THE RECONQUEST OF AMERICA BY THE UNITED STATES

The strategy of the Donald Trump administration to remove Nicolás Maduro from power in Venezuela and replace him with a ruler “friendly” to the United States (presumably the opposition candidate in the 2024 presidential elections, Edmundo González) has a larger objective: to “reconquer” the United States’ undisputed dominance in the Americas.

Trump and his key collaborators have redesigned the United States’ hegemonic policy in the world, acknowledging that they cannot maintain their dominance over the entire planet. The excessive military presence (more than 900 military bases worldwide) and the associated economic costs are too burdensome for the American economy and society. Therefore, they have decided to concentrate their resources and attention on their geographically closest areas: the Americas, Europe, and the Pacific.

While Trump has not relinquished the American presence in the Middle East (as evidenced in Gaza); Central Asia and Africa, it has undoubtedly established that its priority is in what it considers the traditional area of ​​influence of the United States, that is, America, Europe and part of the Asia-Pacific region.

And of course, Trump cannot accept the existence of Latin American countries outside the US sphere of influence, such as Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua, or those with overly “independent” foreign and/or economic policies, like Brazil or Colombia.

Thus, Trump is using the Venezuelan situation to send a clear message first to Cuba and Nicaragua, but also to other Latin American countries that resist following the lines dictated from Washington.

Trump wants all of Latin America to fall in line with Washington in its strategic competition against China, to unconditionally support key US allies, such as Israel in the Middle East (hence the new initiative by Trump's ally, Javier Milei of Argentina, to launch the so-called “Isaac Agreements” in Latin America); and for the region to be favorable for US investment and trade, given the significant advances China has made in the region over the last two decades (for example, Brazil, Chile, Peru, Uruguay, and Bolivia have larger trade relationships with China than with the United States). It remains to be seen whether the military, economic, and diplomatic pressure on the Maduro regime will finally force him to relinquish power and allow the United States to reconquer Venezuela as another piece on its hegemonic chessboard.

The fact is that if Maduro remains in power in the coming months, rejecting the "exit" demanded by Trump (exile in Cuba, Russia, or even Iran), then the US president will have to make a crucial decision. Whether or not to directly attack the Venezuelan government and armed forces, with all the implications this would have on the international community, the global oil market, the way the United States relates to Latin America, and even the diplomatic response of its European allies; anticipating, of course, the condemnation that China and Russia would express for such a blatant violation of international law.

Furthermore, a segment of the movement that supports Trump (MAGA) opposes continued armed interventions in various parts of the world, and the pretext that the attack on Venezuela is to stop the flow of drugs to the United States is untenable, given that practically 70% of that flow arrives through Mexico.

So, Trump found himself between a rock and a hard place, because if Maduro does not give in to the blackmail, it will force Trump to take military action, and such an action could have many unforeseen consequences for the United States and the world.