America Hits China in Order
to Frighten Russia
September 26, 2018
By Rostislav Ishchenko
Translated by Ollie
Richardson and Angelina Siard
The Central Military Commission of China
was hit because of its purchase of 10 Russian Su-35 and equipment for
surface-to-air S-400 missiles. Or more precisely, China was allegedly hit — a
number of its average importance employees are now forbidden from granting
American export licenses, performing currency transactions in American
jurisdiction, and the US can also arrest their property and freeze their
accounts in its territory.
It’s possible to call these sanctions
ridiculous. It is clear that all of this is already forbidden for the
corresponding officials within the framework of Chinese legislation. In comparison
with the introduction of prohibitive duties on Chinese goods worth hundreds of
billions of dollars exported to the US, this isn’t even a mosquito bite. It’s
simply nothing. But there is a nuance. Washington stressed that the final
addressee of the sanctions is Russia, which allegedly interferes with the
American elections, behaves badly in the East of Ukraine, and in general
prevents America from living worldwide.
I think that the US thus reacted
not to the specific purchase by China of Russian military equipment, but to the
general strengthening of military-political cooperation between Russia and
China.
Two years ago, when Xi Jinping suggested
to Russia to seal a military-political union between the countries in the form
of a binding contract, I already happened to write that in the present
conditions it is unprofitable to Russia to sign documents of this sort. This
would not just make Russian foreign policy dependent on the decisions made in
Beijing, but would also allow China to behave much more rigidly towards the US
thanks to the coercive reorientation of Russian activity in the Far East. But
in the European theater the level of China’s support for Russia wouldn’t grow.
Unlike Russia, China isn’t present there territorially, i.e., a direct threat
doesn’t come to it from Europe, but in the Pacific theater of military
operations Beijing needs to concentrate practically all its resources against
the US, and preferably also the maximum amount of Russian resources too.
But I wrote that the non-formalisation
of relations in the form of a binding contract doesn’t mean the absence of a
Russian-Chinese military-political union in practice. It exists. It acts. It is
directed against the US, like against a general threat. But at the same time,
at every separate moment Moscow and Beijing make a decision about the level of
support for each other in a specific region, proceeding from the general
geopolitical situation.
Obviously, for some time Washington
amused itself with the same illusions found among Russian SOS-patriots [members
of Russian society who have a habit of reacting over-emotionally to news
concerning foreign policy matters – ed], who for some reason consider that if a
specific paper isn’t signed, then it is impossible to establish cooperation in
any way. The statements and actions of both the administration of Obama (in the
latter years of his reign) and Trump testifies that the US hopes to divide
Russia and China and fight against them separately — against Russia on the
European battlefield, and against China in the Pacific battlefield. It would
give America the chance to manoeuvre with resources, throwing them against the
main, at the current moment, opponent.
These hopes were surprising even
earlier. Perhaps the Americans overestimated the efficiency of
the anti-Chinese propaganda organised by them in the Russian media and
expert community, intimidating Russians by talking about the “Chinese
occupation” of Siberia and the Far East. By the way, the Americans tried
to unleash similar anti-Russian propaganda in China with the help of local
expert circles. But, anyway, they definitively vanished when Russia once again
asymmetrically responded to the American intrigues that lead towards an
increase in tensions in Syria and in Ukraine, and also to attempts to block
Russian-German (and more widely – Russian-European) energy cooperation.
Moscow staged large-scale drills in the
Far East (“Vostok-2018”), having involved in total over 300,000 people (a third
of the combat structure of the army). Russia earlier showed its possibilities
for operative manoeuvres via forces and means and for the creation, in the
shortest possible time, of shock groups in any strategic directions. But such a
number of troops have never been involved in exercises of this sort before. Russia
extremely transparently showed to Washington that it is capable in only a
few days of gathering in the Far East a group of troops of any number and
structure, and also to provide military operations during an unlimited period
of time.
The participation of a Chinese
contingent in the exercises unambiguously showed who this military activity was
aimed at. At the same time, it is necessary to understand that for the creation
and provision of a two-three times smaller group (on the territories of ally states,
with developed in advance infrastructure) Washington usually needs from
two months to half a year. I.e., in the event of a joint Russian-Chinese
military action in the region, the US will be able to react (without the use of
the strategic nuclear weapons) only when it will have already ended.
