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Volcán Popocatépetl

miércoles, 21 de diciembre de 2016

LO QUE LE ESPERA A MÉXICO EN LOS PRÓXIMOS SEIS MESES

Como se anticipó en este blog, el primer día del próximo 2017 se dispararán los precios de la gasolina entre 3 y 4 pesos más por litro, golpeando al resto de la economía, aumentando la inflación (que también como se dijo en este blog, va a acabar superando el 5%); lo que junto con la depreciación del peso (y con ello, su menor poder adquisitivo), las descendentes expectativas económicas, el recorte al gasto público por  240 mil millones de pesos y la llegada de Trump a la presidencia de los Estados Unidos el 20 de enero, llevarán muy pronto al país al borde de una recesión económica (tasa negativa de crecimiento durante dos trimestres consecutivos).
A principios de enero del 2017 el Congreso de la Unión va a aprobar en “fast track” el nuevo marco jurídico para regular la participación de las fuerzas armadas en tareas de seguridad pública, con el objetivo de que puedan llevar a cabo esas tareas cotidianamente, sin sentirse coartadas por las acusaciones de excesos y violaciones a los derechos humanos, lo que bien puede desatar un aumento de estos eventos y con ello una nueva crisis, en vista de que organizaciones no gubernamentales y organismos internacionales de derechos humanos van a mantener la presión sobre el gobierno mexicano en  este tema, con lo que la imagen del país a nivel internacional continuará deteriorándose.
Lo más probable es que Trump, desde los primeros días de su mandato, lance a la Polícía Fronteriza y al ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) a fortalecer su presencia en la frontera con México, para disminuir el paso de indocumentados y de traficantes de drogas; y de la misma forma, se iniciará un agresivo programa de deportación de indocumentados.
Aún no se sabe qué cantidad de indocumentados (mexicanos y de otras nacionalidades, que seguramente serán regresados a México, sin importar que no sean mexicanos) podrían ser repatriados de manera forzosa, y cuántos más lo harán de manera voluntaria[1], ante el endurecimiento de las autoridades migratorias estadounidenses, pero si tomamos en cuenta que de acuerdo a las estadísticas del propio gobierno estadounidense, el año en que más deportaciones se registraron fue el 2000, durante la presidencia de Bill Clinton[2] con 1,814,729 indocumentados deportados[3],bien podríamos esperar, que Trump logre algo similar en su primer año en la Casa Blanca, lo que implicaría que entre julio y agosto del 2017, México bien podría estar recibiendo entre 900,000 y un millón de deportados y repatriados voluntarios.
Habrá que ver con qué velocidad Trump pretende iniciar la “renegociación” del Tratado de Libre Comercio de América del Norte (en donde tendrá que participar Canadá); quiénes participarán en esas conversaciones (sólo los gobiernos, o también los sectores empresariales de cada país); qué aspectos serán los que se pretenda negociar (o en su caso, reabrir todos los rubros del Tratado, lo que complicará y alargará más la negociación); o si Trump y su gabinete económico sólo pretenden hacer un “bluff” en relación a la renegociación, y la decisión ya está tomada para dar por terminado el Tratado.
Sin embargo, todo el proceso va a generar enorme incertidumbre en los agentes económicos, en los mercados y por supuesto va a detener muchas inversiones nacionales y extranjeras en México, hasta en tanto no exista seguridad sobre qué quedará del NAFTA, o si definitivamente será terminado.
A todo lo anterior hay que sumarle el aumento de la violencia en el país (la tasa de homicidio ya está nuevamente en 21 homicidios por cada 100 mil habitantes, casi como estuvo en el 2012)[4]; los casos escandalosos de corrupción sin resolver, y que seguramente se incrementarán con el final de sexenio, ya que la subclase política corrupta, acelera sus prácticas ilegales a medida que se acerca la llegada de un nuevo gobierno; y la descarnada lucha por el poder que se dará durante el próximo año y medio (con elecciones en tres estados este año, y la presidencial, la de la Ciudad de México, las legislativas y las de varios estados más en el 2018), con lo que la prioridad de la subclase política corrupta será posicionarse para el próximo sexenio y “forrarse” de dinero, dejando así aún más olvidada a la masa de ciudadanos que enfrentará un aumento desbocado de la inflación, del desempleo, de la violencia, de la represión y un caos generalizado en todo el país. Y si no lo creen, ya lo veremos en los próximos meses.



[1] De acuerdo al Departamento de Seguridad Interior de los Estados Unidos, en los últimos cuatro años que se tienen estadísticas completas, los datos de los indocumentados aprehendidos y deportados por la administración Obama, fueron los siguientes: 2012: 671,327;  2013: 662,483;  2014: 679,996; y 2015: 462,338. https://www.dhs.gov/immigration-statistics/yearbook/2015/table33

[2] Y no como se cree, en 1954 con Eisenhower. En ese año se deportaron a 1,089,583 indocumentados. De hecho el segundo año con más deportaciones fue 1999, con 1,714,035.
[3] Las deportaciones se dividen en dos categorías, Removals, que es la orden obligatoria de salida expedida por la autoridad, y que queda integrada a un expediente específico de esa persona, en caso de que desee reingresar al país. Y Returns, que es la salida confirmada de un indocumentado, sin contar con una orden expedida por la autoridad, y por lo tanto sin que quede conformado un expediente de dicha persona.

