Renewables Could Be The Big Winner In The Post-Pandemic World

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Jun 15, 2020

https://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Renewable-Energy/Renewables-Could-Be-The-Big-Winner-In-The-Post-Pandemic-World.html

Although the coronavirus crisis has slowed down clean energy investments and installations, renewable energy and green technologies have the chance to emerge as the winners in the post-COVID-19 world.

Undoubtedly, the global health crisis has impacted every corner of the energy industry, including renewables.  

Yet, renewable energy has so far been the energy source most resilient to lockdown measures. Demand for renewables is set to grow this year—and this will be the only energy source to grow in 2020 compared to 2019, in contrast to all fossil fuels and nuclear, according to a recent report from the International Energy Agency (IEA).  While the agency predicts that renewable power capacity installations globally will return to pre-virus levels as early as in 2021, the jury is still out on when (and if) global oil demand will return to its ‘normal’ consumption level of around 100 million barrels per day (BPD).

Some analysts argue that we may have already hit peak oil demand, considering that the pandemic might result in lasting changes in consumer behavior and lifestyles, such as the opportunity to work from home indefinitely. Even the bosses of BP and Shell do not rule out the notion that the world may have already seen peak oil demand. 

Throw in the growing investor pressure on the oil industry to start addressing climate change and Big Oil’s pledges for net-zero emissions, and here we have another driver of clean energy technology development and installation. 

In 2019, renewables dwarfed conventional generation sources in terms of both capacity additions and investment, a new report from Frankfurt School of Finance & Management, UN Environment Program (UNEP), and BNEF showed. As much as 78 percent of net gigawatts of generating capacity added globally in 2019 was renewable energy, with investment in renewables – excluding large hydropower – more than three times the investment in new fossil fuel-powered plants.

As per the IEA, the pandemic “is hurting – but not halting – global growth in renewable power capacity.”  

Supportive government policies will be crucial for renewables growth to quickly recover to pre-crisis levels. And early indications from major economies, especially in Europe, are that the so-called green recovery will be the pillar of the policies for economic recovery. 

Two of the biggest European economies—Germany and France—called for an acceleration of the green and digital transitions in May. The European Commission (EC) pledged US$630 billion (560 billion euro) to support investments and reforms, including to back the green and digital transitions and the resilience of national economies. In the UK, which is leaving the EU, more than 200 companies and business associations called on the UK Government to deliver a clean, inclusive, and resilient recovery plan. Oil supermajors BP and Shell are among the signatories of the letter to the UK government. 

While the push for greener economies has been gaining traction, oil companies, and their stocks have been suffering in recent years from volatile oil prices and the investor push for accountability for global warming.

The S&P Global Clean Energy Index has gained nearly 45 percent in the two years through June 2020, while the S&P Global Oil Index has seen its performance at a negative 29 percent, and the S&P 500 Energy Index was at a negative 35 percent, says Frank Holmes, CEO, and CIO at investment advisor U.S. Global Investors, which manages no-load mutual funds.

According to a recent report published by Imperial College Business School in partnership with the IEA, returns of renewable energy stocks have been significantly higher than returns on fossil fuel stocks.

The report showed that “publically-traded renewable power portfolios have posted significantly higher returns for investors and lower volatility over fossil fuels during the past ten years and during the COVID-19 crisis,” Imperial College London said in a statement.

While the energy sector, including renewables, is set for investment and installation setbacks in the short term, uncertainty in the oil and gas industry looks to be much higher than in renewables. The longer-term prospects and economic rationale for renewable energy remain strong as costs continue to decline, while the specter of peak demand will continue to loom over the oil industry.

