Meatpacking industry supports Trump but braces for deportation fallout
Dec 17, 2024
Many in the meatpacking
industry were happy to see Donald Trump reelected — but are also fearful it
won't be able to operate without the workers he may try to deport.
Why it
matters: Meatpacking, more
than almost any other industry in this country, relies on foreign-born labor,
whether documented or not. It would face critical challenges if those workers
disappeared due to mass deportation.
- Yet meat-related interests overwhelmingly
supported Trump financially in 2024, knowing the potential risks to their
business.
The big
picture: Meatpacking is
dangerous and difficult to staff even in the best circumstances.
- "If you ask anybody on the packing side of
things, going back before COVID … no one's going to tell you there's a
bigger challenge in the meat supply chain than labor," Ethan Lane,
vice president of government affairs for the National Cattlemen's Beef
Association, tells Axios.
Zoom in: One oft-cited
estimate suggests
that 30% to 50% of all laborers in the meatpacking industry are undocumented.
Producers will dispute that, but no one disagrees with the industry relies on
migrant labor.
- "This is a decision by the industry. It's a
wink and a nod — this is how they can keep labor costs down," says
Debbie Berkowitz, a fellow at the Kalmanovitz Initiative at Georgetown and
former OSHA chief of staff.
- Some, like the NC Pork Council, deny that their
producers use undocumented labor. But they also concede labor shortages
plague the industry and point to a need for immigration reform to expand
visas for laborers.
- The pandemic further exposed how immigrant labor
has been used to sustain the industry, with high-profile
COVID outbreaks highlighting
their vulnerability and the critical role they play.
Zoom out: Trump's team has said their deportation program would
(first) target criminals (though an Axios review found that to be a relatively small number.)
- The transition, asked about any plans for
undocumented meatpacking workers, reiterated its intent to target
"illegal criminals, drug dealers, and human traffickers" in a
statement to Axios.
But those who work with undocumented laborers say the mere sight of
deportations can have a domino effect.
- "Many of the people in my book, they were or
are undocumented, and even if they now have residency … they have family
who are undocumented and they're scared," says Alice Driver, whose
book "Life and
Death of the American Worker" examines the lives of undocumented
meatpacking workers.
- Drivers and others say the specter of
deportations could be enough to tip the industry into crisis, as workers
flee or stop showing up to work, even if plants aren't being raided.
- If packing plants are short of labor, that raises
another concern: the availability and price of meat.
All-time high prices
Zoom out: Prices for staple meats are already at or near 20-year
highs, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Price
Index data.
- A pound of fresh, whole chicken that cost $1.36
in Feb. 2020 cost $2.08 last month (+53%), while a pound of 100% ground
chuck rose from $4.03 to $5.61 (+39%).
- That's despite most packing and slaughter jobs
paying less than $20 an hour, on average, per government data. (The industry says wages
are rising, however.)
Context: Trump's tariff plans also threaten to impact crucial
export revenue.
- Beef and pork businesses rely on revenue from
exports of animal products that aren't part of the American diet but sell
well overseas.
- Roy Lee Lindsey, CEO of the NC Pork Council,
tells Axios that export value makes up about a third of the price farmers
get for hogs today.
Even knowing the
threat to their
business, the industry got behind Trump.
- Donations to Trump from the livestock industry in
the 2024 cycle were nearly double the donations to Kamala Harris, according
to OpenSecrets.org data.
- The donors were a broad mix, from large industry
trade groups to individual ranches and farms.
Broken communities
Mass deportations also threaten to break up communities that have
spent decades building tight-knit bonds through shared workplaces.
- For example: A JBS meatpacking facility in
Greeley, Colorado, employs about 4% of the town.
- "The problem within the industry is that
most packing facilities …. build these types of plants in very
conservative, rural communities. I don't know that we're going to have a
lot of friends in Weld County," says Kim Cordova, president of UFCW
Local 7, representing workers at the plant.
The bottom
line: Everyone sees the
problem coming, but no one knows what will happen.
- "I can't imagine that the meatpacking industry is going to be behind this, behind what Trump does in a business sense," Driver says. "It's going to hit companies hard, it's going to hit consumers hard, because let's find out who's going to take on that work?
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