Trump appears poised to restart the Iran war

Tehran believes fresh attacks will come over next two days. Feeling emboldened, leaders there are ready with new targets for retaliation.

Trita Parsi

May 18, 2026

https://responsiblestatecraft.org/iran-trump-restart-war/?mc_cid=48ba3b9970&mc_eid=944feb3e1c

The Middle East is once again teetering on the brink as Trump appears poised to reignite war with Iran. Press reports indicate he will convene military advisers on Tuesday, though my understanding is that both the meeting and the decision are likely to come sooner. Over the past several hours, Trump has flooded Truth Social with a barrage of incendiary threats. While some of this may be theatrical brinkmanship designed to force Tehran into submission, sources in the Iranian capital tell me they expect the United States to resume hostilities within the next 48 hours.

We should first recognize that restarting the war amounts to an admission that Trump’s previous escalatory gambit — the blockade of the blockade — has failed. That, in turn, was itself an admission that the war had failed. Which was an admission that the threats of war in January had failed. As I have argued before on my Substack, this relentless search for an escalatory silver bullet capable of bringing Iran to its knees is not unique to Trump; it has become a defining pathology of American Iran policy for decades.

Although negotiators have made meaningful progress on several fronts, talks have thus far failed to produce an agreement, largely because of irreconcilable differences over Tehran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile. And as Washington has come to realize that the blockade is backfiring, a new and dangerous dynamic has emerged: both sides now believe another round of fighting will strengthen their hand in the negotiations that follow.

As I argued in numerous interviews in January, Trump dramatically underestimated Iran’s strength, while hard-liners in Tehran believed war would strengthen Iran’s leverage by exposing the illusion of Iranian weakness. In their view, the outcome of the conflict vindicated that assessment, leaving them increasingly confident — even emboldened — about what a second round of war could yield. I am told the new Supreme Leader belongs to this camp.

Moreover, just as Tehran believes Trump intends to prosecute the next war with far greater ferocity, Iranian planners are preparing a far more expansive and punishing retaliatory campaign, complete with new strategic objectives and targets.

First, Iranian officials increasingly describe the next war as an opportunity to inflict maximum strategic damage on the United Arab Emirates, citing Abu Dhabi’s active role in the previous conflict, its deepening and increasingly overt partnership with Israel, and its role in urging Trump to resume hostilities.

Tehran is likely to target American data centers in the UAE, a move that serves multiple purposes. Iranian officials argue that these American technology firms have already become participants in the conflict through their support for the Pentagon. At the same time, Tehran sees an opportunity to cripple the UAE’s ambitions to become a global artificial intelligence hub — and, in doing so, potentially undermine Washington’s AI competition with China.

This points to a second defining feature of Iran’s strategy in a future war. Tehran believes Trump and his family hold financial stakes in many of these same technology ventures. Targeting Trump’s personal business interests is a lever Iran conspicuously avoided pulling during the first conflict but now appears increasingly willing to use. The logic is straightforward: Trump may tolerate damage to American strategic interests, but he is acutely sensitive to threats against his own financial empire. Raise the personal cost to Trump himself, the reasoning goes, and he may prove more willing to adopt a realistic negotiating position.

Third, Tehran is likely to show far less restraint if evidence emerges that other Gulf Cooperation Council states permit the United States or Israel to use their territory or airspace in a renewed conflict. The result would be broader and far more perilous horizontal escalation, with potentially catastrophic consequences for the global economy should critical energy infrastructure come under attack.

Fourth, the Red Sea is now in play. That would dramatically widen the geographic scope of the conflict while placing even greater upward pressure on already volatile oil prices.

Finally, Tehran is increasingly examining the possibility of severing the major submarine fiber-optic cable networks running beneath the Persian Gulf — arteries through which most GCC internet traffic flows, including billions of dollars in financial transactions. Iranian officials increasingly view this as a potential second Strait of Hormuz: a powerful new point of leverage capable of disrupting the global economy at enormous scale.

Renewed war is not inevitable. But when both sides convince themselves that another round of fighting will strengthen their negotiating position, the gravitational pull toward conflict becomes dangerously strong — however irrational the logic may ultimately be.

