UNDOCUMENTED MIGRATION TO MEXICO
The arrival of Donald Trump to the presidency of the
United States for the second time has once again placed Mexico as one of his
main concerns in the areas of migration, drug trafficking and trade.
Trump has indicated that, from his first day in the
White House, his administration will begin “massive deportations” of migrants
who entered the country illegally.
According to the Department of Homeland Security of
the Biden administration, at least 11 million undocumented migrants entered the
United States until 2022.
But Donald Trump and his main collaborators on the
immigration issue, consider that the “real” figure could be up to 22 million
people.
For now, Tom Homan, who has been appointed as the next
“border czar” of the new administration, has indicated that up to one million
illegal migrants considered dangerous, for having committed crimes within the
United States, will be the first to be expelled.
In recent days, Claudia Sheinbaum's government has
already faced Trump's way of "negotiating," having threatened Mexico
and Canada with imposing 25% tariffs on all export products from both countries
if they do not stop the flow of fentanyl and illegal migrants to the United
States.
Sheinbaum, after sending a letter to Trump pointing
out that the arrival of migrants at the border between the two countries had
decreased by up to 75% in the last year, spoke by phone with Trump, explaining
how the Mexican authorities are in charge of “dispersing” the migrant caravans
(some of the migrants are granted permits to remain in Mexico and look for
work; others, who refuse, are returned to their countries of origin).
However, Trump gave a different version, pointing out
that Sheinbaum assured him that she would “seal” the southern border of Mexico
and that she would “permanently” stop the migrant caravans.
Obviously, each president interpreted the phone call
in his own way, and communicated it thus to their respective national
audiences, to strengthen their position on this issue.
What is a fact is that the undocumented or, as defined
by the Mexican immigration authorities, “irregular” entry of migrants into
Mexican territory has increased significantly in the last year.
According to the “2024 Summary of Migration
Statistics” of the Ministry of the Interior[1]:
“Events of People in Irregular Migration Situation in
Mexico”
For the period January-August:
|
2023 |
398,991 |
|
|
2024 |
925,085 |
|
The variation is huge for the same period of 2023 and
2024.
This means that migrants, the social organizations
that support them, and organized crime involved in human trafficking, increased
migration in anticipation of Donald Trump's arrival to the presidency, trying
to get as many people as possible to the United States.
However, everything seems to indicate that most of
these migrants have not crossed over to the United States, given that the
Department of Homeland Security has reported that[2]:
- In
the financial year from October 2023 to September 2024, there were 1.44
million reported border encounters as of June 2024. However, there have
been sharp decreases in encounters with citizens of other countries:
- Venezuela: Encounters with citizens of Venezuela
fell 99% from December 2023 to August 2024.
- Cuba: Encounters with citizens of Cuba fell 98%
from December 2023 to August 2024.
- Haiti: Encounters with citizens of Haiti fell
97% from December 2023 to August 2024.
- Nicaragua: Encounters with citizens of Nicaragua
fell 96% from December 2023 to August 2024.
- Peru: Encounters with citizens of Peru fell 95%
from December 2023 to August 2024.
- Ecuador: Encounters with citizens of Ecuador fell
84% from December 2023 to August 2024.
- Colombia: Encounters with citizens of Colombia fell
80% from December 2023 to August 2024.
- China: Encounters with citizens of China fell
75% from December 2023 to August 2024.
Removals and returns
DHS completed over 700,000 removals and returns in the
fiscal year 2024, which is more than any prior fiscal year since 2010.
Migrant gotaways
The estimated number of migrant gotaways, or people
who crossed the border without encountering CBP, decreased approximately 60%
from FY 2023 to FY 2024.
Hence, the actions that the Biden administration has
taken to stop the flow of migrants, with the collaboration of the Mexican
government, have begun to yield results.
But this is causing most of these migrants to be
stranded in Mexico, which will surely intensify with the deportations carried
out by the Trump administration, starting in January 2025.
There is no policy to address what could become a
serious humanitarian crisis in Mexico, by the Sheinbaum government, which, as
it seems, will comply with all of Trump's demands and requests, without asking
for anything in return.
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