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miércoles, 16 de noviembre de 2022

Ben Gvir demands the death penalty for Palestinians as a condition to join Netanyahu’s govt

The extremist MK wants capital punishment for Palestinians found guilty of killing Israelis

By News Desk- November 15, 2022

https://thecradle.co/Article/News/18341

On 15 November, a far-right Israeli member of the Knesset (MK) Itamar Ben Gvir sought to implement the death penalty for Palestinians guilty of killing Israelis. He has set this as a condition for his faction to join former Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition government.

According to local reports, the death penalty for Palestinians is one of Ben Gvir’s election campaign pledges. However, according to local reports, Netanyahu’s Likud party is not enthusiastic about the condition.

Ben Gvir is seeking three ministerial portfolios for his party, including the Ministry of Education, the Ministry of Religious Services, and the Ministry of Internal Security, which oversees prison services and the national police force. 

The far-right Religious Zionist party leader, Bezalel Smotrich, has intensified his push to be named Israel’s next defense minister.

Smotrich leads the party alongside Ben Gvir and allegedly met with retired significant generals of the Israeli army and religious Zionist Rabbis Chaim Druckman and Yaakov Ariel.

Following this meeting, the Religious Zionist party issued a statement on 14 November, claiming the rabbis backed Smotrich’s demand to become defense minister and urged him “to firmly and uncompromisingly insist” on that demand “to strengthen Israel’s security and … to prevent a Palestinian state.”

According to the WAFA news agency, 4,700 Palestinians are currently being held in Israeli prisons, including 32 women and 175 minors, as well as over 200 chronically ill prisoners. Eight prisoners are almost entirely paralyzed, and hundreds are held without charge or trial.

A few days prior, the US Department of State spokesman, Ned Price, condemned Ben Gvir’s participation in the Israeli government for his involvement in commemorating the late rabbi Meir Kahane.

“Celebrating the legacy of a terrorist organization is abhorrent. There is no other word for it. It is abhorrent,” said Price in a press conference late on 10 November.

He added that “we remain concerned, as we said before, by the legacy of Kahane Chai,” a US-born Israeli who was convicted for the murder of Soviet officers and conspiring to bomb the Iraqi diplomatic mission in Washington.

On 10 November, Israeli President Isaac Herzog was heard saying, “you have a partner who the entire world around us is worried about. I have also said this to him,” about Ben Gvir, during political consultations with the ultra-Orthodox Shas party.

Ben Gvir was considered “too dangerous to join the army at the age of 18,” in fear of his activism. He was also excluded from a partnership with previous Israeli prime minister Naftali Bennett for having a photo of Baruch Goldstein in his office.

Due to his track record, if Netanyahu agrees to grant Ben Gvir the Ministry of Public Security – which oversees the Israeli Police and prison service – he will influence the lives of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians, and gain control of the Al-Aqsa compound, to which he has long denied any Islamic connection. 

martes, 15 de noviembre de 2022

Why the War Party is the real winner of the midterms

Arms makers pay big money to make sure that no matter what party is in power, lawmakers like these will be running the show.

NOVEMBER 14, 2022

Written by
Connor Echols

https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2022/11/14/arms-makers-win-big-after-stacking-the-deck-with-military-industrial-candidates/

Despite an underwhelming performance in the midterm elections, Republicans appear poised to take back the House for the first time since 2016. The shift has the potential to impact a wide range of policies and will undoubtedly lead to a series of hearings on everything from the Afghanistan withdrawal to Hunter Biden’s business dealings. 

But when it comes to defense spending, there’s little reason to think that GOP leaders will rock the boat.

To understand why one just has to take a quick look at two of the most influential defense policy roles in the House: the heads of the committees that oversee spending and the armed services. The Republicans who are expected to take on these roles next year both have strong incentives to keep Pentagon spending high.

Take Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Ala.), who will likely succeed Rep. Adam Smith (D-Wash.) as the chair of the House Armed Services Committee. Rogers has been a leading proponent of a push to increase defense spending purportedly because of historically high inflation rates, despite the Pentagon’s insistence that its own budget request had already taken the economic climate into account.

He’s also received over $400,000 from arms makers this cycle, making him the single largest recipient of defense industry campaign donations in the 2022 cycle, according to Open Secrets. And Rogers’ district contains parts of Calhoun and Talladega counties, which together got over $200 million in defense money last year.

Of course, Rogers is only slightly more hawkish than his Democratic predecessor, who banked more than $300,000 from defense primes this year and happens to hail from a district that got $8.5 billion in defense spending in 2021. But the difference could be a bit bigger when it comes to the Appropriations Committee, which is currently led by self-described progressive Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.).

Despite having relatively little defense money go to her district, DeLauro has long been a champion of keeping military funding high. As her website makes clear, her main foreign policy priority is guaranteeing that defense spending keeps flowing to her home state, even if that means continuing to fund controversial, expensive programs like the F-35.