‘Some hide their crosses’: Jerusalem nun attack highlights Israel’s growing anti-Christian problem

When a foreign nun was the victim of violent physical assault in Jerusalem last month, local activists and clergy say they were shocked but not surprised. In the past few years, anti-Christian incidents have surged in Israel – illustrating how a small minority of insular and mainly ultra-religious nationalist or ultra-Orthodox Jews are becoming increasingly emboldened to act out their anger and hate.

By:

Louise NORDSTROM

Issued on: 15/05/2026

https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260515-some-hide-their-crosses-jerusalem-nun-attack-highlights-israel-growing-anti-christian-problem

On Wednesday evening, Yisca Harani spent several hours at a local police station.

“I got a report about a ‘spitter’,” the Jewish activist said over a patchy phone line from Jerusalem, explaining that a Christian monk had been the latest target of such humiliation.

Harani, who heads the Religious Freedom Data Center (RFDC) – an Israeli NGO that documents anti-Christian incidents and help victims report them to authorities – said there are so many cases now that she and her roughly 100 volunteers are kept busy “24/7”.

“The most common is spitting,” she said. “But it can also be graffiti on [Christian] signs with crosses on them, vandalism or different forms of harassment.”

The perpetrators, she said, belong to a very tiny part of Israel’s population of 10 million – “most Jews would never do this” – and mainly identify as ultra-Orthodox, Shas-style Sephardis or nationalist religious Jews.

“They all wear kippah [traditional Jewish skullcaps]. I’ve not seen one secular Jew misbehave toward Christians.”

In 2024, her organisation recorded 107 incidents. Last year, the number jumped to 181.

“There isn’t a month that goes by without at least ten incidents reported,” she said, but noted that in reality, the numbers are likely much higher. This is in part because victims either do not know how to report, or do not want to “make a fuss” over less serious offences like spitting.

Why the spitting?

The question of spitting takes us centuries back through the history of Jewish-Christian relations, throughout which Jews, as a minority, suffered immensely at the hands of a Christian majority – from anti-Semitism and persecution to attempts at extermination.

In the 11^th century, Jews (then being persecuted during the Crusades) were accused of spitting at the cross in an act of religious contempt, Rabbi Alon Goshen-Gottstein explained in a Times of Israel blog post. Some Jewish communities then adopted this gesture to show resistance and defiance. Over time, “the spitting Jew” became a negative stereotype for Jews.

When the state of Israel was created in 1948, Jews became a majority group for the first time, with Christians in the minority, and the spitting became even more symbolic.

Goshen-Gottstein wrote that the problem is that some insular Jewish communities have not followed modern developments in the Christian world, and do not know that many churches have since revised their theologies, legitimised Judaism, issued apologies and are even fighting anti-Semitism.

“The spitters and attackers are, of course, clueless,” Goshen-Gottstein said.

Far-right politician Itamar Ben-Gvir added fuel to the fire in 2023, when he, as Israel’s sitting national security minister, told Army Radio that spitting at Christians was not a crime, and that not everything “justifies an arrest”.

‘Think twice about going out’

The brutal physical assault of a French Dominican nun in East Jerusalem on April 28, however, sent new shock waves throughout the Christian community. In CCTV footage capturing the attack, an Orthodox man is seen running up behind a Christian nun, shoving her to the ground, and returning to kick her once before bystanders intervene.

“This is the most extreme case we’ve seen. During the three years since I founded RFDC, there may have been three or four physical interactions,” Harani said, but stressed that none of them had been this violent.

Since then, her NGO has been called upon to “escort” Christians through Jerusalem. While accompanying the faithful, the RFDC volunteers keep their phone cameras open at all times, ready to film any potential assaults they may be targeted by.

On Wednesday, the Knesset held a special committee session on the attack against the nun and the way Christians are being treated. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu firmly condemned the incident, but critics say the meeting was mainly called because the footage went viral, embarrassing the Israeli government on the international stage.

Several of the Christian representatives present at the hearing recounted routine harassment on the streets of Jerusalem’s Old City, the Haaretz newspaper reported, and cited incidents in which Israeli security forces had prevented devotees access to prayer sites or in which Christians had been the victims of stone-throwing or kicking.

"I call on the Israeli government to call these acts by their name: hate crimes," Father Aghan Gogchian, the chancellor of the Armenian Patriarchate, said.

