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viernes, 28 de febrero de 2025

Trump's new world order: Strongmen make the rules

Zachary Basu

https://www.axios.com/2025/02/28/trump-new-world-order-russia-china-europe

The international order forged after World War II is imploding, squeezed on all sides by the return of strongmen, nationalism and spheres of influence — with President Trump leading the charge.

Why it matters: Trump is openly scornful of international institutions and traditional alliances. Instead, he sees great opportunity in a world dominated by superpowers and dictated through dealmaking.

Between the lines: Trump's approach is based, according to U.S. officials, in "realism" — and the belief that "shared values," international norms and other squishy concepts can never replace "hard power."

  • "The postwar global order is not just obsolete," Secretary of State Marco Rubio declared at his confirmation hearing last month. "It is now a weapon being used against us."

Where the U.S. once helped enforce global norms, such as on trade, Trump is undercutting them.

  • Trump's first term posed newfound threats to 20th-century alliances and structures — NATO, the World Trade Organization, even the UN.
  • A second Trump term could render them virtually obsolete.

Zoom in: The frailty of the rules-based order was exposed this week on the preeminent global stage built to support it.

  • At the UN General Assembly on Monday, the U.S. voted against a resolution condemning Russia for invading Ukraine on the third anniversary of the war.
  • It was the first time since 1945 that the U.S. sided with Russia — and against Europe — on a resolution related to European security, according to the BBC's James Lansdale.
  • Nearly all other Western leaders see Russia as a rogue state and an aggressor. Trump sees a potential partner.

Zoom out: For Europe, which has relied on the U.S. to guarantee its security for the last eight decades, this isn't just a wakeup call: It's an existential challenge that throws the entire transatlantic alliance into question.

  • Germany's conservative leader Friedrich Merz said after his election victory Sunday that his "absolute priority" is to rapidly strengthen Europe so that it can "achieve independence from the USA."
  • "I would never have believed that I would have to say something like that on television," Merz admitted. "But after Donald Trump's statements last week, it is clear that the Americans ... are largely indifferent to the fate of Europe."

Trump officials have expressed open contempt toward Europe on a range of issues beyond collective defense, including trade, migration, free speech and culture.

  • "The European Union was formed in order to screw the United States. That's the purpose of it, and they've done a good job of it," Trump said in the Oval Office this week as he floated 25% tariffs on EU goods.
  • "There's a new sheriff in town," Vice President Vance announced in a fiery speech in Munich this month that painted globalism as the downfall of European society.

The big picture: In today's multipolar world, the U.S., Russia and China are all racing to secure their strategic interests and solidify — or expand — their spheres of influence.

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin dreams of reconstituting the Soviet bloc and has tried to do so by force — invading Ukraine and meddling in elections across the Western world.
  • China, an economic and military superpower under Xi Jinping, is watching Ukraine carefully as it ponders whether to invade Taiwan and cement Xi's legacy through "reunification."

Trump, meanwhile, has broken sharply with his predecessors by calling for the expansion of U.S. territory — potentially to include Canada, Greenland, the Panama Canal and even the Gaza Strip.

  • He's also floated grand bargains with both Beijing and Moscow on everything from trade to nukes.
  • This is great power competition in its purest form, and it's the direction that Trump — to the deep consternation of small and mid-sized countries — seems intent on taking the world.

The bottom line: What's old is new again.

  • 80 years ago, three great powers — the U.S., U.K. and the Soviet Union — gathered in what is now Russian-occupied Crimea to decide the fate of a European continent ravaged by war.
  • There at Yalta, Franklin D. Roosevelt, Winston Churchill and Josef Stalin set the terms for what ultimately led to the Iron Curtain, fueling the decades-long Cold War.
  • "I think that's Donald Trump's mindset. It's certainly Putin's mindset. It's Xi Jinping's mindset. It's not Europe's mindset," former MI6 chief Alex Younger warned last week. "That's the world we're going into."

jueves, 27 de febrero de 2025

Just 33% of Democrats have a favorable view of Israel, Gallup poll finds

83% of Republicans view Israel favorably — an unprecedented partisan gap of 50 points.

By Ben Sales February 26, 2025

https://www.jta.org/2025/02/26/politics/just-33-of-democrats-have-a-favorable-view-of-israel-gallup-poll-finds?preview_id=1879475

Just a third of Democrats have a favorable view of Israel, a steep decline from just a few years ago, according to a Gallup poll.

That’s in contrast to 83% of Republicans who view Israel favorably — a partisan gap of 50 points. Responding to the results, Jewish Democratic leaders said they remained confident in their party’s pro-Israel bona fides — though one sounded notes of caution. Jewish Republicans celebrated the poll.

The poll, published on Monday, is the latest stark sign that Democrats are losing their love for Israel. Previous polls taken during the Israel-Hamas war have shown that Democrats are more likely than Republicans to blame Israel for the fighting and to be more sympathetic to the Palestinians than to the Israelis.

And the gap in this week’s poll shows that, after decades during which Israel was seen as a bipartisan issue, there is now a chasm between how voters from both parties view the country. The poll’s analysis attributed the gap to the Israel-Hamas war as well as polarization over President Donald Trump.

“The 50 points separating Republican and Democratic positivity toward Israel shatters the prior record of 30 points measured last year,” the Gallup page says. “The widening partisan gap likely reflects Democrats’ opposition to Israel’s actions in the Israel-Hamas war. It could also be a reaction to Trump’s strong backing of Israel, highlighted in his meeting with Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House earlier this month.”