“Rosa has always supported defense programs that maintain jobs in Connecticut, including the Black Hawk, Marine One Presidential, Combat Rescue, and CH-53K heavy-lift helicopter programs, as well as the procurement of engines for the C-17, F-22, F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, and other aircraft,” her site explains. “Rosa [has] been an advocate for the Joint Strike Fighter primary engine, with testing and assembly of that engine taking place in Middletown, and played a lead role in terminating the alternate engine program.”

Her most likely successor is Rep. Kay Granger (R-Texas). Granger is a vocal supporter of the F-35 and the notoriously dangerous V-22 Osprey, which she says “are integral to our national security and play a vital role in our military’s offensive and defensive strategies.” Her campaign also raked in over $200,000 from defense companies, and her district contains parts of Tarrant County, which received more than $12 billion in military spending last year.

In total, 15 of the top 16 recipients of defense industry campaign funds in the House are members of one or both of these two committees. The only exception to that rule is Rep. Steve Scalise (R-La.), who is the odds-on favorite to take over as majority whip in the new Congress.

And those campaign investments are just the tip of the iceberg. According to Open Secrets, defense contractors have already spent more than $100 million on lobbying efforts in just the first three quarters of 2022, and that number will only continue to rise as arms makers make their final push to increase next year’s defense budget.

Unfortunately for the public, there is a significant risk that it will be locked out of debates over the impacts of those investments. As Bloomberg recently reported, the House and Senate Armed Services Committees have begun negotiating behind closed doors on next year’s National Defense Authorization Act, which “could be taken up in the House and Senate without amendments.”

In other words, lawmakers are set to scrap the defense authorization bill that the HASC already debated, amended, and managed to pass through the House in favor of one that has never been subject to public scrutiny — the same thing that happened last year’s NDAA. 

Given the sheer size of defense policy bills, watchdogs will be hard-pressed to sift through the next one for potentially wasteful line items before it becomes law. But maybe that’s the point.

Written by

 LA DISPUTA POR LA NACIÓN

Esa parece ser la esencia del conflicto entre el presidente López Obrador (AMLO) y los partidos de oposición y sectores sociales que rechazan su pretendida “Cuarta Transformación”, que va dirigida primordialmente a quitar el poder político a los grupos que lo detentaron durante tres décadas y media, durante el llamado “período neoliberal” (1982-2018).

Y no es que AMLO esté modificando profundamente el modelo económico implantado en el país por las élites tecnocráticas-empresariales que lo gobernaron durante 36 años, ya que la pieza fundamental de dicho modelo, es decir, la apertura indiscriminada de la economía mexicana a los flujos comerciales y de inversión del mundo, pero principalmente desde Estados Unidos, como lo es el tratado de libre comercio con ese país y con Canadá, ha sido avalado y ratificado por el actual gobierno; aún con las modificaciones, todavía más favorables hacia Estados Unidos, que implicaron la firma del nuevo tratado T-MEC (USMCA por sus siglas en inglés).

Asimismo, el gobierno de AMLO está comprometido a aplicar medidas de disciplina fiscal y austeridad presupuestal que siempre ha exigido el Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI) a economías “emergentes” como la mexicana (algo que por supuesto no exige a las economías desarrolladas de Occidente); y de la misma forma, AMLO ha mantenido y respetado la autonomía del banco central, pieza clave de todo el entramado de políticas neoliberales.

AMLO se la pasa demonizando, atacando y descalificando a las élites “conservadoras” que no están a favor de su gobierno, señalándolas incluso de ser racistas, clasistas, discriminadoras, e incluso las ha equiparado al fascismo y al nazismo (así como a todos aquellos que no avalen su gobierno); pero la realidad es que el presidente mexicano sólo insulta a las élites y clases medias que no lo apoyan. Esto es, su divisa es “estás conmigo, o contra mí”. No está contra una clase social o grupo político determinado; está contra quienes no se rinden a su poder.

Y esto se ha hecho evidente en la medida en que los oligarcas que se beneficiaron durante el período neoliberal se sometan a las órdenes, políticas públicas y a la narrativa del presidente, como por ejemplo el hombre más rico de México, Carlos Slim; pues en ese momento dejan de ser unos “conservadores” que sólo buscan mantener sus privilegios y que defienden la corrupción o que son unos hipócritas, y por arte de magia se convierten en empresarios nacionalistas, que se han ganado su dinero con trabajo e iniciativa, y son bienvenidos a la “Cuarta Transformación”.

Lo mismo ha sucedido con los políticos del viejo partido hegemónico del país, el Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI), que ahora están con el presidente y su partido Movimiento de Regeneración Nacional (Morena); su pasado corrupto y de apoyo a políticas depredadoras queda olvidado; incluso son recompensados con embajadas, consulados o al menos, con la no persecución judicial por sus latrocinios en los puestos públicos que hubieren ocupado (el caso más significativo es el de los gobernadores, que “no metieron las manos” en sus entidades, para así permitir el triunfo de los candidatos de Morena).