Neighbours staging protests

According to the Central Bureau of Statistics, some 185,000 Christians were registered in Israel at the end of 2025, accounting for about 1.9 percent of the population. Most of these are Arab Christians – a minority that is often overlooked, rarely talked about and whose Arabic heritage makes them especially vulnerable in a Jewish state like Israel.

Hana Bendcowsky, program director of the Jerusalem Center for Jewish-Christian Relations at the interreligious Rossing Center, said there had been incidents where local demonstrations had been staged in front of Arab Christian homes because their Jewish neighbours did not want them living there.

“Maybe because they are Christian, maybe because they are Arabs. It is not clear.”

Another group that is regularly targeted are those who wear visible Christian symbols or religious clothing, such as pilgrims, nuns and monks.

 “Every priest you talk to will tell you that spitting is almost a daily experience,” Bendcowsky said.

Some, especially after the attack on the nun, have therefore become more careful in showing their religious affiliations.

“They hide their crosses in their pockets and so on, or avoid wearing their habits when they go to certain places.”

Father David Neuhaus SJ, who has lived in Jerusalem for almost five decades and for several years served as superior of the Jesuit community at the Pontifical Biblical Institute, said that after the assault on the nun “there are people who think twice before going out unless it is absolutely necessary”.

Although he refuses to give in to the fear himself, he said: “There is now an awareness that you need to look around you, think about where you are going, think about how you dress. There is a feeling that at any moment your life could suddenly take a turn for the worse.”

‘To be Israeli is to be Jewish’

All three interviewees FRANCE 24 spoke to said the intolerance against non-Jews in Israel – whether Christians, Muslims or others – has spiked in recent years, fuelled by new government policies, war, and of course, the October 7, 2023 terror attacks.

Father Neuhaus said it did not help that Israel has been an extremely militarised state from the start and has been “built on settler colonialism”.

“We’re a very violent society,” he said. “Take a bus, take a train, walk down the street – everyone is armed. That already is an incredible violence.”

Harani, of RFDC, said the 2018 “Nation-State Law” marked the real first turn for the worse in Israel’s religious intolerance.

“This law is the epitome of this whole psychosis: that to be Israeli is to be Jewish – religiously and nationalistically.”

The law defined Israel as national home of the Jewish people and encouraged the use of Jewish symbols in Israeli society. Critics say this quickly formed a climate of religious nationalism and contributed to religious minorities feeling increasingly marginalised.

Since then, Harani said Netanyahu’s government shows “absolute disregard for certain behaviours in the radical sector. Their behavior is tolerated and therefore gives them the green light. It’s passive encouragement.”

And, she said, “they [the perpetrators] are becoming more and more audacious”.

Father Neuhaus agreed. “When lower-level incidents like spitting are ignored, the message is that violence is OK.”

The trauma, anger and frustration linked to the October 7 attacks led some insular Jewish groups to start “dehumanising the other”, Bendcowsky said. She pointed particularly to the uptick in settler violence against Palestinians in the occupied West Bank. She noted that many of them are either in denial of, or have no knowledge of, the death and pain Israel has brought to civilians in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran.

“So what we see with Christians is just one symptom of the general atmosphere,” she said.

However terrible the aggression on the nun might have been, Harani said it did serve at least one meaningful purpose: shining a light on the Israeli government’s treatment of Christians.  

“I’m in almost daily contact with the nun and visited her yesterday,” Harani said. “I told her: ‘In a way, you were chosen to be the stop sign for what is happening’.”

Full list of Israel's ceasefire violations in Gaza, seven months on

From deadly strikes and expanding no-go zones to aid restrictions and border closures, Israel has repeatedly breached the US-backed truce while deepening the enclave's humanitarian crisis

By Mera Aladam

Published date: 15 May 2026 

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/seven-months-gaza-ceasefire-israeli-violations-ongoing

More than seven months have passed since a US-mediated ceasefire was announced with the stated aim of ending Israel's two-year genocide in Gaza.

Yet Israel has continued to carry out near-daily strikes and violations of the agreement, albeit at a lower intensity than before the truce.

The humanitarian crisis caused by the war has also persisted, with Israel maintaining a tight siege on the Palestinian enclave.