The poll demonstrates that, in the span of three years, Democratic favorability ratings for Israel have plummeted 30 points. In 2022, 63% of Democrats viewed Israel favorably. The number dropped to 56% in 2023 and 47% in 2024 — following Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack and the ensuing war in Gaza — before falling to 33% this year.

The percentage of independents who view Israel favorably has also plunged in that time, from 71% in 2022 to 48% this year. The Republican numbers have remained about level during that time, going from 81% to 83%.

Sixty percent of Democrats have an unfavorable view of Israel, the first time most of a partisan group has felt that way. Among independents, the unfavorable figure was 44%. Gallup did not share unfavorable numbers for Republicans.

“There’s no question Israel’s image has suffered among both Democrats and independents over the course of the war, and that’s a fact and its a problem,” said Mark Mellman, president of the Democratic Majority for Israel advocacy group. “Theres a fight going on in the Democratic Party. It’s a hard fight.”

Asked what she makes of the declining numbers, Halie Soifer, CEO of the Jewish Democratic Council of America, attributed the drop to negative opinions of Netanyahu, who has embraced Trump’s proposals.

“Prime Minister Netanyahu’s close alignment with Donald Trump has clouded the way some see Israel,” she said in a statement. “While Netanyahu is undoubtedly a polarizing figure, Jewish Democrats know that the U.S.-Israel relationship transcends any individual leader.”

But both Soifer and Mellman pointed to reasons they were optimistic, mentioning the large majority of Democratic officials who are pro-Israel. Soifer also noted the Jewish vote in last year’s presidential election, which went solidly for Vice President Kamala Harris. She accused Trump of “using and manipulating the [U.S.-Israel] relationship to further his own agenda.”

“Democratic leaders have never wavered in their support of Israel — including their initiation and support of historic levels of military aid to Israel during the Biden administration,” she said. “The vast majority of Jewish Americans are both Democrats and pro-Israel, and proudly support a U.S.-Israel relationship that transcends any individual leader, whether they be in the U.S. or Israel.”

Mellman, who is also a pollster, cited a poll his firm conducted ahead of the Democratic convention last year, in which 62% of Democrats said the United States should support Israel, versus just 7% who opted for Hamas — numbers close to the national average.

“Jews still consider the Democratic party to be a pro-Israel party, and they’re right — we had a pro-Israel platform, we had a pro-Israel Democratic president until this year,” he said. “There’s no question that the Democratic Party remains pro-Israel.”

The Republican Jewish Coalition begged to differ — pointing to an increasing Jewish Republican vote share, if still a minority, in the 2024 election.

“President Donald J. Trump received a historic share of the Jewish vote in 2024, as Democrats continue to hemorrhage support from the American Jewish community,” the group tweeted above a graph of the poll. “The numbers don’t lie: there is only ONE pro-Israel party, and it is the GOP.”

miércoles, 26 de febrero de 2025

Putin Says Trump’s Proposal to Halve Military Spending Is a ‘Good Idea’

Trump suggested cutting military spending in half as part of a deal with Russia and China

by Dave DeCamp February 25, 2025

https://news.antiwar.com/2025/02/25/putin-says-trumps-proposal-to-halve-military-spending-is-a-good-idea/

Russian President Vladimir Putin has backed a proposal from President Trump to cut military spending in half as part of a potential three-way arrangement between the US, Russia, and China.

“I think it’s a good idea. The US would cut by 50%, and we would cut by 50%, and then China would join if it wanted,” Putin said in an interview on Monday.

The Russian leader said he couldn’t speak for China but said Moscow could “come to an agreement with the US, we’re not against it.” He added that it was a “good proposal, and we are ready for a discussion about this.”

On Tuesday, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian was asked if China supported the proposal. He didn’t give a direct answer but said China’s “limited defense spending is completely out of the need of safeguarding national sovereignty, security and development interests, and the need of maintaining world peace.”

As things stand, the US spends significantly more on its military than Russia and China combined. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), in 2023, the US accounted for 37% of global military spending. China came in second but was still far behind, accounting for 12% of military spending, and Russia was in third at 4.5%.

When Trump floated his proposal to cut spending, he also suggested the idea of denuclearization. “There’s no reason for us to be building brand new nuclear weapons. We already have so many you could destroy the world 50 times over or 100 times over. And here we are building new nuclear weapons, and [Russia] is building new nuclear weapons, and China is building new nuclear weapons,” he said.

While Trump seems to favor the idea of limiting military spending and reducing nuclear weapons, he is also advancing policies that will have the opposite effect. The president has backed a budget plan from House Republicans that will raise the US military budget by $100 billion and also signed an executive order to develop a massive new missile defense system, which risks starting a new arms race.

martes, 25 de febrero de 2025

Germany, the giant's debacle

With Russia's war against Ukraine, the cost of bringing gas to Germany has risen, and the country has been in economic stagnation for three years.

Pablo Hiriart

https://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/opinion/pablo-hiriart/2025/02/25/alemania-la-debacle-del-gigante/

February 25, 2025

Munich. - In Germany, the far right and the far left (anti-liberal, anti-immigration, anti-Ukraine, anti-eurozone) have the support of 25 percent of the electorate. Watch out for that, it is not just the intervention of Musk or Trump, but it is the expression of a deep malaise that will continue to grow.

