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martes, 22 de diciembre de 2020

 

The Washington Post Can’t Stop Babbling About Russians ‘Hacking Our Minds’


DECEMBER 19, 2020

AUTHOR: CAITLIN JOHNSTONE

https://caitlinjohnstone.com/2020/12/19/the-washington-post-cant-stop-babbling-about-russians-hacking-our-minds/

The Washington Post has published another article warning its readers that the Russians are “hacking our minds”, this one authored by CNN’s Fareed Zakaria.

“Russia hasn’t just hacked our computer systems. It’s hacked our minds.” blares the ridiculous, propagandistic headline for an article about “the Russian model” of propaganda which “rests on the principle that people get convinced when they hear the same message many times from a variety of sources, no matter how biased.”

Which is funny, since this is not the first time WaPo itself has repeated this cartoonish narrative about Russian mind-hackers.

Just two months ago the Washington Post editorial board published an article  titled “The U.S. may be safe from foreign interference in this election. But what about perception hacking?“, which opens with the line “Russia and other adversaries may not need to hack the election if they can hack something else: our minds.”

The paranoid screed unironically argued that Russia is using its super-powerful propaganda engine to make people paranoid and doubtful of US electoral systems, which could actually have an adverse effect on the US election. As though telling people their mental and perceptual faculties are being hacked by a hostile foreign enemy with the goal of influencing the election would not make them paranoid and doubtful of US electoral systems.

Zakaria’s piece builds on this already established theme by parroting the still completely evidence-free claim that Russia was responsible for the far-reaching cyber intrusion into the IT company SolarWinds, whose cybersecurity we recently learned was left so unprotected that its update server’s password was literally “solarwinds123”.

“But what about the perhaps more insidious Russian efforts at disinformation, which have helped to reshape the information environment worldwide?” Zakaria asks. He then does a few mental gymnastics to tie Russia’s propaganda campaign to Donald Trump, because of course he does, and leaves the reader with the closing line, “The problem is not just that Russia has hacked America’s computer systems. It seems to have hacked our minds.”

WaPo keeps hammering this narrative about powerful Russian mind-hackers as though Russia is the only nation with an existing propaganda campaign on the world stage and not one of the weaker ones doing so. The US government itself openly uses propaganda on foreigners with programs like Radio Free Europe, Radio Free Asia and Voice of America, which actually serve the more important function of presenting the illusion that those are the only form of US government propaganda.

In reality, the plutocratic class which owns the mass media works closely with the US government and sets up its institutions to only elevate voices that advance narratives that are favorable to the status quo those plutocrats have built their kingdoms upon. WaPo itself is owned by the richest man in the world who is also a CIA contractor and sits on a Pentagon advisory board. The unofficial propaganda operations of the oligarchic empire give it a massive edge in international narrative control that dwarfs both official US propaganda programs and anything the Russian government could ever come up with.

Among some very stiff competition, one of the dumbest recurring themes in western imperialist media is the idea that world affairs, entire electoral and governmental systems, and even our very minds, are being controlled by a nation with the same GDP as South Korea. Russia does not have an especially strong sway over the world stage, it just happens to be one of the few remaining power structures which have resisted absorption into the US-centralized empire and is being targeted with a propaganda campaign aimed at changing that.

Russia is not hacking your mind. If anyone is hacking your mind, it’s the vast globe-spanning power structure loosely centralized around the United States which has been aggressively propagandizing you into supporting the continuation of status quo politics since you were born.

The dawn of political insight comes when you realize that propaganda is not just something that is done by other nations to other people. It is done by your own rulers, in your own nation, and it is being done to you.

 

lunes, 21 de diciembre de 2020

 

The Endless War to Preserve American Primacy

Unable to achieve victory abroad, the United States has been battered by an accumulation of crises at home. The two are related.

by

Andrew Bacevich

Published on

Tuesday, December 15, 2020

by

Boston Globe

https://www.commondreams.org/views/2020/12/15/endless-war-preserve-american-primacy

For nearly two decades now, the United States has been waging a war to preserve American primacy. That’s not the official name, of course, but that describes the war’s actual if unacknowledged, purpose. Much depends on how the incoming Biden administration appraises the war's prospects. The fate of his presidency may well turn on Biden’s willingness to expedite the war’s long overdue termination.