“Although in the short term, governments may delay scheduling new renewable capacity auctions and turn to exist natural gas plants to meet new demand, in the medium and long term the economic case of wind and solar remains strong thanks to expected continuing cost reductions and to the long-term price predictability over project lifetimes,” the IEA said in its latest renewables market update in May.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

The peace process was never intended to give Palestinians a state — true confessions from Council on Foreign Relations

BY PHILIP WEISS  MAY 22, 2020

https://mondoweiss.net/2020/05/peace-process-was-never-intended-to-give-palestinians-a-state-true-confessions-from-council-on-foreign-relations/

Steven Cook of the Council on Foreign Relations has an article at Foreign Policy saying that the U.S. should phase out aid to Israel and “end the special relationship” because the peace process has attained its real objective: Israel is established as a secure country with a standard of living rivaling the UK and France, and no real military threat.

The piece is shocking because it strips the mask from the peace process, saying just what Edward Said, Rashid Khalidi, and Ali Abunimah said decades ago, it was intended to fail, never producing Palestinian sovereignty.

Cook says the U.S.’s “core interest” in The Middle East was always Israel’s “security,” so the peace process needed to spin its wheels forever.

U.S. policymakers have long believed that a two-state solution was the best way to ensure Israel’s security, and U.S. presidents from Bill Clinton to Barack Obama to Donald Trump himself has repeatedly pursued that goal. But the most unacknowledged fact about the two-state impasse—and perhaps the reason Washington hasn’t summoned the political will to overcome it—is that it has helped the United States achieve one [of] its core interests in the region: helping to ensure Israeli security….

The “tragedy” for Palestinians are that they trusted the U.S. and “misread” core U.S. interests, Cook explains, but now they have to live forever in Bantustans.

The tragedy in all this is the permanent dispossession of the Palestinians, who will no doubt be outraged at Washington’s washing its hands of the conflict, sealing their fate to live forever under the boot of the IDF or shoved into Bantustans. They would be justified in their anger. They have also misread core U.S. interests in the Middle East, which really are not concerned with the Palestinians, who, against all evidence, trusted the United States.

The next time anyone talks about Arabs not really meaning what they say or conducting foreign a policy like a soukh, remind them that Even a Council on Foreign Relations pundit says the U.S. lied to Palestinians for 25 years of false promises.

The obvious question that arises is Why destroying Palestinian human rights is a core U.S. interest– indeed, why Zionism is a core U.S. interest — and yes the extent to which this reflects the power of the Israel lobby in our politics. For a generation, we have had White House mediators who were labeled “Israel’s lawyer,” or who told synagogue audiences “We need to be advocates for Israel,” or who went right from their postings in the Obama White House to Israel advocacy jobs (both Dan Shapiro and Tamara Cofman Wittes).

None of these jokers ever had any real interest in giving Palestinians any sovereignty.

And how much of the instability of Israel’s neighbors have also served that “core” interest? Israel is sitting pretty, Cook says, because “Iraq and Syria are in a shambles.” Lebanon is crumbling.

We should be grateful to Cook for saying that the point of the peace process was to fail; and that failure was all for Israel’s interest.

The Israel Policy Forum issued a similar insight when Netanyahu began threatening to annex the West Bank last year.

To [annex] will exacerbate partisan divisions on Israel in the United States, ultimately erode Israel’s security, give an unnecessary and clear victory to the BDS movement, and upend decades of carefully calibrated policy on Israel.

“[D]ecades of carefully calibrated policy on Israel” means that Zionists liberal or otherwise give lip service to a Palestinian state but ultimately have no problem with the occupation because the status quo is good for Israel– It is a wealthy democracy-for-Jews– and apartheid for Palestinians is tragic but not worth losing sleepover.

And when a real effort arises to make Israel pays a price for its human rights violations, liberal Zionists will jump to label BDS as antisemitic.

Minería, industria próspera en municipios empobrecidos

México, uno de los principales productores de oro y plata del mundo //Compañías gozan de facilidades fiscales y mano de obra barata

Casi 50% de habitantes, en situación precaria

Braulio Carbajal

https://www.jornada.com.mx/2020/06/14/economia/016n1eco 

Periódico La Jornada
Domingo 14 de junio de 2020, p. 16

México es uno de los principales productores de oro y plata del mundo. Paradójicamente, los municipios en los cuales los conglomerados mineros –principalmente extranjeros– extraen la mayor cantidad de esos minerales para ser exportados enfrentan altos índices de pobreza.