Something is wrong with the world capital of order and efficiency. It is no longer so.

Let's start with the anecdotal. When I left the hotel, I crossed the street at the corner, with the traffic light on for pedestrians: a man on a bicycle ran the stop sign and almost ran me over. I complained and received some unkind shouts in response, and no one turned to look.

The streets were dirty with dust, paper, cups, cigarette butts, and some plastic bottles lying around. The night was falling (early, no later than seven), and 15 or 20 meters away there were little groups of people taking drugs, vagrants, and lost people with their pants halfway down and some with bottles of liquor in their hands.

I was looking for a store where I could buy some fruit and Coca-Cola to take back to my room and write, but the few that were there closed early, and instead there were plenty of table dance halls (two or three per block), some of them open 24 hours, gambling houses that from the outside look like dark dives. The cell phone (Waze) worked intermittently.

A patrol car passed by without anyone bothering to stop taking drugs. A bad neighborhood, close to the station, but that exists almost everywhere. No way.

On Saturday I took a train to Salzburg, Austria, two hours from Munich, and on the way back there was a problem: a change of platform, a delay, and the announcement that the train coming from Germany had a breakdown. They put us on a couple of cars, packed to the rafters, and took us to the German side, to wait for a train to Munich.

It took almost an hour to get there. Once inside, after 10 or 15 minutes they changed us again. We had to wait for another train to arrive, with a freezing wind coming down from the Alps, in the open air, for another hour, while they fitted some kind of poles with the cables.

From there we came –most of us– standing because there were not enough seats in the carriages. The toilets were filthy. A bad day can happen even in Bavaria, I thought.

On Monday I had plane tickets to travel to Cologne, and when I got to the Lufthansa counter, I found out it was cancelled. I understand it happens sometimes. “What time is the flight?” I asked. “Today nothing, and tomorrow I couldn’t tell you” was the answer. I understood that in Cologne there was a strike at a company providing services to the airport. There was no refund of the ticket price, nor coupons to use on another occasion.

I read a book by the journalist Wolfgang Munchau: Kaput. The end of the German miracle, and I share with you some paragraphs about the debacle of the champions of the analog era, losers in the digital era:

The German SAP “continues to be a software giant (but) it is the only one from Germany among the 50 most important technology companies in the world.”

In 2003, “of the top 20 banks in the world, four were German if measured by asset value, and one – Deutsche Bank – if measured by market capitalization. In November 2023, Deutsche Bank is ranked 729th in the world ranking, while Commerzbank was ranked 1,132nd.”

Aware of its lag, “in 2019 the German government decided to invest 5.5 billion euros in computers for schools. A complicated procedure thwarted the project. The main problem was that schools did not have an internet connection and most of the money was spent on wiring and connecting them. This was the case in 2019 and 2020.”

In 2020, “only 33 percent of German students had access to a digital learning platform, while the OECD average was 54 percent.”

German schools used to be among the best in Europe in the OECD's PISA studies, especially in mathematics and science. The latest PISA test puts Germany in a poor 25th place, behind 13 countries in the European Union.

In 2021, “seven out of ten German households were still connected to copper cables, which offer irritatingly slow internet connection speeds.”

The most recent data shows that fiber optic connections only account for 10 percent of all internet connections in Germany, while France has 51.4 percent and Spain a staggering 81.2 percent.”

The prestigious author says that his favorite story, for its illustration, is from an acquaintance of his in the wooded hills southeast of Dortmund:

“A photographer needed to send a collection of photos to a printing company 10 kilometers away. The total data volume was 5.4 GB. He raced between the internet connection and his horse. He burned his photos onto a DVD and gave his computer 20 minutes while he saddled the animal. The horse not only won the race, but after returning home and feeding it, the photographer discovered that the internet transmission had not yet ended”.

Germany has become increasingly dependent on China, while China has followed the opposite trend. The drastic change was noticeable in 2022:

“Exports rose by only three percent, and imports increased by 34 percent… In total, there are now 36 product groups in which the Chinese share is 80 percent and more than 86 product groups in which the share is above 70 percent.”

For example: “Today Germany depends on China for 80 percent of laptops, and 70 percent of cell phones are imported from China, and 87 percent of photovoltaic systems and solar cells come from there.”

And cars? The boss of bosses is no longer Germany: “The Asian giant has overtaken Germany and Japan as the world's largest exporter of cars.”

Due to political pacts with the Green Party, German governments abandoned nuclear energy, which is clean, and were world leaders. Thus, Germany became (2019) completely dependent on Russian gas imports.

With Russia's war against Ukraine, the cost of bringing gas to Germany rose, the country has been in economic stagnation for three years, and buying Trump's ticket to a trade war against China would make things worse.

They blame migration, but it's a false mantra.

lunes, 24 de febrero de 2025

From One Endless War to Another: Trump’s New Military Frontier in Mexico?

https://www.cato.org/blog/one-endless-war-another-trumps-new-military-frontier-mexico

By Brandan P. Buck

February 4, 2025

President Trump was elected in 2024 partly on his promise of ending “America’s endless wars.” The Trump administration says it doesn’t want new wars, boldly declaring that “[w]e will measure our success not only by the battles we win but also by the wars that we end—and perhaps most importantly, the wars we never get into.” While it is too early to judge his sincerity or ability to do so, in the early weeks of his second term it appears like the Trump administration is poised to breathe new life into America’s original “endless war,” that of the war on drugs.