During the heady days following the collapse of communism, American political elites had delighted in preening about the singular status of the United States as the sole superpower and indispensable nation. That the United States was history’s locomotive, with the rest of humankind dutifully trailing behind in the caboose, was taken as given. During the 1990s, the way ahead appeared clear.

When the terrorist attacks of 9/11 blew a hole in claims of American primacy, President George W. Bush immediately opted for war as the means to revive them. Pursued ever since in various venues and employing varied approaches, the subsequent military effort has met with little success.

As early as 2009, when President Barack Obama inherited the war to preserve American primacy, it had become apparent that the United States lacked the wherewithal to fulfill Bush’s ambitious Freedom Agenda, which he described as “the spread of freedom as the great alternative to the terrorists’ ideology of hatred.” But calling off the war and thereby abandoning the conceit of America as sole superpower required more political courage than Obama was able to muster. So the war dragged on.

In 2016, denouncing the entire effort as misguided helped Donald Trump win the presidency. Yet far from terminating the war once in office, Trump merely rendered it inexplicable. Trump had promised to put “America First.” Instead, his erratic behavior gave the world “America the Capricious.” All but rudderless, the war proceeded of its own accord.

Just weeks from now, President-elect Joe Biden will become the fourth engineer to put his hand on the throttle with expectations of getting history back on track. From the day he takes office, Biden will confront a host of pressing challenges. Let me suggest that ending the war to preserve American primacy should figure as a priority.

Reduced to its essentials, the choice at hand is stark: Either restore some overarching sense of purpose to continuing US military efforts in Afghanistan, Iraq, and other active theaters of war throughout the Middle East and Africa; or admit failure and bring the troops home.

To put it another way: Either persuade Americans that the war to preserve American primacy is enhancing the nation’s standing on the global stage and should continue; or cut our losses and concede that the United States is no longer the engine of history.

Initial signs suggest that Biden will finesse the issue. While promising to “end the forever wars, which have cost the United States untold blood and treasure,” he will instead redefine the mission. Relying on airstrikes, special operations troops, and American advisers working with local forces, he will continue the fight against Al Qaeda and ISIS, with strategy thereby taking a back seat to political expediency.

In effect, Biden will probably pursue a policy of evasion, unwilling to reckon with what two decades’ worth of military failures, frustrations, and apparent successes that turn out to be illusory actually signify. Yet while evasion may delay, it cannot avert such a reckoning. In the end, the truth will out. The only question is how much more Americans will be obliged to pay.

The truth is that far from shoring up American primacy, the war to preserve American primacy has accelerated American decline. Unable to achieve victory abroad, despite the prodigious expenditure of resources, the United States have been battered by an accumulation of crises at home. The two are related.

As the war has dragged on, preexisting divisions within American society have deepened. Endemic racism, economic inequality, political dysfunction, the alienation that has emerged as a signature of late modernity: None of these qualify as recent phenomena. Yet as long as fantasies of the United States serving as history’s designated agent persist, so too do illusions that the muscular assertion of American global leadership will ultimately put things rights.

There is today no chance that the war to preserve American primacy will achieve any of the myriad objectives offered up since 2001 to justify its perpetuation. Acknowledging that fact is a prerequisite to repairing all that is broken in our country. The sooner the work of repair begins the better.

When it comes to initiating wars, post-Cold War American leaders have displayed remarkable audacity, throwing prudence out the window. When it comes to ending wars, however, caution kicks in. Ending them “responsibly” becomes a rationale for inaction.

