Washington pressure pushing Moscow and Beijing closer
By Oleg Ivanov Source:Global Times Published: 2016-6-27
The visit of Russian
President Vladimir Putin to China and his talks with Chinese leader Xi Jinping again
drew the attention of the international community to evolving relations among
Russia, China and the US. Some experts believe that Russia and China are trying
to create a new world order so as to replace the US as a global leader. Others
claim that Russia and China are just trying to adjust themselves to the new
emerging geopolitical configuration to make it more acceptable for both
countries.
It is necessary to highlight some factors which shape the character of relations between Russia, China and the US. The first one deals with the unjustified perception in the US of the integration processes in the post-Soviet space, namely, the creation of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) which is wrongly regarded as a Russian attempt to revive the Soviet Union.
Second, the joint project to harmonize the EEU and the Chinese "Belt and Road" initiative is also seen as an attempt to counterbalance the influence of the US and its allies in Central Asia and beyond.
Third, the US and NATO leadership are returning to the strategy of deterrence of Russia and possible NATO expansion which brought us back to the time of the Cold War. Thus, the West pushes Russia to the east, closer to China.
The situation around China is not simple either. China is also under geopolitical pressure from the US and its allies. The regional security problem is acute here. First, there are territorial disputes where the US is not a passive observer. Second, the US makes every effort to keep its control over the sea routes and supply of resources, especially energy in Southeast Asia.
On the whole, the US pivot to the Asia-Pacific and the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is aimed at the deterrence and undermining of growing Chinese power and influence in the region. Thus, China is pushed to the west and toward Russia.
The only way to break through this geopolitical encirclement for China is to move closer to Russia and the EEU. The successful advancement of "Belt and Road" may reduce the dependence on routes through the South China Sea and the Strait of Malacca. So it may ease tensions between China and the US. The realization of the project will give independence and geopolitical and geoeconomic leverage to Russia and China.
Another essential opportunity to increase the weight and significance of Russia and China is the enhancing role of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). This year the SCO celebrates its 15th anniversary. According to Putin, the enlargement of its spheres and the growing number of its members has made this organization more powerful and more necessary both in the region and in the world. The economic potential of the SCO will be realized in the creation of the common trade space which will also open up new opportunities.
At the same time, it would be undesirable if this successful connectivity leads to a hostile attitude toward the US and its allies. The connectivity should not have a confrontational character against the EU and the US. The common interest is to establish partnerships between European and Eurasian projects with the active participation of China.
Despite economic sanctions, the EU is still an important partner for Russia while China has close economic ties with the US. It would be detrimental to develop any projects between Russia and China at the expense of relations with Western partners.
The strategic goal of the connectivity of projects and the increased role of the SCO should be the creation of political and economic Eurasian partnership on the basis of complementarity which is open to new members and projects. This kind of arrangement should not be aimed at replacing the US as a global leader but at being another pillar of regional, and maybe global, political and economic systems in the future. It should be an alternative for those who would not like to put a stake on the US and the institutions it leads.
The author is Vice-Rector of Research, Moscow-based Diplomatic Academy. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn
It is necessary to highlight some factors which shape the character of relations between Russia, China and the US. The first one deals with the unjustified perception in the US of the integration processes in the post-Soviet space, namely, the creation of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) which is wrongly regarded as a Russian attempt to revive the Soviet Union.
Second, the joint project to harmonize the EEU and the Chinese "Belt and Road" initiative is also seen as an attempt to counterbalance the influence of the US and its allies in Central Asia and beyond.
Third, the US and NATO leadership are returning to the strategy of deterrence of Russia and possible NATO expansion which brought us back to the time of the Cold War. Thus, the West pushes Russia to the east, closer to China.
The situation around China is not simple either. China is also under geopolitical pressure from the US and its allies. The regional security problem is acute here. First, there are territorial disputes where the US is not a passive observer. Second, the US makes every effort to keep its control over the sea routes and supply of resources, especially energy in Southeast Asia.