The Trump administration has repeatedly floated the idea of using unilateral military force in Mexico, specifically launching Special Operations Forces (SOF) raids and airstrikes at the drug cartels. Framing the emerging sentiment was Tom Homan, who, during an appearance on Fox News, asserted that President Trump was prepared to “use [the] full might of the United States special operations to take ‘em out.” 

Elon Musk, who opined on X, added to the overheated rhetoric: “I doubt the cartels can be defeated without US Special Operations.” American venture capitalist and Palantir Technologies founder Joe Lonsdale confidently declared on X that “the same US tech & expertise that eliminated thousands of terrorists could overcome cartels and their allies in the Mexican government, root out the fraud and corruption, and eliminate the criminals.”

Adding to the drumbeat, Heritage Foundation scholars Robert Greenway, Andrés Martínez-Fernández, and Wilson Beaver have authored a paper titled “How the President Can Use the U.S. Military to Secure the Border With Mexico.” Among the issues covered in the report was the possibility of using US military force in Mexico, which its authors argue “may be necessary to prompt cooperation from a resistant Mexican government or otherwise contain the cartel threat.” 

The authors are more sensitive to the risks of unilateral military force and do not display the unmoored confidence of some proponents, recommending US-Mexico joint action instead. Still, they nevertheless underestimate the tradeoffs that would emerge should the US commit troops to a cross-border war with the Mexican drug cartels.

To their credit, the authors list numerous perils of unilateral military intervention in Mexico so thoroughly that one wonders how they can sustain their argument. First among the many problems is the lack of actionable intelligence on cartel members and their supply networks. Relatedly, they note that the nature of fentanyl production, unlike other drugs, presents a small visual signature, thereby impeding intelligence gathering. They also concede that actionable intelligence in Mexico is further hampered by corruption in the Mexican government. They note such labs are often located in crowded urban centers, so strikes against them would result in high civilian casualties. They cite that the cartels are estimated to hold approximately 160,000–185,000 well-armed members. They note that the cartel networks have so far withstood the “disruptive effect” of network degradation through the killing of high-profile members and that the cartels have “proven in the past their ability to restructure after fragmentation.” 

Perhaps most chillingly, they note the prospects of cartel reprisals against American citizens and businesses in Mexico and the United States. Finally, they admit that prolonged border militarization, much less a cross-border incursion, would risk other American strategic interests. Ultimately, the authors make a strong case against using unilateral military force in Mexico.

The authors argue that the United States government needs to plan and prepare for such an intervention anyway. This case, despite all the downsides, rests on a belief that the use of unilateral military action against the cartels could “be enough to galvanize the Mexican government into cooperation with the U.S.” Furthermore, they assert that even on its own, a unilateral American military force could inhibit supply chains, impede cartel networks, and create “deleterious, if temporary, effects on cartel trafficking activity and networks.”

The Heritage report is an exercise in contradiction and wish casting. As noted earlier, the authors rightly observe that fentanyl labs are smaller, more difficult to detect, and easier to replace than conventional drug production. Nevertheless, its authors conclude that “with sufficient intelligence and coordinated measures, the potential exists for well-targeted actions to disrupt more vulnerable links in fentanyl supply chains.” How will American technical and human intelligence assets overcome these hurdles? Furthermore, if even tactically successful, how will the degradation of the cartel networks occur fast enough to constitute a strategic success? We do not know because the authors do not tell us.

For the scrupulous reader, one is left to ponder how the US government will succeed where the Mexican government has failed. The authors assure us that the answer lies in heeding the “lessons learned from the experiences of the past failures by the Mexican government to defeat the cartels.” Those lessons, apparently, call for more of the same, like “targeting vulnerable links” in cartel supply chains and “kinetic action” [i.e., killing] of cartel leadership. If insanity is doing the same thing twice and expecting a different result, their proposal certainly qualifies. We should demand a higher bar for supporting new wars than waving off serious objections and engaging in sublime wishful thinking.

The authors’ geopolitical arguments are similarly lacking. Their claim that American military power might force the Mexican government into cooperation neglects the enduring pull of Mexican nationalism and latent anti-American sentiment. On this point, the report’s one historical example, the Pancho Villa Expedition, which they cite positively, is terrible. That expedition failed in its objective of capturing its intended target and significantly damaged bilateral relations for a generation. Rather than serving as a model, the expedition should serve as a warning.

Furthermore, the authors fail to consider the potential diplomatic fallout of damaging relations like undermining cooperation on illegal migration, countering Chinese influence in the Western Hemisphere, and, if recent interventions into the Middle East are any guide, causing an uptick in war-related displacement. Their consolation prize, that unilateral force against the cartels would yield results that would offset damaged relations, similarly rests on a faulty assumption of success. 

Rather, in a reality plagued by the numerous quagmires of the Global War on Terror, a long-term military campaign in Mexico would be as politically and logistically challenging, especially if Mexico resists or if cartel violence escalates in response.

While the Heritage Foundation report thankfully lacks the hubris and bravado of some administration officials and surrogates who have, in recent months, championed this cause, it nevertheless fails to account for the diplomatic fallout and possibility for strategic failure that would likely accompany US military action in Mexico. Despite the authors’ awareness of the pitfalls of such an endeavor, they nevertheless fail to account for how the US government would succeed where the Mexican government has failed. Furthermore, its authors pile numerous analytical leaps atop one another, positing that military success, itself an assumption, would outweigh whatever diplomatic fallout may occur. 