Yet ours is a moment that calls for audacity in terminating wars that are both needless and futile, and for boldness in repairing the damage that the United States has endured in recent years. Whether Joe Biden possesses the requisite audacity and boldness to chart a new course remains to be seen.

domingo, 20 de diciembre de 2020

 

Morena podría arrasar en las elecciones del próximo año

Enrique Quintana

20/12/2020

https://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/opinion/enrique-quintana/morena-podria-arrasar-en-las-elecciones-del-proximo-ano

Si los resultados de las encuestas de intención de voto se mantienen, en junio del próximo año Morena arrasaría las elecciones para gobernador en 15 estados del país, de acuerdo con las encuestas publicadas por El Financiero en la semana que termina.

Los resultados apuntan a lo siguiente: Querétaro podría ser retenido por el PAN; la alianza del PRI-PAN-PRD podría obtener triunfos en Baja California Sur y Sonora. Podría haber una contienda cerrada -hoy favorable a Morena frente al PAN- en Chihuahua y Nuevo León.

Pero Morena tiene una ventaja amplia en Baja California, donde retendría la gubernatura; en Campeche, Colima, Guerrero, San Luis Potosí, Sinaloa, Tlaxcala y Zacatecas, en donde quitaría al PRI del gobierno; y también en Nayarit, quitando a la alianza PAN-PRD, así como en Michoacán, en donde perdería el gobierno el PRD.

El escenario optimista para Morena es ganar 14 de las 15 gubernaturas en juego y su escenario “pesimista” es ganar “solo” 10 gubernaturas.

El gran perdedor de las elecciones del próximo año será el PRI, que en el escenario más optimista perdería 7 gobiernos estatales y en el más pesimista, perdería 8. El PAN ganaría 3 estados en el escenario más optimista y solo 1 en el panorama más pesimista.

Claro que es temprano en el proceso electoral. Faltan varios meses para que comiencen formalmente las campañas. En diversas entidades ni siquiera se han designado los candidatos, pero salvo que hubiera una sorpresa mayúscula, el dominio de Morena se va a reforzar a lo largo y ancho del país.

Cuando algunos analistas observaron estas cifras, no daban crédito. La razón es que, a su juicio, el gobierno de López Obrador ha tenido muy malos resultados en todos los ámbitos y por lo tanto consideran que no es creíble que la gente pueda votar por su partido en la forma en que la reflejan las encuestas.

La opinión respecto al mal desempeño del gobierno de AMLO la obtenemos de nuestros círculos cercanos. Sin embargo, el nivel de aprobación que sigue obteniendo el presidente, de 64 por ciento en la más reciente encuesta de El Financiero, no corresponde a esta creencia.

Algunos consideran que el respaldo a López Obrador proviene solo de los grupos clientelares, es decir, de aquellos que reciben recursos a través de programas sociales.

Si ese fuera el factor definitivo no se podrían explicar derrotas como la del PRI en 2018, pues hubo generosos programas sociales que igualmente fueron administrados con criterios clientelares a lo largo del sexenio.

La realidad es mucho más compleja y a veces choca con las creencias más generalizadas.

Existe una amplia capa de la población que respaldó a López Obrador en las elecciones de hace dos años y medio, con la esperanza de que lograra cambiar el sistema y permitiera mejores niveles de vida, acceso a la justicia, combate a la corrupción y mayores oportunidades para los ignorados por mucho tiempo.

Es cierto, los resultados objetivos, los datos de fuentes confiables, nos dicen que los resultados en esos terrenos han sido mayormente negativos.

Sin embargo, López Obrador sigue construyendo expectativas y esperanzas entre múltiples grupos, tan amplios que le alcanza para que Morena pueda arrasar en las elecciones estatales del próximo año.

El otro factor que debe tomarse en cuenta es la ausencia de contrincantes.

Si en los partidos opositores hubieran aparecido figuras políticas poderosas, con capacidad de comunicación, que lograran motivar a los electores, probablemente el balance sería diferente.

Sin embargo, cuando se observan las fuerzas políticas opositoras, se puede llegar a la conclusión de que, con esos rivales, es muy difícil que el partido de López Obrador pierda la partida.

