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martes, 17 de enero de 2023

 Deepening contradictions between the south, north dim devt prospect of Europe

By Zhang Jian Published: Jan 16, 2023 

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202301/1283908.shtml

Nearly one year on, the Russia-Ukraine conflict is still raging with its spillover effects. The contradictions between Old Europe and New Europe, namely Eastern Europe and Western Europe, are catching eyeballs, raising concerns over a divided continent. Meanwhile, divergences between North and South Europe are also surfacing, which may cause greater disruption to European unity and future development. 

Both Northern and Southern Europe belong to Old Europe. Unlike Central and Eastern European countries which attach more importance to their practical interests and national sovereignty, North and South Europe tend to support European integration. However, their accumulated contradictions have become increasingly hard to reconcile over the past decade. 

The EU has gone through one crisis after another, including the sovereign debt crisis, the refugee crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict is still going on. Every time, Southern Europe is hit harder. The gap in economic development with North Europe is also getting wider.

Take the COVID-19 pandemic. Southern European countries generally rely more on the tourism industry, while the impact on manufacturing in Northern European countries is relatively controllable. Moreover, Southern European countries have high debt levels. The assistance for enterprises during the pandemic further increased the debt and fiscal deficit. In addition, subsidies for companies in Southern European countries are not as large as those in Northern European countries. As a result, enterprises in the South are now in a more unfavorable position in terms of economic competition.

Soaring energy prices brought about by the Ukraine crisis have hit Southern European countries hard again, especially Italy. Southern European countries cannot afford to spend more money to subsidize companies, while the wealthy northern countries can splash the cash. Long-term economic divisions and contradictions have accelerated the social and political polarization of European countries. Both southern and northern countries are facing rising anti-euro, anti-EU, and anti-integration populist pressures within their own countries to varying degrees, which are limiting cooperation between governments at the EU level.

In general, the conflicts between the North and the South within the EU are concentrated in three aspects. First, whether the EU is to be more united or more efficient in terms of fiscal policy. Southern European countries hope that the Eurozone will jointly issue bonds because of their large debts and high debt interest rates. Germany and other countries are concerned about the so-called moral hazards, or the risk that Southern European countries will lose momentum on structural reforms if there is no market pressure. During the epidemic, the EU launched a recovery fund, but the scale was limited.

The second is whether the EU's monetary policy should be looser or tighter. Over the last decade or so, the European Central Bank (ECB) has primarily responded to the risk of deflation by implementing a quantitative easing policy and purchasing a large amount of member states' national bonds, which is essentially fiscal monetization. This policy is very friendly to Southern European countries since it has depressed their usually higher yields on government bonds to help them stay away from the debt crisis. However, partly due to the after-effect of this policy, in 2022, inflation in the West, including the EU, was high, and the ECB changed its policy and continued to raise interest rates. This has led to the growing gap in interest rates between the south and the north.

Third, the conflict lies in whether the diplomatic resources of the EU should be tilted more to the south or the east. Southern Europe has traditionally been closely linked to the Middle East and Africa. It hopes the EU will invest more of its resources to reduce the inflow of refugees and illegal migrants fundamentally. On the other hand, the countries in the northern part of Europe pay more attention to Eastern Europe, the North Caucasus, and Central Asia.

After the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis, most of the EU's diplomatic resources have been devoted to Ukraine, and the bloc's assistance and attention to Africa and the Middle East have decreased significantly. Although countries in Southern Europe have shown solidarity on the Ukraine issue for reasons such as political correctness, they actually do not take the so-called Russian threat seriously.

It is history and reality that the economy in Southern Europe is weak while the economy in the north is strong. And such a pattern will be difficult to reverse; instead, it may even intensify in the short term. As the gap between the north and the south continues to grow, the balance between the two parts of Europe is lost, and the EU is caught in a dilemma.
Under electoral politics, the EU has not been able to find an effective solution to alleviate the situation instead of choosing to procrastinate. However, it is likely that the accumulated tension of these conflicts will be released in some intense form, which increases the uncertainty of the future development of the EU. And such uncertainty will, in turn, hinder the development potential of Europe. As a result, a vicious circle will be formed.