A more sober-minded analysis holds that neither is guaranteed. While the US is undoubtedly suffering through the misery of the fentanyl epidemic and Mexico is enduring the related horror of cartel violence, solutions to both must be based on sound reasoning. Possible solutions should not incur tradeoffs as damaging as the issues they are meant to solve. Heritage’s analysis of the problem, like the braggadocio emanating from some corners of the Trump administration, does neither.

domingo, 23 de febrero de 2025

Germany's Obsession With Defending Israel and Criminalizing Speech Aided AfD's Rise

The far-right party, predicted to finish second in today's election, doesn't need to win—core parts of its agenda have already become mainstream.

James Jackson - Mad in Germany

Drop Site News

On Tuesday evening, in the building of the left-wing newspaper Junge Welt in east Berlin, the rich allegro sounds of the first movement of Mozart’s clarinet quintet filled the halls, played by the Palestinian Nasmé string and clarinet ensemble. Half a dozen heavily armored police officers, ordered there by Berlin’s mayor, stood in the corridor. The tense atmosphere was punctuated by the lyrical strings, while the crowd waited eagerly and somewhat anxiously for the appearance of one of the United Nation’s best-known figures.

A few days earlier, an event featuring Francesca Albanese, the UN Special Rapporteur on the Occupied Palestinian Territories, at the so-called Free University of Berlin had been cancelled after the German capital’s mayor called her appearance “a disgrace”; the Israeli ambassador to Berlin is reported to have requested the cancellation because of Albanese’s critical comments about Israel. A re-scheduled event at Junge Welt was only permitted with the presence of police.

“Talking about Israeli violations of Palestinian rights has always been sensitive in Germany. But the problem has escalated to the point that is really, really scary,” Albanese told the press before her talk. Germany’s support for Israel, known as the Staatsräson, has become a major domestic political issue in recent years and especially since the Israel-Gaza conflict escalated after the Hamas attack on October 7 2023, with the country using harsh laws intended to combat neo-Nazis against Palestinian activists. “After a while it really gets under your skin,” Albanese added. “There has been a crackdown on freedom of expression, of freedom of assembly.”

The newspaper’s publisher, Dietmar Koschmeider, told Drop Site that police were monitoring the event for any illegal speech, including from members of the audience. “What I experienced today, I haven’t seen in 30 years, it’s terrifying,” Koschmeider said. Though the event, which featured readings of children’s poetry and a panel with Albanese and Forensic Architecture’s Eyal Weizman, ended peacefully, participants feared a repeat of last year’s Palestine Congress, where armed police shut down an event and livestream—and arrested a Jewish activist for calling a police officer antisemitic.

What observers both domestic and international have missed, however, is that the German mainstream’s rejection of international law and civil liberties and the rise of its far right are intrinsically linked. Germany’s far-right party, the Alternative for Germany (AfD), has played a key role in forefronting Staatsräson for its own purposes—using the topic as a wedge issue to demonize migrants from Muslim countries as well as left-wing activists.

This Sunday’s election is set to see the best result for the far-right in German post-war history, with AfD predicted to finish second, ahead of both incumbent chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats and the Green Party. But, by pushing anti-Muslim, anti-immigrant, and anti-Palestinian laws to the political forefront, AfD has already mainstreamed its agenda and changed the country.

The right has pushed the boundaries of what is acceptable, manipulating Germany’s culture of reckoning with its past into a commitment to defend Israel at all costs and no matter how extreme its actions. This proxy nationalism is defended by an unholy alliance of right, left, and center. Almost all German political parties, media, police, citizenship authorities, and even universities and cultural institutions are working together to suppress activists, scholars, and even the UN’s special rapporteur.

“I was really shocked by the political pressure on the universities and the anti-Palestinian racism, and I intend to write a report about it,” Albanese, the U.N. rapporteur, told Drop Site after the event. “It’s clear that there is racism against the Palestinians here, negating their identity.”

Under the mayoralty of Kai Wegner of the conservative Christian Democrats—whose party is predicted to lead in Sunday’s national elections—the city of Berlin has turned into a flashpoint for cracking down on pro-Palestinian speech, with protesters regularly brutalized, including Jewish students at a university occupation and women at marches protesting violence against women, as well as at a memorial for people killed by a right-wing terrorist.

Wegner had previously said in September 2024 at a town hall meeting that in Gaza, “a genocide isn’t taking place, period.” After a United Nations special committee found Israel’s warfare methods “consistent with genocide,” his office responded to a Drop Site request for comment that “there is no reason to correct or add to the statements.”

“Zionist McCarthyism”

Germany has been struck with what political analyst Hans Kundnani calls “Zionist McCarthyism”—the cancellation of events, funding, media campaigns, and police brutality regularly administered to those who criticize Israel’s occupation of Palestine and the brutal war in Gaza. Even leading human rights groups and senior European government figures have warned of this repression. “Freedom of speech is at stake in Germany,” said Petra De Sutter, Belgium’s deputy prime minister. Amnesty International condemned Berlin police violently shutting down a protest due to what the police called the “public safety risk” of foreign languages, particularly Arabic, being spoken and sung.