Hasta ahora, el proceso de selección de los candidatos a las gobernaturas en Morena no ha generado el nivel de enojo que algunos esperaban entre los perdedores. Hay tensiones y fricciones en algunos estados, pero no se ha pasado a mayores.

Un escenario al que algunos apostaban era que lo sucedido en la disputa por la presidencia nacional de Morena en los meses pasados se repitiera muchas veces en la contienda por la elección de candidatos, lo cual de modo natural debilitaría a Morena. No ha ocurrido.

Tendremos que ver la evolución de las campañas, así como la trayectoria de fenómenos importantes como la pandemia y la crisis económica en los próximos meses para poder definir con mayor precisión cuál será el escenario posible a nivel del Congreso Federal.

Sin embargo, no veo que los partidos opositores estén haciendo el trabajo suficiente para poder tener una buena oportunidad de quitar la mayoría absoluta de la Cámara de Diputados a Morena.

Tal vez no se han dado cuenta que lo que suceda en junio de 2021 puede ser determinante no sólo para los próximos años sino quizás para las próximas décadas.

Una mayoría absoluta de Morena en la Cámara de Diputados podría conducir a la realización de un conjunto de reformas constitucionales y legales que generen la posibilidad de que la actual fuerza política en el gobierno pueda quedarse otros seis años y quizás mucho tiempo más.

Mientras los reclamos y enojos se queden en las redes sociales o en protestas callejeras que se diluyen al paso de las semanas y los meses, se puede configurar un escenario para que Morena se quede muchos años en el poder.

sábado, 19 de diciembre de 2020

 

2020, el año que vivimos peligrosamente

Katu Arkonada

https://www.jornada.com.mx/2020/12/19/opinion/022a1pol

Termina un año de crisis pandémica y comienza una larga marcha de vacunación y crisis económica, con el desempleo creciendo y la producción y el turismo descendiendo.

Pocas cosas positivas podemos escribir a modo de balance de este 2020. Quizá la principal sea que la grave crisis de salud asociada a la pandemia ha dejado en nuestras sociedades una reivindicación de la necesidad de la vuelta del Estado después del desmantelamiento neoliberal de lo público.

La pandemia que asola al mundo podemos calificarla, tomando la caracterización de los sociólogos Marcel Mauss y Norbert Elías, de hecho social total, la superposición de la estructura social y la estructura emotiva, en un hecho que pone en juego la totalidad de la sociedad y sus instituciones, y modifica tanto lo micro como lo macro de un mundo globalizado que ya estaba en crisis antes de 2020.

Pero de todo lo negativo, y más allá de lo evidente, la crisis de salud que ha dejado ya más de un millón y medio de muertos en el mundo es necesario subrayar el aumento de la desigualdad que nos deja la pandemia. Según Naciones Unidas (1), 142 millones de personas en América Latina, una cuarta parte de la población de la región se halla en riesgo de contraer Covid-19 por la falta de acceso al agua potable, el uso de combustibles nocivos dentro de los hogares, y la desnutrición. Al mismo tiempo un informe de Oxfam (2)2, señala que la fortuna de las 73 personas que en América Latina tienen más de mil millones de dólares ha crecido en más de 50 mil millones de dólares desde el comienzo de la pandemia.

A la crisis económica se le une un caos geopolítico sin ningún liderazgo regional ni mucho menos global (Naciones Unidas ni está ni se le espera), en un mundo donde no sólo se agota el modelo neoliberal como paradigma, sino incluso el concepto de democracia, un mundo donde crece la polarización y se da un auge de la ultraderecha ante la falta de propuestas desde la izquierda para salir de la crisis.

Y por si esto no fuera poco, las crisis previas a 2020 se siguen profundizando. El cambio climático es ya una realidad y si no hacemos algo pronto, estamos a punto de alcanzar el punto de no retorno y el calentamiento global hará que en no tantos años sea inviable vivir en una buena parte del planeta, comenzando por las costas, alrededor de las cuales vive 50 por ciento de la población del planeta. Pero no va a ser necesario esperar muchos años para ver grandes migraciones, que ya son una realidad en América Latina, África o Asia.