The Israeli military has justified some of its violations by accusing Palestinian factions of breaching the ceasefire.

However, many of those killed, displaced or arbitrarily detained over the past seven months have been civilians, including children.

With the first phase of the agreement still not fully implemented by Israel, the US has so far failed to advance talks towards the next stage, which was meant to include the disarmament of Palestinian armed groups, the deployment of international stabilisation forces, reconstruction in the strip and a full Israeli withdrawal.

The lack of progress has raised fresh doubts over the future of the fragile ceasefire, as Israel continues to mass forces near Gaza and threatens a renewed assault on the strip.

Middle East Eye breaks down the main Israeli breaches of the ceasefire so far.

Attacks

The Gaza government media office says it documented at least 2,400 Israeli violations in the first six months of the ceasefire between 10 October 2025 and 10 April 2026, with dozens more recorded since.

Those included 1,109 air strikes and other shelling attacks, alongside 921 shootings targeting civilians.

The attacks killed at least 857 Palestinians and wounded 2,486 as of 14 May, according to the Palestinian health ministry.

At least 229 of those killed were children, according to Unicef.

The media office also said Israeli forces had arbitrarily detained at least 50 people during the same period.

Reported violations ranged from attacks on civilian gatherings and displacement camps to strikes targeting police officers, journalists and aid workers.

Israeli naval forces have also repeatedly opened fire on fishermen and Palestinians near the coast, arresting several others.

In one incident last month, Israeli gunboats shot a woman dead off the northwestern coast of Gaza. 

Overall, Israeli forces have killed at least 72,700 people since the genocide began in October 2023. Thousands more are missing and presumed dead under the rubble.

Demolitions and expanding Yellow Zone

The October ceasefire agreement stipulated that the "battle lines" in place at the time of the deal would remain frozen until later phases were implemented.

That provision paved the way for the creation of the so-called "Yellow Line" - a unilateral Israeli demarcation designating vast areas of Gaza as no-go zones and barring Palestinians from accessing large parts of their land.

At the time the deal was signed, Israeli forces controlled around 53 percent of the enclave across northern, southern and eastern Gaza. 

Under the terms of the agreement, subsequent phases were meant to include a gradual Israeli withdrawal from the entire Gaza Strip.

Since then, however, the Israeli military has expanded the Yellow Line, effectively bringing around 64 percent of Gaza under its control and forcing Palestinians into less than half of the territory's land area.

Israeli forces have also carried out near-daily home demolitions, in another breach of the ceasefire.

Although most demolitions have taken place beyond the Yellow Line, others have been recorded inside the Palestinian-controlled areas.

An analysis by The New York Times in January revealed that Israel has demolished over 2,500 buildings in the first three months of the agreement.

Ongoing siege  

Under the agreement, Israel was required to ease restrictions on aid deliveries and allow up to 600 trucks a day carrying food, fuel, medical supplies, shelter materials and commercial goods into Gaza.

However, UN data shows those commitments have not been met, with rights groups warning that continued restrictions have prolonged the humanitarian crisis and severely limited relief operations. 

According to the Gaza government media office, just over 4,500 aid trucks had entered the enclave by the end of April - only 25 percent of the 18,000 trucks stipulated under the agreement.

That amounts to a daily average of just over 200 trucks, far below the agreed threshold.

The limited aid allowed in has also excluded much-needed shelter materials such as tents and mobile homes, as well as essential medicines, medical equipment and fuel.

The ongoing restrictions have fuelled a renewed wave of food scarcity in recent months, with many residents fearing a return to famine conditions, which were officially declared in Gaza in August following Israel's siege.

Doctors and civil defence teams say shortages of fuel and medical supplies have left them unable to provide adequate healthcare or carry out rescue operations effectively.

Border closure and travel restrictions

Under the agreement, Israeli forces were meant to withdraw from the Rafah crossing with Egypt in southern Gaza and allow the free movement of people.

With thousands wounded and in urgent need of medical treatment abroad, reopening the crossing was expected to ease suffering for many Palestinians.

However, Israel kept the crossing closed for nearly four months after the agreement was signed. 

