The Real Winners: The Strategic Fallout of the Israel-Iran War
by Ramzy Baroud | Jun 27, 2025
On June 24, US President
Donald Trump announced a truce between Israel and Iran following nearly two
weeks of open warfare.
Israel began the war,
launching a surprise offensive on June 13, with airstrikes targeting Iranian
nuclear facilities, missile installations, and senior military and scientific
personnel, in addition to numerous civilian targets.
In response, Iran launched a
wave of ballistic missiles and drones deep into Israeli territory, triggering
air raid sirens across Tel Aviv, Haifa, and Beersheba and numerous other
locations, causing unprecedented destruction in the country.
What began as a bilateral
escalation quickly spiraled into something far more consequential: a direct
confrontation between the United States and Iran.
On June 22, the United States
Air Force and Navy carried out a full-scale assault on three Iranian nuclear
sites – Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan – in a coordinated strike dubbed Operation
Midnight Hammer. Seven B-2 bombers of the 509th Bomb Wing allegedly flew
nonstop from Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri to deliver the strikes.
The following day, Iran
retaliated by bombing the Al-Udeid US military base in Qatar and firing a new
wave of missiles at Israeli targets.
This marked a turning point.
For the first time, Iran and the United States faced each other on the
battlefield without intermediaries. And for the first time in recent history,
Israel’s long-standing campaign to provoke a US-led war against Iran had succeeded.
Strategic Fallout
Following 12 days of war,
Israel achieved two of its goals. First, it pulled Washington directly into its
conflict with Tehran, setting a dangerous precedent for future US involvement
in Israel’s regional wars. Second, it generated immediate political capital at
home and abroad, portraying US military backing as a ‘victory’ for Israel.
However, beyond these
short-term gains, the cracks in Israel’s strategy are already showing.
Netanyahu did not achieve
regime change in Tehran – the real objective of his years-long campaign.
Instead, he faced a resilient and unified Iran that struck back with precision
and discipline. Worse still, he may have awakened something even more threatening
to Israeli ambitions: a new regional consciousness.
Iran, for its part, emerges
from this confrontation significantly stronger. Despite US and Israeli efforts
to cripple its nuclear program, Iran has demonstrated that its strategic
capabilities remain intact and highly functional.
Tehran established a powerful
new deterrence equation – proving that it can strike not only Israeli cities
but US bases across the region.
Even more consequentially,
Iran waged this fight independently, without leaning on Hezbollah or
Ansarallah, or even deploying Iraqi militias. This independence surprised many
observers and forced a recalibration of Iran’s regional weight.
Iranian Unity
Perhaps the most significant
development of all is one that cannot be measured in missiles or casualties:
the surge in national unity within Iran and the widespread support it received
across the Arab and Muslim world.
For years, Israel and its
allies have sought to isolate Iran, to present it as a pariah even among
Muslims. Yet in these past days, we have witnessed the opposite.
From Baghdad to Beirut, and
even in politically cautious capitals like Amman and Cairo, support for Iran
surged. This unity alone may prove to be Israel’s most formidable challenge
yet.
Inside Iran, the war erased,
at least for now, the deep divides between reformists and conservatives. Faced
with an existential threat, the Iranian people coalesced, not around any one
leader or party, but around the defense of their homeland.
The descendants of one of the
world’s oldest civilizations reacted with a dignity and pride that no amount of
foreign aggression could extinguish.
The Nuclear Question
Despite the battlefield
developments, the real outcome of this war may depend on what Iran does next
with its nuclear program.
If Tehran decides to withdraw
from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) – even temporarily – and
signals that its program remains functional, Israel’s so-called “achievements”
will be rendered meaningless.
However, if Iran fails to
follow this military confrontation with a bold political repositioning,
Netanyahu will be free to claim – falsely or not – that he has succeeded in
halting Iran’s nuclear ambitions. The stakes are as high as they’ve ever been.
A Manufactured Farce
Some media outlets are now
praising Trump for supposedly “ordering” Netanyahu to halt further strikes on
Iran.
This narrative is as insulting
as it is false. What we are witnessing is a staged political performance – a
carefully orchestrated spat between two partners playing both sides of a
dangerous game.
Trump’s Truth post, “Bring
your pilots home,” was not a call for peace. It was a calculated move to
reclaim credibility after fully surrendering to Netanyahu’s war. It allows
Trump to pose as a moderate, distract from Israel’s battlefield losses, and create
the illusion of a US administration reining in Israeli aggression.
In truth, this was always a
joint US-Israeli war – one planned, executed, and justified under the pretext
of defending Western interests while laying the groundwork for deeper
intervention and potential invasion.
Return of the People
Amid all the military
calculations and geopolitical theater, one truth stands out: the real winners
are the Iranian people.
When it mattered most, they
stood united. They understood that resisting foreign aggression was more
important than internal disputes. They reminded the world – and themselves –
that in moments of crisis, people are not peripheral actors in history; they
are its authors.
The message from Tehran is
unmistakable: We are here. We are proud. And we will not be broken.
That is the message Israel,
and perhaps even Washington, did not anticipate. And it is the one that could
reshape the region for years to come.
No hay comentarios:
Publicar un comentario