The second fall of Palmyra: what happened and how will the
Syrian-Russian-Iranian alliance respond?
December 21, 2016 Thesaker.is
By Aram
Mirzaei
On
December 8, the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant terrorist group launched a
major offensive in a bid to recapture the ancient city of Palmyra, which was
otherwise lost to the Syrian Army earlier in March this year. ISIL managed to
not only muster between 4000-5000 fighters, but managed to travel across the
eastern Homs desert unnoticed until they reached the gates of the ancient city.
Their swift advance was made from three flanks, with ISIL terrorists attacking
from the north, the south and the east. ISIL initially captured the Jabal
Hayyan area which overlooks the city and the Al-Mahr Oil Fields to the north.
Despite a Syrian-Russian counterattack which initially repelled the ISIL
assault and killed at least 300 militants according to the Russian Ministry of
Defense, ISIL still managed to renew their assault as the Syrian government
forces were forced to withdraw amid a massive evacuation of civilians from the
city. [1] [2]
By
December 11, ISIL had fully recaptured the city after the Syrian Army withdrew,
facing overwhelming ISIL numbers and an imminent threat of encirclement.[3]
This event
left many observers of the Syrian conflict with the question: what happened?
How could the SAA lose the city so quickly, especially with ISIL being weakened
so badly in recent times?
It has since
the offensive was launched been revealed that a large number of ISIL terrorists
had withdrawn from the towns of Rawa and Al-Qaem in Iraq, in order to engage
the Syrian and Russian forces in the eastern Homs area. [4]
Southfront.org
offered an analysis the next day, explaining the events that led to the second
fall of Palmyra. The article explains that the rapid breakthrough and
advancement of the ISIL terrorists was due to some fundamental mistakes made by
commanders of the Syrian Army and the allied National Defense Forces (NDF) who
let their guards down. In sum, they had not paid attention to sufficient
fortification activities, and tactical reconnaissance and assessment of the
attacking enemy forces. This resulted in insufficient information to the Army
High Command causing them to fail to take preventive actions to counter the
imminent ISIL threat. Southfront however also considers mistakes made by the
Russian assist and advice mission, with regards to the surprise of the
redeployment of ISIL units from Iraq to Syria. [5]
This
reason is one of the most important ones to consider when analysing the fall of
Palmyra. Already in October this year, reports emerged that the US along with
its Gulf allies had devised a plan to “relocate” ISIL militants from Mosul to
Syria. The Russian news outlet RIA Novosti had revealed that the plan was to
allow up to 9000 ISIL terrorists safe passage out of Mosul with the condition
that they fight Syrian and Russian troops in Palmyra and Deir Ezzor. [6] This plan is essentially aimed at removing all Syrian government
presence from eastern Syria, thus creating the infamous “Sunni entity” in
eastern Syria and Western Iraq, with its role intended to be a permanent thorn
in the side of Syria and its allies.
With this
information at the disposal of the Syrian and Russian governments, it seems
rather strange that the preparations for this upcoming influx of ISIL
terrorists from Iraq to Syria was rather absent amid the rapid ISIL advance.
Meanwhile, unconfirmed reports from twitter mainly, speculated about the idea
that the US air force could have played a part in the very unnoticed ISIL
advance to Palmyra. Any observer of this war would wonder how the massive ISIL
convoys managed to travel from the oil rich town of Al-Sukhanah in the far
eastern reaches of the Homs province to Palmyra totally under the radar with
Russian satellites being unable to detect them. The Twitter user “Maytham”
reported that the US air force had disrupted the “VHF radios and radars via satellites
over the roads between Al-Sukhanah and Palmyra” in order to provide a 6 hour
cover for ISIL’s passage. Whether or not this is true, I’ll leave up for
debate, we should however not forget that the US has assisted ISIL in the past,
most notably when it “accidentally” bombed the Syrian Army in Deir Ezzor on
September 20, killing more than 80 Syrian soldiers in the process.
Another
factor explaining the loss of Palmyra that must be underscored is the fact that
the Syrian Army simply does not have enough troops to attack and hold its
positions on the multitude of fronts it is engaged in. The Army had sent some
of its best troops to Aleppo for the major offensive that was launched in
November and that resulted in the inevitable defeat of terrorist groups in this
imperative city. This however left the Army very vulnerable on other fronts,
especially the eastern fronts such as Palmyra.
While the
liberation of Aleppo was welcomed by many, including me, I do think that it
could have gone a lot quicker than it did. Ever since the Army managed to
complete the siege back in July this year, the Army has had a chance to finally
finish off the terrorist groups entrenched inside the eastern districts of the
city. The Syrian and Russian governments have however been stalled on multiple
occasions due to interference by the Western powers and their regional vassals.
On too many occasions have the Syrian government and its allies agreed to
pointless ceasefires, putting their faith in diplomacy and trusting the main
backers of the terrorist groups fighting the Syrian Army. Too many times have
they been disappointed and had to paid the price with the lives of brave
soldiers.
These
constant ceasefires have only been used by the US and its allies as a way to
stall the Army and delay the inevitable. This gave other jihadists, most
notably ISIL a window of opportunity to attack weaker fronts and take advantage
of the massive amount of troops tied down at the Aleppo front. The liberation
of Aleppo gives a bittersweet taste as Palmyra fell simultaneously, allowing
the US to strike back in revenge for its proxies losing perhaps the most
important battle in this war.
The Syrian
government and its allies must stop putting their faith in “diplomacy” and
allow the West to direct the course of actions, or else they will continue to
remain in this kind of stalemate where they achieve an important gain, only to
lose another strategic or symbolic point elsewhere. While the battle for Aleppo
is over, the battle for Idlib is about to become the next focus point in this
bloody war, a battle that will take the SAA far longer time and demand far more
resources in order to achieve victory.
1. http://tass.com/world/918505?__hstc=143095274.6382dc5dd8e3b5f6135ac5ee5371dcdf.1473976512470.1481753379374.1481973110672.185&__hssc=143095274.10.1481973110672&__hsfp=56543330↑
3. https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/isis-fully-retakes-palmyra-stunning-blitz-offensive-map-update/ ↑
5. https://southfront.org/syrian-war-report-december-12-2016-mistakes-that-led-to-fall-of-palmyra/ ↑
http://theduran.com/the-us-plan-for-isis-out-of-iraq-into-syria-to-fight-assad/
No hay comentarios:
Publicar un comentario