De ahí que toda la narrativa presidencial de que él defiende al pueblo y sus opositores son un grupo de corruptos, racistas, ventajosos, etc. no se sostiene en los hechos.

De lo que se trata es de ejercer presión sobre los grupos de poder político y económico del país, para que definitivamente abandonen la lucha por el poder para ellos, acepten que el poder lo tiene AMLO y su partido Morena, y en esa medida no habrá mayor persecución judicial por ningún motivo; por el contrario, hasta alguna recompensa en puestos públicos para los políticos; y en contratos y concesiones para los empresarios, les puede estar esperando.

Es una descarnada lucha por el poder, que no tiene que ver nada con el bienestar del pueblo, ni con la solución de los graves problemas que sigue acumulando este país.

Así, AMLO cuenta con el tremendo poder que le da un presupuesto público mayúsculo, con el que puede comprar voluntades, ya sea a través de programas de ayuda directa a 25 millones de personas, que se han convertido en clientes de su gobierno y de su partido; ya sea con concesiones y contratos para los grandes empresarios que decidan apoyarlo; y ya sea con puestos públicos y/o perdón para sus múltiples latrocinios a los miembros de la subclase política mexicana que se pasen a su bando.

No hay aquí una disputa entre proyectos de nación distintos, por más que algunas políticas públicas de AMLO se desvíen un poco de la línea neoliberal, como la energética, que muy pronto volverá al carril que conviene a las trasnacionales estadounidenses y europeas, ante las amenazas de serias sanciones comerciales en caso de que AMLO insista en su posición actual.

Es una lucha entre grupos político-económico-criminales, que buscan quedarse con la mayor parte del poder en México; y si bien en las décadas pasadas estos grupos eran dirigidos por una clase tecnocrática-empresarial que explotaba en su favor las riquezas del país; ahora está en la cúpula un grupo político, que en esencia está haciendo lo mismo, pero con un discurso distinto, más nacionalista; con una política ya no sólo asistencialista, en materia social, sino fundada en gran cantidad de recursos económicos dirigidos a una parte de la sociedad mexicana que conforma los niveles sociales medios bajos y bajos, para convertirla en cliente permanente del gobierno y de su coalición gobernante (sin que ello implique que salgan de la pobreza); en la amenaza de sanciones (el garrote), pero también de premios (la zanahoria) para grupos políticos, económicos y criminales que deseen aliarse a la nueva coalición gobernante; todo ello con objeto de conformar un poder hegemónico, como el que en su momento tuvo el PRI durante 71 años, al que no le puedan disputar el poder, porque concentra la mayor parte de él, y que como antaño, sea el presidente de la República el gran concertador y mediador de los posibles conflictos; el gran repartidor de bienes y favores, y el último juez que decide el destino del país.

lunes, 14 de noviembre de 2022

Congressional Amendment Opens Floodgates for War Profiteers and a Major Ground War on Russia

by Medea Benjamin and Nicolas J. S. Davies Posted on November 14, 2022

https://original.antiwar.com/mbenjamin/2022/11/13/congressional-amendment-opens-floodgates-for-war-profiteers-and-a-major-ground-war-on-russia/

If the powerful leaders of the Senate Armed Services Committee, Senators Jack Reed (D) and Jim Inhofe (R), have their way, Congress will soon invoke wartime emergency powers to build up even greater stockpiles of Pentagon weapons. The amendment is supposedly designed to facilitate replenishing the weapons the United States has sent to Ukraine, but a look at the wish list contemplated in this amendment reveals a different story.

Reed and Inhofe’s idea is to tuck their wartime amendment into the FY2023 National Defense Appropriation Act (NDAA) that will be passed during the lame-duck session before the end of the year. The amendment sailed through the Armed Services Committee in mid-October and, if it becomes law, the Department of Defense will be allowed to lock in multi-year contracts and award non-competitive contracts to arms manufacturers for Ukraine-related weapons.

If the Reed/Inhofe amendment is really aimed at replenishing the Pentagon’s supplies, then why do the quantities in its wish list vastly surpass those sent to Ukraine?

Let’s do the comparison:

