarily for the rights of Palestinian citizens of Israel, and Balad calls for a state with equal rights for all its citizens. They agreed to contest this election on a single list, meaning their candidates would appear together on the ballot.

It is an electoral tactic used to not split votes among parties that are similar ideologically. A list must also win at least 3.25 percent of the national vote to enter the Knesset, so by joining forces, smaller parties combine their votes and reduce the risk that each falls below the threshold – in which case none of them would win seats.

In the current 120-seat Knesset, the Hadash-Ta’al alliance holds five seats. Of the Hadash-Ta’al seats, three belong to Hadash politicians and two to Ta’al. Balad has no seats.

Ra’am

Led by Mansour Abbas, it is running separately. It has been more willing to negotiate with other parties over funding and services for Arab communities. Ra’am joined the broad coalition that governed Israel from 2021 to 2022. The Joint List did not join that government.

In the current Knesset, Ra’am holds five seats.

Why have these parties been barred?

The decision followed petitions by the right-wing parties, Likud and Otzma Yehudit, which accused the parties and candidates of denying Israel’s existence as a Jewish and democratic state, supporting armed struggle against Israel or inciting racism.

The committee is chaired by a Supreme Court justice, but its voting members represent parties in the outgoing Knesset. Politicians therefore vote on whether rival parties and candidates can contest the election, although the Supreme Court has the final say.

The committee voted 18-5 to bar Ra’am and, in a separate vote, 18-5 to bar the Joint List. It also voted 18-5 to bar Cassif and 31-4 to bar Abu Shehadeh, according to Adalah, the Palestinian legal rights group representing the lists and candidates.

Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara opposed the disqualification of the two lists and Cassif, saying the evidence did not meet the legal threshold. She took a different position on Abu Shehadeh, however. The case against him centres in part on an article he wrote on October 8, 2023, the day after Hamas’s attacks on Israel.

The article was published on the Arab 48 website and referred to the attack as “an important historic event militarily, politically and strategically”.

The attorney general claimed its wording could amount to support for armed struggle.

Abu Shehadeh rejects that reading. He said on X that he opposed armed struggle and supported a “political and civil struggle for peace, justice, and equality”.

Other opposition parties in Israel support the disqualification of Abu Shehadeh. Yair Golan, leader of the opposition Democrats party, said of Abu Shehadeh: “Whoever wants a Jewish-Arab partnership does not speak this way, period,” he said, calling any legitimacy given to armed struggle or harm to civilians “a red line”.

Adalah disputes the case against Abu Shehadeh. It says the article contains no call for violence and argues that the petitions against the Joint List largely rely on old material or positions previously examined by the courts. It plans to challenge the decisions in the Supreme Court.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, meanwhile, remains eligible to run, despite being the subject of an International Criminal Court (ICC) arrest warrant over alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza, and a corruption trial that began in 2020 and remains ongoing. Netanyahu denies the allegations against him.

Cassif, whose disqualification from a previous election was overturned by the Supreme Court in 2019, called Wednesday’s decisions “another nail in the coffin of the remnants of democracy” in Israel. He said he and the Joint List would be in the next Knesset.

Attempts to exclude Arab candidates are not new. Adalah has documented challenges in elections in 2003, 2013, 2015, 2020 and 2022. The Supreme Court has repeatedly reversed committee decisions, but that history offers no guarantee of what it will do this time.

What about the far right?

Petitions which sought to disqualify the two far-right ministers in Netanyahu’s cabinet, National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit party and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism party, were rejected by the election committee.

Ben-Gvir and Smotrich have both advocated the displacement of Palestinians from Gaza and the annexation of the occupied West Bank, and face international sanctions over their actions and rhetoric towards Palestinians.

Attorney General Baharav-Miara, who has repeatedly clashed with Netanyahu’s government, said the bids to bar the far-right parties lacked a legal basis, according to Haaretz. However, for his part, Golan has said he supported disqualifying Ben-Gvir as well.

Netanyahu, meanwhile, remains eligible to run, despite an International Criminal Court arrest warrant over alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza, and a corruption trial that began in 2020 and remains ongoing. Netanyahu denies the allegations against him.

Human rights advocate Ubai Al-Aboudi condemned the decision. The committee, he told Al Jazeera, has decided “not to bar Israeli politicians, parties or lists that are openly calling for the ethnic cleansing and genocide of Palestinians”.

“It has not even decided to view their statements as extreme.

“This shows that the current Israeli political structure still views Palestinians as a demographic threat, is still vilifying Palestinians.”

What happens now?

About one-fifth of Israel’s population is Palestinian. If the Supreme Court upholds the votes against both Ra’am and the Joint List, voters could still cast ballots for other parties, but neither of the two main Arab-majority lists would be able to contest the election. The court will also decide whether Cassif and Abu Shehadeh can stand.

Al-Aboudi said earlier attempts to bar Arab representatives had been overturned, but this vote went further. “It is the first time that all representation has been barred,” he said, describing it as a sign of “the mentality and extremism of the current Israeli political structure”.

The final decision rests with the Supreme Court. Al-Aboudi said its past rulings offer some grounds for hope, but added that, given the present political atmosphere, it is unclear whether it would overturn “part, all or none” of the committee’s decisions.