How the Red Sea came to the brink of a new regional war
A war between Ethiopia and Eritrea would not be
isolated this time, and would likely draw in regional powers
Published date: 9 October 2026
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/how-red-sea-came-brink-new-regional-war
Overconfident.
That is how best to describe the mood in the capitals
of Ethiopia and Eritrea as the two neighbours slide to the verge of an all-out
war that risks dragging in outside powers and destabilising the Red Sea, which
is already convulsed by wars in Sudan and Yemen.
The chances of a regional war are higher than
containing the conflict because people close to decision-makers on both sides
are making calculations based on their foes' perceived weaknesses and
discounting their own vulnerabilities.
“All the leaders in the region say ‘we don’t want a
regional war’, but that doesn’t prevent us from walking backwards into one,”
Cameron Hudson, an Africa analyst and former CIA official, told Middle East
Eye.
There are three levels to this conflict: Ethiopia's
internal fissures, historic tensions with Eritrea, and the enabling role Middle
Eastern powers are playing.
From Ethiopia, to Eritrea and the Middle East
The core issue is a fight among Ethiopia’s ethnic
groups over their country’s government. This is complex because Ethiopia has 80
ethnic groups. The main ones are Oromo, Amhara, Tigrayan, Somali, and Afar.
Some of them have their own well-armed militias.
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is trying to change
Ethiopia's government from one based on ethnic federalism to a more centralised
system of rule.
The hostilities began after the Tigray People’s
Liberation Front (TPLF), an Ethiopian rebel group, went on the offensive in
September, vowing to topple Prime Minister Ahmed's government. TPLF’s early
gains included taking control of the Tigray capital Mekelle. But they were
quickly reversed by Ethiopia's government forces.
The second level of the conflict is a longstanding
rivalry between Eritrea and Ethiopia.
After WWII, Eritrea, once an Italian colony, was
federated with Ethiopia, and in 1962, it was unilaterally annexed by Addis
Ababa. After a three-decade-long insurgency, Eritrea became independent in 1993
under a United Nations referendum.
The two neighbours actually joined forces to fight
against the TPLF in Ethiopia’s 2020-2022 civil war, but have generally had
hostile relations. Ethiopia has made revisionist claims about acquiring
Eritrea’s Red Sea coast, and Eritrea has supported militias inside Ethiopia
opposed to the federal government.
Addis Ababa this week accused Eritrea of sending
thousands of troops across the border to support the TPLF.
Multiple current and former US, EU and African
officials tell MEE that Eritrean troops have entered Tigray where they are
partaking in fighting. Ethiopia launched drone strikes on the Eritrean troops
on Wednesday and Thursday, according to monitoring group ACLED.
Eritrea and Ethiopia last fought a war from 1998 to
2000. The conflict was bloody but largely contained. Now, a war between the two
would likely pull in regional powers that did not have a stake in the fighting
two decades ago.
Ethiopia is close to the United Arab Emirates and
Israel. Addis Ababa has received drones and weapons systems from the UAE.
Eritrea suspects Israel and the UAE would back a push by Addis Ababa to take
its Red Sea coastline, hoping to gain access to a strategic sliver of that
territory.
Eritrea has forged close ties with Somalia, Egypt and
the Sudanese Armed Forces. All these countries oppose Abiy Ahmed’s government.
Eritrea has also been moving closer to Saudi Arabia, which has diverged with
the UAE over African hotspots such as Sudan and Somaliland.
Formal declaration of war anticipated
Ethiopia and Eritrea have shuttered their respective
embassies this week.
Ethiopia may issue a formal declaration of war against
Eritrea in the coming days, a former senior European official with knowledge of
the matter told MEE.
In a letter sent to the UN on Thursday, Ethiopia
accused Eritrea of “a blatant act of aggression that engages Ethiopia’s
inherent right to self-defense”.
“Eritrea is the aggressor, Ethiopia is the victim.
Eritrea is violating Ethiopia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity,” Addis
Ababa said.
For its part, Eritrea has shot back.
“Ethiopia has in essence declared a war of aggression
against Eritrea when its prime minister announced to his Parliament on 13
October 2023 that his regime will acquire ‘sovereign access to the sea’,
through negotiations if possible and by force if necessary,” Eritrean
Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel said on Friday.
Tekeda Alemu, a career Ethiopian diplomat and former
ambassador to the UN, told MEE that the two countries were already effectively
at war.
“It’s very clear Eritreans have penetrated deep into
Ethiopian territory. We are in the midst of war, even though it hasn’t been
declared. The war is going on,” he said.