This McCarthyism across the political spectrum was accelerated and instrumentalized by the far-right, who realized that portraying antisemitism as primarily foreign or left-wing would help achieve its political goal of demonizing Muslims and Arabs.

The early stages of this crackdown was branded “atonement gone haywire” by philosopher Susan Neiman, who wrote a book, Learning From the Germans, about the country’s memory culture. Nieman, who is Jewish, swiftly disowned her own book’s thesis after encountering the “straightforward McCarthyite practices in which many people, from the director of the Jewish Museum in Berlin to the Palestinian German journalist Nemi El-Hassan, have been forced from their jobs, and many others have been denied funding, prizes, or performance space.”

The party has also arrived on the global stage, with explicit support from Elon Musk—who, according to the Washington Post, has used X to amplify AfD, tweeted multiple times that “only AfD can save Germany,” and invited its candidate for chancellor Alice Weidel to a discussion on X. AfD was suddenly sharing space with the ascendant global far right and reportedly meeting Vice President JD Vance at the Munich Security Conference—while Scholz was snubbed.

In late 2024, the AfD became the first far-right party to win a state election in Germany since the Nazis. In 2025, a post-war political taboo—known as the “firewall”—against collaboration with the far-right was loudly broken with the conservative Christian Democrat opposition working with them to pass a Bundestag (German parliament) resolution about restricting the right to asylum. Liberal Germans were outraged, with hundreds of thousands going out on the streets to protest.

Though openly embracing Nazism is effectively illegal, the party’s co-founder Alexander Gauland notoriously downplayed the Nazi dictatorship as a mere “birdshit” in one thousand proud years of German history—allowing the party to flirt with Nazi rhetoric and advance a xenophobic nationalist politics. Firebrand state leader Björn Höcke has been convicted twice under anti-Nazi laws for using the Nazi paramilitary slogan, “Alles für Deutschland” (everything for Germany) and at a party conference recently delegates celebrated their candidate Alice Weidel’s speech with “Alice für Deutschland.”

Under the comparative stability of former, longterm chancellor Angela Merkel, Germany was often internationally celebrated as a liberal country that had admirably faced the weight of its dark history. Welcoming refugees, ruling out cooperating with the far right, and repenting for the crimes of the Nazis made the erstwhile homeland of National Socialism appeared to Europe’s liberal classes to a powerful bulwark against the rise of the far right.

But it was also Merkel who coined the Staatsräson that made German support of Israel a “reason of state” for the country, a key part of national interest and identity, from the stage of the Israeli Knesset in 2008. Almost all German political parties, alongside local authorities and even cultural institutions have joined together in an alliance reaching from right and far-right through the center and even parts of the left to defend the “Reason of State” and crack down on migration from supposedly antisemitic countries, citizenship for foreigners, and civil liberties such as freedom of speech and assembly and academic freedom.

As a result, recent years have seen drastic repression against solidarity with Palestine in Germany, with criticism of Israel often portrayed as antisemitic. This has obviously only accelerated since Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7, 2023 and Israel’s brutal war on Gaza.

Indeed, during her X space with Musk, AfD party co-leader Weidel described Adolf Hitler as a socialist, adding after that “only the leftish [sic] Palestinians criticize [pro-Israel] policies here. You have a deeply vested antisemitism within the leftish movement, and it was always that case.”

“The nationalist party has questionable interest in protecting Israel, but doing so helps wave away Nazi allegations while also pushing the notion that Jewish life is at risk from imported antisemitism,” say Chris Reiter and Will Wilkes in their forthcoming book about German decline, Broken Republik. The idea that antisemitism comes from abroad is “much easier for mainstream Germans to accept than the domestic variety. The assertion, which isn’t backed up by official statistics, helps promote an agenda that seeks to clamp down on migration from Muslim countries,” fitting right into the AfD’s agenda. Reiter & Wilkes point out that Israel isn’t mentioned once in the AfD’s platform, but “Islam” and “Muslim” are mentioned 50 times.

Daniel Weissmann, a political communications scientist who studies antisemitism research, said the AfD “didn’t pioneer this idea that antisemitism is left-wing, but they jumped on it at the perfect time. The AfD made this explicitly political—they pioneered this as political weapon within the parliamentary framework with the first draft of the BDS resolution” in 2019.

Many view this non-binding Bundestag resolution that branded the Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions movement against Israel as antisemitic as a watershed moment in the development of a political omertà around Israel. Welcomed at the time by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and various Israel lobby organizations, the initial proposal came from the AfD, which explicitly claimed BDS “originated in antisemitic and anti-Zionist initiatives of Arab groups.”

“And then, of course, all the other parties immediately panicked and said that we must not leave this to the AfD under any circumstances,” said historian Barbara Stollberg-Rilinger, rector of Berlin’s Wissenschaftskolleg at a press conference. It shouldn’t look as if the AfD is the only party here that is doing something against antisemitism, which would be quite ironic.” An adapted version of the resolution—which likened BDS’s “Don’t Buy” stickers slapped on Israeli products to the Nazi boycott of Jewish goods—passed with support of all parties except the left-wing party, Die Linke, and the AfD, who voted for their own versions. (Die Linke has seen a last minute rise in the polls and is predicted to win enough votes to cross the 5% threshold to return to parliament.)

“The AfD is the one that got the ball rolling. They are driving the policies of the other parties,” agreed Weissmann.

