Iran's Strategic Error

The member countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council are one step away from entering into military conflict with Iran due to Iran's continued attacks on their transportation, communications, and tourism infrastructure, and now on their refineries and gas processing facilities, such as Ras Laffan in Qatar.

Iran should have kept the Sunni countries of the region neutral in the conflict with the United States and Israel, but all indications are that several internal and external factors have led what remains of the Iranian leadership (given that Israel has eliminated most of Iran's top decision-makers and strategists) to commit this strategic error.

It appears that Iran's strategy of setting the entire Middle East ablaze, thereby disrupting the oil, gas, and fertilizer supplies leaving the region primarily for Asia, Europe, and Africa, weighed far more heavily than avoiding conflict with their Sunni neighbors in the Gulf Cooperation Council, and even with predominantly Shiite Iraq, which has also been targeted by Iranian attacks.

While the Iranian leadership maintains that these attacks are directed against US bases or facilities serving the United States, the reality is that they have damaged vital infrastructure for the Gulf Cooperation Council countries and have led to the closure of much of the trade and tourism in important business centers such as Dubai and Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates, and Doha in Qatar.

Israel's elimination of Iran's key decision-makers has also led to the dispersed command and control centers of the Iranian armed forces and Revolutionary Guards making decisions independently (part of Iran's strategy). This has resulted in indiscriminate attacks across the region, without considering the reactions of the affected countries' governments or the repercussions for the already highly unfavorable balance of power for Iran in the region.

Iran's civilian leadership, including Foreign Minister Aragchi, insists they do not want conflict with the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, but their statements are consistently overtaken by Iran's ongoing attacks on its neighbors, although that these countries had nothing to do with the unjustified and unlawful aggression perpetrated by Israel and the United States against Iran.

Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud (Saudi Foreign Minister), speaking to reporters, reiterated that his country reserves the right to respond to Iranian attacks and that their patience with “Iranian aggression” is not unlimited.

Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud, speaking to reporters in Riyadh, has said the little trust that remained in Iran has been completely shattered.

“Iran’s attacks on neighbouring countries were premeditated, and what we are witnessing now confirms this,” Saudi Arabia’s top diplomat added.

“I would hope that they understand the message of the meeting today (ministers of Foreign Relations of the GCC), recalculate quickly and stop attacking their neighbours.”

How will what remain of the Iranian regime emerge from this situation? Iran’s theocracy will almost certainly not emerge unscathed if it persists in attacking its Arab neighbors, as sooner or later they will be forced to enter the conflict against Iran, and this will mean even greater devastation for that country.

For the United States and Israel, the joining of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and even Oman in the conflict against Iran will constitute a strategic, political, and propaganda victory of great value. After NATO members refused to help the United States reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the fact that countries in the region are joining in the attacks on Iran would validate Washington and Tel Aviv's false rhetoric that Iran, not them, is the true threat in the region.