  • The current star of U.S. military aid to Ukraine is Lockheed Martin’s HIMARS rocket system, the same weapon US Marines used to help reduce much of Mosul, Iraq’s second-largest city, to rubble in 2017. The US has only sent 38 HIMARS systems to Ukraine, but Senators Reed and Inhofe plan to "reorder" 700 of them, with 100,000 rockets, which could cost up to $4 billion.
  • Another artillery weapon provided to Ukraine is the M777 155 mm howitzer. To "replace" the 142 M777s sent to Ukraine, the senators plan to order 1,000 of them, at an estimated cost of $3.7 billion, from BAE Systems.
  • HIMARS launchers can also fire Lockheed Martin’s long-range (up to 190 miles) MGM-140 ATACMS missiles, which the US has not sent to Ukraine. In fact, the US has only ever fired 560 of them, mostly in Iraq in 2003. The even longer-range "Precision Strike Missile," formerly prohibited under the INF Treaty renounced by Trump, will start replacing the ATACMS in 2023, yet the Reed-Inhofe Amendment would buy 6,000 ATACMS, 10 times more than the US has ever used, at an estimated cost of $600 million.
  • Reed and Inhofe plan to buy 20,000 Stinger anti-aircraft missiles from Raytheon. But Congress already spent $340 million for 2,800 Stingers to replace the 1,400 sent to Ukraine. Reed and Inhofe’s amendment will "re-replenish" the Pentagon’s stocks 14 times over, which could cost $2.4 billion.
  • The United States has supplied Ukraine with only two Harpoon anti-ship missile systems – already a provocative escalation – but the amendment includes 1,000 Boeing Harpoon missiles (at about $1.4 billion) and 800 newer Kongsberg Naval Strike Missiles (about $1.8 billion), the Pentagon’s replacement for the Harpoon.
  • The Patriot air defense system is another weapon the US has not sent to Ukraine because each system can cost a billion dollars and the basic training course for technicians to maintain and repair it takes more than a year to complete. And yet the Inhofe-Reed wish list includes 10,000 Patriot missiles, plus launchers, which could add up to $30 billion.

ATACMS, Harpoons, and Stingers are all weapons the Pentagon was already phasing out, so why spend billions of dollars to buy thousands of them now? What is this really all about? Is this amendment a particularly egregious example of war profiteering by the military-industrial-Congressional complex? Or is the United States really preparing to fight a major ground war against Russia?

Our best judgment is that both are true.

Looking at the weapons list, military analyst and retired Marine Colonel Mark Cancian noted: "This isn’t replacing what we’ve given [Ukraine]. It’s building stockpiles for a major ground war [with Russia] in the future. This is not the list you would use for China. For China, we’d have a very different list."

President Biden says he will not send US troops to fight Russia because that would be World War III. But the longer the war goes on and the more it escalates, the more it becomes clear that US forces are directly involved in many aspects of the war: helping to plan Ukrainian operations; providing satellite-based intelligence; waging cyber warfare, and operating covertly inside Ukraine as special operations forces and CIA paramilitaries. Now Russia has accused British special operations forces of direct roles in a maritime drone attack on Sevastopol and the destruction of the Nord Stream gas pipelines.

As US involvement in the war has escalated despite Biden’s broken promises, the Pentagon must have drawn up contingency plans for a full-scale war between the United States and Russia. If those plans are ever executed, and if they do not immediately trigger a world-ending nuclear war, they will require vast quantities of specific weapons, and that is the purpose of the Reed-Inhofe stockpiles.

At the same time, the amendment seems to respond to complaints by the weapons manufacturers that the Pentagon was "moving too slowly" in spending the vast sums appropriated for Ukraine. While over $20 billion has been allocated for weapons, contracts to actually buy weapons for Ukraine and replace the ones sent there so far totaled only $2.7 billion by early November.

So the expected arms sales bonanza had not yet materialized, and the weapons makers were getting impatient. With the rest of the world increasingly calling for diplomatic negotiations, if Congress didn’t get moving, the war might be over before the arms makers’ much-anticipated jackpot ever arrived.

Mark Cancian explained to DefenseNews, "We’ve been hearing from industry when we talk to them about this issue, that they want to see a demand signal."

When the Reed-Inhofe Amendment sailed through committee in mid-October, it was clearly the "demand signal" the merchants of death were looking for. The stock prices of Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, and General Dynamics took off like antiaircraft missiles, exploding to all-time highs by the end of the month.

Julia Gledhill, an analyst at the Project on Government Oversight, decried the wartime emergency provisions in the amendment, saying it "further deteriorates already weak guardrails in place to prevent corporate price gouging of the military."

Opening the doors to multi-year, non-competitive, multi-billion dollar military contracts shows how the American people are trapped in a vicious spiral of war and military spending. Each new war becomes a pretext for further increases in military spending, much of it unrelated to the current war that provides cover for the increase. Military budget analyst Carl Conetta demonstrated (see Executive Summary) in 2010, after years of war in Afghanistan and Iraq, that "those operations account(ed) for only 52% of the surge" in US military spending during that period.

Andrew Lautz of the National Taxpayers’ Union now calculates that the base Pentagon budget will exceed $1 trillion per year by 2027, five years earlier than projected by the Congressional Budget Office. But if we factor in at least $230 billion per year in military-related costs in the budgets of other departments, like Energy (for nuclear weapons), Veterans Affairs, Homeland Security, Justice (FBI cybersecurity), and State, and national insecurity spending has already hit the trillion dollars per year mark, gobbling up two-thirds of annual discretionary spending.

America’s exorbitant investment in each new generation of weapons makes it nearly impossible for politicians of either party to recognize, let alone admit to the public, that American weapons and wars have been the cause of many of the world’s problems, not the solution, and that they cannot solve the latest foreign policy crisis either.

