RUSSIA AND CHINA AT A CRITICAL MOMENT IN THEIR GLOBAL COMPETITION WITH THE UNITED STATES

The arrival of Donald Trump, for his second term as president of the United States, has redefined the global competition between Russia-China and the United States.

On the one hand, Trump did not buy into the entire narrative and policies that the Washington establishment, dominated by neoconservatives and hawks, had pushed during the Biden administration, such as diplomatically isolating Russia, crippling its economy with sanctions, and maintaining military support for Ukraine, all in order to wear down Russia, with the goal of getting it to request an armistice under conditions of weakness; or better yet, to bring about regime change internally.

Trump and his inner circle believed that continuing with this strategy would require a huge amount of economic and military resources to be directed toward the Ukrainian conflict. His priorities of strengthening the U.S. economy, reducing his international commitments, and his very personal ambition to win the Nobel Peace Prize would be thwarted if he continued along the path followed by the Biden administration.

Therefore, Trump has opened an opportunity for Russia to find a solution to the conflict, which would entail painful concessions on the part of Ukraine, but in which Russia would also have to concede important points that it has refused to accept throughout the conflict.

Thus, Trump is willing to force Ukraine—and the greatly weakened European countries that make up NATO and support Ukraine—to accept the loss of the Donbas, the Crimean Peninsula, and parts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson; the veto on Ukraine's NATO membership; and eventually, the lifting of the economic sanctions that the West and many other countries have imposed on Russia.

But Russia would also have to give something in return, such as accepting security guarantees for Ukraine, including the presence of troops from some NATO countries on its territory, and even aerial surveillance by the United States.

The Putin government does not want to accept the stationing of NATO troops in Ukraine, as this would imply a kind of commitment under Article 5 of the NATO Treaty, which specifies that all member countries must intervene in the defense of any of their member states in the event of an attack against them. This would effectively nullify the guarantee being given to Russia that Ukraine will not be part of NATO.

Obviously, there will have to be observers and military personnel from certain countries, accepted by Russia and Ukraine, on the ground to verify a ceasefire first; that the established lines of contact, which could later become border lines, are respected; and that the conditions imposed to normalize the situation between the two countries are met.

Putin must decide soon whether to agree to initiate a possible peace agreement based on these initial proposals, or else Trump, who feels that his age (79) and the international conditions themselves could soon catch up with him (and is desperate to reach an agreement that, according to him, would secure him the Nobel Peace Prize), could close this window of opportunity.

This would allow Washington's "hawks" to convince him to return to the previous scheme (Biden's), which would once again corner Putin into a situation where he has yet to defeat Ukraine; internally, the Russian population and the country's economy are already severely worn down by the war effort; and the international community demands a solution to the conflict as soon as possible.

As for China, the economic war that Trump has intensified (remember that he had already begun it with the application of tariffs during his first term, and Biden continued it) poses a major challenge to the world's second-largest economy. First, Beijing has already understood that the US market and US investments are no longer a reliable source of prosperity and growth for China, as they have been for the past 25 years.

The Europeans, increasingly subservient to Washington's directives, have reluctantly joined the strategy of economic confrontation with China, forcing Xi Jinping to recalibrate how the Asian giant will maintain its position as a leading and constantly growing economy.

Thus, China must now not only focus its efforts on increasing its domestic consumption, but also on maintaining and expanding its markets in the Global South, before the West can close those areas to Chinese products and investments.

Chinese leaders believed they could maintain a constructive relationship with the West, without entering direct confrontation with Washington and the Europeans, while the Chinese economy strengthened and became on par with the United States and the European Union. Neither the Americans nor the Europeans are willing to be the steppingstones to China's triumph and hegemony in the world, and they have decided to stop it by any means necessary.

Therefore, China can no longer delude itself into thinking that, with a few concessions, patience, and a lot of negotiation, it will "convince" the West that it can return to the status quo ante. That's not going to happen, so Beijing must define where and with which countries will pursue its strategy of economic growth, technological innovation, and military buildup, because it is clear that the West will do everything possible to stop it.