The author is the director of the Institute of Europe at China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn

lunes, 16 de enero de 2023

This Congressman Wants the U.S. To Use Military Force Against Mexican Cartels

Like other authorizations for the use of military force—or AUMFs—it would be an unnecessary, unwise expansion of executive power.

FIONA HARRIGAN | 1.10.2023

https://reason.com/2023/01/10/this-congressman-wants-the-u-s-to-use-military-force-against-mexican-cartels/

Last week, Mexican government forces clashed with cartel members in a deadly scene at the airport in Culiacán, Sinaloa. The shootouts, which followed a government operation to apprehend Ovidio Guzmán, son of drug kingpin Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzmán, left a reported 30 people dead. Other towns in Sinaloa saw upticks in cartel violence after Ovidio Guzmán's arrest.

One interventionist congressman thinks the solution is American military might. Speaking about the cartel violence, Rep. Mike Waltz (R–Fla.) told Fox News host Maria Bartiromo on Sunday that "we need to go on offense against them" since "the cartels are destabilizing our neighbor" and "running our border." Waltz said that he'll introduce "legislation to authorize the use of military force against these cartels."

That wouldn't involve sending U.S. troops the fight the cartels, Waltz stipulated—but an American military response might include "cyber, drones, intelligence assets, naval assets." It echoes a pitch from former President Donald Trump last week to "take down the cartels" by ordering "the Department of Defense to make appropriate use of special forces, cyber warfare, and other overt and covert actions."

There are plenty of reasons to be skeptical about Waltz's plan. For one, authorization for the use of military force (AUMF) would give the president a blank check to put American assets on the line in a conflict where Congress hasn't declared war. Per the Constitution, the president has no authority to declare war, and only Congress can authorize and appropriate funds for a conflict. Though AUMFs often explicitly pertain to only one conflict or country, presidents have manipulated them to justify a bevy of unrelated military engagements. A cartel-related AUMF could very well see some mission creep.

Those concerns aside, Waltz thinks the U.S. has a proven track record when it comes to fighting drug cartels. "We've done this before," he told Bartiromo. "Back in the '80s when the cartels in Colombia were shooting down planes, killing members of Congress, about to take over the entire Colombian government, we had Plan Colombia then. We had special operations training."

Plan Colombia, a Clinton administration strategy to cut drug trafficking and promote development in the country, was costly and yielded mixed results (no thanks to its mission creep, as it shifted to focus more on counterterrorism). The U.S. had spent "about $12 billion in bilateral aid to implement Plan Colombia" since 2000, according to a 2021 Congressional Research Service report. As Cato Institute Policy Analyst Daniel Raisbeck has written for Reason, "Plan Colombia's anti-narcotics element was an unqualified failure" and guerrilla fighters "still control large swathes of the cocaine business." The realities of using American military assets to beat back violent actors tied to the drug trade simply don't bode well for Waltz's plan.

Representatives should rebuff Waltz's effort to entrench the U.S. military in yet another conflict and instead continue ongoing efforts to repeal other AUMFs. Last June, the House voted to repeal the 1957 and 1991 AUMFs, which authorized the president to fight communist influence in the Middle East and enter the Gulf War in Iraq, respectively. Those measures didn't advance. A measure to repeal the 2002 AUMF—which authorized the president to use force against Saddam Hussein in Iraq—was eventually stripped from the National Defense Authorization Act for 2023. The 2001 AUMF continues to undergird U.S. military involvement two decades after its adoption, despite some legislative repeal efforts.

Putting American military assets on the line in Mexico—even if no U.S. troops are involved—would be a mistake. The president shouldn't have more tools at his disposal to recklessly enter foreign conflicts, and members of Congress would only be giving him a blank check to meddle in Mexico's affairs by adopting an AUMF.

domingo, 15 de enero de 2023

Concesiones migratorias

Jorge Durand

https://www.jornada.com.mx/2023/01/15/opinion/012a2pol

El año que recién terminó se superó la cifra de 2 millones de migrantes aprehendidos por la Patrulla Fronteriza en la frontera con Estados Unidos. En mayo se llegó al pico máximo, con cerca de 250 mil, y en diciembre capturaron a 200 mil migrantes.