En ocho de los 10 municipios que más oro producen en México viven en situación de pobreza más de 40 por ciento de sus habitantes, de acuerdo con estadísticas del Consejo Nacional de Evaluación de la Política de Desarrollo Social (Coneval). La misma situación prevalece en nueve de los mayores extractores de plata.

Datos oficiales indican que, con alrededor de 6 mil toneladas métricas, el país es el principal productor de plata del planeta. Según la Cámara Minera de México (Camimex), aproximadamente 20 por ciento de ese mineral sale de Fresnillo, Zacatecas, municipio donde, de acuerdo con el Coneval, 46 por ciento de la población se encuentra en la pobreza.

En esa localidad tiene su sede Fresnillo, la mayor productora de plata del mundo y la más grande de oro en México. Su casa matriz es Industrias Peñoles, propiedad de Alberto Baillères, uno de los empresarios más acaudalados del país, con una fortuna calculada en 6 mil 400 millones de dólares.

Esa minera tiene proyectos en varios estados; sin embargo, en Fresnillo, Zacatecas, están tres de los más importantes: la optimización de la mina Fresnillo y los proyectos Piritas y Juanicipio. Todos son de oro y plata, que juntos tienen un valor aproximado de 500 millones de dólares.

Mientras esa empresa ha extraído del municipio metales precios por más de 50 años, la mitad de sus habitantes viven en pobreza y otro 5 por ciento en pobreza extrema.

Luis Andrade, investigador de la Facultad de Negocios de la Universidad La Salle, explicó que la industria minera está localizada en entidades con índices de pobreza extremadamente altos, lo cual se da por los bajos salarios que pagan a los habitantes que trabajan en sus plantas.

Asimismo, explicó que suelen ser entidades que viven de las sobras de las empresas, como el caso de Taxco o Real del Monte, municipios mineros por excelencia, donde sus habitantes sobreviven de artículos que fabrican con los minerales.

Además de Fresnillo, los otros que integran la lista de los 10 mayores municipios productores de plata son: Mazapil, Zacatecas (59.9 por ciento de habitantes en pobreza); Chalchihuites, Zacatecas (59.0); Ocampo, Chihuahua (43.7); San José del Progreso, Oaxaca (88.4); Zacazonapan, estado de México (67.6); Santiago Papasquiaro, Durango (46); San Dimas, Durango (50.5); Chínipas, Chihuahua (83.9), y Cananea, Sonora (26.1).

Según la Subsecretaría de Minería de la Secretaría de Economía, 10 por ciento del territorio nacional está concesionado a mineras; operan 345 empresas, de las cuales 234 son extranjeras, principalmente canadienses y estadunidenses.

En territorio mexicano operan compañías con presencia global, como GoldCorp, Americas Silver, First Majestic, Grupo México, Aura Minerals, Canadian Mining Company, Endeavour Silver, London Mining, Newmont Mining, Pan American Silver, Southern Silver y Torex Gold, entre otras.

Para el catedrático de la Universidad La Salle, la razón por la que las compañías extranjeras, sobre todo canadienses, se establecen en México es porque, además de que en sus países no hay grandes cantidades de recursos naturales para explotar, aquí encuentran facilidades fiscales y mano de obra barata.

El panorama no es distinto en los municipios productores de oro, sector en el que México es el octavo mayor extractor mundial. Según la Camimex, con 15 por ciento de la producción total, Caborca, Sonora, es el principal generador en el país, pero, de acuerdo con el Coneval, 31 por ciento de sus habitantes viven en pobreza, es decir, uno de cada tres.