So far, Ethiopian Federal troops have performed well
in the conflict. But the TPLF has shown it has the ability to regenerate, as it
effectively forced federal forces out of Tigray in 2020 after being driven into
the mountains by them.
'Formidable alliance'
One twist to the conflict is the internal situation in
Ethiopia. In September, the TPLF announced an alliance with six other armed
Ethiopian groups that say their goal is to overthrow Abiy’s Ahmed government.
This alliance includes Fano, a militia made up of
Amharas. This group has long seen themselves as the custodians of Ethiopia’s
multi-ethnic state. The last emperor of Ethiopia, US-ally Haile Selassie, was
Amhara, as were the main leaders of the Derg, the Soviet Union-backed Marxist
junta that ruled Ethiopia from 1975-1991. The TPLF ruled Ethiopia from the
collapse of the Derg until 2018, when Abiy Ahmed took office.
Not all members of these ethnic groups back the
alliance to overthrow Abiy Ahmed, who has tapped into Oromo nationalism, his
own ethnic group. But Oromos also oppose Abiy Ahmed. The Oromo Liberation Army
is part of the alliance to topple his government.
Alemu said that this alliance can’t be discounted.
“What is not clear is what the alliance is intending
to do. They haven’t begun to start a full-scale war. The alliance can not be
brushed aside. It is formidable, as is the government side,” he told MEE.
Addis Ababa has accused Eritrea of orchestrating the
alliance to oust Abiy Ahmed. While Asmara denies this, Eritrean officials who
spoke to MEE warned of the dangers the alliance poses to Abiy Ahmed.
But analysts say the alliance might be over-hyped.
“The TPLF has overestimated themselves. They also
overestimated the support they’d receive from Amharas and Oromos in this
alliance,” an analyst in Addis Ababa, who spoke with MEE on condition of
anonymity, said.
The former senior western official told MEE that Abiy
Ahmed may have welcomed the TPLF’s uprising in September because it brought
simmering tensions with Eritrea to a head, giving him the opportunity to
finally push towards the Red Sea. A US official in the region familiar with the
decision-making in the Horn of Africa concurred with that assessment.
“The Eritreans have moved preemptively. The question
is, have they fallen into a trap?” The former western official said. “Ethiopia
will not only confront the Eritreans with ground forces, but they will launch
aerial attacks on Eritrea. If the Ethiopian army moves, it will be in order to
go to Asmara and Assab. They will not stop at the frontier."
Sirak Kifle, an Eritrean analyst who regularly speaks
with officials in Asmara, told MEE that Ethiopia has long wanted an excuse to
push towards the Red Sea. “Abiy is aiming at the ports of Eritrea,” he told
MEE.
He added that the TPLF was still an effective fighting
force that can’t be discounted. “Addis Ababa has brought around 400,000
soldiers into Tigray. So, it’s not difficult to fight the TPLF in the short term
but is that sustainable?” he asked.
Cameron Hudson said Ethiopian federal forces are in
better condition now than they were during the last conflict.
“Ethiopia has a ripping economy, a ton of money and
deep-pocketed allies in the UAE and Israel. Abiy Ahmed has learned from the
last war in Tigray and the numbers are on his side,” he said.
The regional actors
This is where the regional alliances come back into
play. If Ethiopia moves out of Tigray and attempts to capture Eritrea’s Red Sea
coastline, it will hit the Horn of Africa like a tsunami.
Ethiopia and Egypt are long-time rivals. Cairo has
grown more concerned about Ethiopia since it completed the Grand Ethiopian
Renaissance Dam. Addis Ababa is now moving to build new dams on the Nile River
that Cairo says threaten its national security. Egypt is also wary of Ethiopia
acquiring a naval presence in the Red Sea.
Somalia and Ethiopia also have a difficult
relationship. Mogadishu was unnerved by Ethiopia’s flirtation with recognising
the Republic of Somaliland, a breakaway state acknowledged only by Israel.
Ethiopia is also deeply intertwined in Sudan’s civil
war. Addis Ababa supports the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a militia backed by
the UAE that has been accused of committing genocide. Eritrea and Ethiopia both
back the Sudanese Armed Forces. The TPLF is also fighting alongside the
Sudanese army against the RSF.
The network of states that would oppose an Ethiopian
advance towards the Red Sea - Egypt, Sudan, Somalia and Eritrea - all met in
the Egyptian city of El Alamein on Sunday. The countries agreed to coordinate
military and intelligence efforts if the war in Tigray expands, Reuters
reported.
“This war is still a tussle over Tigray. It is one
step away from becoming a war over the Red Sea,” the former senior western
official said.