Russia has no incentive to press Turkey conflict
By Cui Hongjian Source:Global Times Published: 2015-12-1
Following Russian
President Vladimir Putin denouncing Turkey's downing of a Russian fighter jet
as "a stab in the back," the Kremlin ruled out military retaliatory
measures against Ankara. "We have no intention of fighting a war with
Turkey," Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov claimed. Instead, Russian
announced a package of economic sanctions against Turkey on Saturday in
retaliation.
It is wise for the Kremlin to rule out any armed response. Military escalation would jeopardize Russia's main objectives in the Middle East - winning international support for its operations in Syria. The legitimacy of the Kremlin's presence in the region would be threatened if Moscow's target changed from Damascus to Ankara. Military revenge would make it tough for Russia to expand its influence in the region.
The Turkish government, on the other hand, has already prepared for Putin's reprisal. Soon after the downing of the fighter jet, Ankara turned to NATO and the UN for help. In case of a military response from Kremlin, Turkey could counter on NATO's support. The UN would then serve as a platform where the Turkish government could seek moral support. Therefore, it would be irrational for the Kremlin to respond with military measures.
It seems that save for the West, most nations feel pity for Russia following the incident. Moscow is quite effective in fighting against Islamic State (IS). Even if its warplane strayed into Turkish airspace, the jet was inside the borders for just 17 seconds before being shot down. Thus, a majority of nations would show understanding to Kremlin's retaliation.
Some have been concerned that the Moscow-Ankara dispute could develop into an all-out confrontation between Russia and NATO. It is true that the Western countries have long been criticizing Kremlin as a challenger to the world order. Yet the Russia-NATO conflicts are focused on the Ukrainian crisis, rather than on Turkey. The West accused the Russian government of breaching international law for its alleged intervention in the eastern Ukraine, where the real Russia-NATO battlefield is located.
Turkey is not a leading member of NATO. In fact, some NATO countries, including the US, claimed that the downing of the jet is a Turkey-Russia bilateral conflict. At Ankara's request, NATO called an emergency ambassador meeting and pledged support to Turkey in case of any military retaliation from Russia. NATO could do nothing with Russia if Turkey faces no military threat.
How the Russia-Turkey relationship will develop hinges on the situation in Syria. The root cause for the downing is that Kremlin's anti-terrorism operations in Syria may have jeopardized Ankara's interests. Some Turkish officials may be using the state apparatus to satisfy their self-interests. To some degree, the deterioration of the Moscow-Ankara relationship is a by-product of Russia's operations in Syria. How it will develop depends on Russia's future operations in Syria and the extent to which Turkey can accept the Kremlin's actions in the region.
Currently, Ankara is now trying to find an excuse to get pass this. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is likely to shift the responsibility of the downing to Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu. In addition, French President Francois Hollande, finishing his Russia trip last week, is expected to be a moderator in the Turkey-Russia conflicts. Paris urgently needs to establish an anti-terrorism coalition, in which Russia is playing a significant role. Easing the Turkey-Russia relationship would be good for France.
In fact, deteriorating ties with Turkey do not conform to Kremlin's interests either. Moscow does not want another enemy. Thus, it is unlikely for Russia to drive Turkey into a desperate situation. Although economic revenge has been taken against Ankara, both sides are still expected to find excuses to ease their bilateral relations in the future.
The author is director of the department of EU Studies at the China Institute of International Studies.opinion@globaltimes.com.cn
It is wise for the Kremlin to rule out any armed response. Military escalation would jeopardize Russia's main objectives in the Middle East - winning international support for its operations in Syria. The legitimacy of the Kremlin's presence in the region would be threatened if Moscow's target changed from Damascus to Ankara. Military revenge would make it tough for Russia to expand its influence in the region.
The Turkish government, on the other hand, has already prepared for Putin's reprisal. Soon after the downing of the fighter jet, Ankara turned to NATO and the UN for help. In case of a military response from Kremlin, Turkey could counter on NATO's support. The UN would then serve as a platform where the Turkish government could seek moral support. Therefore, it would be irrational for the Kremlin to respond with military measures.
It seems that save for the West, most nations feel pity for Russia following the incident. Moscow is quite effective in fighting against Islamic State (IS). Even if its warplane strayed into Turkish airspace, the jet was inside the borders for just 17 seconds before being shot down. Thus, a majority of nations would show understanding to Kremlin's retaliation.
Some have been concerned that the Moscow-Ankara dispute could develop into an all-out confrontation between Russia and NATO. It is true that the Western countries have long been criticizing Kremlin as a challenger to the world order. Yet the Russia-NATO conflicts are focused on the Ukrainian crisis, rather than on Turkey. The West accused the Russian government of breaching international law for its alleged intervention in the eastern Ukraine, where the real Russia-NATO battlefield is located.
Turkey is not a leading member of NATO. In fact, some NATO countries, including the US, claimed that the downing of the jet is a Turkey-Russia bilateral conflict. At Ankara's request, NATO called an emergency ambassador meeting and pledged support to Turkey in case of any military retaliation from Russia. NATO could do nothing with Russia if Turkey faces no military threat.
How the Russia-Turkey relationship will develop hinges on the situation in Syria. The root cause for the downing is that Kremlin's anti-terrorism operations in Syria may have jeopardized Ankara's interests. Some Turkish officials may be using the state apparatus to satisfy their self-interests. To some degree, the deterioration of the Moscow-Ankara relationship is a by-product of Russia's operations in Syria. How it will develop depends on Russia's future operations in Syria and the extent to which Turkey can accept the Kremlin's actions in the region.
Currently, Ankara is now trying to find an excuse to get pass this. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is likely to shift the responsibility of the downing to Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu. In addition, French President Francois Hollande, finishing his Russia trip last week, is expected to be a moderator in the Turkey-Russia conflicts. Paris urgently needs to establish an anti-terrorism coalition, in which Russia is playing a significant role. Easing the Turkey-Russia relationship would be good for France.
In fact, deteriorating ties with Turkey do not conform to Kremlin's interests either. Moscow does not want another enemy. Thus, it is unlikely for Russia to drive Turkey into a desperate situation. Although economic revenge has been taken against Ankara, both sides are still expected to find excuses to ease their bilateral relations in the future.
The author is director of the department of EU Studies at the China Institute of International Studies.opinion@globaltimes.com.cn
No hay comentarios:
Publicar un comentario