China to Get Ready for War with the US in 2026

Hua Bin • January 13, 2026

https://www.unz.com/bhua/china-to-get-ready-for-war-with-the-us-in-2026/

Trump and the US regime is on the move.

After kidnapping (or reverse-ICEing, as some called) Maduro, he openly calls to annex Greenland and attack Iran for its repressed population (seriously? not for the Jews?)

He threatens to send troops to Mexico, and to take care of Colombia and Cuba.

The Orange pirate of the Gulf of USA also threatens 50% tariff on all EU imports and has specifically targeted Spain with threats to make it “pay twice as much” for defense spending.

He is putting a new 25% tariff on importers of Iranian oil, which is specifically about China since Beijing buys over 90% Iranian oil exports.

This is Trump’s way to renege on his deal with President Xi from last October. A snake will be a snake, so par for the course.

Don Trump has obviously also dropped his dishonest effort to broker “peace” between Russia and Ukraine.

Much like his campaign promise to “end the Ukraine war in 24 hours”, his promise not to “do regime-change wars” is just another lie that his MAGA base must start getting used to.

Elect a fraud to presidency – you don’t turn the fraud into a President, you turn the presidency to a fucking joke.

I am not sure whether this proven war criminal is still angling for the Nobel peace prize.

But given the track record of the Nobel committee, they might very well award him that – as if Nobel peace prize means anything!

Just ask Obama.

Yesterday, the command in chief of the USA saw it fit to put out a fake Wikipedia page, announcing himself the “acting president of Venezuela”. On his (alternative) Truth media. Irony in full force.

Even Hitler had the decency and common sense NOT to christen himself the president of Poland, the Netherlands, or France.

Hitler actually conquered those places. Trump merely sent storm troopers to kidnap a sleepy overweight guy after some well targeted bribery to open the gate.

On my trip to Spain, I went to see the Ink against Hitler exhibition at the Museu Nacional d’Art de Catalunya, showcasing satirical drawings by Catalan artist Mario Armengol against the Third Reich.

It’s hard to not see today’s world in the old propaganda cartoons.

While those escapades happen thousands of kilometers away from China, Beijing is reacting with caution and patience.

However, there are increasing calls on Chinese social media to prepare for war with the US in 2026.

Not merely a renewed trade war, or sustained tech war. But a hot war.

The one common thread tying Trump’s theatrical bravados points in one direction – China.

His moves on Venezuela and Iran are squarely aimed at choke holding China’s oil supply. Beijing buys over 80% of Venezuela’s oil exports and 90% of Iran’s.

Though these purchases represent less than 10% of China’s total oil imports, US control over global oil supply poses a real energy security threat to Beijing.

If the US and Israel subdue Iran in a military conquest, the impact on the Gulf region will be profound. The Gulf sheiks will be completely under the thumbs of the US and Zionist interests.

And China buys a lot of oil from the Gulf.

In addition to an oil blockade, the US is also using open-sea piracy to disrupt China’s global commerce.

Though the news is falling off the radar in light of the sensational Venezuela raid and the rhetorics on Greenland, the US coast guard and navy are actively chasing and boarding oil tankers in international waters, including Russia-flagged ships.

Some of the tankers have Chinese ports as their destinations.

In the US Navy Institute report American Sea Power Project 2026 US-China Scenario, the Pentagon is recommending “hybrid warfare” in the event of a war with China over Taiwan.

While warning the US is likely to suffer defeat in a war along Chinese coast and potential large-scale devastation to US homeland in a protracted war, it calls for disruptions of Chinese global commerce through Prize Law.

Prize law is a legal construct, last used by the US in WW2, that allows its military force to conduct official “visit and search” operations and seize an adversary’s vessels and cargo during an armed conflict.

The plan involves –

1) seizing vessels outside China’s defensive zones, away from its A2AD bubble;

2) depriving China of key resources such as oil and critical minerals;

3) stealing captured vessels to bolster US capacity by redeploying these vessels to support US war operations, addressing its sealift capacity shortfalls. The US ship building capacity is some 230 times smaller than China.

The strategy is outlined in the September 2024 Proceedings article “Prize Law Can Help the United States Win the War of 2026”.

The attacks on oil tankers by the US coast guard and navy in the Caribbean and Atlantic waters today is a dress rehearsal for conducting such piracy against Chinese-owned vessels.

To justify his plan to annex Greenland, Trump blatantly lies about Chinese influence in Greenland, saying “the place is full of Russian and Chinese ships”.

The lie is patently ridiculous.

China’s total trade with Greenland in 2024 was $383 million, about 0.006% of China’s total foreign trade.