Senators Reed and Inhofe will defend their amendment as a prudent step to deter and prepare for a Russian escalation of the war, but the spiral of escalation we are locked into is not one-sided. It is the result of escalatory actions by both sides, and the huge arms buildup authorized by this amendment is a dangerously provocative escalation by the US side that will increase the danger of the World War that President Biden has promised to avoid

After the catastrophic wars and ballooning US military budgets of the past 25 years, we should be wise by now to the escalatory nature of the vicious spiral in which we are caught. And after flirting with Armageddon for 45 years in the last Cold War, we should also be wise to the existential danger of engaging in this kind of brinkmanship with nuclear-armed Russia. So, if we are wise, we will oppose the Reed/Inhofe Amendment.

Medea Benjamin and Nicolas J. S. Davies are the authors of War in Ukraine: Making Sense of a Senseless Conflictavailable from OR Books in November 2022.

Medea Benjamin is the cofounder of CODEPINK for Peace, and the author of several books, including Inside Iran: The Real History and Politics of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Nicolas J. S. Davies is an independent journalist, a researcher with CODEPINK, and the author of Blood on Our Hands: The American Invasion and Destruction of Iraq.

domingo, 13 de noviembre de 2022

 Rewiring Eurasia: Mr. Patrushev Goes to Tehran

PEPE ESCOBAR • NOVEMBER 10, 2022

https://www.unz.com/pescobar/rewiring-eurasia-mr-patrushev-goes-to-tehran/

Two guys are hanging out in a cozy room in Tehran with a tantalizing new map of the world in the background.

Nothing to see here? On the contrary. These two Eurasian security giants are no less than the – unusually relaxed – Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev and Ali Shamkhani, the Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council.

And why are they so relaxed? Because the future prospects revolving around the main theme of their conversation – the Russia-Iran strategic partnership – could not be more exciting.

This was a very serious business affair: an official visit, at the invitation of Shamkhani.

Patrushev was in Tehran on the exact same day that Russian Minister of Defense Sergey Shoigu – following a recommendation from General Sergey Surovikin, the overall commander of the Special Military Operation – ordered a Russian retreat from Kherson.

Patrushev knew it for days – so he had no problem stepping on a plane to take care of business in Tehran. After all, the Kherson drama is part of the Patrushev negotiations with US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan on Ukraine, which has been going on for weeks, with Saudi Arabia as an eventual go-between.

Besides Ukraine, the two discussed “information security, as well as measures to counter interference in the internal affairs of both countries by western special services,” according to a report by Russia’s TASS news agency.

Both countries, as we know, are particular targets of western information warfare and sabotage, with Iran currently the focus of one of these no-holds-barred, foreign-backed, destabilization campaigns.

Patrushev was officially received by Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, who went straight to the point: “The cooperation of independent countries is the strongest response to the sanctions and destabilization policies of the US and its allies.”

Patrushev, for his part, assured Raisi that for the Russian Federation, strategic relations with Iran are essential for Russian national security.

So that goes way beyond Geranium-2 kamikaze drones – the Russian cousins of the Shahed-136 – wreaking havoc on the Ukrainian battlefield. This, by the way, elicited a direct mention later on by Shamkhani: “Iran welcomes a peaceful settlement in Ukraine and is in favor of peace based on dialogue between Moscow and Kiev.”

Patrushev and Shamkhani of course discussed security issues and the proverbial “cooperation in the international arena.” But what may be more significant is that the Russian delegation included officials from several key economic agencies.

There were no leaks – but that suggests serious economic connectivity remains at the heart of the strategic partnership between the two top-sanctioned nations in Eurasia.

Key in the discussions was the Iranian focus on the fast expansion of bilateral trade in national currencies – ruble and rial. That happens to be at the center of the drive by both the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and BRICS towards multipolarity. Iran is now a full SCO member – the only West Asian nation to be part of the Asian strategic behemoth – and will apply to become part of BRICS+.

Have swap, will travel

The Patrushev-Shamkhani get-together happened ahead of the signing, next month, of a whopping $40 billion energy deal with Gazprom, as previously announced by Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Mahdi Safari.

The National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) has already clinched an initial $6.5 billion deal. All that revolves around developing two gas deposits and six oilfields; swaps in natural gas and oil products; LNG projects; and building more gas pipelines.

Last month, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandr Novak announced a swap of 5 million tons of oil and 10 billion cubic meters of gas, to be finished by the end of 2022. And he confirmed that “the amount of Russian investment in Iran’s oil fields will increase.”

Barter of course is ideal for Moscow and Tehran to jointly bypass interminably problematic sanctions and payment settlement issues – linked to the western financial system. On top of it, Russia and Iran are able to invest in direct trade links via the Caspian Sea.

At the recent Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA) summit in Astana, Kazakhstan, Raisi forcefully proposed that a successful “new Asia” must necessarily develop an endogenous model for independent states.

As an SCO member, and playing a very important role, alongside Russia and India, in the International North-South Transportation Corridor (INSTC), Raisi is positioning Iran in a key vector of multilateralism.