Es probable que ya no volvamos a la normalidad que conocíamos. La pandemia ha golpeado el modo de producción y nuestro sistema de vida en general. Hemos visto a lo largo de 2020 como el home office se instalaba en nuestras vidas, lo que acelera la revolución tecnológica y la implementación del 5G, pero también abre la puerta a que GAFA (Google, Apple, Facebook y Amazon) tengan mucha más presencia en nuestras vidas que el propio Estado.

Mientras tanto, en Estados Unidos se da un cambio de partido, que no de gobierno, pues van a seguir gobernando Wall Street y el complejo industrial-militar, y aunque va a continuar siendo la mayor potencia financiera y militar del mundo, dueño de los océanos (con flotas en cada uno de ellos) y del espacio, su hegemonía está en declive. El maquillaje es claro: un negro a cargo del Pentágono, una mujer dirigiendo la comunidad de inteligencia y un latino al frente de Seguridad Nacional. Pero la política seguirá siendo la misma, quizá con un pequeño y soft power maquillaje en los casos de Venezuela, y sobre todo, Cuba.

Pero el movimiento Black Lives Matters continúa ahí, latente, planteando sus demandas antirracistas, al igual que las revueltas antineoliberales y antipatriarcales (la ola verde feminista) que surcan América Latina y el Caribe.

Una región, nuestra América, que la Cepal calcula va a recuperar los niveles económicos prepandemia hasta 2024, y si el crecimiento se estanca, la mejora no se va a producir en toda la década que comenzamos. La propia Cepal reconoce que la contracción que sufrimos es la peor de los últimos 120 años.

Ante esto, sólo queda apostar por dejar lo más atrás posible el modelo de desarrollo neoliberal, e impulsar modelos de justicia social, ambiental y de género que nos permitan, junto con otro modelo de desarrollo, poder vivir la nueva normalidad del siglo XXI pospandemia.

 

1 Covid, hambre, pobreza y desigualdad: la combinación mortal que enfrenta América Latina https://news.un.org/ es/story/2020/07/1477571

2 Aumentan los milmillonarios de América Latina a medida que la región más desigual del mundo se hunde bajo el impacto del coronavirus https://www.oxfam.org/es/notas -prensa/aumentan-los-mil-millonarios-de-america -latina-medida-que-la-region-mas-desigual

viernes, 18 de diciembre de 2020

 

America’s Ongoing Imperial Scam

December 16, 2020

Biden ends speeches now with “God Bless the Troops,” writes Karen Kwiatkowski. He should respect their sacrifices with a more honorable foreign policy.

https://consortiumnews.com/2020/12/16/americas-ongoing-imperial-scam/

By Karen

Kwiatkowski
Special to Consortium News

One week after the most attention-demanding election of our lifetimes, another Veteran’s Day came and went.  For the occasion, presumed President-elect Joe Biden laid a wreath at the Korean War Memorial in Philadelphia; whilst yet-to-conceded incumbent President Donald Trump held a ceremony at Arlington National Cemetery. 

Both channeled and invoked the great reverence Americans still hold for veterans of the bygone Second World War and more complicated Korean conflagration.  Only some 300,000 of the men, and women, who fought in the former are still living.  No doubt we will continue to hear how many succumbed to Covid-19 in the past year, and whose fault that is. 

Yet, in his official statement, Biden added a personal touch — his son Beau’s service in Iraq — and a “personal commitment:” “I will never treat you or your families with anything less than the honor you deserve.”  If he really means it, rebalancing U.S. war-making authority and ditching the dated Second World War analogies would be a good start.

World War II remains the go-to conflict for commemoration almost 80 years after America entered the fray.  It marks the last time the U.S. Congress did its constitutional duty and actually declared war before sending America’s young men off to kill and die on foreign fields. 

All subsequent “wars,” from Korea and Vietnam to the Iraqs (1991, 2003, 2014), Somalia, Bosnia, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, Yemen, and a host of military deployments on every continent around the world were waged at the pleasure of the sitting president, amply funded by the Congress, yet conveniently never rose to the level of a declared war. 

