How To Avoid WWIII
by Edward Lozansky Posted on April 22, 2021
https://original.antiwar.com/Edward_Lozansky/2021/04/21/how-to-avoid-wwiii/
When President Biden called Russian
President Vladimir Putin and invited him for a
summit, I felt relief almost like back in 1962 when I heard on the news
that John Kennedy and Nikita Khrushchev had made a deal to
resolve the Cuban missile crisis and avoid nuclear war.
When the gentleman invites
someone for a serious business talk, especially in the search of peace, he does
not start with insults, threats, and sanctions, but as we see in this case he
does what obviously put the probability of this meeting in huge doubt.
So, it is too early to
celebrate, and I agree with Sen. Sam Nunn, who came up with the expression
“sleepwalking into nuclear a catastrophe,” when describing the state of
U.S.-Russian relations. Many other foreign policy experts began using this
term and some supplemented it with the word “cyber” next to nuclear,
especially after Mr. Biden directly threatened
Moscow with the use of this relatively new weapon.
As for the country where
World War III is likely to start, it is obviously Ukraine, whose leaders are desperately
applying for the dubious prize of following the example of Serbia in the
outbreak of World War I and Poland in World War II. At the same time, Kyiv is
trying to “wag the dog” and draw America and NATO into their dangerous
game.
Ironically, one of the main
actors in this looming tragedy is a Jewish comic, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who won
the 2019 presidential elections in Ukraine by pledging to bring
peace to a country torn by civil war after the 2014 Western-backed coup.
Regrettably, he is finding eager backers in Washington and Brussels. As the result, we see the merger of an unlikely partnership that includes Ukrainian
ultranationalists and Western democracies led by the Biden administration.
Actually, this fraternity
also happened in the past when, after the end of World War II, U.S. and Canada
welcomed thousands of German Nazi war criminals and their Ukrainian
collaborators to be used in the Cold War against the USSR. Another similar and more recent example was in Syria when Washington financed, armed and trained
Middle Eastern terrorists, calling them “moderate” rebels.
So far, we haven’t heard a
single word of condemnation or even mild criticism from Washington or Brussels
of the Ukrainian-armed neo-Nazi battalions, their torch marches in the capital
city of Kyiv, or the burning of live people in Odesa. Western democracies do not
object when Ukrainian authorities praise Nazi collaborators as heroes and
rename streets and sports stadiums in their honor. Nor is there condemnation
when electrical and water stations in areas controlled by separatists are blown
up by Ukrainian infiltrators, or even when the Ukrainian government built a dam
to block water supplies to Crimea. This is despite Kyiv’s calling these
territories a part of Ukraine, which means that the
authorities are torturing their own people with the tacit support of the West.
Some Western values.
The road map to peace was
clearly outlined in the Minsk accords, which were accepted and signed by all
sides of the conflict, plus leaders of Russia, Germany, and France as
guarantors, and approved by the U.N. Security Council. However, powerful
forces, both inside and outside of Ukraine, prevented Mr. Zelenskiy’s
fulfillment of his campaign promises and, moreover, managed to transform him
from a master of clownish stage escapades, like playing on the piano with his
genitals, into a war hawk using the anti-Russia lobby in the US and
European Union to get Washington and NATO to take action
on Ukraine’s behalf. And they are
listening, by providing plenty of military advisers and trainers, billions of
dollars in military supplies and verbal assurances that the West is ready to
support Kyiv all the way. One should add that it was NATO’s expansion to the East
and stand by invitation to include Georgia and Ukraine in this process was
the major factor in the devastating wars in these countries.
According to the Army
Times, Defender Europe 2021 is one of the world’s largest military
exercises, led by the US and NATO. It will continue until
June with 28,000 troops from 27 nations. In advance of the exercise, an entire
US Army division arrived in Europe. The Europe-Africa Command announced that
operations will take place in the Balkans and the Black Sea region, and
operations using maritime routes that bridge Europe, Asia and Africa will be
practiced. No one is hiding that this operation is directed at Russia. When a Ukrainian diplomat
said “The scenario is that from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea, we are
practicing for, well, let’s put it directly, the war with Russia,” no one objected.
In his phone call to
Mr. Putin, Mr. Biden called on Russia to “de-escalate
tensions,” but the US has not indicated any willingness to scale back its
exercises.
Russian Deputy Foreign
Minister Sergei Ryabkov said the naval deployment was openly provocative and
that “American ships have absolutely nothing to do near our shores. They are
testing our strength and playing on our nerves,” he said. “Seeing itself as the
Queen of the Seas, the US should realize that the risk of incidents is high.”
Washington keeps
accusing Russia of violating the
Minsk accords when it is he, Mr. Zelenskiy, who openly declares that these
accords are not acceptable in their current formulations. Ruslan Khomchak, the commander-in-chief of the armed forces of Ukraine, announced increases
of Ukraine’s forces deployed against
the Donbas, as well as in the direction of Crimea, so Russia is obviously
responding by deploying its military personnel and equipment and as usual gets
all the blame.
When on March 29 the
Ukrainian parliament, the Supreme Rada, passed a bill removing any need for
Kyiv to fulfill its obligations under the Minsk Agreements, NATO Secretary-General
Jens Stoltenberg called the new Russian behavior “unjustified and deeply
concerning”
Mr. Zelenskiy has
urged NATO to speed up Ukrainian
membership, but that would require the approval of all 30 members, which is
presently unlikely. Nonetheless, Mr. Stoltenberg said NATO is helping Ukraine’s military with
modernization, training, and joint exercises.
Whether NATO is ready to use its
troops in case of a direct military conflict is a big question. If it does,
then World War III is inevitable, which would mean the end of our civilization
as we know it.
So, almost 60 years later,
Mr. Biden and Mr. Putin find themselves in
the same situation as John Kennedy and Nikita Khrushchev during their
Caribbean crisis. Our fate depends on whether they have enough geopolitical
strategic vision to follow in the steps of their predecessors.
My colleague, professor
Herbert Reginbogin from the Catholic University of America, and I have sent an
open letter to both Mr. Biden and Mr. Putin asking them to take a
deep breath and think about their responsibility to their nations and all
humankind. In this letter, we said that April 25, which is the 76th anniversary
of the historical linkage of the two countries, at the time Allied nations,
meeting at the Elbe River in Germany to end World War II, provides an
opportunity to recall that vision of alliance and to become a watershed to rebalance
U.S.-Russian relations.
During the April 15
emergency address to the nation, Mr. Biden said, “Now is the
time to de-escalate. The way forward is through thoughtful dialogue and
diplomatic process. The US is prepared to continue constructively to move
forward that process.”
Why not jump-start the
U.S.-Russian dialogue by planting symbolic trees in the White House and Kremlin
gardens with the respective ambassadors present as a gesture in need of a
better outcome for our nations and the world?
Edward Lozansky is
president of the American University in Moscow. Reprinted from the Washington Times with permission from
the author.