China imports $377 million worth of Greenland fish and crustacean products. It exports $6 million worth of commodities, rubber and toys.

So what Chinese ships are all over Greenland?

The invocation of China and Russia in the context of Greenland has nothing to do with their presence on the ground or influence over the island.

It is about blocking any potential Arctic routes for Russia and China as the ice caps melt.

Bottom line – the many seemingly disjointed adventures Trump and the US regime are pursuing are all targeted towards China.

Of course, China won’t fight a war with the US over Venezuela, or Iran, or Greenland. They are beyond China’s power projection capability and outside of its core interests. Unlike the US, China knows its limits.

However, Beijing will not let the US make these moves, cost free.

Commentators in China are calling for the country to get ready to take action on Taiwan in 2026.

Since the new Japanese prime minister has declared Japan would intervene militarily in a Taiwan scenario, China’s preparations will also include war against Japan.

Rather than letting Washington dictate the pace of the US China showdown, an accelerated conflict timetable in Western Pacific will derail US plans to gobble up the western hemisphere and the Middle East.

China has completed the critical assets to enforce its A2AD strategy with new naval capital ships, stealth fighters, unmanned ariel and underwater combat vehicles, as well as a large stockpile of hypersonic missiles.

The odds are heavily in China’s favor in a conflict with the US and its vassals in Western Pacific. And the US military knows that.

There are several clear benefits in taking action on Taiwan now.

First, taking out the weak Taiwan military before the recent $11 billion US arms sales arrive will reduce the cost of later operations.

Among the US arms are ATACMS missiles that can hit Chinese cities. Though easily interceptible, China cannot allow Taiwan to have weapons that can potentially threaten the mainland.

Second, taking over Taiwan can choke off advanced chip supply to the US while Washington is betting its economic future on AI.

Taiwan still supplies 80-90% of the most advanced chips globally from the TSMC fabs in Hsinchu. If Washington wants to stranglehold oil supply, Beijing can cut it off semiconductors.

It’s no secret that Washington has already developed plans to destroy these fabs in the event of a Chinese take-over of Taiwan. They are likely already wired for demolition and definitely high on the target list for US missiles.

But even if these fabs are destroyed, the loss to China is limited. After all, China has already been denied the most advanced TSMC chips by US coercion. It is making rapid progress to develop its own chip supply chains.

On the other hand, the impact on US tech industry will be enormous. Perhaps fatal.

The western media will claim that China has destroyed these fabs, using the same narrative around the Nord Stream.

But once bullets start flying, narrative becomes irrelevant. Physical reality is what counts. Lies won’t win wars.

The third benefit of a military operation over Taiwan is to destroy Tokyo’s plan to remilitarize.

Takaichi and the extreme right in Japan are hoping to use the Taiwan situation as cover to change its constitution and remilitarize, even obtain nuclear weapons.

Trump and the US regime has been prodding Japan down the path as its proxy to fight China.

Takaichi made her remarks about Taiwan being a “survival threatening” issue shortly after her first meeting with Trump last October. https://huabinoliver.substack.com/p/what-happens-if-japan-joins-the-war

Japan recently announced plans to increase its military spending by 100% from 1% of GDP to 2%.

Rather than waiting for the fruits of the toxic tree, in the context of a Taiwan war, China can invoke the UN-sanctioned Enemy States Clauses regarding defeated WW2 countries and deal with Japan before it fully remilitarizes, if Tokyo gets into the fray.

The last benefit is to the nations under US threat right now. A Taiwan operation in 2026 will give pause to US imperial expansion plans.

“Donroe Doctrine” will be history’s laughing stock, as the “Moron Doctrine”.

A defeat in a direct China US war over Taiwan will teach Washington some humility. Remember Korea?

If the US cowards out and doesn’t fight, then its credibility as the top bully is over.

There is probably no better way for China to assist countries like Venezuela, Iran, Colombia or Cuba whom China considers valuable members in a multi-polar world order.

Trump recently announced the US will spend $1.5 trillion on its military next year. That will raise its war spending from 3.5% of GDP to a full 5%.

A $1.5 trillion military budget means the US will spend more than the rest of the world combined on war making.

The country already has an enviable $38 trillion debt. So another couple of trillion is no biggie.

There is an old Chinese saying “dead pig is not afraid of boiling water”. We know who is the dead pig. My sorrow goes to its creditors.

China currently only spends less than 1.7% GDP on defense. To match US spending level of 5%, China will need to have a $1 trillion defense budget.

Given Pentagon purchasing department has admitted Chinese defense purchasing power vs the US is 3 to 1, that would give China a defense budget effectively double the US.

Now it’s gloves-off time. Let the party start.