La migración es un dolor de cabeza para los gobiernos estadunidense y mexicano, pero en el caso de nuestro vecino es una migraña, con impactos serios en los campos mediático, político, electoral y bilateral. No así en el ámbito demográfico. De acuerdo con los especialistas que analizaron el censo de Estados Unidos de 2020, se requiere de unos 2 millones de personas anuales, adicionales, para conservar su equilibrio poblacional.

Más allá de esos números, la pandemia del covid-19 dejó un rastro de muerte de más de un millón de estadunidenses y la deserción laboral retiró del mercado de trabajo a más de 4 millones de personas. Reponer esta pérdida poblacional y laboral es urgente para Estados Unidos, pero el discurso político antinmigrante está tan arraigado en los medios y en las campañas electorales, que prácticamente es imposible razonar sobre las consecuencias del envejecimiento y la urgencia de tener trabajadores que coticen en la seguridad social.

Desde los primeros meses de la administración de la 4T se ha realizado una serie de concesiones en el tema migratorio, que van más allá del control fronterizo y las medidas disuasivas y coercitivas para controlar el tránsito y tráfico de migrantes. Estas nuevas prerrogativas se refieren a la devolución de migrantes extranjeros al territorio nacional, algo totalmente inédito.

Primero se adujeron razones humanitarias para recibir a migrantes centroamericanos deportados; luego se puso en marcha el programa Quédate en México, que fue un verdadero desastre; luego se tuvo que aceptar la disposición del Título 42, de devolución en tiempos de pandemia, impuesta por Trump; una resolución que no se ha podido cancelar, a pesar del interés en suspenderla por parte de la administración de Joe Biden.

Lo peor de todo es que las negociaciones y concesiones son totalmente opacas, no se sabe si hay ciertos compromisos de la otra parte, la impresión que se tiene es que estamos sujetos a que un juez de Texas pueda decidir sobre un asunto bilateral de este calado y México ni siquiera respinga.

En la última negociación México aceptó la deportación mensual de 30 mil migrantes irregulares (360 mil al año) capturados por la Patrulla Fronteriza, que sean de origen cubano, nicaragüense, venezolano y haitiano. La selección de estos países no es fortuita: se trata de las naciones a las que Estados Unidos no puede deportar a estos migrantes. En tres casos se trata de países dizque socialistas, con los cuales el gobierno estadunidense tiene serias diferencias y relaciones diplomáticas complicadas. Tres ejemplos donde el modelo socialista, de viejo o nuevo cuño, genera flujos migratorios masivos. Tres casos donde se puede aducir persecución política y amerita la consideración de acceso al refugio.

En el caso de Haití la situación es tan dramática que resulta inverosímil pensar en la posibilidad de una deportación. Como quiera, en los cuatro casos, estas naciones suelen negarse a aceptar a sus ciudadanos deportados o éstos corren un riesgo.

México se comprometió a recibir las papas calientes y a quemarse las manos ¿a cambió de qué? ¿En qué condiciones se va a recibir a estos migrantes, qué tipo de regularización o documentación se les va a dar? ¿Se les va a dejar abandonados y que busque cada cual la manera de sobrevivir?

No obstante, hay que considerar dos cambios relevantes en cuanto a la política migratoria estadunidense. Resulta una verdadera novedad que el argumento para la deportación a México de los migrantes de estos países sea la posibilidad de ingreso por la vía legal a ciudadanos de estas nacionalidades. Según se ha notificado, el modelo se probó con Venezuela y se redujo el flujo notablemente (habrá que ver los números). Es un cambio relevante, porque las puertas a la migración legal estaban cerradas.

En segundo término, la externalización de fronteras llega hasta Panamá. Los migrantes que crucen por esa nación con la intención de llegar a Estados Unidos serán supuestamente registrados y deportados a México, si intentan cruzar la frontera. El cruce por Centroamérica ya no sería tan fácil y serviría como medida disuasiva.