martes, 20 de diciembre de 2016

A few initial short thoughts on the murder of the Russian Ambassador to Ankara
Thesaker.is
Okay, so tonight we have the name of the assassin, it is Mevlut Mert Aydintas, a 22 year old policeman who had been recently fired following the anti-Gulenist crackdown of Erdogan against the forces which had attempted to overthrow him recently. We also have a very useful video of the murder.
That video of the attack also shows something very important: the only shots fired are those fired by the assassin.  
What this means is one of two things:
Version 1: there was nobody in charge of security at this exhibition
Version 2: the room where this murder happened was considered ‘safe/sterile’ because it was inside an outer security perimeter which we don’t see in this video.
I find version 2 far more likely.  That would also explain why and how Mevlut Mert Aydintas so easily got it: he simply flashed his police ID and was let through.
When such an event occurs it is also important to ask cui bono – whom does it benefit?
Erdogan? No.
I see absolutely no imaginable reason why Erdogan would want the Russian Ambassador murdered in Ankara, but I can easily imagine a long list of reasons why he would not want that to happen at all.  Some will correctly say that the fall of Aleppo is a humiliating defeat for Turkey and Erdogan, and I agree.  But I would remind everybody that Erdogan clearly had a deal going with the Russians and the Iranians when he moved his forces across the border and occupied northern Syria.  There is *no way* he would have risked such a move against the will of Moscow and Tehran.  So what was this deal?  We will probably never know, but it clearly included a provision which limited Turkey’s actions to a narrow strip in the north.  If that hypothesis is correct, then Aleppo would have to be considered outside the “Turkish sphere of interest” in Syria, at least by the tripartite Turkish-Iranian-Russian understanding.  Did Erdogan know that Aleppo would fall and would fall so fast?  Probably not.  It appears that Erdogan got outmaneuvered by the Russians and the Iranians.  But he most definitely had better options to retaliate against the liberation of Aleppo than to have the Russian Ambassador murdered in Ankara.  The fact is that the Turks did precious little when Aleppo was liberated, at most they helped the Russian evacuate part of the “good terrorists”.
Even if Erdogan is a lunatic, he is smart enough to understand that if he has the Russian Ambassador murdered in Ankara NATO will do nothing to protect him and that the Russians can fire a cruise missile right into his bedroom window.  Erdogan might be crazy, but he is clearly not *that* crazy.
Finally, let’s remember the disastrous consequences for Turkey following the shooting down of the Russian SU-24 and the fact that, by numerous corroborated accounts, the Russian intelligences services saved Erdogan, probably literally, by warning him of the coup against him.
So, for all these reasons, Erdogan is not on my current list of suspects.  Never say never, new facts might come to light, especially with a maniac like Erdogan, but right now I will assume that he has nothing to do with what happened.
Daesh & Co?  Maybe.
Well, it is rather obvious that the Daesh & Co. had an extremely long list of reasons to want to kill a high profile Russian official.  So yes, they sure had the motive.  Considering how successful radical Islamist extremists have been at penetrating the Turkish deep (and not so deep) state, Daesh and Co. also had the means.  As for the opportunity, the video above clearly shows that not only did Mevlut Mert Aydintas have the time to shoot the Russian Ambassador many times (I counted 9 shots), but after that he still had the time to just stand there and scream all sorts of slogans about Syria, Aleppo and God.  While we don’t know all the details yet, this is already very strong evidence that security at this event was dismal.
Gulen, the CIA, Obama & Co?  Maybe.
Yes, they are also on my list of suspects.  The Gulenists have nothing to lose, the CIA has gone crazy with anger and fear at the election of Trump, and the Obama Administration is full of angry, offended, deeply vindicative and otherwise plain nasty characters who would love to trigger a new crisis between Russia and Turkey or make the Russian pay in some way for humiliating the AngloZionist Empire in Aleppo.  Keep in mind that this is exactly how the CIA always kills foreign dignitaries: by subcontracting the murder to a local fanatic so as to preserve what they call “plausible deniability”.
During the Cold War the Soviets and the Americans had an unwritten understanding that “we don’t kill each other”.  It was never formally mentioned or otherwise acknowledged, but I assure you that it was real: neither side wanted an open ended escalation of assassinations and counter-assassinations.  But today’s CIA is a pathetic joke compared to the CIA of the Cold War, and with hodge-podge of mediocre dimwits now in the Executive branch I would not put it past some idiot in Langley to approve of the murder of a Russian Ambassador.  Besides, if the Americans were crazy and reckless enough to attempt to overthrow Erdogan, why would they not try to murder a Russian Ambassador?
What about the lone gunman hypothesis?
Well, it is impossible to prove a negative. Mevlut Mert Aydintas did lose his job in a recent purge, he did have police credentials and his actions on the video seem to be a textbook example of the kind of fanatical behavior a lone nutcase would display.  So yes, it is possible that Mevlut Mert Aydintas acted alone.  After all, all he needed was a gun and a police ID.  Let’s see what the Turks, and the Russians, find out about him.  Still, I doubt it.  That kind of personality is usually identified by state sponsoring terrorism and then activated when needed.  My gut tells me that he did not just act alone.  Somebody probably used Mevlut Mert Aydintas.
Painful questions
Here I really hope that I am wrong, but if I want to be honest I have to admit that I am completely unable to find an excuse of the lax security around Ambassador Andrey Karlov.  And I am not referring to the Turks here, I am referring to the Russian security services.  Here is why.
Even if we assume that the Turks had told the Russians that they had established a ‘safe/sterile’ perimeter around the exhibit and that the general public would not be let in, the footage shows what appears to be only a few guests, there is no excuse for the Russian not to have at least one bodyguard in the immediate proximity to the Ambassador.  Turkey is not only a country at war, but Russia is a party to that war, the Takfiris have made a very long list of threats against Russia and, finally, Turkey is a country which has suffered from terrorism for years and which has just suffered a bloody attempted coup.  In a country like that a top official like an Ambassador should have been protected by an entire group of bodyguards, but in this case there was clearly nobody.  Oh sure, the Russian can blame the Turks for having set up a crappy perimeter, but as professionals they should know that the Turks are already having extreme difficulties in dealing with their own terrorists and that following the massive purges the security services are in a state of chaos.  Would one bodyguard have made a difference?
Yes, possibly.  Probably in fact.
From the video it appears that Mevlut Mert Aydintas was standing about 5 meter behind Ambassador Karlov when he opened fire.  Apparently, not a single of the shots hit the Ambassador’s head.  If Ambassador Karlov had been wearing a flack jacket or any other type of body armor he would have probably survived that first volley of bullets (unless one hit the cervicals).  One single bodyguard could then have easily killed Mevlut Mert Aydintas and evacuated the ambassador to safety.  Evidently Karlov was not wearing any kind of body armor that day.  Why?  He did not have a single bodyguard next to him.  Why?  No Russian voices are heard on the video, so there appears to have been no Russian security anywhere near the ambassador.  Why?
Normally, ambassadors are a very easy target.  Everybody knows them, their routine is public and, contrary to what many seem to think, most of them have no security detail.  I am absolutely amazed that more ambassadors are not killed regularly.  In high risk countries, however, ambassadors are normally protected, especially ambassadors representing countries involved in a war or who are likely targets of terrorist attacks.  True, as a rule, the Russians, including diplomats, tend to be more brave/reckless (pick the term) than their western counterparts: they don’t scare easy and they like to show that they are not afraid.  But that kind of attitude needs to be kept in check by professionals.
Frankly, it makes me angry to see how many Russians have been killed by that lax attitude towards personal risk and security.  Yes, it is very noble to be courageous, but to die killed by a manic is also plain dumb.  I would feel much better if Russian officials and politicians would be a little less courageous and a little more careful.  Because what happened today begs the question: who will it be the next time?
Conclusions
What happened today is a tragedy made twice as painful by the fact that it could probably have been avoided.  The Turkish security services will probably arrest overnight pretty much anybody and everybody Mevlut Mert Aydintas has ever met, and they will get lots of confessions.  I am pretty sure that they will share a lot of that data with the Russians, if only to show how sorry they are.  Alas, both the Turks and the Russians have an long tradition of secrecy and we might never find out who, if anybody, really was behind Mevlut Mert Aydintas.
The only thing I am sure of is that Putin will do nothing harsh regardless of who is behind this murder.  If it is the Takfiris, then the people involved will die in the next couple of years.  If the CIA is involved, however, the Russians will be much more careful and might chose to act in a very different way, possibly through the next Administration.  The murder of Ambassador Karlov will not succeed in derailing the Russian and Iranian efforts at getting some kind of a regional solution to the war in Syria, nor will it change the Russian determination to prevent the AngloZionst Empire of turning Syrian into yet another Takfiristan.
As for Russia and Turkey, as long as Erdogan remains in power they will continue to try to collaborate against the odds and in spite of deep and fundamental differences.  Neither Russia nor Turkey, which have fought each other in twelve wars, have any other option.