In February, it began allowing no more than 50 Palestinians a day to enter Gaza from Egypt, while limiting departures from the enclave to around 150 people daily.

Even then, Israel has not consistently adhered to those quotas, at times blocking approved travellers and shutting the crossing for prolonged periods, including during the launch of the war on Iran in late February.

The Gaza government media office said that between 2 February and 30 April, only 1,567 people crossed through Rafah out of the 6,000 stipulated under the agreement - a compliance rate of just 26 percent.

According to the Palestinian health ministry, the restrictions have contributed to the deaths of up to 10 Palestinians a day who are unable to access treatment abroad.

Iranian FM says 'no trust' in talks with US, declares Hormuz open to all nations 'except those waging war' on Tehran

Abbas Araghchi said ‘contradictory messages’ from Washington have hardened Tehran’s position

News Desk

MAY 15, 2026

https://thecradle.co/articles/iranian-fm-says-no-trust-in-talks-with-us-declares-hormuz-open-to-all-nations-except-those-waging-war-on-tehran

On 15 May, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the Strait of Hormuz remains open to vessels except those “at war” with Tehran and stressed that Iran has “no trust” in the US regarding negotiations.

Speaking to reporters in New Delhi during a BRICS foreign ministers meeting, Araghchi said Tehran would only negotiate with Washington if it proved “serious.” 

He described the situation in the Strait of Hormuz as “very complicated,” as both the US and Iran enforce competing restrictions on maritime traffic, with each side allowing or blocking vessels based on their ties to the opposing side. 

Pakistani-mediated talks have stalled after Tehran and Washington rejected each other’s latest proposals, with Araghchi saying “contradictory messages” from the US have made the process more difficult.

The Iranian foreign minister said Tehran is working to preserve the ceasefire “to give diplomacy a chance,” while remaining ready to resume fighting if attacked, identifying Iran’s nuclear program and authority over Hormuz as central points of contention in the talks.

Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump met in Beijing on 14 May, where both leaders called for more stable US–China ties and discussed Taiwan, trade, and the situation in West Asia.

Both sides agreed that the Strait of Hormuz should remain open for energy flows, as the waterway remains closed to Washington and Tel Aviv after their war on Iran.

Araghchi responded by welcoming the diplomatic push from Beijing, emphasizing their importance as a strategic partner, adding, “we know that the Chinese have good intentions.”

The Iranian foreign minister had previously emphasized in a post on X that “As far as we are concerned, the Strait of Hormuz is open for all commercial vessels,” and that “We have not made any obstacles. It is Americans who have made a blockade.” 

The US-Israeli war on Iran has brought shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to a near halt, even as Iran continues to allow some friendly countries to transit, including China, India, Russia, Iraq, and Pakistan.

Passage is conditional on coordination with Iranian naval forces, adherence to designated corridors, and the use of non-dollar currencies such as the Chinese yuan. 

Israeli attacks kill 200 children in Lebanon since March 2: UNICEF

UN agency says ongoing Israeli attacks wounded more than 800 others, warning that hundreds of thousands of children are suffering severe psychological trauma

Amer Solyman

14 May 2026

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/israeli-attacks-kill-200-children-in-lebanon-since-march-2-unicef/3937627

At least 200 children have been killed in Lebanon as a result of ongoing Israeli attacks on the country since March 2, UNICEF said Thursday.

“Children in Lebanon continue to be at the sharp end of ongoing violence, displacement and exposure to traumatic events,” the UN organization said in a statement.

UNICEF said at least 59 children were killed or injured in Lebanon during the past week despite a ceasefire agreement that has been in effect since April 17.

According to the organization, 23 children have been killed and 93 others injured since April 17, describing the figures as “a stark reminder of the ongoing risks children continue to face.”

The agency said the overall toll among children since March 2 has reached 200 killed and 806 injured, equivalent to nearly 14 children killed or wounded every day.

“Children are being killed and injured when they should be returning to classrooms, playing with friends, and recovering from months of fear and upheaval,” the statement said.

UNICEF added that beyond the direct impact of bombs and airstrikes, an estimated 770,000 children are experiencing “heightened distress” from repeated exposure to violence, loss and displacement.

It warned that the lack of mental health and psychosocial support services within safe and stable environments could expose those children to the “serious risk of developing chronic or lifelong mental health issues.”

