Talking to America: How Far Will Iran Go?

by Ted Snider 

Posted on April 10, 2025

https://original.antiwar.com/Ted_Snider/2025/04/09/talking-to-america-how-far-will-iran-go/

In March, U.S. President Donald Trump sent a letter directly to Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, informing him that Iran has two months to negotiate a nuclear deal with the U.S. and that, if he refuses to do so, the risk of military action against Iran’s civilian nuclear facilities would dramatically increase. “If they don’t make a deal,” Trump said, “there will be bombing. It will be bombing the likes of which they have never seen before.”

Trump hinted at that threat again on April 7, saying, “You know, it’s not a complicated formula. Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. That’s all there is,” and that “I think if the talks aren’t successful with Iran, I think Iran is going to be in great danger.”

Iran has been willing to negotiate a new nuclear agreement with the United States. Iran’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian, was elected on a promise of direct negotiations with the United States, and Khamenei supported him.

But that hope exploded on February 4 when Trump signed a presidential memorandum endorsing maximum pressure sanctions on Iran. Pezeshkian reversed his policy, declaring that Iran “will not yield to foreign pressure.” A month later, Pezeshkian responded to U.S. threats, insisting that “the language of threats and coercion is absolutely unacceptable… It is unacceptable for someone to come along and say, ‘Don’t do this, don’t do that, or else.’ I won’t come to negotiate with you. Go do whatever the hell you want.”

Direct negotiations with the U.S. have been ruled out by Iran until “there is a change in the other side’s approach.” However, commenting on Iran’s response to Trump’s letter, Pezeshkian said that “Although in our response the topic of direct negotiation between the two sides has been rejected, it has been stated that the path to indirect talks is open.”

On April 7, Trump stunned everyone by announcing that the U.S. and Iran would meet for “direct talks” on April 12 and that the talks would be held at “almost the highest level.” It has now been reported that Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff will lead the U.S. delegation, and foreign minister Abbas Araghchi will lead Iran’s.

Though confirming the talks, Iran denies that they will be direct. Iranian officials say that officials from the U.S. and Washington will meet in Oman on April 12 for “indirect talks.” American and Iranian negotiators will be in separate rooms, and Omani diplomats will carry their messages back and forth. According to Iran, subsequent direct talks would be contingent upon the indirect talks going well. Though Araghchi maintains that “[f]or the time being, indirect is our preference. And we have no plan to alter it to direct.”

Iran’s reluctance to negotiate directly has two sources. The first is Pezeshkian refusal to “yield to foreign pressure” and negotiate under threats. The second is Khamenei’s attention to history. Khamenei has pointed to the U.S. illegally pulling out of the JCPOA nuclear agreement, saying, “One must not negotiate with a government like the US government. Negotiations with it is not wise, it is not intelligent, and is not honorable.” Later, Khamenei would further in a post that “[t]his same US president tore up the signed JCPOA agreement. How could we hold negotiations with US when we know they don’t fulfill their commitments?”

But the negotiations over the structure of the negotiations will be less challenging than the negotiations over what will be up for negotiations. Iran will be willing to negotiate verifiable limits on its nuclear program in exchange for sanction relief and an open door back to relations with the West because they continue to insist that they do not have a nuclear weapons program, an insistence with which the latest U.S. intelligence agrees. The just published 2025 Annual Threat Assessment states that the intelligence community “continue[s] to assess Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and that Khamenei has not reauthorized the nuclear weapons program he suspended in 2003.”

But, as a signatory to the the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, Iran has “the inalienable right to a civilian program that uses “nuclear energy for peaceful purposes.” Iran will not surrender this right. And that could be a problem because National Security Advisor Mike Waltz recently explained that the U.S. position is that Iran would have to dismantle its civilian nuclear program. He told CBS’s Face the Nation that the U.S. demands “full disarmament.” He says Iran “has to give up its program” and stop “enrichment,” seemingly meaning that Iran must cease enriching uranium even for civilian purposes. “The full program,” he said, “give it up or there will be consequences.”

The second obstacle would appear if the U.S. insists, as Waltz has suggested that they will, that Iran also has to give up its “strategic missile program.” Iran’s missile program is integral to its defense strategy, and its value has gone up with the recent degradation of its front-line proxy defense partnerships. Iran is unlikely to put its missiles on the negotiating table.

That the U.S. and Iran will open the door to talks this weekend is a very positive development. Though the media focus is on whether those talks will be direct or indirect, what will really determine their chance of success is not their format but their scope. If the talks remain tightly focused on verifiable limitations on Iran’s peaceful, civilian nuclear program, they have a real chance of succeeding; if they widen the focus to dismantling Iran’s legal civilian nuclear program, then the talks are likely dead before they even begin.

Majority of Americans hold unfavourable view of Israel, Pew poll finds

Even among traditionally pro-Israel Republicans, there have been large shifts in negative sentiment amid Israel's war on Gaza

By MEE staff

Published date: 9 April 2025

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/majority-americans-hold-unfavourable-view-israel-pew-poll-finds

More than a majority of Americans now have a negative view of Israel, according to a recent poll, underscoring the fallout from Israel’s war on Gaza.

According to a Pew Research poll published on Tuesday, 53 percent of Americans now express an unfavourable opinion of Israel, up from 42 percent in March 2022 - before the 7 October 2023 Hamas-led attack on southern Israel and Israel’s decimation of the enclave.