The Saker

lunes, 19 de diciembre de 2016

Clinton’s Defeat and the ‘Fake News’ Conspiracy
by Jonathan Cook, December 19, 2016 Antiwar.com

There is an astounding double standard being applied to the US presidential election result.
A few weeks ago the corporate media were appalled that Donald Trump demurred on whether he would accept the vote if it went against him. It was proof of his anti-democratic, authoritarian instincts.
But now he has won, the same media outlets are cheerleading the establishment’s full-frontal assault on the legitimacy of a Trump presidency. That campaign is being headed by the failed candidate, Hillary Clinton, after a lengthy softening-up operation by US intelligence agencies, led by the CIA.
According to the prevailing claim, Russian president Vladimir Putin stole the election on behalf of Trump (apparently by resorting to the US playbook on psy-ops). Trump is not truly a US president, it seems. He’s Russia’s placeman in the White House – a Moscovian candidate.
An assessment of the losing side’s claims should be considered separately from the issue of who won the popular mandate. It is irrelevant that Clinton gained more votes than Trump. For good or bad, the US has operated an inherently unrepresentative electoral college since the 18th century. That has provided plenty of time to demand electoral reform. Concern about the electoral college now, only because it elected Trump, is simply ugly partisan politics, not political principle.
Launching last week what looked like a potential comeback, Clinton stepped up the establishment’s attack on the result. She argued that Putin had personally directed the hacking operation that lost her the presidency. He had sought to foil the wishes of the US electorate in revenge for her claims in 2011, when Secretary of State, that Russia’s parliamentary elections had been rigged.
"Putin publicly blamed me for the outpouring of outrage by his own people, and that is the direct line between what he said back then and what he did in this election," Clinton told campaign donors at meeting in New York.
CIA’s evidence-free claims
Clinton’s allegations, of course, did not arrive in a vacuum. For weeks the CIA and other intelligence agencies have been making evidence-free claims that Russia was behind the release of embarrassing emails from the Democratic party leadership. The last holdout against this campaign, James Comey, the head of the FBI, was reported late last week to have caved in and joined the anti-Putin camp.
The Washington Post quoted CIA director John Brennan saying: "Earlier this week, I met separately with [the FBI’s] James Comey and [director of national intelligence] Jim Clapper, and there is strong consensus among us on the scope, nature, and intent of Russian interference in our presidential election."
Craig Murray, a former British ambassador turned whistleblower on British government collusion in torture, has said he personally received the leaked emails on behalf of WikiLeaks. The data came, he said, not from Russian security agencies, or even from freelance Russian hackers, but from a disillusioned Democratic party insider. Russia experts in the US have similarly discounted the anti-Putin claims, as have former US intelligence agents.
But either way, what is being overlooked in the furor is that none of the information that has come to light about the Democratic party was false. (Though the US intelligence services did indeed try to make that claim initially). The emails are real and provide an accurate account of the Democratic party’s anti-democratic machinations, including efforts to undermine the campaign of Bernie Sanders, Clinton’s challenger.
If Russia did indeed seek to influence the election by releasing truthful information that made Clinton and her allies look bad that would be far more legitimate interference than the US has engaged in against countless countries around the globe. For decades the US has been actively involved in using its military might to overthrow regimes in Latin America and the Middle East. It has also compromised the sovereignty of innumerable states, by sending killer-drones into their airspace, manipulating their media and funding color revolutions.
The NSA is not archiving every bit of digital information it can lay its hands on for no reason. The US seeks global dominance, whether the rest of the globe wants it or not.
The ‘fake news’ threat
The corporate media have been lapping up the CIA’s evidence-free allegations as hungrily as an underfed kitten. Not only have they been credulously regurgitating the dubious claims of the same US intelligence agencies that knowingly spread lies about Iraq’s WMD, but they have added their own dangerous spin to them.
The media have suddenly woken up to the supposed threat to western democracies posed by "fake news". The implication is that it was "fake news" that swept Trump to power. A properly informed electorate, on this view, would never have made such a patently ridiculous choice as Trump. Instead, Clinton would have been rightfully crowned president.
"Fake news", of course, does not concern the systematic deceptions promoted by the corporate media. It does not include the demonstrable lies – like those Iraqi WMDs – spread by western governments and intelligence agencies through the corporate media. It does not even refer to the press corps’ habitual reports – demonstrating a seemingly gargantuan gullibility – that take at face value the endless state propaganda against Official Enemies, whether Cuba, Venezuela, Libya or Syria. Or Russia and now Trump.
No, "fake news" is produced only by bloggers and independent websites, and is promoted on social media. Those peddling “fake news” are writers, journalists and activists whose pay packets do not depend on continuing employment by western state-run media like the BBC, billionaire proprietors like Rupert Murdoch, or global corporations like Times-Warner.
It is worth noting that the leaked Democratic emails, whether the leaking was done by Russia or not, were certainly not “fake news”. They were documented truth. But the leaks are being actively conflated with “fake news”.
Shutting down dissent
There have always been patently ridiculous stories in marginal, and not so marginal, mainstream media, whether it was reports of Elvis coming back from the dead or the millennium computer bug that was going to bring civilization to an end when we entered the year 2000. That problem has not substantially changed, it has simply moved on to new platforms like social media.
Much more significantly, the systematic deceptions perpetrated by corporate media for many decades have left swaths of western publics distrustful and cynical. Social media has only added to widespread alienation because it has made it easier to expose to readers these mainstream deceptions. Trump, like Brexit, is a symptom of the growing disorientation and estrangement felt by western electorates.
But the claim of “fake news” does usefully offer western security agencies, establishment politicians and the corporate media a powerful weapon to silence their critics. After all, these critics have no platform other than independent websites and social media. Shut down the sites and you shut up your opponents.
The campaign against a Trump presidency will exploit claims of foreign, hostile interference in the US election as a pretext to crack down on homegrown dissent. Putin is not waging a war on US democracy. Rather, US democracy is proving itself increasingly inconvenient to those who expect to dictate electoral outcomes.