A los migrantes de Venezuela, Nicaragua, Cuba y Haití les quedan cuatro opciones: buscar el trámite por la vía legal y buscar el apoyo de un familiar en Estados Unidos que facilite la visa; regresar a su patria, lo cual resulta improbable; intentar varias veces el cruce irregular con coyotes que aseguren el paso y, quedarse en México, lo cual puede resultar un calvario si se impone la misma política de desgaste y abandono que se da en la ciudad de Tapachula, Chiapas.

Es posible que veamos caravanas de migrantes desde la frontera norte hasta la Ciudad de México exigiendo lo mínimo, lo que no les dan: refugio.

sábado, 14 de enero de 2023

Palestine warns against Israel's extremist policies, the ambiguity of U.S. positions

Source: Xinhua

Editor: huaxia

2023-01-13

 https://english.news.cn/20230113/99289482e07047dc9712fc74b30c0671/c.html

RAMALLAH, Jan. 12 (Xinhua) -- Palestine on Thursday warned against the extremism of the new Israeli government against the Palestinians and the ambiguity of U.S. positions on the issue.

"The Israeli extremism and the ambiguity of the American positions will oblige the Palestinian to go for a different reaction," Nabil Abu Rudeineh, the spokesman of the Palestinian presidency, said in a press statement.

He made the remarks in reaction to Israeli soldiers' killing of four Palestinians within the last 24 hours in the West Bank and East Jerusalem.

"Continuing the daily killings of Palestinians and the violations of international law and conventions, including unilateral measures and provocations in holy places, will bring the situation to an uncontrollable explosion," the spokesman warned.

The state of tension with the "extreme right-wing Israeli government seeking settlement and annexation has created an atmosphere of instability and a situation fraught with dangers that will have serious repercussions," Abu Rudeineh added.

The U.S. positions "are ambiguous, mainly when it makes statements about a two-state solution, preserving the status quo in Jerusalem, and stopping unilateral measures "without any real action on the ground," he noted.

He warned that there would be different and firm Palestinian positions and measures to confront the Israeli actions.

The new Israeli government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his far-right allies was sworn in on Dec. 29 last year, becoming the most right-wing government in Israel's history.

On Friday, the Israeli cabinet for security and political affairs approved punitive measures against the Palestinian Authority for its approach to the International Court of Justice in The Hague.

The punitive measures included the deduction of 39.6 million U.S. dollars from the Palestinian tax revenue dues and the freezing of building permits in Area C, which is under full Israeli control in the West Bank. 

viernes, 13 de enero de 2023

Russia Unveils Advanced Warships, Weapon Systems for 2023

JOE SABALLA JANUARY 12, 2023

https://www.thedefensepost.com/2023/01/12/russia-warships-weapon-systems/

Russia will induct new submarines, warships, and weapon systems in 2023 to bolster its military firepower, according to a report by the state-owned TASS.

Four underwater vehicles and 12 advanced surface ships will reportedly go into service with the Russian armed forces later this year.

That excludes the Borei-A project’s Emperor Alexander III nuclear submarine.

The country will also induct 22 launchers with intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and three Tu-160 strategic missile carriers.

The Ministry of Defense has also revealed that it will increase the supply of Kinzhal and Tsirkon high-precision hypersonic missile systems.

Bolstering ‘Nuclear Triad’

Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu said earlier this week that his country will continue to develop its “nuclear triad” to guarantee its sovereignty and territorial integrity.

The triad consists of ICBMs, nuclear submarines, and strategic bombers that will act as Moscow’s “nuclear shield.”

“Our immediate plans are to expand the arsenals of modern shock weapons. An equally important task is to upgrade equipment and tactical gear of personnel to the highest level in the shortest possible time,” he said, as quoted by Anadolu Agency.

jueves, 12 de enero de 2023

The Plan to Carve Up Russia

MIKE WHITNEY • JANUARY 5

https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/the-plan-to-carve-up-russia/

For decades, the idea of dismantling the Soviet Union and Russia has been constantly cultivated in Western countries. Unfortunately, at some point, the idea of using Ukraine to achieve this goal was conceived. In fact, to prevent such a development, we launched the special military operation (SMO). This is precisely what some western countries –led by the United States– strive for; to create an anti-Russian enclave and then threaten us from this direction. Preventing this from happening is our primary goal. Vladimir Putin

Here’s your geopolitical quiz for the day: What did Angela Merkel mean when she said: “that the Cold War never really ended because ultimately Russia was never pacified”?