Democrats are still more likely than Republicans to express a negative opinion of Israel by 69 percent to 37 percent, respectively. But the number of Republicans who hold negative opinions on Israel has increased 10 percentage points since 2022.

Young Republicans, those under the age of 50, especially, are now more likely to have an unfavourable view of Israel, with 50 percent polling in that direction. That gap underscores the rise of popular alternative conservative media voices like Candice Owens and Tucker Carlson, who have become more open to challenging Israel.

Among Democrats, those with a negative view of Israel has also grown. The 69 percent of Democrats with that view marks a 16 percent increase since 2022, when 53 percent of Democrats viewed Israel unfavourably.

A majority of Americans across every demographic on both sides, with the exception of Republicans aged 18-49, agree that Israel's war on Gaza was both "personally" important to them and US interests.

Jewish Americans have been moving away from Israel in recent years. This trend picked up over domestic differences within Israel over the country’s Supreme Court but has been turbocharged since the war in Gaza erupted. However, at least 73 percent of Jewish Americans still hold a favourable view of Israel.

After them, White evangelicals hold the highest favourable view of Israel at 72 percent. Notably, more White Protestants and Catholics now hold unfavourable views of Israel at 50 percent and 53 percent, respectively.

Muslim Americans hold the strongest unfavourable views of Israel, with 81 percent against and just 19 percent viewing Israel favourably.

Americans don't want to 'take over' Gaza

The poll was conducted just before Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited the White House earlier this week. His trip came amid rising tensions between the US, Israel and Iran, and with a Gaza ceasefire process that is stalled as Israel continues to pummel the Gaza Strip.

US President Donald Trump's handling of Israel's war on Gaza garnered mixed results among those polled, with 31 percent saying he is favouring the Israelis too much and 29 percent saying he's striking the right balance. Just three percent said he was favouring Palestinians too much, with the highest chunk of respondents, 37 percent, saying they were unsure.

More than half of Americans think that a two-state solution "cannot be found for Israel and an independent Palestinian state to co-exist peacefully", while 46 percent still think it can be done.

Trump also reiterated his previous plan to "take over" the Gaza Strip during his meeting with Netanyahu, an idea that 36 percent of Americans think Trump will not pursue, according to the Pew poll.

Polling showed the idea is unpopular with Americans, with 62 percent opposing the US "taking over Gaza", including 49 percent who strongly oppose it. Just 15 percent support the plan.

Trump also announced during Netanyahu’s visit that the US would begin “direct talks" with Iran on a nuclear deal on Saturday. Tehran says the talks will be indirect.

Netanyahu is seen as an advocate for military strikes on Iran. One of Trump’s top advocates in the US media, conservative podcaster Carlson, wrote ahead of Netanyahu’s visit how “now is the worst possible time for the United States to participate in a military strike on Iran”.

“We can’t afford it. Thousands of Americans would die. We’d lose the war that follows. Nothing would be more destructive to our country,” he said.

According to the survey, a slim majority of Americans, 52 percent, have little or no confidence in Netanyahu to “do the right thing regarding world affairs”.

Among Jewish Americans, 53 percent have little to no confidence in Netanyahu.

 

Tariff blackmail cannot intimidate China: Global Times editorial

By Global Times

Published: Apr 08, 2025

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202504/1331627.shtml

The US government, under the guise of "reciprocity," has announced tariff hikes on all its trade partners, including China, provoking widespread outrage in the international community. The Chinese government's position on opposing the US abuse of tariffs emphasizes that the US has used tariffs as a tool for extreme pressure and to pursue selfish interests. Previously, China announced a series of countermeasures, and the international community has clearly seen China's firm determination and will to defend its sovereignty, security, development, and to uphold international fairness and justice. Tariff blackmail will not intimidate China, nor will it undermine justice. China does not provoke trouble, nor is it intimidated by trouble. Pressuring and threatening are not the right way in dealing with China.

China's firm stance on striking countermeasures stems from the fact that the US' reason for tariff hikes is utterly unfounded. Under the guise of addressing "unfair foreign trade practices," the US has slapped high tariffs on its global trade partners. In reality, this is nothing more than protectionism and unilateral bullying - political blackmail wrapped in the cloak of economic means. Such actions blatantly violate the core rules of the World Trade Organization and trample on China's legitimate rights in global trade, as well as its long-standing efforts to open up. The so-called "reciprocal tariffs" have caused enormous damage to the world trade system and global supply chains, and they will pose a serious drag on global economic growth. 

China is an ancient civilization known for its traditions of etiquette and respect. The Chinese people value sincerity and trust as the foundation of their relationships. However, standing firm in the face of pressure and threats is equally a defining trait of the Chinese spirit. Looking back at history, China stood tall even in times of poverty and weakness - much less will it ever yield to hegemony today. Compared to the US government's initiation of a trade war with China in 2017, today we have a much stronger capacity to withstand pressure, richer experience in handling struggles, and comprehensive preparations to face challenges. China's industrial system and technological autonomy have significantly improved, its domestic market and economic structure continue to optimize, and its multilateral cooperation and trade partnerships have become more diverse. These factors give China greater confidence in the face of risks. As Bloomberg put it, "China has already trade-war-proofed its economy." 

More importantly, China stands on the side of morality and historical righteousness. The US' latest round of tariff hikes targets more than 180 countries and regions around the world, including even the United Nations-designated "least developed countries." Some commentators have noted that such high tariffs will deal a devastating blow to vulnerable nations with narrow economic structures and heavy reliance on exports. China's decisive countermeasures against the erroneous practices of the US not only defend its own interests but also actively uphold a fair and free world trading system.