Jonathan Cook won the Martha Gellhorn Special Prize for Journalism. His latest books are Israel and the Clash of Civilisations: Iraq, Iran and the Plan to Remake the Middle East (Pluto Press) and Disappearing Palestine: Israel’s Experiments in Human Despair (Zed Books). His website is www.jonathan-cook.net.

domingo, 18 de diciembre de 2016

Adiós, 2016; ¿qué será de 2017?
Eric Nepomuceno
La Jornada 18 de Diciembre de 2016
Por una vasta serie de razones, todas o casi todas negativas, 2016 quedará en la memoria de los brasileños, principalmente la de los 54 millones 581 mil que en 2014 religieron Dilma Rousseff para seguir en la presidencia del país, como un año que terminó sin haber empezado.
Ella ha sido, es cierto, una presidenta inhábil, que escuchaba sin oír, que no supo entablar un diálogo mínimamente fluido con el Congreso y los políticos en general. Y también ha sido la presidenta que sin prueba alguna de que haya cometido irregularidad fue destituida, en nombre de la moralidad, por una pandilla de corruptos ineptos, de bucaneros que amenazan con llevar el país a sepultar su pasado y fulminar su futuro.
Este es un año que se irá sin dejar casi ningún buen recuerdo. Y sobran indicios de que los tradicionales deseos de Feliz Año Nuevo serán meramente simbólicos: 2017 viene con todos los ingredientes para ser otro año de infelicidad nacional. Serán más días y días de torbellino e intranquilidad, de inestabilidad política y desastres económicos y sociales.
Días y más días en que el país vivirá la exasperante angustia de saberse en un laberinto oscuro, del cual, si logra escapar, caerá en un callejón sin salida.
¿Cómo reinventar el futuro, cómo reinventarse como país?
No, no se trata de pesimismo: se trata de ser realista. Con hechos y datos concretos no se debe discutir. Cuando el escenario político es desalentador y el panorama económico es asombroso; cuando la justicia se muestra irremediablemente injusta, politizada, y la política, judicializada; cuando una manga de pandilleros se instala en el poder bajo el silencio cómplice de las clases medias idiotizadas por los grandes medios de comunicación, hay que cuidarse.
Las élites agrupadas alrededor de un partido político que miente hasta en el nombre –PSDB quiere decir Partido de la Socialdemocracia Brasileña, y de socialdemócrata no tiene ni barniz de resquicio de vestigio– lograron conquistar el poder que les fue negado en cuatro elecciones seguidas.
Los verdaderos artífices del golpe, el playboy provinciano Aécio Neves, senador de la República, y el ex presidente Fernando Henrique Cardoso movieron a un títere de palabreado pomposo y ausencia total de ética, Michel Temer, para ocupar el lugar de Dilma Rousseff. El golpe ha triunfado.
¿Todos satisfechos? No, no y no.
Temer, el ilegítimo, armó una especie de sindicato de mediocridades, una pandilla desclasificada a la que él llama de ministerio, de gobierno. Y terminó de hundir una economía que ya venía malherida.
De manera tan acelerada como indecente está destruyendo el país. Sus reformas son la alegría del capital. Quiere destrozar el sistema de jubilaciones, destrozar todo lo que se construyó a lo largo de los años de Lula da Silva y de Dilma Rousseff.
Imponer un tope a los gastos públicos suena a algo necesario y urgente en un país cuya economía padece déficits fiscales peligrosísimos. El problema es que la medicina prescrita matará al enfermo.
¿Recortes de gastos públicos? Bien, se puede discutir. Pero cuando se considera que presupuestos de educación y salud públicas son gastos, no inversiones sociales, todo se complica.
Para eliminar el déficit se podría, por ejemplo, actuar frente a los grandes autores de olímpica evasión fiscal, o tributar las grandes fortunas, o incluir en el tope del gasto público a los miles de millones que se pagan de interés de la deuda pública.
Se podría, por supuesto. Y también para evitar esa posibilidad se dio el golpe. Si se puede volver a expoliar a los expoliados de siempre, a despreciar a los despreciados de siempre, ¿para qué amenazar a los dueños del dinero y de todo?
Mi país sigue siendo el reino de la desigualdad y de los abusos. A lo largo de 13 años se luchó por cambiar ese escenario. A veces con logros incontestables, a veces con equívocos absurdos. Ahora, ni eso.
El año melancólico llega a un melancólico final. Es la peor recesión de al menos los últimos 35 años. Muchos analistas dicen que la peor recesión de la historia de esa república, o sea, de los últimos 127 años.
Son 12 millones de desempleados, en una economía agónica. Proyecciones cautelosas indican que serán al menos 15 millones en 2017.
La generación que vivió el golpe militar de 1964, las generaciones que vivieron y crecieron bajo los 21 años de dictadura, se creían inmunes a repetir lo vivido. Y lo están repitiendo. Y peor: de manera desalentada.
Duermen a la intemperie, con sus sueños deshechos, con las esperanzas transformadas en harapos. Esperanzas bañadas por la luz de un sol negro, opaco, que ni alumbra ni calienta.
Excepto por un sector de la población: los jóvenes. Los jóvenes estudiantes. Y también por algunos valiosos veteranos de batallas pasadas que perdieron todo, o casi todo: no perdieron, por tercos y por dignos, la esperanza.
No, no: 2016 no dejará buenos recuerdos. Y 2017 se anuncia como un año siniestro, asustador.
¿Pesimista, yo? No, no: realista. Es un cuadro gris, feo.
Pero he sobrevivido a otros temporales. Mi país también, mi país también. Y así seguiremos.