“Nearly a month ago, an agreement was reached to silence the weapons and stop the violence. Reality is proving to be very different. Continued attacks are killing and injuring children, deepening their exposure to trauma and leaving devastating consequences that could last a lifetime,” said Edouard Beigbeder, UNICEF Regional Director for the Middle East and North Africa.

The agency called on all parties to protect children, comply with international humanitarian law and take all necessary measures to ensure the continuation of the ceasefire.

Since March 2, Israeli attacks in Lebanon have killed more than 2,896 people, injured over 8,824, and displaced more than 1.6 million, about one-fifth of the country’s population, according to Lebanese officials.

The Israeli army continues daily strikes in Lebanon and exchanges of fire with Hezbollah despite a ceasefire that was announced on April 17 and later extended until May 17.

*Writing by Mohammad Sio in Istanbul

The EU has finally agreed to sanction violent Israeli settlers, but critics say the measures do not go nearly far enough

The EU just sanctioned violent Israeli settlers and settler groups, but critics call it a “smokescreen” meant to delay imposing sanctions on Israel where it hurts: its longstanding economic relationship with Europe.

By Qassam Muaddi  May 13, 2026

https://mondoweiss.net/2026/05/the-eu-has-finally-agreed-to-sanction-violent-israeli-settlers-but-critics-say-the-measures-do-not-go-nearly-far-enough/

Israeli settler groups committing violence against Palestinians in the West Bank could now be sanctioned by the European Union, after 27 foreign ministers of EU countries greenlit imposing sanctions on violent settlers and settler groups on Monday. The ministers also decided to sanction Hamas leaders. The decision came at a meeting of EU foreign ministers in Brussels, which discussed major Middle East political portfolios.

The decision was announced by the EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, who announced on X that it was “high time for us to move from deadlock to delivery,” adding that “extremisms and violence carry consequences.” French FM Jean Noël Barrot said that the EU decided to sanction groups and leaders of Israeli settlers responsible for “serious and intolerable acts that must cease without delay.”

In Israel, the decision was received with outrage from the entire political establishment. Israel’s Foreign Minister, Gideon Saar, called the decision “arbitrary and political,” denouncing what he described as an “outrageous comparison” between Israeli settlers and Hamas members. Israel’s hardline National Security Minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, who himself comes from the violent settler movement, called the EU “antisemitic.” Ben-Gvir also called upon the government to approve the bill presented by his own party to ban banks in Israel from implementing the sanctions.

Since October 2023, Israeli settler groups have carried out up to 3,000 attacks against Palestinians in the West Bank, according to the UN. These attacks have expelled at least 28 Palestinian rural communities, including 12,000 Palestinians out of their homes, according to the al-Baidar Organization for the Defense of Bedouin Rights in Palestine.

Legal and technical work is yet to be done for the sanctions themselves to go into effect. The sanctions will include three individual settlers and four settler groups, although the specific names haven’t been yet disclosed. In the meantime, Europe continues to hold partnership agreements with Israel, including in military and academic cooperation.

But why is the EU sanctioning settler groups now? For European Palestine solidarity activists and international law experts, the sanctioning of individual settlers is a way for Israel to avoid more serious sanctions against the state, which is the ultimate enabler of settler violence, which takes place as part of a broader state policy of annexation.

Why now?

The last time European Foreign Ministers came close to agreeing on sanctions against settlers was in July 2024, after the Biden administration and the UK sanctioned four Israelis involved in violence against Palestinians in February of that year. 

Other countries followed suit. France imposed sanctions on 28 Israelis involved in settler violence, as well as other non-European countries like Australia, Canada, and Japan. In April 2024, the EU itself imposed sanctions on the four settlers sanctioned by Biden and the UK.

But ever since, the EU has been unable to produce a consensus over sanctioning any part of the Israeli system, which needs the consent of all 27 member states. The former Hungarian far-right government of Viktor Orban, which was allied with Israel, had voted to break the consensus on multiple occasions. That changed last month, when Orban’s Fidesz party lost Hungary’s elections, bringing the country’s longstanding opposition to European sanctions to an end.