China's countermeasures are not a call to confrontation, but a declaration to defend fairness. Amid the US repeatedly wielding the tariff stick, China has consistently responded with reason, strength, and restraint. Behind this calm and composed approach lies China's firm understanding that the key is to focus on doing its own things well. No matter how the US cracks down on or pressures it, China remains steadfast in its development and progress. More importantly, China is committed to the path of international fairness and justice, and is willing to contribute certainty to global progress through its own development. This reflects the great vision of the Chinese nation, embodying the value pursuit of promoting the building of a community with a shared future for mankind.

The trade volume between China and the US is enormous. The high tariffs imposed by the US will inevitably impact the Chinese economy in the short term. China has ultimately made a "difficult but correct" decision. This confidence stems not only from China's economic strength but also from the fact that countries globally are participating in economic globalization and benefiting from it, as well as from the depth and breadth of economic and trade cooperation between China and the US. 

After the US announced, "reciprocal tariffs," Gavin Newsom, the governor of California, the largest manufacturing base in the US, immediately stated, "California is not Washington," and that his administration will pursue its own "strategic trade relationships" with international trade partners. This demonstrates that the global trade system, based on industrial chain division of labor and mutual benefit among countries, possesses a robust vitality that cannot be shaken by any political decision lacking realistic logic.

No one can stop China's development, and China-US economic and trade cooperation aligns with the will of the people. The trend toward economic globalization is an inevitable direction. Time will ultimately prove that the tide of history is unstoppable, moving forward relentlessly, and the Chinese people possess sufficient wisdom and strength to meet challenges, both today and in the future. China will continue to firmly stand on the right side of history and on the side of human civilization's progress, working together with the international community to contribute greater strength to humanity's peace and development. At the same time, we also urge Washington to immediately stop unilateral tariff measures and to resolve trade differences in an equal, respectful, and reciprocal manner.

Thousands rally in Washington to demand end to Gaza genocide, crackdown on pro-Palestine students

'With every arrest and threat, our movement shows up stronger,' says one protestor

Rabia İclal Turan |06.04.2025 - Update : 07.04.2025

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/thousands-rally-in-washington-to-demand-end-to-gaza-genocide-crackdown-on-pro-palestine-students/3529419

WASHINGTON

Thousands of people from across the United States gathered in Washington, DC, on Saturday to demand an end to Israel’s brutal assault on Gaza and the Trump administration’s intensifying crackdown on pro-Palestinian students and activists.

The rally dew support from more than 300 organizations and saw demonstrators convene at the intersection of 3rd Street NW and Pennsylvania Avenue NW. Participants then marched to key sites, including the headquarters of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), calling for the release of detained pro-Palestinian students and academics such as Palestinian activist Mahmoud Khalil and Turkish student Rumeysa Ozturk.

The protest was co-sponsored by several advocacy groups, including the Palestinian Youth Movement, The People’s Forum, Jewish Voice for Peace and the ANSWER Coalition.

Protesters carried signs and posters depicting Palestinian children killed in Gaza and students arrested or deported for their activism, denouncing what they described as an attack on civil liberties under the Trump administration.

“We are so horrified about the treatment that students in the United States are facing just for saying genocide is bad,” said Ann Wright, a member of Code Pink and a former US diplomat, in an interview with Anadolu. “Some of them are getting detained, some deported. It is a horrible thing that’s happening in this country to people who simply have humanity.”

One such student, Mahmoud Khalil -- a green card holder and recent Columbia University graduate who helped organize campus protests last year, has become a symbol of the protest movement after being detained for his pro-Palestinian advocacy.

Suzanne Ali, a member of the Palestinian Youth Movement in the Bay Area, told Anadolu the rally demonstrated the resilience of the movement despite escalating repression. “We’re here with tens of thousands of people from across the United States, in defiance of the administration’s attempts to suppress our speech and detain our students,” she said. “With every arrest and threat, our movement shows up stronger.”

For many participants, the rally was deeply personal.

“I have been concerned about Palestine for 40 something years. This is the worse it’s ever been,” said Joni Nacef, a protester who traveled to the capital for the event. “It feels really hard right now in the United States. I just want to be able to do something.”

Another protester, Danny Moore, said, “I’m here because I want to support everyone being out in the streets to stop genocide, to stop oppression, to stop oligarchy, to stop dictatorship, which is where we're going. I don’t want to see any more people killed.”

Saturday’s march in Washington was part of a nationwide day of action, with similar rallies taking place in cities across the country.

Israeli Strikes on Gaza Kill 43 More Palestinians, Including Many Children

Gaza's Government Media Office said nearly 500 children have been killed by US-backed Israeli attacks since March 18

by Dave DeCamp April 6, 2025

https://news.antiwar.com/2025/04/06/israeli-strikes-on-gaza-kill-43-more-palestinians-including-many-children/

On Sunday, the Israeli military killed at least 43 Palestinians in Gaza, medical sources told Al Jazeera, as US-backed Israeli strikes continue to pound targets across the Strip.

Photos and videos coming out of Gaza show that many children were among the dead and wounded. According to the Palestinian news agency WAFA, at least nine children were killed by Israeli shelling and airstrikes on the al-Tuffah neighborhood of Gaza City.

Heavy Israeli attacks also hit southern Gaza, and at least 19 Palestinians were killed by strikes in the southern city of Khan Younis. Israeli troops have expanded their ground offensive in the area to capture the territory between Khan Younis and Rafah.