In November 2024 a similar resolution provocatively titled “Never Again is Now” applying the disputed IHRA definition of antisemitism—which clearly limits criticism of Israel—to research and arts funding also passed. This time the AfD voted with almost all the other parties. The Staatsräsonquerfront—a term I have coined to describe an alliance from across the political divide to defend Germany’s reason of state—sprang into action.

When the law was passed, senior AfD politician and granddaughter of Hitler’s finance minister Beatrix von Storch celebrated the motion, claiming in a speech to the Bundestag that its “suggested solutions go in our direction.” The law promises to “exhaust repressive possibilities, especially in criminal and citizenship law” to fight antisemitism, which von Storch translated into “put Muslim Antisemites on the plane and, bye, back home.”

In her speech, Storch also mocked the outraged gasps when the AfD started to talk about “imported Muslim antisemitism” but pointed to the motion’s language which points to “antisemitism from the countries of North Africa and the Middle East” which she called liberal “Green codes for Muslim, imported antisemitism.”

“The Staatsräson was there before the AfD but the AfD instrumentalized it,” said Ilyas Saliba, research fellow at Berlin’s Global Public Policy Institute. Saliba is also a member of the KriSol Alliance for Critical Scholarship that formed in response to the German education minister creating lists of academics to strip funding after they signed a public letter to defend their students’ right to protest for Palestine.

The idea to strip these critical academics of funding had come from the powerful Bild tabloid newspaper, which is vociferously pro-Israel and makes their journalists sign that they agree with Israel’s “right to exist” alongside their employment contracts. The education minister seemed to think attacking academia in the name of the Staatsräson would have been an easy political win—with the measure only being stopped by a small number of defiant civil servants.

“With more vote share for the AfD, the other parties have moved in their direction - this helped them morph the Staatsräson into something that has become very dangerous for civic space, academic and artistic freedom, and freedom to protest” continued Saliba.

Critics charge that the AfD have realized the ways that they can manipulate both Germany’s vaunted “memory culture” and strict infringements on free speech. “For the AfD there’s been a rapidly growing awareness of the opportunities presented by Israel,” said Deborah Feldman, author of both Unorthodox and Judenfetisch, about Germany’s frequently bizarre and fetishizing relationship with Jews. “All of the laws designed to keep the far right from power can be used to target their opponents by presenting themselves as the protectors of Jews. Initially Nazis tried to argue for free speech but they realized they could become beneficiaries of those laws by using them against their opponents.”

Indeed, from the campaign trail in the east Berlin district of Lichtenberg, von Storch told Drop Site that “‘From the river to the sea’ means kill all Jews—I don’t think we should have that free speech, I don’t think that’s a good idea.” In 2018, when von Storch was investigated for online incitement for anti-Arabic comments, Weidel decried “censorship” and then-leader Gauland said, “freedom of opinion came to an end in 2017.” But since 2019, AfD has become one of the strongest advocates for curtailing the wrong type of speech from the wrong type of people.

Feldman thinks that the AfD was effectively following Netanyahu’s footsteps. “At some point the far right realized that the best way to normalize their issues was to align with the Israeli far right. Israel would use the narrative of Holocaust memory to achieve this exceptional status to break rules,” she said.

Weissmann agrees. “The AfD recognize this narrative for the cultural power it has, but it happened at the time that the global right saw a blueprint in Israel for itself—the AfD would have never adopted the narrative of Holocaust memory if there hadn’t been Israel as a shining ethnically pure city on the hill.”

Liberal Israelis charge that this works both ways, with an op-ed in the Haaretz broadsheet arguing that “under the patronage of Musk and Trump the Israeli government is training the new Nazis in Germany” and that “the Israeli silence in front of [the AfD] and Musk protection is a critical milestone on the way to their full legitimacy in Germany.” Israel’s “exceptional status” is perhaps more obvious in Germany than elsewhere, with the country, a co-founder and major funder of the International Criminal Court, making clear that it would not implement an outstanding warrant against Netanyahu.

“The last 18 months have been to the favor of the AfD,” said Matthias Goldman, Professor of international law at EBS Law School, amid “large scale debates about migration, the conflict in Gaza and the relationship with international law.”

“There has been a turn away,” he continued, “from formerly held beliefs in an internationally open order and the rule of law and fundamental rights. Questioning that goes quite some way towards an ethno-nationalist framework advocated by the AfD from the start. The more you think in terms of national interests and less in terms of human rights or global interests the more that will benefit a political force like the AfD.”

United for Democracy?

In January, when Friedrich Merz, the conservative Christian Democrat leader and frontrunner for German chancellor, announced plans to vote alongside the AfD to radically reform asylum law, hundreds of thousands went out into the streets to protest.

Merz, who served on the powerful U.S. investment firm BlackRock’s advisory board when he stepped back from frontline politics during Merkel’s tenure, was seen by his CDU party as an archconservative prince across the water. After his return to politics, he promised to “halve” the AfD by distancing himself from his longtime rival Merkel’s relatively liberal migration policies. This has clearly not worked, with the far-right party more than doubling in popularity since Merz became leader.

“The more the other parties talk about the core issues of the radical right and the more they try to copy the policies that the radical right, the more successful these parties become,” said Heiko Giebler, a political scientist at WZB Berlin Social Science Center.