1.   Merkel was referring to the fact that Russia has never accepted its subordinate role in the “Rules-based Order.”

2.   Merkel was referring to the fact that Russia’s economic collapse did not produce the ‘compliant state’ western elites had hoped for.

3.   Merkel is suggesting that the Cold War was never really a struggle between democracy and communism, but a 45-year-long effort to “pacify” Russia.

4.   What Merkel meant was that the western states –particularly the United States– do not want a strong, prosperous and independent Russia but a servile lackey that does as it is told.

5.   All of the above.

If you chose (5), then pat yourself on the back. That is the right answer.

Last week, Angela Merkel confirmed what many analysts have been saying for years, that Washington’s hostile relations with Russia –which date back more than a century– have nothing to do with ideology, ‘bad behavior’ or alleged “unprovoked aggression”. Russia’s primary offense is that it occupies a strategic area of the world that contains vast natural resources and which is critical to Washington’s “pivot to Asia” plan. Russia’s real crime is that its mere existence poses a threat to the globalist project to spread US military bases across Central Asia, encircle China, and become the regional hegemon in the world’s most prosperous and populous region.

So much attention has been focused on what Merkel said regarding the Minsk Treaty, that her more alarming remarks have been entirely ignored. Here is a short excerpt from a recent interview Merkel gave to an Italian magazine:

The 2014 Minsk Accords were an attempt to give Ukraine time. Ukraine used this period to become stronger, as seen today. The country of 2014/15 is not the country of today….

We all knew that it was a frozen conflict, that the problem was not solved, but this was precisely what gave Ukraine precious time.” (“Angela Merkel: Kohl took advantage of his voice and build”, Corriere Della Sera)

Merkel candidly admits that she participated in a 7-year-long fraud that was aimed at deceiving the Russian leadership into thinking that she genuinely wanted peace, but that proved not to be the case. In truth, the western powers deliberately sabotaged the treaty in order to buy time to arm and train a Ukrainian army that would be used in a war against Russia.

But this is old news. What we find more interesting is what Merkel said following her comments on Minsk. Here’s the money quote:

I want to talk to you about an aspect that makes me think. It’s the fact that the Cold War never really ended because ultimately Russia was never pacified. When Putin invaded Crimea in 2014, he was excluded from the G8. In addition, NATO has deployed troops in the Baltic region, to demonstrate its readiness to intervene. And we too have decided to allocate 2% of GDP to military expenditure for defense. CDU and CSU were the only ones to have kept it in the government program. But we too should have reacted more quickly to Russia’s aggressiveness. (“Angela Merkel: Kohl took advantage of his voice and build”, Corriere Della Sera)

This is an astonishing admission. What Merkel is saying is that ” the Cold War never ended” because the primary goal of weakening (“pacifying”) Russia –to the point that it could not defend its own vital interests or project power beyond its borders– was not achieved. Merkel is implying that the main objective of the Cold War was not to defeat communism (as we were told) but to create a compliant Russian colony that would allow the globalist project to go forward unimpeded. As we can see in Ukraine, that objective has not been achieved; and the reason it hasn’t been achieved is that Russia is powerful enough to block NATO’s eastward expansion. In short, Russia has become the greatest single obstacle to the globalist strategy for world domination.

It’s worth noting, that Merkel never mentions Russia’s alleged “unprovoked aggression” in Ukraine as the main problem. In fact, she makes no attempt to defend that spurious claim. The real problem according to Merkel is that Russia has not been ‘pacified’. Think about that. This suggests that the justification for the war is different than the one that is promoted by the media. What it implies is that the conflict is driven by geopolitical objectives that have been concealed behind the “invasion” smokescreen. Merkel’s comments clear the air in that regard, by identifying the real goal; pacification.