Gaza’s Government Media Office said on Sunday that since Israel restarted its genocidal war on March 18, which it did with full US support, 490 Palestinian children have been killed. The office said in a statement that the overall death toll had reached 1,350.

“The numbers alone are sufficient to confirm the existence of a systematic and deliberate policy of killing Palestinian children in the Gaza Strip at the hands of the Israeli occupation army,” the statement said.

Also on Sunday, the Israeli military said 10 rockets were fired from Gaza, an attack Hamas’s military wing, the al-Qassams Brigade, took credit for. Most projectiles were intercepted, but one landed in the Israeli city of Ashkelon. According to The Times of Israel, one man was “lightly wounded,” and several other Israelis were treated for “acute anxiety.”

Israeli Official: Palestinians Will Be Removed From Gaza After Hamas Eliminated

The senior official explained that Tel Aviv was “very serious” about implementing President Donald Trump’s plan to cleanse Gaza.

by Kyle Anzalone April 4, 2025

https://news.antiwar.com/2025/04/04/israeli-official-palestinian-will-be-removed-from-gaza-after-hamas-eliminated/

An Israeli official made it clear that Tel Aviv plans to expel the Palestinians from Gaza after the hostages are freed and Hamas is eliminated. Throughout the conflict, the Israeli Prime Minister publicly claimed the goals of military operations in Gaza were returning Israeli captives and removing Hamas from power.

According to Haaretz, a senior Israeli official who is traveling with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu explained, “What we would like to see is that we rescue the hostages, eliminate Hamas, and that there is a large-scale opportunity for voluntary migration.”

Israeli officials have used the phrase “voluntary migration” to describe Tel Aviv’s process of removing all Palestinians from Gaza. After President Donald Trump returned to office, he declared that all Palestinians should be removed from Gaza and resettled in other countries.

Since October 7, 2023, Prime Minister Netanyahu has said his war aims were only to eliminate Hamas and return the hostages, denying that Israel’s objective was genocide.

On Thursday, The Times of Israel reported that Hamas again offered to release all captives in exchange for a permanent ceasefire. The outlet explained that Tel Aviv has a “longstanding rejection” to this type of deal.

The senior official speaking with Haaretz said that at this point, Israel is focused on applying military pressure on Hamas. “Who says the enemy won’t break? Some captors may want to escape, allowing us to extract people,” they said.

Over the past 18 months, the vast majority of the living Israelis that were freed were released by Hamas during the two ceasefire periods. Scores of hostages have died in Gaza, including some killed by Israeli bombs and soldiers.

When the senior official was asked if Tel Aviv was concerned that resuming the fighting in Gaza will lead to the deaths of more captives, they explained, “It doesn’t matter if they die – it does, it’s terrible, but they are suffering.”

The official said that Tel Aviv was “very serious” about implementing Trump’s plan. Last month, Netanyahu ordered the Israeli intelligence agency Mossad to find countries to take in Gazans once they are expelled from Israel.

In recent weeks, a number of countries have been approached by Washington or Tel Aviv about resetting Palestinians. So far, all those nations have rejected the proposal or denied that an offer was made.

The senior official said some of the countries were receptive but looking for something in return. “They want something in return – not necessarily money, but also something strategic,” they explained.

 

Trump's tariffs are the most significant change in global trade in 100 years, and a global trade war appears inevitable.

Editorial

Author's title, BBC News World

April 3, 2025

https://www.bbc.com/mundo/articles/c1wdj4x1j92o

Their impact on the global economy will be enormous.

The massive adoption of tariffs on imports from all corners of the globe announced Wednesday by US President Donald Trump will be felt far beyond the US border.

The measures that will take effect between this week and next include a 10% minimum tax on all products entering the US and higher tariffs on the world's major economies, as well as several emerging ones.

Faisal Islam, economics editor of the BBC, states that these tariffs "are the biggest change in global trade in 100 years."

He explains that the effect of these measures can be seen in the lines on the graph of US tariff revenues, which have jumped to levels not seen in a century, beyond those recorded during the height of protectionism of the 1930s.

But also, in the declines recorded in the world's major stock markets.

"But the true measure of these changes will be the significant alterations in long-standing patterns of global trade," Islam points out.

"In essence, this is a universal 10% tariff on all US imports worldwide, which will take effect Friday night. In addition, dozens of the 'worst offenders,' as Trump has called them, will be reciprocally taxed for running trade surpluses," he adds.

He asserts that the tariffs on Asian countries are extraordinary.

"They will destroy the business models of thousands of companies, factories, and possibly entire countries. Some of the supply chains created by the world's largest companies will be instantly disrupted," he notes.

Ken Roggoff, former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, indicates that the consequences of imposing such high tariffs on imports entering the US are "incredible."

"(Trump) has just dropped a nuclear bomb on the global trading system," Rogoff told the BBC's World Business Report.

Olu Sonola, head of US Economic Research at Fitch Ratings, noted that tariffs imposed on all imports are now around 22%, which is about ten times higher than they were a year ago.

The United States has not had such high tariffs for more than a century.

"This is a radical change, not only for the US economy, but for the global economy," Sonola wrote.

What is the purpose of tariffs?

The US formula for so-called "reciprocal tariffs" basically consists of establishing a charge for countries that have a trade surplus in goods with the US, because they export more to the United States than they import from there. For those without a trade surplus, a tariff is still applied that brings them up to the universal reference level established by Trump of 10%.