Sí, 2017 llegará en un ambiente siniestro. Un buen ambiente para dar batalla a los asesinos del futuro.

sábado, 17 de diciembre de 2016

DESPLOME DE LA NEOLIBERAL ECONOMÍA MEXICANA

El haber amarrado y subordinado a la ya de por sí dependiente economía mexicana al proyecto hegemónico de Estados Unidos, desde hace 30 años, le está pasando los costos ahora también a las élites depredadoras y a la subclase política corrupta, pues su modelo neoliberal depende de las decisiones políticas y el rumbo económico que la superpotencia determine. Es decir México es una variable dependiente.
Y resulta que la coalición de poder triunfadora en las últimas elecciones presidenciales y legislativas del vecino del Norte ya no ve a México (como ilusamente pensaron que sería siempre las élites depredadoras) como “amigo, socio y aliado”, sino como una de las principales amenazas al bienestar económico, a la seguridad interna e incluso a la estabilidad política de ese país (ahí está la no sustentada  acusación de Trump de que el Partido Demócrata usa a los inmigrantes ilegales para que voten en las elecciones, sin tener derecho a ello).
Pues bien, debido a que la entrante administración en Washington piensa deportar al menos (de inicio) a 3 millones de indocumentados (la mayoría de ellos mexicanos), lo que repercutirá en menores envíos de remesas al país y un aumento de personas que buscarán empleo y requerirán vivienda y servicios, poniendo presión adicional a la frágil economía mexicana; en vista de que Trump pretende “renegociar” el Tratado de Libre Comercio de América del Norte (NAFTA, por sus siglas en inglés), para favorecer a Estados Unidos, o de no ser así, darlo por terminado; y de que pretende cerrar prácticamente la frontera común con un muro a lo largo de ella (ya existen muro y cercas a lo largo de 1200 kms), con lo que la emigración de México y Centroamérica a Estados Unidos podría detenerse; las calificadoras de riesgo, los organismos financieros internacionales y ahora, hasta el Banco de México, han desplomado sus predicciones de crecimiento de la economía.
El Banco de México asegura que la economía no crecerá más allá de 1.6% durante 2017 (su anterior previsión era de 1.72%)[1], a pesar de lo cual la Secretaría de Hacienda, como siempre tramposamente, mantiene su previsión de un crecimiento de entre 2 y 3%; totalmente irreal.
En diciembre de 2015 la encuesta de previsión para el crecimiento económico del país que elabora el banco central, señalaba que para el 2017 el crecimiento de la economía sería de 3.29%. Esto quiere decir que en sólo un año (el del Brexit y Trump), las expectativas cayeron en un 48%. Significa que la dependencia de la economía mexicana es tan abrumadora respecto a la de Estados Unidos, que un cambio en la situación político-económica de ese país, derrumba en prácticamente un 50% la confianza en la economía mexicana. Y eso que todavía no se ponen en vigor las políticas que están generando estas perspectivas sombrías.
Además se espera un aumento de la inflación al 3.41% durante 2016, un aumento de 1.28 puntos respecto al 2015; y crecerá todavía más en 2017 en vista de la apreciación del dólar respecto al peso, lo que encarece las importaciones; la previsión de que caigan las exportaciones, si el gobierno de Estados Unidos cumple su amenaza de establecer aranceles a las empresas estadounidenses que salgan del país, y quieran exportar sus productos a territorio estadounidense de nuevo; a las rapaces y disfuncionales reformas estructurales, especialmente la energética, que regaló los hidrocarburos a las trasnacionales, y sin haber construido refinerías en décadas, hay que importar millones de litros de Estados Unidos, los que hay que comprar en reevaluados dólares y con un precio del petróleo al alza otra vez, lo que va a provocar un aumento brutal en los precios de las gasolinas en el país (del orden de 3 a 4 pesos por litro, sólo para empezar el año), y ello golpeará a toda la economía (con lo que el Banco de México subirá nuevamente tasas de interés, haciendo más difícil financiar a las empresas y seguramente ocasionará una crisis de pagos entre los deudores, principalmente las familias en tarjetas de crédito, hipotecas, autos, etc.). Se espera que la inflación llegue en 2017 a 4.17% (de la previsión inicial de 4.01%), aunque lo más probable es que acabe superando fácilmente el 5%.
En resumidas cuentas, la absoluta dependencia de la economía mexicana respecto a la estadounidense (que el FMI calificó acertadamente como el mayor riesgo para el país, por lo que extendió su línea de crédito a 88 mil millones de dólares); instrumentada por la élite depredadora y sus amos en Washington y Nueva York; aunada a la corrupción que identifica a la subclase política del país, y que carcome a todo el sistema político, junto con sus vínculos con el crimen organizado; y un sistema de manipulación y control mediático (el duopolio televisivo) sobre la mayoría de la población, para que permanezca apática, “satisfecha” (la delgada capa de clase media), desorganizada y desmovilizada, están llevando al país al colapso económico, al pudrimiento de las instituciones y con todo ello a la única salida que han encontrado las élites depredadoras y la subclase política corrupta (pleonasmo), para mantener su poder y privilegios: la represión continua y finalmente la dictadura militar (ahí está la Marina haciéndose cargo ya de todas las capitanías de puerto; ahí viene ya la aprobación de la nueva ley de “seguridad interior” que permitirá justificar todo tipo de excesos y de violaciones a las garantías individuales consagradas en la Constitución, que cometan las fuerzas armadas).
Y como de costumbre, el pueblo mexicano resultará el único que sufrirá las consecuencias de todo esto (represión, desempleo, pobreza, marginación, destrucción del medio ambiente, saqueo de los recursos naturales y financieros del país, etc.), mientras las élites depredadoras y la subclase política corrupta ven la forma de salvar su poder y privilegios (a costa del país), ante el próximo embate de la superpotencia contra sus “amigos, socios y aliados”.