In a minute we will show that the war was triggered by “geopolitical objectives” and not Russia’s alleged “aggression”, but first we need to review the ideas that are fueling the drive to war. The main body of principles upon which America’s foreign policy rests, is the Wolfowitz Doctrine, the first draft of which was presented in the Defense Planning Guidance in 1992. Here’s a short excerpt:

Our first objective is to prevent the re-emergence of a new rival, either on the territory of the former Soviet Union or elsewhere, that poses a threat to the order of that posed formerly by the Soviet Union. This is a dominant consideration underlying the new regional defense strategy and requires that we endeavor to prevent any hostile power from dominating a region whose resources would, under consolidated control, be sufficient to generate global power.

There it is in black and white: The top priority of US foreign policy “is to prevent the re-emergence of a new rival, either on the territory of the former Soviet Union or elsewhere, that poses a threat on the order of that posed formerly by the Soviet Union.” This shows the importance that Washington and its allies place on the territory occupied by the Russian Federation. It also shows the determination of western leaders to prevent any sovereign state from controlling the area the US needs to implement its grand strategy.

It doesn’t take a genius to figure out that Russia’s transformation into a strong and independent state has not only put it squarely in Washington’s crosshairs but also greatly increased the chances of a direct confrontation. Simply put, Russia’s return to the ranks of the great powers has placed it on Washington’s ‘enemies list’ and a logical target for US aggression.

So, what does this have to do with Merkel?

Implicit in Merkel’s comments is the fact that the dissolution of the communist state and the collapse of the Russian economy were not sufficient to leave Russia “pacified”. She is, in fact, voicing her support for more extreme measures. And she knows what those measures will be; regime change followed by a violent splintering of the country.

Putin is well aware of this malignant plan and has discussed it openly on many occasions. Take a look at this 2-minute video of a meeting Putin headed just weeks ago:

“The goal of our enemies is to weaken and break up our country. This has been the case for centuries. They believe our country is too big and poses a threat (to them), which is why it must be weakened and divided. For our part, we always pursued a different approach; we always wanted to be a part of the so-called ‘civilized (western) world.’ And after the collapse of the Soviet Union, we thought we would finally become a part of that ‘world’. But, as it turned out, we weren’t welcome despite all our efforts. Our attempts to become a part of that world were rejected. Instead, they did everything they could– including assisting terrorists in the Caucasus– to finish off Russia and break up the Russian Federation.” Vladimir Putin

The point we’re making is that Merkel’s views align seamlessly with those of the neocons. They also align with the those of entire western political establishment that has unanimously thrown its support behind a confrontation with Russia. Additionally, the National Security Strategy, the National Defense Strategy, and the Congressional Research Service’s latest report have all shifted their focus from the war against international terrorism to a “great power competition” with Russia and China. Not surprisingly, the documents have little to do with ‘competition’, rather, they provide an ideological justification for hostilities with Russia. In other words, the United States has laid the groundwork for a direct confrontation with the world’s biggest nuclear superpower.

Check out this brief clip from the Congressional Research Service Report titled Renewed Great Power Competition: Implications for Defense—Issues for Congress:

The U.S. goal of preventing the emergence of regional hegemons in Eurasia... is a policy choice reflecting two judgments: (1) that given the number of people, resources, and economic activity in Eurasia, a regional hegemon in Eurasia would represent a concentration of power large enough to be able to threaten vital U.S. interests; and (2) that Eurasia is not dependably self-regulating in terms of preventing the emergence of regional hegemons, meaning that the countries of Eurasia cannot be counted on to be able to prevent, through their own actions, the emergence of regional hegemons, and may need assistance from one or more countries outside Eurasia to be able to do this dependably.”….