Since Tehran entered the SCO, cooperation with both Russia and China, predictably, is on overdrive. Patrushev’s visit is part of that process. Tehran is leaving behind decades of Iranophobia and every possible declination of American “maximum pressure” – from sanctions to attempts at color revolution – to dynamically connect across Eurasia.

BRI, SCO, INSTC

Iran is a key Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) partner for China’s grand infrastructure project to connect Eurasia via road, sea, and train. In parallel, the multimodal Russian-led INSTC is essential to promote trade between the Indian subcontinent and Central Asia – at the same time solidifying Russia’s presence in the South Caucasus and the Caspian Sea region.

Iran and India have committed to offering part of Chabahar port in Iran to Central Asian nations, with access to exclusive economic zones.

At the recent SCO summit in Samarkand, both Russia and China made it quite clear – especially for the collective west – that Iran is no longer going to be treated as a pariah state.

So it is no wonder Iran is entering a new business era with all members of the SCO under the sign of an emerging financial order being designed mostly by Russia, China, and India. As far as strategic partnerships go, the ties between Russia and India (President Narendra Modi called it an unbreakable friendship) are as strong as those between Russia and China. And when it comes to Russia, that’s what Iran is aiming at.

The Patrushev-Shamkhani strategic meeting will hurl western hysteria to unseen levels – as it completely smashes Iranophobia and Russophobia in one fell swoop. Iran as a close ally is an unparalleled strategic asset for Russia in the drive towards multipolarity.

Iran and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) are already negotiating a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) in parallel to those swaps involving Russian oil. The west’s reliance on the SWIFT banking messaging system hardly makes any difference to Russia and Iran. The Global South is watching it closely, especially in Iran’s neighborhood where oil is commonly traded in US dollars.

It is starting to become clear to anyone in the west with an IQ above room temperature that the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA, or Iran nuclear deal), in the end, does not matter anymore. Iran’s future is directly connected to the success of three of the BRICS: Russia, China, and India. Iran itself may soon become a BRICS+ member.

There’s more: Iran is even becoming a role model for the Persian Gulf: witness the lengthy queue of regional states aspiring toward gaining SCO membership. The Trumpian “Abraham Accords?” What’s that? BRICS/SCO/BRI is the only way to go in West Asia today.

sábado, 12 de noviembre de 2022

The US military is operating in more countries than we think

A new report finds that DOD uses ‘security cooperation programs for ‘secret wars,’ and recommends that Congress rein them in.

NOVEMBER 8, 2022

Written by
Jim Lobe

https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2022/11/08/the-us-military-is-operating-in-more-countries-than-we-think/

U.S. military forces have been engaged in unauthorized hostilities in many more countries than the Pentagon has disclosed to Congress, let alone the public, according to a major new report released late last week by New York University School of Law’s Brennan Center for Justice.

“Afghanistan, Iraq, maybe Libya. If you asked the average American where the United States has been at war in the past two decades, you would likely get this short list,” according to the report, Secret War: How the U.S. Uses Partnerships and Proxy Forces to Wage War Under the Radar. “But this list is wrong – off by at least 17 countries in which the United States has engaged in armed conflict through ground forces, proxy forces, or air strikes.”

“This proliferation of secret war is a relatively recent phenomenon, and it is undemocratic and dangerous,” the report’s author, Katherine Yon Ebright, wrote in the introduction. “The conduct of undisclosed hostilities in unreported countries contravenes our constitutional design. It invites military escalation that is unforeseeable to the public, to Congress, and even to the diplomats charged with managing U.S. foreign relations.” 

The 39-page report focuses on so-called “security cooperation” programs authorized by Congress pursuant to the 2001 Authorization for Use of Military Force, or AUMF, against certain terrorist groups. One such program, known as Section 127e, authorized the Defense Department to “provide support to foreign forces, irregular forces, groups or individuals engaged in supporting or facilitating authorized ongoing military operations by United States special operations forces to combat terrorism.”

According to the report, that “support” has been broadly — or, more accurately, too broadly — interpreted by the Pentagon. In practice, it has enabled the U.S. military to “develop and control proxy forces that fight on behalf of and sometimes alongside U.S. forces” and to use armed force to defend its local partners against adversaries (in what the Pentagon calls “collective self-defense”) regardless of whether those adversaries pose any threat to U.S. territory or persons, and, in some cases, whether or not the adversaries have been officially designated as legitimate targets under the 2001 AUMF. 

In Somalia in 2016, for example, U.S. forces invoked “collective self-defense” to launch a strike against a rival militia of the Puntland Security Force, an elite brigade that had originally been recruited, trained, and equipped by the CIA and subsequently taken over by the Pentagon in 2011. 

Moreover, the Pentagon deployed the PSF, which was largely independent of the Somali government, to fight al-Shabab and the Islamic State of Somalia, sometimes alongside U.S. forces, for several years before the executive branch designated al-Shabab as legitimate targets. It has never so designated the ISS.