viernes, 16 de diciembre de 2016

The Leak That Came in From the Cold
Craig Murray tells all – media ignores him
by Justin Raimondo, December 16, 2016
Antiwar.com

What difference, at this point, does it make?
As the frantic attempts by die-hard Democrats, the media, and the CIA to prevent Donald Trump by being sworn into office reach a fever pitch, Hillary Clinton’s anguished cry seems like the only appropriate response. Trump won the election, he’s now announcing his Cabinet, and that’s the end of the matter.
Or is it only the beginning?
When the CIA targets a country for regime change, I wouldn’t bet the farm on the targeted government surviving. And while this isn’t quite Allende’s Chile, America’s increasing resemblance to a banana republic is augured in the CIA’s refusal to appearat a congressional oversight committee to explain leaks in the press charging that Russian intelligence actively worked to elect Trump. So who’s in charge here – the CIA or the people’s elected representatives?
The White House has joined the fray, implying that the PEOTUS is directly colluding with Moscow. White House spokesman Josh Earnest stated that Trump was “obviously” aware, “based on whatever sources were available to him,” that the Russians were behind the alleged hacking of the Democratic National Committee and John Podesta. Because, you see, Trump has a direct line to the Kremlin: after all, how else could the Russians issue their marching orders?
It’s unlikely, albeit possible, that this brouhaha is going to prevent Trump from taking office: the “Hamilton electors” campaign doesn’t seem to be going anywhere, in spite of the best efforts of  Christine Pelosi, Nancy Pelosi’s daughter – gee, how did shebecome an elector, I wonder?
The game plan of “the Resistance” – yes, that’s what these drama queens call themselves – seems to be to block what the CIA and the neoconservative NeverTrumpers fear the most: Trump’s vow to turn US foreign policy around, align with Russia against Saudi-jihadist elements in the Middle East, and bring an end to the policy of “intervention and chaos,” as the President-elect put it in one of his “victory tour” speeches. Their strategy is to Russia-bait him into exhaustion, block his nominees to national security positions – Rex Tillorsen will face the McCain-Graham inquisition, to be sure – and utilize the media to unleash a tsunami of fake news designed to smear him as Putin’s poodle.
The first phase of this assault is slated to be endless congressional hearings on the subject of Russian “influence” in American politics: think of the old House Un-American Activities Committee. “Are you or have you ever been …?” And the outgoing administration is going to leave a turd in the icebox with the “report” on the whole matter ordered by President Obama to be placed on his desk before January 20.
Yet this whole ginned-up controversy is starting to come unglued, as congressional Republicans start to push back, both the FBI and the ODNI distance themselves from the CIA’s assessment, and even John Bolton challenges the narrative, calling into question the entire basis of the conspiracy theory at the heart of the “Putin did it” campaign. Technical experts are also raising their voices, pointing out the manifold holes in the publicly available case of those who claim to know that the Kremlin is behind an elaborate plot to upend the American political system. An excellent article in the Intercept asks such pertinent questions as why, if the Russians are so diabolically clever, did they leave Cyrillic comments on their cyber-trail? “Would a group whose ‘tradecraft is superb’ with ‘operational security second to none” really leave behind the name of a Soviet spy chief imprinted on a document it sent to American journalists?”
Speaking of American journalists: the media-industrial complex, which was clearly an arm of the Clinton machine during the election campaign, is steadfastly ignoring the biggest development in this ongoing story: Craig Murray, a close confidante of Julian Assange, has now revealed the real story of how both the DNC emails and the Podesta email archive were acquired by WikiLeaks.
Murray, the United Kingdom’s former Ambassador to Uzbekistan, says “Neither of the leaks came from the Russians. The source had legal access to the information. The documents came from inside leaks, not hacks.” The leakers were “disgusted whistleblowers” disillusioned with the Clinton campaign’s sidelining of Bernie Sanders and what they viewed as the corruption of the Clinton Foundation.
According to Murray, while someone may have hacked the DNC and John Podesta, the fact is that hackers were not Assange’s source. In the Daily Mail version of this story, the British tabloid reports that Murray said he flew to Washington, D.C., and met a go-between “in a wooded area near American University,” which is in the northwestern part of the city. The hand-off of what is described as a “package” took place there, and the rest is history.
However, in an extensive interview with Antiwar Radio’s Scott Horton, Murray doesn’t say he personally received the materials, although he does say he took a trip to Washington in September that was somehow connected to this affair. He is firm in his contention that a) Both the DNC and Podesta leaks were the work of Americans, not Russians, and b) The leaks were separate, and the perpetrators were different people. Furthermore, Murray strongly implies that John Podesta — whose brother, Tony, is a registered lobbyist for Saudi Arabia, and whose public relations firm, the Podesta Group, received $140,000 monthly payments from the Kingdom – was hacked by American intelligence officials, who were perhaps motivated by undue Saudi influence on the Clinton campaign. (Judge Andrew Napolitano has a similar take.) As for the DNC leaks, this too was, according to Murray, the work of Americans, although he is less explicit about their identity: the implication is that the individual or individuals who provided WikiLeaks with the emails supported Bernie Sanders, although this isn’t clear. (In an interview with Sean Hannity of Fox News, Julian Assange is asked about Murray’s story, and he basically refuses to answer: “I don’t want to go anywhere near that,” he says.)
Here is someone intimately involved with the WikiLeaks operation claiming to have significant knowledge of the leaks and their provenance. One would think the media would be eager to interview him, and get the biggest story to come down the pike in quite a while. Yet, so far, there has been almost no mention of Murray’s revelation in any major US media outlet, save for a few short pieces on Fox News and the Washington Examiner.
Why is that?
“What’s striking is that for all this subjective ‘analysis’ and cyber-sleuthing, no one is pointing to what should be the first suspicion in such a case: that the hacking of the DNC server was an inside job. Is it all that improbable that someone working for the DNC is a supporter of Bernie Sanders – or just someone who believes in elemental fairness –  who saw how the DNC was rigging the game and used their access to supply WikiLeaks with the emails? As WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange told ‘Democracy Now’ in an interview, ‘If we’re talking about the DNC, there’s lots of consultants, lots of programmers’ with means, motive, and opportunity.
“Why isn’t this very broad hint by someone who’s in a position to know who was responsible admissible evidence? It’s being studiously ignored because it doesn’t fit the narrative that the media and the Democrats – or do I repeat myself – want to push on the public.”