Given that the US president has shown signs of taking tough positions in the past that ultimately seek to force more favorable terms for his country, some have speculated that the real objective of these tariffs is nothing more than a "grand bargain."

However, the US government appears to be claiming tariff revenue for the tax cuts it wants to implement, extending the cuts it approved during its first administration and which are due to arrive at the end of this year. Therefore, the scope for rapid adjustment seems limited. As one White House official bluntly stated: "This is not a negotiation, it's a national emergency."

"The goal of this policy is to get the US trade deficit 'back to zero.' It's a total reconfiguration of the global economy," says Faisal Islam.

The reindustrialization of the US is another of the stated goals of these tariffs. Not surprisingly, Trump has repeatedly said that companies that want to avoid these costs can locate in the US. But moving factories will take years.

Meanwhile, the US could suffer an inflationary blow.

"Tariffs of this magnitude in East Asia, especially those of 30% or 40%, will accelerate the rise in prices of clothing, toys, and electronics," says Faisal Islam.

And for the countries where these goods are manufactured, there could also be damaging effects.

"Many countries will likely enter a recession. If this tariff is maintained for a prolonged period, most of the forecasts can be ruled out," Sonola points out.

Among the countries that could suffer a recession is the United States itself.

According to Rogoff, the chances of the US falling into such a crisis rose to 50% after Trump's announcements.

Moody's Analytics has been warning that the United States could soon enter a recession and has also said that the country's finances could experience a multi-year decline due to its growing budget deficits and expensive debt.

What will the response be?

The question now is how the rest of the world will respond.

Faisal Islam points out that some European consumers will have the opportunity to benefit from the diversion of this trade into clothing and electronics more cheaply.

"Beyond the United States, which has become an isolationist economy, the rest of the major economies could opt for greater trade integration," he notes.

But, as the fall in Tesla car sales illustrates, only part of this story is about the response of governments. Today, consumers can also respond. It could turn into a new kind of trade war on social media.

"Europe may decide to stop buying the big-name brands created in the United States and loved around the world," says Islam.

He adds that as part of that response, the social media monopoly of the US tech giants could also be shaken.

"US authorities could be forced to raise interest rates to combat the inevitable spike in inflation," he says.

"A global trade war seems inevitable," he warns.

War With Iran Is a Path to Destruction

Have we learned nothing from our adventures in interventionism?

George D. O’Neill Jr.

Apr 2, 2025

https://www.theamericanconservative.com/war-with-iran-is-a-path-to-destruction/

Donald Trump rode into office—twice now—on a wave of promises to upend the Washington consensus, to drain the swamp of its self-serving mandarins and to keep America out of endless wars. His base cheered when he skewered the neoconservative architects of Iraq and Afghanistan, wars that bled our Treasury, and most importantly, many of our sons for little more than bragging rights in Beltway and Tel Aviv salons. Yet here we are, in the early days of his second term, with whispers growing louder from the usual suspects: advisors and hangers-on nudging him toward a strike on Iran, peddling the old lie that it’ll be quick, clean, and simple. History, that stern teacher we keep ignoring, tells us otherwise. Yet the hawks in the Trump administration appear to be anxious to wreck another country, which would join the long, recurring tragedy of U.S.-caused failed countries in the Middle East.

The pitch is familiar, isn’t it? A swift blow—maybe a few airstrikes on Tehran’s nuclear sites or a green light for Israel to do the dirty work—and the mullahs will crumble, the region will stabilize, and we’ll be home by Easter. It’s the same tune the warmongers hummed in 1914, when Europe’s leaders promised their boys would be back from the trenches by Christmas. These are also the same deceptions we heard in 2003, when Iraq was sold as a “cakewalk”—a war that would pay for itself with oil and gratitude. Millions of lives and trillions of dollars later, we’re still witnessing that tragedy.

The U.S. has been either directly bombing or participating in bombing the Houthis on and off since 2015. Why should we believe the war cheerleaders that this time will be more successful?

Iran is not Iraq circa 2003, nor is it some tinpot dictatorship ripe for a Predator-drone makeover. It’s a 3,000-year-old culture with a population of 85 million, rugged as the Zagros Mountains, with a military hardened by decades of sanctions, assassinations, military attacks, cyber attacks, proxy wars, and constant threats from top leaders of Israel and the U.S. to destroy their country. The Islamic Republic has spent years preparing for this very fight—dispersing its assets, fortifying its defenses, and cultivating allies from Hezbollah to the Houthis. A strike wouldn’t be a surgical snip; it’d be kicking a hornet’s nest with no apparent interest in an exit strategy. Yet the war hawk advisers circling Trump—some recycled from the Bush era, others eager to prove their toughness—seem unworried about the chaos they’d unleash. Chaos has been their game for decades.

Let’s play this out. Day one: bombs fall, targets burn, and the cable news chyrons scream victory. Day two: Iran retaliates—maybe with missiles on U.S. bases in Qatar or shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, whence a fifth of the world’s oil flows. Day three: oil prices spike, markets tank, and suddenly we’re not talking about a “limited operation” anymore. Hezbollah rains rockets on Tel Aviv, the Houthis blockade the Red Sea, and militia groups in Iraq and Syria start targeting American troops again. Before you know it, we’re waist-deep in another quagmire, with the same generals and pundits who botched the last three wars demanding more troops, more money, and more time. Sound familiar? Lyndon Johnson followed that advice, descended into infamy, and had to exit politics.

