THE SURRENDER OF “EL MAYO” ZAMBADA AND JOAQUIN GUZMAN LOPEZ

The agreed surrender of the man considered the last drug trafficker of the “older” or “founding” generation of the Sinaloa Cartel, Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada, almost 80 years old, and one of the sons of “El Chapo” Guzman, Joaquin Guzman Lopez, to the United States Department of Justice in El Paso, Texas, has several interpretations and considerations.

The fact that the most wanted drug lord, after “El Chapo” Guzman, has decided to surrender to the United States authorities, together with one of the sons of his former compadre, implies two possible hypotheses.

First, “El Mayo” Zambada lost the internal power struggle with other members of the Sinaloa cartel, significantly, the other two sons of “El Chapo,” Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar and Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar, as well as with “El Chapo’s” brother, Aureliano Guzmán Loera.

Unconfirmed versions indicate that “El Mayo” was firmly opposed to the export of fentanyl to the United States, since this would cause an unusual reaction from the authorities in Washington, due to the overdose deaths that this substance is causing in the neighboring country, which could well even mean the possible dismantling of the cartel.

On the other hand, the Guzmán Salazar brothers and the brother of “El Chapo” were in favor of continuing with the export of millions of fentanyl pills to the United States.

If this hypothesis is true, “El Mayo”, given his advanced age and given that his son has been in prison in the United States for years, preferred to surrender to the DEA and the Department of Justice, as a “protected witness” to reveal the cartel's activities in the export of fentanyl, in exchange for his son being given a reduced sentence and/or more favorable treatment for him and his son in American prisons.

In this context, it would be assumed that Joaquín Guzmán López (brother of Ovidio Guzmán López arrested in 2023), half-brother of the Guzmán Salazar brothers, would also agree with the position of “El Mayo” and having lost influence and power within the cartel, he also decided to agree to surrender to the American authorities.

Second, it could also be that the entire operation was a strategy by the cartel itself to make the most of a situation that has been deteriorating, as both the United States and Mexican authorities have reinforced their actions against fentanyl smuggling, and this has seriously affected the operations of the Sinaloa cartel, which is also in a fight to the death against the Jalisco Nueva Generación Cartel to control both the northern border of Mexico and the border between Chiapas and Guatemala.

In this sense, the cartel would have been willing to sacrifice two of its leaders (they could be the weakest within the cartel leadership), to reduce the pressure from the United States authorities and even suspend fentanyl exports to the United States, waiting for what happens in the presidential elections in that country; as well as the change of federal administration in Mexico starting next October 1st.

This second hypothesis seems weaker, but not entirely ruled out.

Likewise, the handover of “Mayo” Zambada could mean a risk for the outgoing president of Mexico, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who has been consistently accused in Mexico and abroad of having intentionally protected the illegal activities of the Sinaloa cartel, which López Obrador has always emphatically denied; since “El Mayo” could reveal compromising information about the current Mexican government and previous governments to the United States authorities, in case federal, state and local officials were linked to the Cartel.

This agreed-upon surrender of two important Mexican drug traffickers from one of the two major drug cartels in Mexico is great news for the Joe Biden government and for the presumed nominee for the Democratic Party nomination, Kamala Harris, since the Republican candidate Donald Trump and his vice presidential candidate J.D. Vance have harshly criticized the current Democratic administration and the Mexican government for the crisis of fentanyl overdose deaths in the United States, and have even threatened to launch military operations against the cartels on Mexican territory, if they win the presidential elections.

However, this surrender only buys the Biden and López Obrador governments some time, since Trump and Vance will not stop pressing on this issue and on that of illegal migration to the United States throughout the electoral campaign, until November 5, the day of the presidential elections.