But sanctioning settlers is only a part of the political debate in Europe over the relationship with Israel. The bigger story is whether the EU will consider reviewing its longstanding economic relationship with Israel. The EU remains Israel’s most important trade partner, surpassing the U.S. and China, with exchange between both Israel and the EU reaching $42.6 billion in 2024.

These relations date back to the 1995 “association agreement” signed by Israel and the EU, which established a free trade area and granted Israel preferential access to the EU market, entering into force in 2000. During the past two years, multiple voices have demanded that the agreement be reconsidered in light of the Gaza genocide, yet several EU countries have formed a bloc opposing the move, including Germany, Italy, the Czech Republic, Austria, and Hungary. Meanwhile, Spain, Belgium, Slovenia, Ireland, and the Netherlands separately imposed national bans on Israeli imports originating from West Bank settlements.  

For Brussels-based Palestinian international law attorney Lama Nazeeh, the sanctions announced on Monday are little more than “cosmetic.” In recent years, pressure from human rights groups has demanded more substantial action from the EU, particularly in reviewing the economic agreements between Europe and Israel, Nazeeh told Mondoweiss.

Such a reconsideration of the nature of the economic relationship with Israel, “would constitute a real form of pressure,” she said, whereas “sanctioning three or four individuals will not stop the violent campaign to expel Palestinians in the West Bank, with the support of the Israeli government.” 

Nazeeh added that the EU has in the past taken much more decisive action in imposing sanctions on countries that violate international norms, pointing to European sanctions against Russia over its war in Ukraine.

For Nazeeh, the EU “is not experiencing a shift in policy, but rather catching up with reality.” That reality is one in which Israel no longer enjoys unconditional impunity or indifference in the court of public opinion.

According to Mahmooud Nawajaa, coordinator of Palestine’s Boycott National Committee, “the recent sanctions are an attempt by European governments to escape their real responsibility for Israel’s violations.”

Nawajaa told Mondoweiss that “the EU not only continues to provide Israel with special commercial status, and with military, academic, and cultural cover as it continues to displace Palestinians, but it also gives a pass to its Prime Minister, who is wanted by international judicial bodies for war crimes.” For Nawajaa, the announced sanctions “can’t stop settlers’ violence, which is much more structural and systematic,” and won’t be curbed by sanctioning four or five individuals.

However, Nawajaa recognized that the announcement of sanctions comes as “a response to citizen pressure on European governments, which has been mounting in the past two years.” Nawajaa said that while the sanctions don’t reflect a real shift in European politics, “they indicate that grassroots mobilization and organized solidarity with Palestine can force governments to take action.”

For Anne Tuallion, a French Palestine solidarity activist, Monday’s sanctions constituted “the bare minimum of the bare minimum,” and that the sanctioning of individual settlers was “a smokescreen to further delay real action towards the Israeli state as such, while Palestinians continue to have their lands stolen, their lives threatened, and their rights denied.”

Since 2023, settler attacks have practically ended all Palestinian presence in the eastern slopes of the West Bank and much of the Jordan Valley, grabbing most farmland from dozens of Palestinian towns and villages and severely impacting the agricultural sector. Since the beginning of 2026, settler attacks have killed at least 10 Palestinians in the West Bank.

Trump faces slew of ‘bad options’ on Iran as diplomacy falters

Trump faces mounting pressure amid stalled Iran peace talks as domestic discontent grows and geopolitical stakes rise.

By Virginia Pietromarchi

Published On 13 May 2026

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/13/trump-faces-slew-of-bad-options-on-iran-as-diplomacy-falters

Optimism surrounding another set of peace proposals aimed at shaping a deal between Iran and the United States quickly faded this week as the two sides appeared to instead pull further apart, digging in and insisting that the other compromise for negotiations to resume.

US President Donald Trump has said that the already fragile ceasefire with Iran, in place since April 8, is now on “life support”, and members of his administration have increasingly hinted that the US could resume fighting.

But analysts say for all of Trump’s bluster on Truth Social, his preferred megaphone, the US president is now trapped between escalation and concession, with the region increasingly stuck in a grey zone of neither peace nor war.

A resumption of hostilities remains possible, but the war is unpopular among Americans and could weigh heavily on Republicans ahead of crucial midterm elections. Yet extricating the US from the conflict and securing a deal may require Trump to concede ground to Tehran – either on its nuclear programme or over Iran’s role in the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important oil transit chokepoint through which roughly a fifth of global energy exports passes.