Now that the Facebook/Legacy Media alliance is setting up mechanisms to filter out “fake news,” i.e. news and opinion they would rather you didn’t read or even know about, the truth is going to be even harder to get out there. Yes, both the Washington Post – which ran the PropOrNot smear as front page “news” – and ABC News are slated to be official “fact-checkers” who will rule on what sort of “fake news” you won’t be allowed to see.

jueves, 15 de diciembre de 2016

Hypocrisy Behind the Russian-Election Frenzy
December 13, 2016 Antiwar,com
By Robert Parry
As Democrats, the Obama administration and some neocon Republicans slide deeper into conspiracy theories about how Russia somehow handed the presidency to Donald Trump, they are behaving as they accused Trump of planning to behave if he had lost, questioning the legitimacy of the electoral process and sowing doubts about American democracy.
The thinking then was that if Trump had lost, he would have cited suspicions of voter fraud – possibly claiming that illegal Mexican immigrants had snuck into the polls to tip the election to Hillary Clinton – and Trump was widely condemned for even discussing the possibility of challenging the election’s outcome.
His refusal to commit to accepting the results was front-page news for days with leading editorialists declaring that his failure to announce that he would abide by the outcome disqualified him from the presidency.
But now the defeated Democrats and some anti-Trump neoconservatives in the Republican Party are jumping up and down about how Russia supposedly tainted the election by revealing information about the Democrats and the Clinton campaign.
Though there appears to be no hard evidence that the Russians did any such thing, the Obama administration’s CIA has thrown its weight behind the suspicions, basing its conclusions on “circumstantial evidence,” according to a report in The New York Times.
The Times reported: “The C.I.A.’s conclusion does not appear to be the product of specific new intelligence obtained since the election, several American officials, including some who had read the agency’s briefing, said on Sunday. Rather, it was an analysis of what many believe is overwhelming circumstantial evidence — evidence that others feel does not support firm judgments — that the Russians put a thumb on the scale for Mr. Trump, and got their desired outcome.”
In other words, the CIA apparently lacks direct reporting from a source inside the Kremlin or an electronic intercept in which Russian President Vladimir Putin or another senior official orders Russian operatives to tilt the U.S. election in favor of Trump.
More ‘Group Thinking’?
The absence of such hard evidence opens the door to what is called “confirmation bias” or analytical “group think” in which the CIA’s institutional animosity toward Russia and Trump could influence how analysts read otherwise innocent developments.
For instance, Russian news agencies RT or Sputnik reported critically at times about Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, a complaint that has been raised repeatedly in U.S. press accounts arguing that Russia interfered in the U.S. election. But that charge assumes two things: that Clinton did not deserve critical coverage and that Americans – in any significant numbers – watch Russian networks.
Similarly, the yet-unproven charge that Russia organized the hacking of Democratic National Committee emails and the private email account of Clinton’s campaign chairman John Podesta assumes that the Russian government was responsible and that it then selectively leaked the material to WikiLeaks while withholding damaging information from hacked Republican accounts.
Here the suspicions also seem to extend far beyond what the CIA actually knows. First, the Republican National Committee denies that its email accounts were hacked, and even if they were hacked, there’s no evidence that they contained any information that was particularly newsworthy. Nor is there any evidence that – if the GOP accounts were hacked – they were hacked by the same group that hacked the Democratic Party emails, i.e., that the two hacks were part of the same operation.
That suspicion assumes a tightly controlled operation at the highest levels of the Russian government, but the CIA – with its intensive electronic surveillance of the Russian government and human sources inside the Kremlin – appears to lack any evidence of such a top-down operation.
Second, WikiLeaks editor Julian Assange directly denies that he received the Democratic leaked emails from the Russian government and one of his associates, former British Ambassador Craig Murray, told the U.K. Guardian that he knows who “leaked” the Democratic emails and that there never was a “hack,” i.e. an outside electronic penetration of an email account.
Murray said, “I’ve met the person who leaked them, and they are certainly not Russian and it’s an insider. It’s a leak, not a hack; the two are different things.”
‘Real News’
But even if Assange did get the data from the Russians, it’s important to remember that nothing in the material has been identified as false. It all appears to be truthful and none of it represented an egregious violation of privacy with some salacious or sensational angle.
The only reason the emails were newsworthy at all was that the documents revealed information that the DNC and the Clinton campaign were trying to keep secret from the American voters.
For instance, some emails confirmed Sen. Bernie Sanders’s suspicions that the DNC was improperly tilting the nomination race in favor of Clinton. The DNC was lying when it denied having an institutional thumb on the scales for Clinton. Thus, even if the Russians did uncover this evidence and did leak it to WikiLeaks, they would only have been informing the American people about the DNC’s abuse of the democratic process, something Democratic voters in particular had a right to know.
And, regarding Podesta’s emails, their most important revelation related to the partial transcripts of Clinton’s paid speeches to Wall Street banks, the contents of which Clinton had chosen to hide from the American people. So, again, if the Russians were involved in the leak, they would only have been giving to the voters information that Clinton should have released on her own. In other words, these disclosures are clearly not “fake news” – the other hysteria now sweeping Official Washington.