Little Wars & Presidencies 

We should consider these wars linked to the presidents themselves, or — perhaps more accurately — to their executive staffs, and the Department of Defense.  War policy-making power has almost completely shifted from the people’s representatives (House and Senate) to unelected appointees often recruited from think tanks — these funded by an array of organizations interested not in peace, but in accessing tax dollars, and gaining revenues at home and abroad. 

Biden’s incoming national security team is chock-full of them.  War spending, even in the absence of any notable war, is so compelling that for years, a Congress often unable to come up with a budget ensured the flow stayed strong to the Pentagon — and its cousin, the CIA — through continuing resolutions.

So-called overseas contingency operations, or little wars have seen their funding go “off-book,” as the Pentagon budget now covers just its routine expenses — wars are paid for on top of that budget, so long as the Congress can be convinced by their Pentagon liaisons.  And they nearly always are.

This obscene spending for military weapons, training, gifts to allies, technology enhancement — for everything from cyberwar, surveillance, data collection, AI, robotics — as well as for standard “pocketbook” weapons systems like the F-35 fighter and aircraft carriers, represent the Military Industrial Complex’s (MIC) mainstay. 

Consider a disturbingly accurate recent diagnosis of the current situation:

“…the U.S. Presidents and their aides are quite aware of the current state of the US military: it is a military that simply cannot win even simple conflicts…a military whose Air Force spent absolutely obscene amounts of money to create a supposedly “5th generation” fighter which in many ways is inferior to US 4th generation aircraft!”

It is against this larded and incompetent backdrop — of economic dependencies for a war machine directed by men and women who’ve never fought a declared war and scant understanding of what defending the nation ought to look like — that Americans await an inbound president who now feels obliged to add the patriotic tick “May God protect our troops” at the tail end of speeches.

Empty Gestures

Veterans, Memorial, Independence, or even just Tuesdays — replete with military flyovers at football games amidst an age of pandemic — have become empty gestures.  VA hospitals across the country had to be dragged kicking and screaming into the 21st century, and it is there today that many of our Vietnam veterans — of another little war mainly designed to entertain Pentagon fantasies at their expense — rot, for lack of a better word. 

Ultimately, these sacrifices, all part of a larger Washingtonian game, hardy matter to anyone but Vietnam alumni’s wives, kids — and this generation’s numbers now also dwindle.

What purpose then, does obligatory national celebration — in prose or pageantry — of veterans actually serve in year 20 of intractable and hopeless wars?  Clearly, veterans and their families are the only ones who truly sacrificed anything.  Those negotiating massive defense contracts — including built-in clauses covering delays, flaws, and implicit corruption — won’t even sacrifice surplus profits for the good of the country. 

Money isn’t blood, and stock prices can’t compensate limbs (to the tune of 1,645 single or multiple amputee veterans between 9/11 and 2015). 

The war machine is largely about money (for select elites) and creating new and expanding markets (benefitting the same) — the modern veteran’s primary function is simply that of “patriotic” bait for the public.  In fact, trotting out idealized veterans rationalize and justify MIC-corruption — trading on the goodwill that most American have for those who served (even if the government they served was lying about why) is increasingly unworkable.

Military recruitment has long been a challenge, partly because Americans increasingly see through the systemic scam, and are left wondering whether it’s such a great deal after all.  Despite the Pentagon’s massive data collection efforts and widespread access to high school and college students, recruitment is becoming more and more difficult. 

he latest army and air force recruiting approach involves convincing economically-insecure parents to encourage their kids to get out of their basements, and pursue dreams of playing soldier in the woods or flying video game-like drones.  In an era where more young people live at home for longer, this approach may appeal to parents, but it’s also a tell. 

Despite repeated and routine public deference to veterans, the truth is out.  There are just too many truth bombs available from potential recruits’ family and friends; too much outrage at the increasingly exposed police militarization in America’s streets — many of their new hires practicing what they learned patrolling Baghdad or Kandahar, policing Baltimore and Kansas City. 