Similarly, in Cameroon, U.S. forces accompanying a partner force on an “advise and assist” mission ended up shooting and killing an adversary. The Pentagon has used a Section 127 program there to pursue leaders of Boko Haram, a terrorist group that has “never been publicly identified as an associated force of Al-Qaeda, and thus a lawful target, under the 2001 AUMF,” according to the report.

Congress rarely hears of these incidents because, according to the report, DOD insists they are too minor or “episodic” to rise to the level of “hostilities” that would trigger reporting requirements under the 1973 War Powers Resolution. 

An exception, however, came in October 2017 when four U.S. soldiers, were deployed to Niger under a related “security cooperation” program known as Section 333, which authorizes the Pentagon to “train and equip” foreign forces anywhere in the world. Their presence in the field, however, was authorized under a standing executive order, or EXORD, that permits U.S. forces to engage in combat under particular circumstances, a parallel authority of which Congress had not been previously informed. The incident shocked lawmakers who were unaware that U.S. troops were operating in the field in Niger. 

“I’ve got guys in Kenya, Chad, Cameroon, Niger [and] Tunisia who are doing the same kind of things as the guys in Somalia, exposing themselves to the same kind of danger and not just on 127 echoes,” bragged Brigadier Gen. Donald Bolduc (ret.), who commanded U.S. special forces in Africa until 2017 and is currently running as a Republican for the U.S. Senate in New Hampshire. “We’ve had guys wounded in all the types of missions that we do.”

The report, which relies on published work by investigative reporters, interviews with knowledgeable officials and congressional staff, official documents and records, as well as the author’s legal analysis, identifies 13 countries with Section 127e programs in addition to Somalia and Cameroon. They include Afghanistan, Egypt, Iraq, Kenya, Lebanon, Libya, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Niger, Nigeria, Syria, Tunisia, and Yemen. But it stressed that the list is almost certainly not exhaustive. 

Fifty countries, from Mexico to Peru in the west to Indonesia and the Philippines (where U.S. forces are known to have taken part in combat operations) in the east, and covering 22 countries in North and sub-Saharan Africa alone (not to mention Ukraine) had Section 333 programs in place as of mid-2018, according to the report.

Perhaps even more dangerous than the Section 127e counterterrorism programs, according to the report, are security cooperation programs undertaken pursuant to Section 1202 of the National Defense Authorization Act of 2018. Using language that mirrors Section 127e, that provision goes beyond the counterterrorism purposes of Section 1273e by authorizing “support” to partner forces “engaged in supporting or facilitating irregular warfare operations by the United States Special Operations Forces.”

“Irregular warfare” is defined by DOD as “competition …short of traditional armed conflict” or “all-out war.” Pentagon officials have described Section 1202 as “a highly useful tool for enabling irregular warfare operations…to deter and defeat …revisionist powers and rogue regimes.” They have also insisted that “irregular warfare is likely to be increasingly relied on as DOD begins to “prioritize great power competition.” 

“Broadly speaking, the purpose of the [Section] 1202 authority is to take the department’s [Section] 127e approach of creating and controlling partner forces and wield it against countries like China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea,” according to the report. “Section 1202, in short, raises the same potential as § 127e for hostilities that Congress has not authorized, but with far graver consequences because the enemy could be a powerful, nuclear-armed state.”

Given the increased risks, simply repealing or reforming “outdated and overstretched AUMFs …[is] insufficient,” the report concludes. “Congress should repeal or reform the Department of Defense’s security cooperation authorities. Until it does so, the nation will continue to be at war – without, in some cases, the consent or even knowledge of its people.”

viernes, 11 de noviembre de 2022

La marcha y la bajeza de López Obrador

Riva Palacio no sabe si la reforma del INE simule una dictadura a largo plazo, pero aun sin ella, ya vivimos bajo un régimen de poder concentrado, sin muchos contrapesos, dice.

Raymundo Riva Palacio

noviembre 11, 2022

https://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/opinion/raymundo-riva-palacio/2022/11/11/la-marcha-y-la-bajeza-de-lopez-obrador/

Cuatro días consecutivos, cuatro, el presidente Andrés Manuel López Obrador ha dedicado amplios espacios en su paredón de Palacio Nacional para atacar la marcha a favor de la sobrevivencia del Instituto Nacional Electoral, ante la iniciativa del jefe máximo para colonizarlo. La justificación a sus exabruptos violentos es porque, a su juicio, quienes acudirán a la expresión de protesta el próximo domingo son hipócritas sin autoridad moral, clasistas, racistas, rateros, deshonestos, cretinos y corruptazos. Lo insano de López Obrador con sus expresiones de odio porque alguien lo ve a los ojos, es tan moralmente bajo y políticamente tan enfermizo que no se pueden dignificar con una respuesta. Que siga el Presidente con sus cantos vitriólicos; el país es más grande que él.

