The Truth About Ukraine’s Failing Counteroffensive And The Peace That Could Have Been
BY: DAVID SACKS
JUNE 20, 2023
How long will Biden be able to perpetuate a proxy
war of choice that could have easily been avoided?
With each passing day, it’s becoming clear that
the Ukrainian counteroffensive is failing to achieve any of its originally
stated objectives. Recall: The Biden administration’s bet was that the
counteroffensive would roll back Russian territorial gains, cut the land bridge
to Crimea, and force Russia to the negotiating table. That is almost certainly
not going to happen. On the contrary, a stalemate is more likely, or even that
Russia will take more territory and win the war, as John Mearsheimer has
predicted.
What are President Biden’s options now? Either
escalate or admit defeat. In preparation for NATO’s Vilnius Summit, Secretary
of State Antony Blinken has been floating a proposal to give “Israel status” to
Ukraine. This means multi-year security guarantees including weapons,
ammunition, and money that would continue even if Biden loses the next
election.
This is not what the American people signed up for.
Many Americans supported the $100-plus billion in appropriations for Ukraine,
believing it was a one-time deal to reverse Russian territorial gains. If they
had been told it was the basis for an annual appropriation in a new Forever
War, they would have preferred an alternative, especially if they had known
that one was available.
The Peace that Could Have Been
New evidence is emerging that a peace deal was
achievable at the beginning of the war. At a recent meeting with the African
delegation, Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly showed the draft of an
outline or preliminary agreement signed by the Ukrainian delegation in Istanbul
in early 2022. It allegedly provided that Russia would pull back to pre-war
lines if Ukraine would agree not to join NATO (but Ukraine could receive
security guarantees from the West).
This document has not been publicly released yet, but
no one seriously contests that it exists. The only dispute is over what
happened subsequently; Ukraine contends the deal fell apart.
However, the availability of a deal based on Ukrainian neutrality is consistent
with previous comments from Naftali Bennett, who said among other things that a
deal was attainable but
rejected by the West.
Why would the West do this? Ukrainska Pravda (UP), a
pro-Ukraine publication, reported in
May 2022:
As soon as the Ukrainian negotiators and Abramovich/Medinsky
[the Russian negotiators], following the outcome of Istanbul, had agreed on the
structure of a future possible agreement in general terms, UK Prime Minister
Boris Johnson appeared in Kyiv almost without warning. ‘Johnson brought two simple
messages to Kyiv. The first is that Putin is a war criminal; he should be
pressured, not negotiated with. And the second is that even if Ukraine is ready
to sign some agreements on guarantees with Putin, they are not. We can sign (an
agreement) with you (Ukraine), but not with him. Anyway, he will screw everyone
over’, is how one of Zelenskyy’s close associates summed up the essence of
Johnson’s visit.”
Johnson (who must have been speaking not just for
himself but for the Western alliance) wanted to pressure Putin, not make peace,
and promised new weapons systems if Ukraine would keep fighting.
At the time of UP’s article, Ukraine appeared to be
doing well, so UP portrayed Zelensky’s decision to accept Johnson’s offer as a
smart gamble. Now, in hindsight, it looks like a disaster.
Afghanistan Redux?
I know some of you may find it hard to believe that
the realities on the ground are so at odds with the corporate media’s coverage.
But it’s worth recalling that the American public was assured for two decades
that we were winning in Afghanistan. All of that reporting was revealed as a
pack of lies when the Afghan army that we were supposedly “standing up”
collapsed within a matter of weeks. At that point, the media stopped reporting
on Afghanistan, just like it had stopped reporting on Iraq, instead of holding
anyone accountable.
Unfortunately, it looks like we’re headed for a
similar kind of outcome in Ukraine. The only question is when, and how long
Biden will be able to perpetuate a proxy war of choice that could have easily
been avoided.
David Sacks is an entrepreneur and author who
specializes in digital technology firms. He is a co-founder and general partner
of the venture capital fund Craft Ventures and was the founding COO of PayPal. He is also co-host of the @theallinpod.
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