There’s scant solace in knowing top defense contractors rake in untold billions, whilst too many American families slip further through the cracks, unsure of whence their next thousand will come.  And here’s a truth uncomfortable for far too many privileged and polite liberals so ready for a quiet return to a Biden-induced normalcy: both Trumpism and left-leaning progressivism was partly fueled by that shared realization.

Our veterans, too, have a solid sense of this truth — a truth that’s often painful, embarrassing and sometimes shameful. The Pentagon has little intrinsic interest in helping veterans, except to the extent that veterans, individually or collectively, can both execute and justify profitable business-as-usual foreign policies — which are increasingly crass, contradictory, and unconstitutional affairs. 

To truly honor our troops and veterans, Biden’s bunch should be brutally honest about what Washingtonian “war” is and should respect the very real sacrifices of the “other 1 percent” who actually serve—by demanding a more honorable and restrained foreign policy.  That’s going to require more action than obligatory utterance, and admission of a final hard truth: 

The imperial scam we’ve kept calling a republic these past 70 years is collapsing, and it will take all of us — veteran and civilian alike — to ensure a soft landing.

Karen Kwiatkowski, Ph.D., is a farmer, teacher, and retired USAF lieutenant colonel, who spent years working in the Pentagon.  She was a notable critic and whistleblower in the run-up to the 2003 Iraq invasion.  Karen was featured in the acclaimed documentary, “Why We Fight” (2005), writes regularly for Lewrockwell.com and has had her work published in Salon, The American Conservative, and The Huffington Post, among others.  She is a senior fellow at the Eisenhower Media Network (EMN), an organization of independent veteran military and national security experts.

jueves, 17 de diciembre de 2020

 

Facing up to Israel’s destabilizing behavior

DECEMBER 2, 2020

Written by
Paul R. Pillar

https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2020/12/02/facing-up-to-israels-destabilizing-behavior/

Responsibility for the assassination of Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh is still officially a matter of speculation, but it is highly likely that Israel did it. Israel has the motive, the methods, and the moxie. It also has the record, including not only a string of murders of other Iranian nuclear scientists some eight years ago but also a more widely used killing machine that has made Israel the world’s leader in targeted assassinations.

The killing of Fakhrizadeh was not a blow for nuclear non-proliferation. The demise of no one individual will make a significant dent in Iran’s nuclear program. Fakhrizadeh’s work on a possible nuclear weapon took place in the past before Tehran suspended that work some 17 years ago. The knowledge on a shelf remains, even if this man does not.

The killing did not pre-empt an Iranian attack or any other untoward Iranian action, and instead is more likely to stimulate such an attack. Iran, which has no nuclear weapons and as a party to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty is committed never to acquire any, closed all possible paths to a bomb several years ago through the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the multilateral agreement that gutted Iran’s nuclear program and opened what remained of it too intrusive international monitoring.

The contrast with the state that killed Fakhrizadeh is stark. Israel, which is not a party to the NPT is generally believed to possess a sizable arsenal of nuclear weapons. It has acquired that stockpile clandestinely, closed off from any international scrutiny or regulatory regime, and with Israel never admitting what it has.

The recent assassination did not even serve a purpose comparable to, say, the extraterritorial rubout of a terrorist who will never see the inside of a courtroom and, it might be argued, can be eliminated as a threat in no other way. Instead, the assassination itself was an act of terrorism. It certainly meets the official definition that the State Department uses in compiling statistics on international terrorism, which is “premeditated, politically motivated violence perpetrated against non-combatant targets by sub-national groups or clandestine agents usually intended to influence an audience”.

Failure to acknowledge that reality while fulminating about terrorism in other contexts or at the hands of other actors represents a double standard. The double standard becomes all the clearer by imagining what the reaction would be if Iran or someone else had assassinated an Israeli nuclear scientist — or an American one.