Sin embargo, hay elementos que sí se pueden discutir. El primero, su alegato del fraude electoral de 2006, cuando Felipe Calderón lo derrotó por 236 mil votos; es decir, con una diferencia de 0.56 por ciento. Nunca aceptó haber perdido y recreó la comuna de París –pero sin gente y patrocinada por el gobierno de la Ciudad de México y empresarios amigos– para intentar crear condiciones de inestabilidad que descarrilaran el proceso.

Hubo, en efecto, quienes pensaron que era la oportunidad para hacerse del poder, como la conspiración del director de un importante periódico capitalino para que, con el estudio constitucional de un renombrado abogado universitario, entrara como interino el hoy embajador en una de las grandes misiones del extranjero. Aquello no pasó de ser calentura coyuntural alimentada por ambiciones personales, que se construía mientras López Obrador, bajo el grito de “voto por voto”, pedía el recuento en 113 mil 855 casillas, de las 143 mil instaladas, donde tenían registradas irregularidades.

La ley no permitía el recuento total, pero Calderón, para encontrar una salida al conflicto poselectoral, le envió un mensaje a López Obrador, donde le ofrecía estar dispuesto a que hubiera un nuevo cómputo voto por voto –al margen del entonces Instituto Federal Electoral–, con la condición de que quien perdiera reconocía la victoria de su adversario. No hubo respuesta. Calderón repitió el mensaje con un nuevo enlace, pero la reacción fue la misma, el silencio. ¿Hubo fraude el 2 de julio de 2006? Si nos atenemos a lo que marca la ley, que el cómputo oficial y legal es el que se pega afuera de las casillas electorales firmadas por los representantes de los partidos, López Obrador perdió la elección. De hecho, las actas le daban una ventaja ligeramente mayor a Calderón.

La historia mexicana desde que López Obrador está en la vida pública la han escrito los perdedores, por lo que la idea de fraude en aquella elección anidó el huevo de la serpiente. La fuerza de su propaganda, silogismos, sofismas y mentiras es un talento nato de López Obrador, que mediante la victimización y el llanto permanente vive inmerso en una epopeya homeriana luchando contra gigantes. Él es el Presidente más fuerte y con mayor concentración de poder que se recuerde, pero le gusta llorar. “A la gente que vaya (a la marcha)”, dijo, “que sepa que es una manifestación en contra de nosotros por la política que estamos llevando a favor del pueblo”.

Éste es otro tema digno de discutir. La marcha busca enviar un mensaje claro a los legisladores para que no aprueben la iniciativa del Presidente para reformar el INE. “Hablan de que se va a destruir al INE, que va a haber una dictadura, que lo estoy haciendo porque me voy a quedar, que va a haber reelección”, añadió en sus peroratas. La iniciativa sí destruye al INE como lo conocemos, un eficiente órgano para administrar y organizar elecciones, al pretender cancelar el Servicio Profesional Electoral, que afecta la organización de comicios, le quita el padrón electoral y lo convierte en una lista nominal controlada por el gobierno, que decidiría quién vota y quién no, y elimina la independencia en la elección de consejeros, dejando la principal carga al Ejecutivo.

Rechaza López Obrador que esto llevaría a una dictadura, que ningún convocante a la marcha ha dicho, pero es una idea muy arraigada en su cabeza, tanto, que ha hablado en las mañaneras más de Porfirio Díaz que de Benito Juárez. No sé si la reforma del INE simule una dictadura a largo plazo, pero aun sin ella, ya vivimos bajo un régimen de poder concentrado, sin muchos contrapesos. La forma como aprueba su mayoría ipso facto sus iniciativas en el Congreso es una prueba de ello. El manejo faccioso de datos personales y violaciones flagrantes a la ley, sin consecuencias, es otra. La exclusión de las minorías, que es a quienes defiende el INE –la calidad de la democracia se mide por el respeto de las mayorías a las minorías–, y su retórica escatológica, también contra las minorías, es una más.

Su dicho de que están advirtiendo que se quiere reelegir es absurdo. El INE no tiene competencia al respecto, que se encuentra en el ámbito del Legislativo. Si quisiera reelegirse, tendría mayoría en las cámaras, pero necesitaría la suma de otros legisladores opositores para alcanzar la mayoría calificada. Sin embargo, pensar en ello es igualmente absurdo. Si gana Morena la presidencia, como él y muchos consideran que será en 2024, él no tendría que permanecer en el poder. El jefe máximo tendrá su corcholata evocando a Pascual Ortiz Rubio en Palacio Nacional.

Sin embargo, hay en toda esta discusión un hipertexto que va más allá de quién gane la Presidencia y de la autonomía e imparcialidad del árbitro electoral, que parte de la pregunta hipotética: ¿y si Morena no gana la Presidencia? Visto el talante pirómano de López Obrador a lo largo de su vida pública, la creciente violencia de su palabra y la obsesión por quedarse y mantener el poder con todo a costa de todo, la marcha para defender al INE que conocemos, también es un freno a la externalidad probable del incendio de la mañana siguiente.