From a U.S. perspective on grand strategy and geopolitics, it can be noted that most of the world’s people, resources, and
economic activity is located not in the Western Hemisphere, but in the other hemisphere, particularly Eurasia. In response to this basic feature of world geography, U.S. policymakers for the last several decades have chosen to pursue, as a key element of U.S. national strategy, a goal of preventing the emergence of regional hegemons in Eurasia. Although U.S. policymakers do not often state explicitly in public the goal of preventing the emergence of regional hegemons in Eurasia, U.S. military operations in recent decades—both wartime operations and day-to-day operations—appear to have been carried out in no small part in support of this goal.” (“Renewed Great Power Competition: Implications for Defense—Issues for Congress”, US Congress)

It sounds a lot like the Wolfowitz Doctrine, doesn’t it? (Which suggests that Congress has moved into the neocon camp.)

There are a few things worth considering in this short excerpt:

1.   That “the U.S. goal of preventing the emergence of regional hegemons in Eurasia” has nothing to do with national defense. It is a straightforward declaration of war on any nation that successfully uses the free market to grow its economy. It is particularly unsettling that China is on Washington’s target list when US corporate outsourcing and offshoring have factored so largely into China’s success. US industries moved their businesses to China to avoid paying anything above a slave wage. Is China to be blamed for that?

2.   The fact that Eurasia has more “people, resources, and economic activity” than America, does not constitute a “threat” to US national security. It only represents a threat to the ambitions of western elites who want to use the US Military to pursue their own geopolitical agenda.

3.   Finally: Notice how the author acknowledges that the government deliberately misleads the public about its real objectives in Central Asia. He says: “U.S. policymakers do not often state explicitly in public the goal of preventing the emergence of regional hegemons in Eurasia, U.S. military operations in recent decades—both wartime operations and day-to-day operations—appear to have been carried out in no small part in support of this goal.” In other words, all the claptrap about “freedom and democracy” is just pablum for the masses. The real goals are “resources, economic activity” and power.

The National Security Strategy and the National Defense Strategy are equally explicit in identifying Russia as a de facto enemy of the United States. This is from the NSS:

Russia poses an immediate and ongoing threat to the regional security order in Europe and it is a source of disruption and instability globally…

Russia now poses an immediate and persistent threat to international peace and stability….

Russia poses an immediate threat to the free and open international system, recklessly flouting the basic laws of the international order … This decade will be decisive, in setting the terms of …managing the acute threat posed by Russia.. (“The 2022 National Security Strategy”, White House)

And lastly, The 2022 National Defense Strategy reiterates the same themes as the others; Russia and China pose an unprecedented threat to the “rules-based order”. Here’s a short summary from an article at the World Socialist Web Site:

The 2022 National Defense Strategy… makes clear that the United States …. sees the subjugation of Russia as a critical stepping stone toward the conflict with China.… The eruption of American imperialism… is more and more directly targeting Russia and China, which the United States sees as the principal obstacles to the untrammeled domination of the world. US strategists have long regarded the domination of the Eurasian landmass, with its vast natural resources, as the key to global domination.” (“Pentagon national strategy document targets China”, Andres Damon, World Socialist Web Site)

What these three strategic documents show is that the Washington BrainTrust had been preparing the ideological foundation for a war with Russia long before the first shot was ever fired in Ukraine. That war is now underway although the outcome is far from certain.

The strategy going forward appears to be a version of the Cheney Plan which recommended a break up of Russia itself, “so it could never again be a threat to the rest of the world.” Here’s more from an article by Ben Norton:

“Former US Vice President Dick Cheney, a lead architect of the Iraq War, not only wanted to dismantle the Soviet Union; he also wanted to break up Russia itself, to prevent it from rising again as a significant political power…The fact that a figure at the helm of the US government not-so-secretly sought the permanent dissolution of Russia as a country, and straightforwardly communicated this to colleagues like Robert Gates, partially explains the aggressive posturing Washington has taken toward the Russian Federation since the overthrow of the USSR.