Merz has increasingly adopted AfD-style rhetoric on migrants. During the debate on his proposed law with the AfD, Merz falsely claimed that there are “daily gang rapes coming from asylum seekers.” In September, Merz made a similar claim that “far more than half come of gang rapes come from migrants or people with migrant backgrounds.” These claims were based on an erroneous interpretation of statistics, which initially came from AfD requests, according to an analysis by Drop Site News.

“The police crime statistics for” both states of North Rhine-Westphalia and Berlin “show that in the majority of cases, the suspects identified in gang rapes … did not have German citizenship (54%)” a CDU spokesperson told Drop Site, adding that “police crime statistics only record citizenship, not the broader migration background. The latter covers a larger group of people."

These statistics only refer to suspects, not criminal convictions, while Berlin and North Rhine Westphalia are both relatively diverse states and not representative of broader German society—this would be akin to cherry-picking crime statistics from Louisiana and Georgia and claiming they represent the whole of the U.S..

The recent protests echoed those from early 2024, when over a million and a half people took to the streets to protest a supposedly secret plan for “remigration”—deportation and repatriation of non-ethnic Germans—which was followed by a dip in the AfD’s support. In a sign of how rapidly the AfD has shifted the Overton window, it now proudly advertises the formerly scandalous term “remigration” on posters and at party conferences, as AfD surged to its former height of 22 percent in the polls.

Some are also skeptical of the sincerity of the protests themselves, seeing the mostly white German crowds as, at best, silent and, at worst, complicit in the repression. “Over the past eighteen months, Germany has consistently demonstrated that while it may stage grand performances of anti-fascism, it remains deeply complicit in upholding the very structures of fascism,” said anti-Zionist Jewish writer Emilia Roig, who was targeted with wanted posters outside a university event where she was due to speak, on her Substack.

“Those who actively challenge these structures—whether through their politics, activism, or public speech—are not celebrated as defenders of democracy but punished, ostracized, and vilified” she continued, asking “do you really trust the people who claim to oppose the AfD but refuse to condemn the Israeli government’s far-right policies?”

Germany’s Dual “Loyalty Declaration”

In late January 2025, Dror Dayan, a filmmaker and activist for the German branch of Jewish Voice for Peace, appeared before Berlin’s main criminal court in Moabit.

Dayan had provocatively uttered the phrase, “From the river to the sea, Palestine will be free” on social media in response to an article in November 2023 saying that the slogan should be prosecuted. Since Hamas was officially labeled a terror group in Germany in the wake of the October 7 attack, the phrase has been criminalized under the same law that bans the swastika—despite multiple courts finding any link between the slogan and Hamas to be spurious.

Reporters were not allowed to bring in their laptops to the court, and the police representative due to give an expert opinion on why the slogan is linked to Hamas called in sick, so the case was delayed. “I think it’s just another repression tactic,” said Dayan. “The point is to just make people tired, to not come, to not show solidarity… the German justice system was too cowardly to take it on.”

The German chapter of anti-Zionist group Jewish Voice for Peace has been a key target of repression by the German state, with its bank account illegally shut down in March 2024, and many of its mostly middle-aged Israeli activists have been detained at protests for signs like “another Jew for a free Palestine” and “stop the genocide in Gaza.”

In a sign of how commonplace the repression of journalists and activists has become, the former editor-in-chief of Junge Welt, Stefan Huth, was arrested just after the hearing was adjourned, with an officer claiming somewhat incredulously that he had recognized him from a demonstration against the Covid lockdowns in the summer of 2021, an allegation Huth vociferously denies. “As a journalist I don’t go to protests anyway, and I don’t share the politics of those demonstrations.”

Citizenship—and with it the bounds of German identity—has emerged as a central battleground. Reforms brought in by Olaf Scholz’s outgoing centrist “traffic-light coalition” liberalized dual citizenship, but allowed more invasive, political questions during the “loyalty declaration” section of the application process.

Applicants for citizenship in the southwestern city of Stuttgart are asked, “What do you think of the antisemitic and anti-Israel events that have taken place in Germany and elsewhere?,” according to documents obtained by Drop Site—meaning pro-Palestine protests during Israel’s assault on Gaza. It also asks, “Do you support Israel’s right to exist?”

Drop Site asked the Stuttgart municipality press office to comment about the new citizenship laws requiring applicants to answer questions about “the recognition of the special and close relationship between the Federal Republic of Germany and the State of Israel, in particular that Israel's security and right to exist are part of German Staatsräson.” The press office responded that “if Israel's right to exist is called into question, the naturalization authority examines whether this is due to an anti-Semitic attitude.”

One applicant in the state of Baden Württemberg also received a question asking leading and highly political questions, taking Qu’ranic verses out of context. The Stuttgart office told web page islamiq.de that this was a “one-off mistake” that they “deeply regret.”

Helen Fares, an activist and former public TV presenter whose call for a boycott of Israeli goods was also reportedly included in the list of issues for applicants to comment on, called it “both appalling and deeply revealing.”

“This is not just an isolated “mistake”—it is a reflection of a broader, systemic attempt to criminalize any solidarity with the indigenous people of Palestine and to silence those who speak up against apartheid and genocide,” she said, calling the claim “neither credible nor acceptable” because “Germany’s institutions reflexively shield themselves from accountability when it comes to suppressing pro-Palestinian voices. This is not an accident—it is a continuation of a calculated crackdown on dissent.”