THE LIKELY VICTORY OF SHEINBAUM IN THE ELECTIONS AND ITS CONSEQUENCES FOR MEXICO

All the polls on the presidential election on June 2 in Mexico give Morena's candidate (the ruling party) a wide advantage over her main rival Xóchitl Gálvez of the coalition formed by three opposition parties (PRI, PAN, and PRD).

The site Oraculus.mx, which conducts an average of the surveys of the main companies dedicated to it, reported last week that Sheinbaum had a preference of 64% among voters, while Gálvez only reached 31%.

The newspaper Reforma, which is considered the most critical of President López Obrador's administration, reported in its November 2023 poll that the preference for Sheinbaum was 54%, against only 19% for Gálvez.

And in the same sense are the surveys of various media outlets and survey companies.

Two weeks before the start of the election campaigns, which will last only 3 months, it seems almost impossible that Gálvez will be able to catch up with and overtake Sheinbaum (the other presidential candidate, Jorge Alvarez of the Civic Movement, only has an 8% preference).

While it is true that around 35% of the electorate still does not define who they will vote for, it seems pertinent to ask what awaits Mexico with the probable victory of the ruling candidate.

First, it will follow the welfare policy of giving cash to the elderly, unemployed youth, single mothers, the disabled, peasants, etc. These monetary transfers will total almost nine hundred billion pesos during 2024 (58 billion dollars).

Second, Sheinbaum will try to maintain the annual increases to the minimum wage, which reached 110% during the López Obrador government.

Thirdly, the armed forces will continue to perform functions previously fulfilled by civilians, such as managing railway companies, airlines, airports, building roads, bank branches, controlling customs, distributing medicines, etc.

Fourth, the alliance with Mexico's big businessmen will be maintained, which, according to the non-governmental organization Oxfam, has allowed the country's 14 super-rich to increase their fortunes by up to 70% during the López Obrador government.

Fifth, a “let go” policy will be maintained with respect to organized crime organizations, which has generated enormous violence during López Obrador’s government, with 180,000 murders, 45,000 disappearances and an exponential increase in crimes such as extortion and highway robbery (of private transporters and motorists).

Sixth, a policy of dismantling autonomous bodies and institutions charged with fighting corruption, such as the National Institute for Access to Information and the National Anti-Corruption System, will be maintained, as both the government of López Obrador and candidate Sheinbaum consider them “inheritance” of the neoliberal regime.

Seventh, political polarization in the country will continue to deepen, as this has been to the advantage of the government of López Obrador and his party, to the extent that their bases of support can clearly identify the “enemy”, and this allows them to unite in electoral contests.

And eighth, a government headed by Claudia Sheinbaum will try to stay on good terms with the U. S. government, regardless of whether it is headed by Trump or Biden, because it does not want a confrontation with its main trading partner, from which also come annual remittances of more than $60 billion, as well as substantial investments.

For all these reasons, Sheinbaum’s candidacy is one of continuity, that is, both the positive and negative aspects of the López Obrador government will remain present during the next administration, which is not good news for the majority of the Mexican people, who are suffering from the onslaught of organized crime, the lack of medical care and medicines (50 million Mexicans do not have health insurance; 58.8% of the economically active population do not have access to public health institutions); corruption will remain unstoppable (Mexico has remained in the 126 position out of 180 countries assessed by Transparency International on corruption); and the serious social and political divide among Mexicans will deepen, delaying the search for solutions to the country's major problems for another six years.