In the mainstream news media, there has been a clumsy effort to conflate these parallel frenzies, the leak of “real news” and the invention of “fake news.” But investigations of so-called “fake news” have revealed that these operations were run mostly by young entrepreneurs in places like Macedonia or Georgia who realized they could make advertising dollars by creating outlandish “click bait” stories that Trump partisans were particularly eager to read.
According to a New York Times investigation into one of the “fake news” sites, a college student in Tbilisi, Georgia, first tried to create a pro-Clinton “click bait” Web site but found that a pro-Trump operation was vastly more lucrative. This and other investigations did not trace the “fake news” sites back to Russia or any other government.
So, what’s perhaps most telling about the information that the CIA has accused Russia of sharing with the American people is that it was all “real news” about newsworthy topics.
What Threat to Democracy?
So, how does giving the American people truthful and relevant information undermine American democracy, which is the claim that is reverberating throughout the mainstream media and across Official Washington?
Presumably, the thinking is that it would have been better for the American people to have been kept in the dark about these secret maneuverings by the DNC and the Clinton campaign and, by keeping the public ignorant, that would have ensured Clinton’s election, the preferred outcome of the major U.S. news media.
There’s another double standard here. For instance, when a hack of — or a leak from — a Panamanian law firm exposed the personal finances of thousands of clients, including political figures in Iceland, Ukraine, Russia and other nations, there was widespread applause across the Western media for this example of journalism at its best.
The applause was deafening despite the fact that at least one of the principal “news agencies” involved was partly funded by the U.S. government. The Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP), a USAID-backed non-governmental organization, also was earlier involved in efforts to destabilize and delegitimize the elected Ukrainian government of President Viktor Yanukovych.
“Corruption” allegations against Yanukovych – pushed by OCCRP – were integral to the U.S.-supported effort to organize a violent putsch that drove Yanukovych from office on Feb. 22, 2014, touching off the Ukrainian civil war and – on a global scale – the New Cold War with Russia.
Yet, in the case of the “Panama Papers” or other leaks about “corruption” in governments targeted by U.S. officials for “regime change,” there are no frenzied investigations into where the information originated. Regarding the “Panama Papers,” there was simply back-slapping for the organizations that invested time and money in analyzing the volumes of material. And there were cheers when implicated officials were punished or forced to step down.
So, why are some leaks “good” and others “bad”? Why do we hail the “Panama Papers” or OCCRP’s “corruption evidence” that damaged Yanukovych – and ask no questions about where the material came from and how it was selectively used – yet we condemn the Democratic email leaks and undertake investigations into the source of the information?
In both the “Panama Papers” case and the “Democratic Party leaks,” the material appeared to be real. There was no evidence of disinformation or “black propaganda.” But, apparently, it’s okay to disrupt the politics of Iceland, Ukraine, Russia and other countries, but it is called a potential “act of war” – by neocon Sen. John McCain, R-Arizona – to reveal evidence of wrongdoing or excessive secrecy on the part of the Democratic Party in the United States.
Shoe on the Other Foot
Russian President Putin, while denying any Russian government attempt to tilt the election to Trump, recently commented on the American hypocrisy about interfering in other nations’ elections while complaining about alleged interference in its own or those of its allies. He described a conversation with an unnamed Western “colleague.”
Putin said, “I recently had a conversation with one of my colleagues. We touched upon our [Russian] alleged influence on some political processes abroad. I told him: ‘And what are you doing? You have been constantly interfering in our political life.’ And he replied: ‘It’s not us, it’s the NGOs’. I said: ‘Oh? But you pay them and write instructions for them.’ He said: ‘What kind of instructions?’ I said: ‘I have been reading them.’”
Whatever one thinks of Putin, he is not wrong in describing how various U.S.-funded NGOs, in the name of “democracy promotion,” seek to undermine governments that have ended up on Official Washington’s target list.
And another aspect of the hypocrisy permeating Official Washington’s belligerent rhetoric directed toward Russia: Aren’t the Democrats doing exactly what they accused Trump of planning to do if he had lost the Nov. 8 election, i.e., question the legitimacy of the results and thus undermine the faith of the American people in their democratic system?
For days, Trump’s unwillingness to accept, presumptively, the results of the election earned him front-page denunciations from many of the same mainstream newspapers and TV networks that are now trumpeting the unproven claims by the CIA that the Russians somehow influenced the election’s outcome by presenting some Democratic hidden facts to the American people.
Yet, this anti-Russian accusation not only undermines the American people’s faith in the election’s outcome but also represents a reckless last-ditch gamble to block Trump’s inauguration – or at least discredit him before he takes office – while using belligerent rhetoric that could push Russia and the United States closer to nuclear war.
Wouldn’t it be a good idea for the CIA to at least have hard evidence before the spy agency precipitated such a crisis?

Investigative reporter Robert Parry broke many of the Iran-Contra stories for The Associated Press and Newsweek in the 1980s. You can buy his latest book, America’s Stolen Narrative, either in print here or as an e-book (from Amazon and barnesandnoble.com).