Inside Mexico's massive migrant crackdown

Marina E. Franco (Noticias Telemundo for Axios)

https://www.axios.com/2024/12/10/mexico-migrant-crackdown-trump-tariffs-threat?

Mexico has intercepted nearly 1 million migrants this year — a record high as it has ramped up policies that reduce migration to the U.S.

Why it matters: President-elect Trump has threatened to impose tariffs that he says would force the country to "act" to stop the flow of migrants.

• But Mexico has been increasingly doing just that — though some experts say it's not a viable long-term fix for the problem of unauthorized immigration to the U.S.

Case in point: While interceptions in Mexico have doubled in a year, in the U.S. they have gone down by a quarter.

What they're saying: "Mexico has been very active and served as a buffer between the United States and at least Central America — but, really, almost between the United States and the rest of the world," says Carin Zissis, a visiting fellow at the Wilson Center and editor-in-chief of the Americas Society/Council of the Americas Online.

• Data from Mexico's Interior Ministry shows encounters with thousands of people from as far away as Senegal, India and other parts of Africa and Asia.
• "A series of agreements with the U.S. and policies have made Mexico become essentially the waiting room" for migrants originally headed to the U.S., says Luciana Gandini, who coordinates a seminar on displacement, migration and repatriation at Mexico's National Autonomous University (UNAM).

By the numbers: The number of encounters in Mexico of people without visas or migration permits reached about 925,000 cases from January through August of this year, per the most recent update to the Interior Ministry's migration data hub. Some of the migrants were removed from Mexico, while others were placed in shelters, though it's unclear how many.

• This year's number of encounters is more than double the number for all of 2023, which had already set a record. Mexican authorities had an average of 115,000 migrant encounters per month through August.
• During Trump's first term, Mexico recorded an average of about 10,000 migrant encounters per month. There were about 33,000 a month during Biden's first two years in office.
• Meanwhile, the U.S. Border Patrol registered about 1.5 million encounters in fiscal year 2024, which ended in September, per CBP data — 25% fewer than in the previous fiscal year.

State of play: The "buffer" Mexico offers the U.S. derives from the deployment of the National Guard — which was created in 2019 and is under military control — to heavily police the border with Guatemala.

• The National Guard turns back some people at Mexico's southern border, and in collaboration with the National Migration Institute detains or transfers others to shelters and processing stations in southern Mexico.

Mexican authorities have also increasingly broken up migrant caravans headed to the U.S.

• Much of that is accomplished with what Gandini calls a "chutes and ladders" approach — people heading to the north in caravans or trains are intercepted by authorities and talked into getting bused to southern states for processing.
• "That scatters people about, making it harder for them in terms of time, money and safety to get back on the road towards the U.S.," Gandini says.

Yes, but: Mexico tamping down on migration is not a long-term solution to stemming migration to the U.S., experts say.

• The country's efforts could be stymied if Trump's plans for mass deportations result in large numbers of Mexicans and others are sent south of the border, overwhelming Mexico's resources.

The bottom line: Trying to stop people at the border does not address the reasons that drive people to emigrate.

• Safety issues have become more acute in the past few years in countries like Ecuador, while in Venezuela people continue to flee as a political crisis and hyperinflation rage on.
• Nicaragua's become even more autocratic this year, and recent blackouts in Cuba illustrate how difficult living there is for many.
• "People have clearly heard about the dangers that they face and still make the journey — they remain willing to take that risk," Zissis says.