Trump: When the only friends you have left are Bushies and neocons
The warmaking president is shedding his base. But the
last ones on the MAGA bus may be the first to leap off at any sign of political
trouble.
Apr 27, 2026
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/trump-base-iran-war/
In May 2025, President Donald Trump declared that the neoconservative era was over. This was
of course not new rhetoric. He didn’t always live up to it, but Trump always
made sure that bashing neocons and the Bush era and their endless wars were a staple in his long list of political
excoriations.
After all, Trump began his meteoric rise during the
2016 Republican debates when he said to Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, brother of George W.,
that “obviously, the war in Iraq was a big, fat mistake, all right?”
“They lied,” he added, referring to the Bush
administration’s insistence that Iraq was hiding weapons of mass destruction.
“They said there were weapons of mass destruction,” Trump blasted. “There were
none, and they knew there were none.”
Presidential nominee Trump would later tell the 2016
Republican National Convention, “We must abandon the failed policy of
nation-building and regime change that Hillary Clinton pushed in Iraq, Libya,
Egypt and Syria.”
Yet today, this American president is knee-deep in a
seemingly endless regime change war with Iran over that country’s alleged and illusive weapons
of mass destruction. The conflict, which has even earned praise from his former nemesis Jeb Bush, could arguably
become even more disastrous than Iraq in the long term.
What made Trump go full neocon? Could it be that they are the only political faction
left that still embraces his foreign policy?
It might be. Because increasingly, conservatives who
aren’t reflexively hawkish are turning
away. And polls keep
showing that most Americans are not with him.
Three new surveys released this week now place Trump’s
approval rating in the mid-30s. A Reuters-Ipsos poll shows it at 36%. A Strength in
Numbers-Verasight poll has him at 35%. An AP-NORC survey says only 33% of Americans approve of Trump
right now.
These numbers are all going down, not up, from surveys last week.
This poor standing mirrors George W. Bush’s slide
during the Iraq war. “It was almost exactly this time 20 years ago that the
bottom began to fall out on George W. Bush’s approval ratings,” CNN analyst
Aaron Blake noted. “And as Bush’s numbers in most polls fell into the
30s for the first time in late winter and early spring, the culprit was clear:
the Iraq war.”
“History could be repeating itself with President
Donald Trump in 2026,” he wrote. “Just swap Iraq with Iran.”
Interestingly Trump appears to be more neoconservative.
While 2003 wasn’t the first time the U.S. attacked Iraq, the warhawks had been
begging for war with Iran for decades. Trump chose to fight a battle that his
predecessors rejected, and in so doing he gave Netanyahu’s Likud government,
which had been arguing for direct U.S.
intervention non-stop
since Trump won office in 2016, exactly what it wanted.
President Barack Obama’s former Secretary of State
John Kerry told CBS’s Stephen Colbert in an interview Tuesday, “I think it was about two weeks ago,
the New York Times reported that Netanyahu personally went into the Situation
Room and presented the case, why this was the right thing to do. It was
reported that he had attempted this with previous administrations.”
Colbert asked, “During the Obama administration, where
you're secretary of state, did he make the same case?” Kerry replied, “yes.”
Colbert then asked, “And what was the response at the
time?”
“No,” Kerry said emphatically.
“I mean, I was part of those conversations,” he added.
“I remember them well.”
Trump’s former debate opponent Jeb Bush is now pleased
with Trump’s decision to attack Iran, saying in late February, “This is their time to take
their country back.” Bush serves as chairman of United Against Nuclear Iran, a group that
lobbies for regime change in that country. Bush even made a special video praising the war in early March.
Independent journalist Glenn Greenwald said Thursday
that Trump seems to have morphed into the very thing he campaigned against: the
government officials who lied and scaremongered over “mushroom clouds” and
“yellowcake” uranium.
“Trump is now completely reliant for every answer on
the same exact claim used to sell the Iraq War: They're getting nukes; they'll
give them to terrorist groups; they'll take out our cities; be afraid; we have
to bear whatever cost to stop their WMD program,” Greenwald wrote.
A reporter asked Trump Thursday what might happen if
oil prices reach $200 per barrel.
Trump replied, “There is nothing worse than a nuclear weapon that
takes out one of your cities.” Vice President JD Vance said something
similar in March,
suggesting if we don’t fight Iran then terrorists could show up in American
cities with nuclear weapons in backpacks.
While America First pundits, politicians, and formerly
diehard Trump supporters like Tucker Carlson and ex- GOP Congresswoman Marjorie
Taylor Greene have become major critics of this president, today’s White House
is much friendlier to neoconservatives like talk host Mark Levin and GOP
Senator Lindsey Graham.
Carlson and Greene say they no longer recognize the
man Trump has become. Levin, Graham and other Israel-friendly hawks have encouraged this significant shift in foreign policy by this
president.
But how long do they stick around?
“It seems to me that Trump has three problems,”
Washington Examiner magazine Executive Editor Jim Antle told RS.
“One is that his new friends were reluctant adopters
of him at best and many were Never Trumpers in 2015 or 2016,” Antle said. “They
will turn on him much faster than the podcasters did. Second, and relatedly,
Trump is going to want to end the war before they are ready. They will
cheerlead his bombing, but not his diplomacy. Finally, their audiences are
primarily made up of people who are going to reliably turn out for Republicans
in the midterms regardless.”
“These are dead-enders, not persuadables or new voters
Trump brought into the coalition,” he added.
Curt Mills, Executive Director of the American
Conservative, also believed Trump’s neocon fan club might not be around for
long.
“George W. Bush once remarked on the subject of
legacy: ‘History? We don't know. We'll all be dead,” Mills said in an email.
“Increasingly, that seems to be how this president rolls, as well. He has
disappointed ideological true believers and made a pact with neoconservatives,
a group that will abandon him in posterity as swiftly as they opposed him
during his ascent.”
Regardless, with Iran, Donald Trump is definitely
losing support from the broader parts of his coalition. The war has sent him
fleeing into the arms of those conservatives who he never purported to have
anything in common with in the first place. It may be a fair-weather
arrangement for both sides, but for the rest of us it is dark days ahead as
long as these war pushers hold sway over the president’s foreign policy.