The reality is that the US empire will simply never allow Russia to challenge its unilateral domination of Eurasia, despite the fact that the government in Moscow restored capitalism. This is why it is not surprising that Washington has utterly ignored Russia’s security concerns, breaking its promise not to expand NATO “one inch eastward” after German reunification, surrounding Moscow with militarized adversaries hell-bent on destabilizing it.” (“Ex VP Dick Cheney confirmed US goal is to break up Russia, not just USSR”, Ben Norton, Multipolarista)

The carving up of Russia into several smaller statelets has long been the dream of the neoconservatives. The difference now is that that same dream is shared by political leaders across the West. Recent comments by Angela Merkel underscore the fact that western leaders are now committed to achieving the unrealized goals of the Cold War. They intend to use military confrontation to affect the political outcome they seek which is a significantly weakened Russia incapable of blocking Washington’s projection of power across Central Asia. A more dangerous strategy would be hard to imagine.

miércoles, 11 de enero de 2023

The Madness of US Militarism

Where are today's Eisenhowers, Butlers, and Shoups?

by William J. Astore Posted on January 11, 2023

https://original.antiwar.com/William_Astore/2023/01/10/the-madness-of-us-militarism/

Reprinted from Bracing Views with the author’s permission.

As a teenager in the 1970s, I recall talking to my dad about fears of nuclear war between the United States and the Soviet Union. My dad took a broad view, suggesting that if U.S. and Soviet leaders were stupid enough to blow each other to smithereens, a billion Chinese people would be left to pick up the slack and move the world forward.

My dad was right about many things, but what he didn’t realize was that US nuclear war plans (known as SIOPs) often called for the elimination of the USSR and China, even if China had had no involvement in events leading up to the war. The ruling US nuclear war philosophy was: If you’re red, you’re dead.

Daniel Ellsberg wrote about this in his book, The Doomsday Machine. As I wrote in my review of that book:

“US nuclear war plans circa 1960 envisioned a simultaneous attack on the USSR and China that would generate 600 million deaths after six months. As Ellsberg notes, that is 100 Holocausts. This plan was to be used even if China hadn’t directly attacked the US, i.e. the USSR and China were lumped together as communist bad guys who had to be eliminated together in a general nuclear war. Only one US general present at the briefing objected to this idea: David M. Shoup, a Marine general, and Medal of Honor winner, who also later objected to the Vietnam War.”

What’s truly startling is that only one US military leader present, General David Shoup, objected to the SIOP that would lead to the death of 600 million people in six months. A decade later, scientists learned that such a huge nuclear exchange would likely cause a nuclear winter that would kill billions due to famine. Truly, the (few) living would envy the (many) dead.

Mentioning David Shoup’s name leads me to this fine article: “The Marine Corps legend who tried to stop the Vietnam War,” by James Clark. Shoup was a remarkable American who helped to prevent the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962 from escalating to a nuclear war. Once he retired from the Marines, he became a vocal opponent of the Vietnam War and militarism in general, a worthy successor to General Smedley Butler.

I urge you to read Clark’s article on Shoup, who quotes Shoup’s hard-won wisdom here:

About the Vietnam War, Shoup said “I believe that if we had and would keep our dirty, bloody, dollar-crooked fingers out of the business of these nations so full of depressed, exploited people, they will arrive at a solution of their own.”

In the Atlantic Monthly, Shoup, echoing the warning Eisenhower about the military-industrial complex, wrote bluntly about America’s war culture and its anti-democratic nature:

Somewhat like a religion, the primary appeals of anti-Communism, national defense, and patriotism provide the foundation for a powerful creed upon which the defense establishment can build, grow, and justify its cost. More so than many large bureaucratic organizations, the defense establishment now devotes a large share of its efforts to self-perpetuation, justifying its organizations, preaching its doctrines, to self-maintenance and management.

You would think that a Medal of Honor recipient who’d proved his bravery and patriotism at Tarawa during World War II would be immune from charges of being unpatriotic or weak on defense, but you’d be wrong.

Where are today’s Shoups among the US military brass? Where are the leaders who are against genocidal nuclear war and who are willing to speak out against it? Where are the leaders who reject a new cold war with China and Russia? Where are the leaders with the courage to advocate for peace whenever possible in place of more and more war?

Have we fallen so far under the spell of militarism that America no longer produces leaders like Dwight Eisenhower, Smedley Butler, and David Shoup, generals who truly knew war, despised it, and wanted above all to put an end to it?

William J. Astore is a retired lieutenant colonel (USAF). He taught history for fifteen years at military and civilian schools. He writes at Bracing Views.