On the whole, the US pivot to the Asia-Pacific and the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is aimed at the deterrence and undermining of growing Chinese power and influence in the region. Thus, China is pushed to the west and toward Russia.
The only way to break through this geopolitical encirclement for China is to move closer to Russia and the EEU. The successful advancement of "Belt and Road" may reduce the dependence on routes through the South China Sea and the Strait of Malacca. So it may ease tensions between China and the US. The realization of the project will give independence and geopolitical and geoeconomic leverage to Russia and China.
Another essential opportunity to increase the weight and significance of Russia and China is the enhancing role of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). This year the SCO celebrates its 15th anniversary. According to Putin, the enlargement of its spheres and the growing number of its members has made this organization more powerful and more necessary both in the region and in the world. The economic potential of the SCO will be realized in the creation of the common trade space which will also open up new opportunities.
At the same time, it would be undesirable if this successful connectivity leads to a hostile attitude toward the US and its allies. The connectivity should not have a confrontational character against the EU and the US. The common interest is to establish partnerships between European and Eurasian projects with the active participation of China.
Despite economic sanctions, the EU is still an important partner for Russia while China has close economic ties with the US. It would be detrimental to develop any projects between Russia and China at the expense of relations with Western partners.
The strategic goal of the connectivity of projects and the increased role of the SCO should be the creation of political and economic Eurasian partnership on the basis of complementarity which is open to new members and projects. This kind of arrangement should not be aimed at replacing the US as a global leader but at being another pillar of regional, and maybe global, political and economic systems in the future. It should be an alternative for those who would not like to put a stake on the US and the institutions it leads.
The author is Vice-Rector of Research, Moscow-based Diplomatic Academy. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn
Russian cooperation with China is tactical, not strategic
By Shen Dingli Source:Global Times Published: 2016-6-27
During Russian President
Vladimir Putin's just concluded state visit to China, a series of massive deals
were sealed between the two sides and Sino-Russian strategic mutual trust has
been hailed and consolidated. Apart from that, in the joint statement signed by
Chinese President Xi Jinping and
Putin, both countries voiced their concern over an increasing number of
"negative factors" affecting global strategic stability without
mentioning names. The two major powers are showing a clear intention to join
hands in counterbalancing the US.
China is a realistic country, and it is aware of the power of leverage. In the early 1970s, Beijing developed a close relationship with Washington to respond to Moscow's military threat. The two later cooperated on strategic defense, and the US served as a source of advanced technology and equipment for China's military.
At that time, even though the White House maintained a "diplomatic relationship" with Taiwan, China still tried to seek US help to counter the pressure from the former Soviet Union. Today, against the backdrop of the accelerating US rebalance to the Asia-Pacific strategy, which aims at containing the rise of China, we have no reason to refuse the use of realistic measures for our own interests, including counterbalancing the US-Japan alliance through cooperation with Russia. China's wisdom since ancient times will not be lost in the current era.
Such wisdom is shared by all members in the international community, including Russia. Moscow is now using the same strategy to maintain its own national interests. If there is a way that can help it resist the threat from the US while preserving a certain degree of mutually beneficial collaboration with Washington, cooperation with Beijing is the way forward.
Some Russian media have claimed that after Russia announced the "turn to the East" strategy in 2010, no solid progress has been made so far. The country's joint work with China is more of a grand vision rather than actual improvements in projects. Indeed, the Kremlin's "turn to the East" is only a contingency plan, which was basically put into effect under pressure. In the light of this, Russia's collaboration with China is more a matter of expediency, instead of a "strategy."
Russia's heart is always with the West. Its biggest hope is to earn the respect from the West and integrate into the Western hemisphere. This is the mainstream value among Russian elite. If the next US president shows more respect to Russia and is less tough toward Moscow, the Kremlin's "turn to the East" will very likely swing to the West.
