Expanding the Abraham Accords Would Help Netanyahu, Not America
The agreements were flawed from the start.
Jun 4, 2026
Whether President Donald Trump believed his
persistently fallacious claims about the Iran War, or simply expected his
supporters to believe them, is unclear. In any case, most Americans recognize
that his campaign—illegal aggression that misfired badly, failing to break the
Tehran regime while disrupting global energy markets and destabilizing the
Middle East—has been a disaster.
Indeed, Iran proved what many had long suspected, that
it could block the Strait of Hormuz and thereby hold its U.S.-backed neighbors
and much of the industrialized world hostage. The president’s maximalist
demands exceed his minimalist achievements, frustrating his attempt to
negotiate an end to the conflict. Unhelpful is his choice of chief negotiators,
Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, who are not only beholden to Israel, but also
ignorant of Iran, nuclear issues, and diplomacy. Thus, despite Trump’s repeated
claims that Tehran’s surrender is near, the conflict, and resulting economic
damage, continue.
Yet rather than drop his demand that the new, more
nationalistic and hardline Iranian leadership welcome him as a de facto conqueror,
Trump has continued to issue maximalist demands, effectively sustaining the
conflict. Last week he expanded his ambitions even further, suggesting that he
would make peace only if a gaggle of Muslim states recognized Israel. “If they
don’t sign to join Abraham Accords, I’m not sure we should make the deal,” he
said. In addition to the Gulf kingdoms, which he had long pressured to
legitimize Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s extremist government, he
named Pakistan, Egypt, Jordan, and Turkey (even though the latter three already
recognize Israel). Nothing was expected of Israel, which would continue to
receive U.S. arms and money to occupy Palestinian lands and kill Palestinian
and other Arab civilians.
His latest expostulations were not well received.
He believes that “those countries owe it to us,” but they feel
very differently. Jon Alterman of the Center for Strategic and International
Studies argued that the Gulf states are disappointed in Washington
and especially the administration: “While they’re careful not to say it
explicitly, they feel the United States was very motivated to protect Israel
and not very motivated to protect them.” Apparently, they only just noticed
what has long been obvious. To some of them, Israel’s murderous campaign to
dominate the region looks at least as dangerous as Iran’s ambitions.
In fact, the so-called Abraham Accords, long touted as
a major achievement from Trump’s first term, are a pious fraud. Though depicted
as a kind of peace deal, they have nothing to do with peace, since none of the
participants—so far Bahrain, Kazakhstan, Morocco, and the United Arab Emirates
(Sudan signed on but fell into civil war before ratifying the agreement)—have
been at war with Israel.
Nor has the lack of Israeli embassies across the
Persian Gulf and North Africa prevented any nation from engaging in
back-channel security cooperation. To the contrary, fear of Iran proved to be a
powerful glue, linking nations publicly at odds. Several Arab states, including
Saudi Arabia, which has long been expected to join, have collaborated
informally with Israel on the basis of a shared antagonism to the Islamic
Republic. Kuwait and Qatar have also not been on the verge of conflict with
Israel. Ironically, forcing relations into the open would likely increase
domestic public opposition to Israeli ties within these Arab countries, given
the Netanyahu government’s recent depredations.
Thus, Trump’s purposes were not peace, but something
much more sinister. The first was to effectively force Arab states to drop
their commitment to a Palestinian state. In 2002, members of the Arab
League adopted the Arab Peace Initiative. Proposed by Riyadh, the measure offered recognition
to Israel in exchange for Israeli withdrawal from the West Bank and Gaza. The
Abraham Accords require the former while dropping the latter demand, leaving
Palestinians akin to Helots in ancient Sparta.
Of course, professed concern by Arab elites over
Palestinians living under a violent and brutal occupation is often pro
forma. However, public opinion forces even the most cynical authoritarians
in such nations to act as if they care about the victims of Israel’s
increasingly repressive policy. For instance, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince
Mohammed bin Salman, who not only murders but dismembers his critics, explained
that 95 percent of his people opposed accepting Israel. Trump expects Riyadh
and other states to abandon even the pretense that Palestinians are human
beings who deserve the same respect as others.
Moreover, expanding the Abraham Accords would act as a
Hail Mary political pass to Netanyahu, who faces a difficult reelection
campaign. It would both offer a dramatic success to the Israeli prime minister
and act as a de facto endorsement by the American president. Indeed, Trump
appears to believe his ability to shift votes is as great in Israel as in U.S.
primary contests.
Even Arab governments that were willing to covertly
cooperate with Israel in the past are reluctant to do so today, let alone
publicly embrace the radical and violent ethno-religious coalition that
controls Israel. The Netanyahu government is ostentatiously seeking regional
hegemony, devastating Gaza, the West Bank, and Lebanon, striking Hamas figures
in Qatar, an American ally, and wrecking Iran. Joining the Abraham Accords
would be seen as an endorsement of such activities or, even worse, submission to
Israel.
The only good news is that Trump was bluffing. Despite
his dictatorial tone, he apparently has moved on, presumably realizing that
none of the governments will comply. They see little benefit in risking public
unrest to fulfill Trump’s fantasies. Indeed, prolonging the war to pressure
disparate Muslim states to embrace Israel could risk the survival of the Gulf
states, which would almost certainly find their energy facilities and other
civilian operations, such as desalination plants, under fire by Iran. Moreover,
continued international instability and higher energy prices would fuel
antagonism toward the administration. Despite his claim to be indifferent to
the upcoming midterm elections, Trump presumably is more concerned about his
future than that of Netanyahu.
Nevertheless, merely raising the issue increased
uncertainty about his intentions, thereby undermining the administration’s
efforts to end the war. His bizarre demand further erodes confidence in
Washington, and especially the White House. Expanding the Abraham Accords
provides no meaningful benefit to America. Instead of working to enhance
Netanyahu’s prestige, Trump should focus on ending his disastrous war on Iran.
Any America First policy should begin with disengaging politically and
especially militarily from the Middle East.