“The White House is left with a set of bad options,” said Allison Minor, a former official at the US State Department and National Security Council, and currently a director at the Atlantic Council’s Project for Middle East Integration.

Tehran wants an end to the war on all fronts, including Lebanon; it wants the first stage of negotiations to focus on ending hostilities before moving to a second step to discuss its nuclear programme and support for proxy groups. It rejects the dismantling of its nuclear programme and wants sanctions to be lifted and the recognition of its influence over the key waterway. Trump has called its latest proposal — with these demands — “garbage”.

So, what options does he have?

On Sunday, the US president hinted that more military moves may be needed, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu suggested the war was not over. Iran’s enriched uranium remains in the country — even though it is likely buried under rubble from US and Israeli bombings last June. Iran’s enrichment sites have not been dismantled. And Tehran still retains its proxy networks and ballistic missile arsenal, Netanyahu said in a CBS interview. “There is work to be done,” Trump said.

But while the US and Israel could well resume attacks on Iran, the prospects of a protracted conflict with no end in sight could translate into a major political liability for Trump, said Ian Lesser, a distinguished fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States.

“Things don’t evolve the way either side might assume,” he said, noting that the Iranian leadership has already proven to be more resilient and durable — with a higher threshold for physical and economic pain — than the US administration had expected.

To add to that, renewed fighting would affect US abilities to respond to threats elsewhere, including in the Indo-Pacific region, Lesser said, amid mounting concerns over depleted US ammunition stockpiles after five weeks of bombing Iran. A report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies warned that the conflict had already reduced Washington’s readiness for other potential confrontations, particularly with China.

Iran has already shown what would happen should the US and Israel resume bombing it, with Gulf allies bearing the brunt of it. After Trump announced “Project Freedom” – an initiative to force the opening of the narrow waterway to allow stranded vessels to transit – Iran responded with a barrage of missiles and drones targeting the United Arab Emirates. US officials argued that the attacks were not enough to be considered a breach of the fragile ceasefire agreed upon in early April – a signal of the Trump administration’s lack of appetite to pick up fighting again, observers said. Instead, the US president suspended the Hormuz initiative within 24 hours, even though a naval blockade of vessels linked to Iran seeking passage through the strait remains in place.

Pressure is mounting at home, too. The latest Reuters/Ipsos survey published on Tuesday suggests two-thirds of Americans polled do not think that Trump has given a clear rationale for why the US waged this war. And the same percentage is feeling the financial strain from the war as gas, oil and fertiliser prices are rising. Trump’s approval rating of 36 percent remains far lower than what it was — 47 percent — last year, ahead of mid-term elections in November that could determine whether the Republican Party retains control of Congress.

While the US president has often appeared relatively insensitive to popular opinion in Washington, he cares about market fluctuations, energy prices and inflation and “understands that the status quo can’t be protected indefinitely,” said Minor of the Atlantic Council. “He will find creative framing to present some agreement as a victory even if he will have to concede something” to Iran, she added.

Trump, she said, is unlikely to be able to convince Iran to both strike a deal that limits its nuclear programme and give up control over the Strait of Hormuz. “He will be forced to prioritise one over the other and he will prioritise the nuclear deal,” Minor said.

Meanwhile, Iran’s posture on the negotiations has hardened. Iran’s ceasefire proposals and defiant position reflect a leadership that has emerged from the conflict confident that it holds the upper hand and is unlikely to bow to American pressure, says Dennis Citrinowicz, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies.

From Tehran’s perspective, the war and the economic pressure campaign have failed to force strategic concessions. On the contrary, Citrinowicz said, Iran appears to view the crisis as an opportunity to expand its leverage and redefine deterrence vis-a-vis Washington. Still, Iran’s confidence masks significant vulnerabilities, including mounting economic strain and damage to parts of its military infrastructure.

“The Iranian response leaves Trump with very few viable options, and all of them range from bad to worse: either accepting terms that are politically impossible in Washington, or escalating further in ways that could trigger a broader regional confrontation without actually changing Tehran’s core positions,” he said on X.