Excepto Cucurpe, Sonora, cuya pobreza abarca 19 por ciento de su población, los demás municipios que completan la lista de los 10 mayores productores de oro tienen altos índices de rezago: Mazapil, Zacatecas (59.9 por ciento); Ocampo, Chihuahua (43.7); Cocula, Guerrero (55.9); Sahuaripa, Sonora (40.1); Eduardo Neri, Guerrero (71.9); Chínipas, Chihuahua (83.9); San Juan del Río, Durango (55.3), y Fresnillo, Zacatecas (46.3).

Desde el punto de vista de Andrade, el panorama seguirá siendo el mismo al menos que el gobierno incentive la competencia en el sector minero, principalmente mediante el apoyo a empresas nacionales, dado que ello obligará a aumentar los salarios de los trabajadores.

De igual forma, considera que es necesario encontrar la manera de mejorar el esquema fiscal para que aporten más a las arcas públicas. No se trata de ahuyentarlas, porque a final de cuentas generan empleos y lo que ahora necesitamos es inversión directa, pero tampoco creo que dejen el país, pues aún tienen minas con muchos años de vida para explotar.

JUNE 11, 2020

The Beginning of The end for Unearned Authority

by KATHLEEN WALLACE

https://www.counterpunch.org/2020/06/11/the-beginning-of-the-end-for-unearned-authority/

At last glance it looks like we are up to almost 600 documented episodes of police violence during the George Floyd protests. An attorney and mathematician have compiled a google doc titled “GeorgeFloyd Protest – police brutality videos on Twitter”.

Greg Doucette and mathematician Jason Miller has all the receipts, doing the massively time-consuming work to locate these depraved videos all in one place. Undeniable and powerful, there is no room left for anyone sane and decent to deny this is happening. This is the resource to provide to any dim stragglers, those claiming ignorance or any of the other forms of denial some older white Americans seem keen to continue with. A haunting fact being this is simply what has been caught on video—the violence stretches like grains of sand in our culture—unending and vast. Those who continue to deny this reality are simply entrenched in their own racism and authoritarianism. Logic, proof, and empathy are not what those lost souls are about. But those who can still be reached—perhaps this will spark life into their seemingly dead cardiac tissue.

Our entire model of modern “civilized” life has been predicated on certain professions and distinct wealth classes having the first, and often only, say in the direction of our lives. The vast population being subjected to their whims as well as their sociopathic tendencies. This moment in time is not simply a protest of one murder, but the beginning of the end for the unearned entitlements in our society. The bravery of the Black Lives Matter movement cannot be overstated and their willingness to plunge forward and demand systemic dismantling is a watershed moment in history.

There is no way those of us who are white can ever comprehend living life with this kind of default fear or how terrifying it would be to anxiously see our sons and daughters go outside, worrying that they will get on the wrong side of someone steroid up and looking for a feeling of individual supremacy.

It is for us to aid and support and to dismantle in any way we can. Any success that may come in terms of bringing George Floyd’s murderer and accomplices to justice cannot be viewed as an endpoint. Breonna Taylor still has no justice. And you can insert literally millions of names into the statement “______” has no justice. The heinous individuals who have skated by on the lightness of their skin will need to have a worth as a human in the future by caring for others. The simple lack of melanin won’t cut it any longer. This is how it should always have been, but the lowly and honorless found ways through history to enslave others. They succeeded simply because the decent was too quiet and tacitly accepted the perversion as normal. We have all seen in a small way how the outrageous can become normalized (just watch the mainstream media dissect a Trump press conference as if any response beyond “that fucker is batshit crazy” is appropriate). This is how we get to a place like this. All minor injustice needs to be met with a mountain of opposition.

The only fitting response to the horror is to honor those who have been victims is through the wholesale restructuring of society. Until this sickening and toxic framework is gone, there will always be the need for an “other” to harm. This must be the beginning. The moment in time of the great unraveling, not an unraveling to fear, but one that pulls apart the confines and limitations that bind.

I’ve been writing and considering these needs for a societal overhaul for so long with a grim feeling that the changes would never come to pass. We all talk and commiserate, but truly don’t know how to bring about change. BLM and their associated activists are discarding the notion that these changes cannot occur. I believe they will be viewed as the liberators who delivered the paradigm earthquake.