The Netanyahu government’s evident objective — probably pursued with the encouragement of the lame-duck Trump administration, as part of its salting of the earth on its way out the door — is to subvert the Biden administration’s diplomacy with Iran and efforts to return to compliance with the JCPOA. The timing of the Fakhrizadeh assassination is too much of a coincidence to have merely reflected when an operational opportunity happened to arise.

A dangerous road ahead

The next phase in this story depends on the Iranian reaction. If the leadership in Tehran can resist Iranians’ understandable anger and desire for revenge, Netanyahu will at least have humiliated Iran and shown it to be weak. But his favored scenario would be for Iran to do something in retaliation that in turn could become the rationale for escalated military action against Iran by Israel and especially by the United States. The fact that President Trump has already looked into a possible attack on Iran must lead Netanyahu to conclude that he has a good chance of instigating just such a military confrontation, which would be his most effective way yet of pre-emptively trashing the incoming U.S. administration’s diplomacy.

Instigation and provocation of Iran already were part of an Israeli campaign before the Fakhrizadeh killing and before the U.S. election. A probable facet of that campaign was a series of unclaimed explosions in Iran this summer, which hit not only military-related and nuclear facilities but also other targets such as power plants and oil pipelines.

Netanyahu’s government has consistently promoted unending, unqualified hostility toward Iran aimed at keeping it forever ostracized, sanctioned, and loathed. This campaign of permanent confrontation keeps a potential regional rival weak and aims to keep Israel’s U.S. patron away from doing any diplomatic or other business with Tehran. Keeping Iran as a perpetual bête noire to be blamed for everything wrong in the Middle East helps to deflect blame for those wrongs from others, especially Israel. The value to Netanyahu’s government of the bête noire as an all-purpose distraction is reflected in how often that government responds to unwelcome attention to its own conduct by proclaiming, “But the real problem in our region is Iran…”

Partly, but by no means wholly, because of this Israeli demonization campaign, Iran’s conduct routinely gets discussed in the United States in shorthand terms that refer to Tehran’s “malign” or “destabilizing” behavior and support for terrorism. The shorthand obscures inattention to exactly what Iran has been doing and why it does it. It leaves unsaid that most of what Iran does in the region in reaction to what others do — including in response to what Israel has done with terrorism or other destructive action.

By any objective measure of destabilizing behavior, Israel in recent times has been doing at least as much as Iran to destabilize the Middle East, and probably more. This is true of terrorism, sabotage, and other clandestine operations, as illustrated most recently by the assassination of Fakhrizadeh.

It is true of the use of violent proxies, which in Israel’s case has included an Iranian cult/terrorist group that has American blood on its hands. It is true of aggressive military action across international borders — including Israel’s current sustained campaign of aerial assaults in Syria — which is much different from a consensual relationship in which military assistance is given in support of, and in alliance with, an incumbent government.

And it certainly is true when looking at who is urging a return to diplomacy to settle differences, and who instead are subverting diplomacy and promoting confrontation, even to the point of trying to trigger a new war.

A policy challenge for the new administration

All this is grim reality for the incoming Biden administration as it shapes its relationship with Israel. The smart money in Washington is betting against Biden spending much of his precious political capital in trying to make progress in resolving the decades-old Israeli-Palestinian conflict. That’s too bad for the Palestinians and for justice and human rights, but it also is too bad for regional stability, especially given how Israel’s subjugation of the Palestinians has long been a prime motivator for extremism and terrorism.

The destabilization goes well beyond the Palestinian conflict, however, and includes the Israeli terrorism, sabotage, and provocations aimed at Iran. The grimmest of the grim realities are that the current government of Israel is not only actively trying to subvert the new administration’s foreign policy but also is trying to drag the United States into a new Middle East war.

That is an unfriendly act. The Biden administration somehow will have to take that into account in shaping a bilateral relationship that has been characterized — even before the extreme obeisance toward Israel of the Trump administration — by protective vetoes in the U.N. Security Council and $3.8 billion annually in unrestricted aid. The Biden people can start by being honest — consistent with the president-elect’s pledge of truthfulness — about the sources of instability in the Middle East.