Recently, Putin initiated the establishment of a Greater Eurasian partnership on the basis of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). The goal of his proposal is to integrate resources in its neighborhood while preventing the West from further expanding to the east.
In the meantime, Russia is also on guard against China. Even though such broad partnership has a place for Beijing, this is an outcome of bilateral compromise. Beijing is concerned about the EEU's negative impact on China's westward development, while Moscow is worried over China's growing influence in its peripheral countries via the "Belt and Road" initiative.
That's why we now see the programs from the two sides are connected to each other. This is a structure of balance as well as a result of give-and-take.
No matter what the Sino-Russian bilateral relationship is going through for the moment, be it big deals, Russia's "turn to the East" strategy or the Greater Eurasian partnership, none of them are long-term strategies, but only tactical cooperation.
Due to the different core values of the two sides, cooperation between Beijing and Moscow is mostly aimed at third parties. Yet history has proven numerous times that any collaboration based on considerations aimed at a third party will be bound to change with the times.
A crucial challenge that China-Russia ties are now confronting is how to transform their joint work based on realism into a foundation of long-term bilateral cooperation.
The author is deputy dean of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn
China is a realistic country, and it is aware of the power of leverage. In the early 1970s, Beijing developed a close relationship with Washington to respond to Moscow's military threat. The two later cooperated on strategic defense, and the US served as a source of advanced technology and equipment for China's military.
At that time, even though the White House maintained a "diplomatic relationship" with Taiwan, China still tried to seek US help to counter the pressure from the former Soviet Union. Today, against the backdrop of the accelerating US rebalance to the Asia-Pacific strategy, which aims at containing the rise of China, we have no reason to refuse the use of realistic measures for our own interests, including counterbalancing the US-Japan alliance through cooperation with Russia. China's wisdom since ancient times will not be lost in the current era.
Such wisdom is shared by all members in the international community, including Russia. Moscow is now using the same strategy to maintain its own national interests. If there is a way that can help it resist the threat from the US while preserving a certain degree of mutually beneficial collaboration with Washington, cooperation with Beijing is the way forward.
Some Russian media have claimed that after Russia announced the "turn to the East" strategy in 2010, no solid progress has been made so far. The country's joint work with China is more of a grand vision rather than actual improvements in projects. Indeed, the Kremlin's "turn to the East" is only a contingency plan, which was basically put into effect under pressure. In the light of this, Russia's collaboration with China is more a matter of expediency, instead of a "strategy."
Russia's heart is always with the West. Its biggest hope is to earn the respect from the West and integrate into the Western hemisphere. This is the mainstream value among Russian elite. If the next US president shows more respect to Russia and is less tough toward Moscow, the Kremlin's "turn to the East" will very likely swing to the West.
Recently, Putin initiated the establishment of a Greater Eurasian partnership on the basis of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). The goal of his proposal is to integrate resources in its neighborhood while preventing the West from further expanding to the east.
In the meantime, Russia is also on guard against China. Even though such broad partnership has a place for Beijing, this is an outcome of bilateral compromise. Beijing is concerned about the EEU's negative impact on China's westward development, while Moscow is worried over China's growing influence in its peripheral countries via the "Belt and Road" initiative.
That's why we now see the programs from the two sides are connected to each other. This is a structure of balance as well as a result of give-and-take.
No matter what the Sino-Russian bilateral relationship is going through for the moment, be it big deals, Russia's "turn to the East" strategy or the Greater Eurasian partnership, none of them are long-term strategies, but only tactical cooperation.
Due to the different core values of the two sides, cooperation between Beijing and Moscow is mostly aimed at third parties. Yet history has proven numerous times that any collaboration based on considerations aimed at a third party will be bound to change with the times.
A crucial challenge that China-Russia ties are now confronting is how to transform their joint work based on realism into a foundation of long-term bilateral cooperation.
The author is deputy dean of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn
No hay comentarios:
Publicar un comentario