This younger generation of activists has restored my sense of the possible.

Kathleen Wallace writes out of the US Midwest.

Uphold three bottom lines for China-US relations

By Wang Jisi Source: Global Times Published: 2020/6/5 

Since the novel coronavirus raged, China-US relations have continued to decline. The successive China-related policies and bills introduced by the US government and the US Congress has seriously damaged bilateral relations. The US officials are also increasingly vocal in their attacks on China. Some commentators in both the US and China noted that bilateral relations are in "free fall." World public opinion is worried that once China-US relations get out of control, it will be more difficult for the global economy to recover in the post-COVID-19 era. Arms races and geopolitical conflicts will surely intensify, the world order will become more chaotic, and some unexpected disasters will be on the way. This is by no means alarmist.

The more difficult China-US relations become, the more we need to establish bottom-line thinking. 

Around 2014, Chinese officials repeatedly stated: Strategic mutual trust, economic and trade cooperation and people-to-people and cultural exchanges are the three pillars underpinning the China-US relationship. Based on this, I believe there are three bottom lines that should be upheld in today's China-US relations.

The first bottom line is that no matter how serious the differences between the two countries may be, they must be handled by peaceful means instead of resorting to war. It is unrealistic at this stage to expect China and the US to build genuine strategic mutual trust, but at the very least each side should convince the other side that it would never take the initiative to provoke a war. The war here includes not only nuclear war and conventional war but also unconventional war such as cyberwar and space war. There is no denying that the Chinese and US militaries are preparing for war, and in recent years each has made the other the main imaginary enemy. This trend will continue for a long time to come. Fortunately, the militaries of China and the US have maintained close contacts even in the face of poor political communications.

In August 2017, the military command systems of both sides signed the Joint Staff Dialogue Mechanism. This document plays an important role in crisis management between the two militaries. To avoid war, the US must honor its commitment to what it refers to as a "one-China" policy and must not support "Taiwan independence." 

The two countries should work together with other relevant countries to achieve demilitarization of the South China Sea and maintain peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula.

The second bottom line is to maintain a certain scale of economic and trade cooperation and maintain financial stability. Due to the trade war launched by the US against China and other political reasons, bilateral trade volume and two-way investment have declined in the past two years, and the decoupling of cooperation in the field of high technology has become a reality. In the foreseeable future, it is unrealistic to expect economic and trade cooperation to become the anchor and propeller of bilateral relations. However, a complete decoupling of bilateral economic relations and technical cooperation is not in the interest of any party. The key strategic question is in what areas and to what extent can and must economic and trade cooperation be maintained?

As we note, the China-US phrase one trade deal reached on January 15 is still under implementation. It may be difficult to fully implement the agreement due to COVID-19 and other reasons, but the principled consensus reached by the two sides in the agreement should be maintained. Take soybean, for example, China's market gap is very large, as more than 80 percent of the soybean needs to be imported. If the US soybean farmers are willing to produce and sell at a reasonable price, why not buy large quantities of US soybeans in accordance with the phase one trade agreement?

The other reality that I have to admit it, without the cooperation of the US technology companies like GE, China's large commercial aircraft will operate much later. If China does not buy Boeing aircraft from the US, no other aircraft manufacturer, including Europe's Airbus, can fill the gap in the Chinese aviation market. China already has about 600 Boeing aircraft, which also need technical maintenance such as spare parts. Therefore, the bottom line of China-US cooperation in aviation is unbreakable. For the US, it is also a huge commercial resource that it will never give up.

If iPhones could no longer be bought and used in China due to the deterioration of China-US relations, it would be beyond the bottom line for the users. Similarly, Walmart stores, Marriott Hotels, KFC, McDonald's and Starbucks in the Chinese mainland is all US brands operated by Chinese merchants. Maintaining these brand effects and learning from the laws and rules of the market economy are important ways for China's economic reform. A few US politicians want US companies to divest from China and reduce bilateral trade. We should do the opposite. In recent years, China has taken many measures to open up its economy and encourage foreign investment in China. It is a blow against these American politicians, not a compromise to them.