Meanwhile, in the 90’s and in the
beginning of the 2000’s the US ensured their military-political domination in
the world precisely thanks to the ability to quickly create in any region of
the planet a grouping capable, by means of conventional arms, of suppressing
any opponent in the zone of responsibility. Back then Russia was able to defend
its territory only because an attack on Russia meant the beginning of nuclear
war, but it couldn’t effectively resist the US outside its own borders, which
the Americans actively exploited.
During
the “Vostok-2018” exercises it was convincingly shown to America
that in this region its former advantage had disappeared. It can’t effectively
resist joint Russian-Chinese military activity. At the same time, the US has no
reason to opt for a nuclear confrontation, because their territory is reliably
protected from non-nuclear military action by the ocean, where (for now) the
American fleet dominates.
In fact, the military-political squeezing
of the US out of Southeast Asia has started, like how earlier Russia started to
squeeze Washington out of the Middle East during the Syrian campaign. The
concept “Big Eurasia”, besides the earlier inherent in it economic
outlines, obtained a concrete military-political form. The sharp breakthrough
in inter-Korean dialogue, which took place practically on the terms of
Pyongyang, is the best confirmation of this.
Already in the spring of this year the
US, relying on its South Korean ally, threatened the Democratic People’s
Republic of Korea with military aggression. Back then China took a hard line,
having notified Washington that if the Americans will strike the first blow,
then Beijing will give Northern Korea military support. Russia expressed itself
more flexibly, having called for the parties to hold dialogue and having put
its troops in the region on full combat readiness. Nobody doubted whose side
Moscow would be on in the event of a military conflict. By the way, the
dialogue that took place soon after between Trump and Kim Jong-un was regarded
in the world as a victory for Pyongyang, and thus its allies too.
And after less than half a year had
passed since those events, the Republic of Korea, looking at its northern
neighbor through the crosshairs and preparing for war, reaches unprecedented
agreements on political and economic interaction with the Democratic People’s
Republic of Korea; the exchange of visits starts, during which sincere
friendliness and full mutual understanding is shown. But inter-Korean dialogue
and peace between two Koreas means for the US the loss of the South Korean
bridgehead. And after having lost military-political influence over Seoul,
Washington will also lose economic influence. And this is seen in all Southeast
Asia. This is a catastrophe.
For the Russians who got used to a
Euro-centric policy, events in the Far East aren’t so obvious, but their
geopolitical meaning is huge. The loss of control over Southeast Asia makes for
the US any attempts to remain in Europe and in the Middle East senseless. They
simply can’t be insured with resources (neither military-politically, nor
economically).
That’s why Washington is nervous and
sends signals of its discontent with the developing Russian-Chinese military
cooperation, which unexpectedly for the US, without any written contracts, came
to the level of close interaction that has destroyed the American
military-political control over Southeast Asia that took decades to build.
Yes, these signals aren’t convincing.
But the US already used everything serious that they could use in the
sphere of the economy against Russia in 2014-2015, when Obama was sure that he
had torn the Russian economy to pieces. And the Trump administration already
involved all available sanctions mechanisms against China. Anyway, it is
impossible to introduce duties that are greater than the volume of Chinese
export, but the US has already come close to this threshold.
Of course, the Chinese economy is more
vulnerable to American attacks than the Russian one. Beijing, unlike Moscow,
wasn’t engaged during 15 years in the concealed reorganisation of its economy
and the creation even not of import-substituting enterprises, but of whole
spheres. Those several years that were lacking for full strategic self-sufficiency,
due to the ahead of schedule eruption of the Ukrainian crisis, were made up in
2014-2016. Now Russia is capable not only of standing on its feet, but also of
supporting China.
Without the severance of
the Russian-Chinese union – unwritten, but no less strong and effective as
a result – Washington isn’t able to reach any of its strategic objectives,
neither in Trump’s concept, nor in Clinton/Obama’s concept. The only thing that
the US is capable of doing, which they obviously lead affairs towards, is to set
fire to some more regions and to try to additionally foment already
existing conflicts in order to leave behind only ruins for the winners, like
the retreating Germans did in 1943-1945.
But the concept of scorched earth didn’t
save the Reich, and it won’t save the US either. It will simply cause
additional damage to America’s allies, who are being scorched just to spite
Russia. And this means that those from them who still can break free from the
leash will flee from Washington en masse. After all, they have no place to hide
except under the Russian-Chinese umbrella. There is no force in the world
anymore that would throw down to the US a military-political and economic
challenge and would force Washington to retreat on all fronts, including the
internal one – where, as the Americans try to assure, Russia elects presidents
for them.