The hawks will scoff at this. Like they’ve done for decades, they’ll say Iran’s on the verge of collapse, it’s a paper tiger, that deterrence demands action, that Trump must show strength. They’ll invoke Reagan or Thatcher, forgetting that both knew when to hold fire. But strength isn’t measured by how many bombs you drop—it’s knowing when to walk away from a bad bet. Trump, at his best, gets this. He resisted the full-court press to bomb Syria into oblivion after Assad’s alleged chemical weapons stunts. He talked Kim Jong Un down from the ledge without firing a shot. He’s not a pacifist, but he’s no fool either. So why let the same clique that cheered on the Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, and Syria fiascoes steer him into this buzz saw?  

The main problem is the company he keeps. The swamp didn’t drain—it got a new guest list. Some of these advisers see Iran as a trophy, a chance to flex America’s muscles and settle old scores. Others are tethered to foreign capitals—Riyadh, Jerusalem—that would love to see us do their bidding and wreck Iran. 

America has followed the neoconservative Zionists’ foreign policy desires for decades. Every one of their wars ends up killing, wounding, and starving hundreds of thousands of innocent people. Millions are homeless. The target countries become dysfunctional, creating generations of new enemies. The narrative is the same: They say a leader is hurting his people. He is worse than Hitler and he must go. But the warmongers are unapologetic about the disastrous results such as warlords running Libya and Afghanistan, and the chaos and destruction in Iraq. Now that the “horrible” Assad is gone, a dressed-up Al Qaeda is running Syria. How is that not alarming? Our government enabled and supported that destruction for years.

The Christian Zionists are not crying out about the two-millennia-old Christian communities, which are being driven out of Iraq, Libya, Syria, and Israel as a result of the wars they have supported. No apologies here either.

Is it possible that the warmongers calling for the attacks on Iran would be perfectly satisfied leaving a mess like the other countries they have caused us to attack? How is that in America's interest?

They’re not thinking about the young Americans who will bear the brunt when the “cakewalk” turns into a slog. They’re thinking about their political masters, not Americans in the flyover country.  

Conservatives used to understand this. They were the ones who questioned the hubris of nation-building, who saw war as a last resort, not a first reflex. Robert Taft and Dwight Eisenhower didn’t fetishize military overreach; they knew it bankrupted nations and eroded liberty. Along the way, we let the neocons and their ilk hijack the movement, turning “peace through strength” into “war for applause.” President Trump’s first term hinted at a return to that older wisdom. His second could cement it—or squander it on Iran’s altar.  

The president should listen to his gut, not his courtiers. He’s a dealmaker, not a warlord. He knows the art of the bluff, and the power of walking away. Iran is no angel—its ambitions troubling—but it’s not an existential threat to America requiring a preemptive strike. Diplomacy worked with the Soviets; it can work here. War, though? War is the wildcard that breaks everything.  

So here’s the request, Mr. President: don’t buy the dishonest hype. Don’t let the warmongers’ desire to wreck another country be your guide. You ran against the forever wars—don’t start another one. America wants jobs, borders, sanity—not body bags and budget deficits. History is littered with failed leaders who thought war was simple. It never is, particularly when it is fomented by people who do not prioritize American interests. You know them by their fruits.

 

It's the end of the world's economic order as we know it

• Courtenay Brown,
• Neil Irwin

https://www.axios.com/2025/04/03/trump-tariffs-canada-europe-allies?

The world economic order is shifting beneath our feet, as historic allies look to America-proof their economies. President Trump's latest tariff announcement will accelerate the shift.

Why it matters: Global leaders and corporate executives alike are trying to figure out how to rejigger their economies to be less reliant on the U.S. in the longer run, even as they contemplate near-term retaliatory measures in hopes of lessening the tariff pain.

• Any economic delinking won't happen overnight. But the sense in Canada, Europe, and beyond is that their relationship with the U.S. has irreparably changed for the worse.

What they're saying: "Investors will be shocked how much things are going to move away from the US in standards, networks, and infrastructure — as well as services — in coming years," said Adam Posen, the president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics and a former Bank of England official.

• "The breach of trust and evident short-sighted self-dealing by the Trump Administration with regard to NATO and to trade reinforce each other," Posen, who just returned from a trip to Ottawa and has been speaking with European officials, added.
• "They make it more likely that Europe and the US will increasingly diverge in coming years economically as well as in security."

Driving the news: Top European Union official Ursula von der Leyen said the bloc was in the process of finalizing retaliatory measures for steel and aluminum tariffs.

• Next comes a potential response to the 20% across-the-board tariffs on European goods.
• "We are now preparing for further countermeasures, to protect our interests and our businesses if negotiations fail," von der Leyen said.

What to watch: In Europe and Canada — two of America's largest trading partners — officials have been blunt about the realities of a global system where the United States is less prominent.

• Germany has ditched its debt-averse mindset and ramped up borrowing for mega-investments in its defense sector in the wake of U.S. threats to back out of NATO.
• Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said last week that the country's U.S. relationship "based on deepening integration of our economies and tight security and military cooperation is over."
• He added that Canada would "fundamentally reimagine our economy" in a way that might make it less reliant on America.

That sentiment was echoed in a recent conversation with one of Canada's leading business trade groups.

• "A lot of Canadians feel hurt and upset," Doug Griffiths, head of the Edmonton Chamber of Commerce, tells Axios. "We are looking at investments that make us less dependent on the U.S.," he added. "I think we will ultimately be stronger, but I worry about you guys."

The intrigue: The value of the U.S. dollar has fallen sharply against other major currencies in the last 24 hours — in contrast to economic theory that predicts higher tariffs would drive a currency up.

• Analysts attribute the move to a sense that the U.S. may no longer serve its unique role in the global economy.
• Thierry Wizman, a foreign exchange strategist at Macquarie, writes that the role of the dollar as a safe haven "was already attenuating" in the first quarter, amid a "loss of American exceptionalism under the push for a more 'autarkic" trade regime."

The bottom line: In the short term, economists anticipate higher global inflation and slower world economic growth from Trump's tariff suite.

• But the potential economic delinking that plays out alongside those conditions might be more daunting.

The United States Has Become a Two-Tier Country

What has happened to the Constitutional Republic where all are equal under law?

Philip Giraldi • April 3, 2025

https://www.unz.com/pgiraldi/the-united-states-has-become-a-two-tier-country/

I recently read an article by investigative historian Eric Zuesse, author of America’s Empire of Evil, that began “One of the core features of nazism (not the German political Party but its core ideology) is racism, which allows some ethnicities (or “races”) to be advantaged by law, and other ethnicities to be discriminated against by the law — it is, at its very core, AGAINST equal rights under law.” Well, I was intrigued by what was packed into one long sentence due to recent developments in the United States and I am sure that none of my regular readers will be surprised by my view that a lot of what has gone wrong in the United States and elsewhere has been due to a racist Israel and its powerful lobbies. Consider for a moment some initiatives undertaken by presidents Joe Biden and Donald Trump that Americans who love their country should rightly find to be appalling, to include the enabling of the Jewish state’s genocide in Gaza and the elevation of “antisemitism” to the status of the number one “crime” that the Department of Justice is willing to investigate and prosecute, up to and including deportation of legal residents who dare to question what is taking place in Palestine.

When I refer to America becoming two-tier I am particularly thinking of US foreign policy, most particularly as it relates to the Middle East, and the operational imperatives of the Department of Justice and the Office of the Attorney General. And when I say two-tier I am suggesting that there are specific policies that are purely the product of political and economic corruption in that they do not serve any US interest – indeed, I would point out how they are contrary to American interests and designed to favor Israel and the groups and billionaires that make up the Israel Lobby over other American citizens and legal residents. In practice this has meant supporting everything the state of Israel does, no matter how atrocious, while also funding, equipping and providing political cover for the slaughter of possibly as many as two-to-four hundreds of thousands of Palestinians and the deportation of three million more.

Biden and Trump have given Netanyahu the green light to turning what was once Palestine into an Eretz (Greater) Israel. That implies stealing Palestinian homes and land and eradicating their culture and religion before destroying their livelihoods as first steps in the neo-colonial process. And domestically our recent presidents have made American Jews a protected species, coddled and privileged by the government and media beyond all reason, making them a special group that cannot be criticized or held accountable no matter what they do. Few Americans know that the Department of Homeland Security’s discretionary funding grants to enhance security goes more than 90% to Jewish groups and sites, to the tune of well over $400 million, and that does not include taxpayer funding of the proliferating so-called holocaust museums. And recent steps to suppress social media, most notably TikTok, came about after extremist Jewish groups like the Anti-Defamation League (ADL) began whining about negative coverage of the atrocities being committed by Israel, to include exposes of Israeli corruption of US Congressmen. Indeed, “antisemitism,” the symptoms of which deliberately include criticism of Israel, is the only crime that the Justice Department is willing to pursue with a Task Force, which may have Israeli intelligence officers accompanying, currently traveling throughout the nation and confronting universities with non-negotiable demands that they modify their teachings and take steps to stamp out any negative characterizations of Jews or the Jewish state.

And what is behind the shift of US strategic forces to exert “Maximum Pressure” on Iran and maybe even to prepare for the destruction of that nation to benefit Benjamin Netanyahu? Yes, of course, the Persians theoretically “threaten” Israel, which has its own completely illegal nuclear arsenal obtained through theft and deception from the United States, but nobody in the US government is allowed to mention that. And no one is permitted to enforce American laws if they impact on Israel, like the Leahy Law which forbids military assistance to any country that violates human rights “with impunity.” Israel clearly is qualified to be sanctioned by that standard, but no US Administration has dared to enforce the law for fear that the powerful Israel Lobby will retaliate.

Professor Jeffrey Sachs of Columbia University has described the current Donald Trump regime as an “Israel First Administration” packed with Zionists at all levels. The State Department Press Secretary Tammy Bruce has already said that “Anyone who tries to touch Israel will wind up in hell.” Interestingly, most independent observers would agree that Israel is all-powerful in Washington though they would probably limit that influence to Middle Eastern foreign policy, but that is not necessarily so. Netanyahu tells Trump exactly what to do and Pete Heghseth is already an American “rapture freak” brand of alleged Christian which means he is 100% Zionist. His first proclamation at being selected by Trump for Secretary of Defense was that he was going to eliminate “antisemitism” from the military. Apparently Pete never noticed the whole time he was on active duty how few Jews actually wind up in the military since they prefer that non-Jewish Americans do the dying for them. Beyond that, during the whole of Pete’s life in the US there was no “antisemitism” until the recently as a response to the highly visible genocide on the Gaza Strip. 22,000 children alone have been killed by some estimates. Meanwhile some Rabbis in Israel preach Jewish superiority, that non-Jews are subhuman, deserving to be killed or enslaved.

In spite of such viewpoints openly expressed by senior representatives of the Israeli government, a prime objective of the new Trump administration is to protect Israel and Jews in all their various manifestations and there is absolutely no mandate to protect Palestinians or ordinary Americans who become victims in the violent counterattacks on peace encampments staged by local Jews and, reportedly, including some Israeli army veterans. Have any violent Israelis been arrested or deported? No? Apparently, the US “justice system” is focused on serving Israel at the expense of the US Constitution’s protection of free speech and free association.

And what is the “Justice” Department (sic) doing about the Jewish hate organizations like Betar US and Canary Mission that are helping the Trump Administration round up suspected “antisemites, terrorists, and anti-Americans” who turn out to be mostly people who are only opposed to genocide. These extremist pro-Israel groups have a history of support for terror and ethnic cleansing and they are now working closely with the Trump administration, preparing lists and dossiers of thousands of Palestine supporters it wants to see deported from the United States.

Betar US describes itself as a “loud, proud, aggressive and unapologetically Zionist” movement “dedicated to defending Israel’s legitimacy and strengthening the Jewish connection to the land of Israel.” This includes “taking action where others won’t.” Its executive director Ross Glick, has, for example, met with senior government officials both under Biden and Trump and has claimed credit for the arrest and detention of Mahmoud Khalil, who was a leader of the anti-Israel demonstrations held at Columbia University last year. Lawmakers who met with Betar US leadership include Democratic Senator John Fetterman and staff aides to Republican Senators Ted Cruz and James Lankford in discussions to rid the country of thousands of “terror supporters.”

Donald Trump was also briefed on the issue and signed an executive order titled “Additional Measures to Combat Anti-Semitism” that promises “the removal of resident aliens who violate our laws,” to “quell pro-Hamas vandalism and intimidation” and to “investigate and punish anti-Jewish racism in leftist, anti-American colleges and universities.” He subsequently wrote on Truth Social: “We know there are more students at Columbia and other Universities across the country who have engaged in pro-terrorist, anti-Semitic, anti-American activity, and the Trump administration will not tolerate it.”

One might ask “What might Betar get up to that would interest the Department of Justice?” Well, here it is: in late March, Betar may have even organized an assassination attempt on Francesca Albanese, the United Nations special rapporteur on the Occupied Palestinian Territories and a leading critic of Israeli behavior. “Join us to give Francesca a [pager emoji] in London on Tuesday,” it posted online, referring to the September pager attack on Lebanon carried out by the Israeli military that killed dozens of people and injured thousands more. The killing by pager was widely condemned as an act of international terrorism. In addition, Betar routinely threatens violence against gatherings protesting Israeli crimes. At such an event at UCLA, Betar publicly stated, “We demand police remove these thugs now and if not we will be forced to organize groups of Jews to do so.” Betar has formally adopted the far-right slogan “Every Jew, a .22.”

And there’s more from the Zionist side, without any pushback from the Department of Justice. On March 24, an Israel-based and mostly US funded group called Canary Mission posted a new feature on its website, “Uncovering Foreign Nationals,” as part of its mission to identify those who harbor “hatred of the USA, Israel and Jews on North American college campuses.” The feature listed the names of seven students and instructors, including three current and former professors at Columbia University, are among thousands of people whose pictures have been posted on Canary’s website since its creation ten years ago — all are accused of anti-Israeli activism.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio is boasting of how his Immigration and Customs Enforcer (ICE) thugs have detained and canceled their visas on more than 300 international students who participated in demonstrations or even only spoke up or wrote letters in support of the Palestinians. ICE is also reportedly searching through social media to identify more “troublemakers.” That is not how rule of law is supposed to work, particularly as the supporters of Palestine have not been given a hearing, as the law requires, before being rounded up, stripped of their rights, and prepared for deportation. Clearly Israelis and Jews occupy the top tier in the reckoning of the US government, with the rest of us falling in place somewhere below, a formula reminiscent of police states all through history.

Nobody should be surprised at what Israel is allowed to get away with vis-s-vis the United States as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu believes, perhaps correctly, that he owns Congress and the White House. In the eyes of the Trump Administration, just like Joe Biden that preceded it, Israel is by definition always blame-free and above reproach, even though our system of checks and balances and rule of law is being trashed due to the Israeli parasitical relationship with its host victim the United States. As is often the case, Australian journalist Caitlin Johnstone nails the dark side of the latest atrocity as described by State Department spokeswoman Tammy Bruce. Per Johnstone, “It’s clear that [Bruce] has been instructed to respond to any and all questions about Israeli atrocities in Gaza by blaming everything on Hamas, without even pretending to care whether the allegations are true. For some background, Israel has just been caught perpetrating an atrocity so monstrous and so abundantly well-evidenced that even the mainstream western press have felt obligated to report on it. Outlets like the Guardian and the BBC are covering the story of how 15 medical workers for the Red Cross, Civil Defense, and the UN were apparently handcuffed and executed one by one by Israeli forces in Rafah before being buried in a mass grave. According to Palestinian Civil Defense spokesman Mahmoud Basal, they were each shot more than 20 times.”

It is hard to believe, but based on the first ten weeks in power, the Trump administration has actually made things worse for Americans than under Biden due to the continuous threats to occupy other countries, to levy heavy tariffs on imported goods, and to punish nations like Russia and Iran if they do not agree to the conditions that the new president is laying down. As Trump and his advisers have one thing in common beyond their Zionism, that being their total ignorance on most subjects as revealed by the recent Signal chat, it is difficult to imagine what the way to avoid the clearly coming American decline and fall might be.