In the high-tech field, the US government has made every effort to crack down on Chinese companies such as Huawei in the name of national security. Huawei has fought back against US government sanctions by working with US companies and other overseas companies. Huawei's more than 30 US suppliers have been negotiating with the Congress and the US government since last year in an effort to ease sanctions against the company. Huawei insists on multichannel communications with mainstream US media, enterprises, government departments, and judiciary departments, and uses legal methods to handle disputes. As long as Chinese companies stick to the principle of linking up with their US counterparts and strive to take a bigger place in the global industrial chain, Huawei and other Chinese companies will surely survive.

In the field of international finance, China certainly does not want to see the US dollar occupying a hegemonic position forever. It should be noted that it is necessary for China to hold a certain amount of US Treasury bonds for a long time, and China will also respect the status of the US dollar as the world's main reserve currency for a long time. Some days ago, it was said that in order to punish China's behavior in the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic, the US may default by canceling China's purchase of Treasury bonds directly or refusing to pay interest on the bonds. When the news came to light, it immediately stirred up heated debates. Such a violation of the bottom line of international financial rules would cause irreparable financial and credibility losses to the US.

The third bottom line is to resolutely safeguard people-to-people and social exchanges between China and the US. After more than 20 years of retirement, the first Chinese-American ambassador, Ms. Julia Chang Bloch has devoted herself to the cause of people-to-people and educational exchanges. Last March, she wrote in the Global Times that "through the ups and downs of China-US relations, both countries have reached a consensus that the bonds forged by thousands of students across the Pacific Ocean should not be jeopardized." 

The US government is considering banning or restricting Chinese citizens from studying in the US on the grounds of national security. This would be a short-sighted decision deviating from the US international education tradition and foreign policy. In Chang Bloch's view, humanitarian exchanges are now the last pillar of China-US relations and must not be dismantled again.

According to the US census data, the Chinese-American population in the US exceeds 5 million, of which 2.2 million were born in China. In 2017, 3.2 million Chinese tourists went to the US and they spent $35 billion in total that year on travel- and tourism-related goods and services. A total of 2.3 million American tourists set foot in China in 2017 alone. Forcibly preventing population movements and cultural exchanges between China and the US through political means not only brings huge economic and cultural losses to the two countries but also violates humanism and personal freedom. 

The development of China-US relations is currently facing huge obstacles and the possibility of retrograde. This difficult situation may last for a year or two, or for a decade or two, and we need to be fully prepared. However, no matter what happens, the huge material foundation, spiritual wealth, and human resources accumulated since the establishment of diplomatic ties 41 years ago will not be destroyed in an instant. The deep exchanges and cooperation between China and the US are driven by strong internal forces in both societies, which is a major feature of China-US relations. Bilateral relations should not be dominated by the US, and China must and can do a lot.

We can see that those born in the 1990s and the 2000s who want to study and communicate in each other's countries are among those who place their hopes on cooperation between China and the US. It also includes over 1 million middle-aged Chinese-born entrepreneurs and intellectuals in the US, and millions of people in our two countries and around the world who can benefit from our cooperation. Many senior diplomats and social elites in the two countries are still working hard to stabilize bilateral relations.

It is only a matter of time and opportunity for China-US relations to return to the normal track as long as the above three bottom lines are upheld and the overall breakdown of bilateral exchanges is stopped. In July 1989, with the bilateral relations facing serious setbacks, Deng Xiaoping insisted unswervingly that "China-US relations will eventually be better." In November 2017, President Xi Jinping stated in a meeting with President Trump: "With perseverance, we can surely write a new chapter in the history of China-US relations. With perseverance, our two great nations will definitely make new contributions to creating a better future for mankind."

The author is a professor at the School of International Studies, Peking University. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn