HOW WILL SHEINBAUM'S GOVERNMENT MUST DEAL WITH DONALD TRUMP?

Yesterday, the president-elect of the United States announced on his Truth Social network that he will impose 25% tariffs on all products that the United States imports from Mexico and Canada, if its two main commercial partners and neighbors do not stop the flow of undocumented migrants and drugs that pass through their countries to the United States.

Including Canada in this measure seems excessive, since most of the undocumented migrants and drugs (especially fentanyl) that arrive in the United States pass through Mexico, not Canada.

Even so, Justin Trudeau has already contacted Trump to begin working on the president-elect's concerns; and for her part, the president of Mexico, Claudia Sheinbaum, has already sent a letter to Trump in which she points out that the arrival of migrants at the border between the two countries has decreased by 75% in the last year and that fentanyl overdoses in the United States have decreased by almost 14.5% in the last year.

However, Sheinbaum did not fail to mention in a press conference that "for every tariff from the United States, another will come in response from Mexico"; and that 2/3 of the weapons used by drug cartels in Mexico come from the United States.

However, analysts of U.S.-Mexico relations have pointed out that the Mexican government must prepare for a series of very harsh measures against it, which will have the objective of drastically stopping illegal migration to the United States, drug smuggling and the establishment of U.S. factories in Mexico.

To this end, Trump himself has already announced what policies he will implement from the first day of his mandate:

-      Sealing the border (it is still not clear what he means by this term).

-      Mass deportation of illegal migrants, starting with nearly one million who are considered dangerous criminals.

-      Designating Mexican drug cartels as “terrorist organizations.”

-      Application of 25% tariffs on all products that Mexico sells to the United States, if the Mexican government does not stop the flow of migrants and drugs. And increases to 50%, 75%, etc. if the Mexican government refuses to cooperate.

-      Tariffs of 100%, 200% or more on American companies that establish themselves in Mexico (mainly automotive companies) to force them to build their plants in the United States.

-      Tariffs of 100%, 200% or more on Chinese companies that want to use the USMCA to export their products from Mexico.

How can Claudia Sheinbaum's government respond to these policies?

There are three possible courses of action:

1. That Sheinbaum's government, as López Obrador's did to a certain extent, comply with Trump's demands and orders, with the enormous cost that this will cause to the Mexican economy and society; in addition to the public humiliation of national independence and sovereignty that this will entail.

In this case, Sheinbaum would have to accept the hundreds of thousands of deportees (criminals or not) that the United States sends to Mexico, including those from countries that do not accept the deportees that the United States intends to send them (China, Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua).

Thousands of members of the National Guard would have to be placed on the southern and northern borders and on human trafficking routes, to stop the flow of migrants.

Likewise, she would have to accept the arrival in Mexico of special forces of the United States Army, to carry out operations within Mexican territory against drug cartels; as well as a greater number of DEA personnel (and even the CIA, due to the issue of terrorism), to carry out the intelligence work necessary for these operations.

In economic matters, she would have to agree to change the energy policy established by López Obrador, which gives preference to state-owned companies Pemex, in oil and gas; and CFE in electricity, over private national and foreign companies.

Sheinbaum would also be forced to reach reparatory agreements with numerous American companies, which have sued the Mexican government for public policies that have supposedly damaged their investments and their present and future profits.

And surely, Trump would try to force President Sheinbaum to hinder or outright deny the access of Chinese capital in different sectors of the Mexican economy.

2. That the Sheinbaum government tries to resist, to the extent of its possibilities, the pressures of the Trump government.

First, in the face of the massive deportation of migrants, the Mexican government could create real chaos for Trump, if it decides to only accept those of Mexican origin; for which, Mexican consular personnel will have to interview each one of them in the United States territory to determine their nationality.

Obviously, a response like this from the Mexican government would trigger Trump's threat to impose tariffs, first of 25% on all Mexican products; and then gradually increase them.

The Mexican government would then have to activate the clauses provided for in the USMCA that prohibit this type of tariffs, if they are not based on commercial issues. And at the same time, initiate a procedure against the United States in the World Trade Organization.

Since these actions would take months to have any effect, the Mexican government would have to apply equal tariffs to an equivalent number of exports from the United States to Mexico, especially on those products that are exported from states that are governed by Republicans (the South and the Midwest); it would also have to initiate a process of import substitution and the accelerated search for suppliers in Asia-Pacific, Europe, Latin America and even Canada to avoid shortages of products vital to Mexican industry and to feed the population.

Regarding the claims of American companies against Mexico, the Mexican government could well leave them on “stand by” if relations between the two countries do not improve, and on the contrary, resolve favorably those of companies from countries that show solidarity with Mexico in these circumstances.

Likewise, on the issue of energy policy, the Mexican government could relax its nationalist policy, but favor European, Asian (even Chinese) and Latin American companies, over those of the United States, if Trump's policies against Mexico are not softened.

And, of course, the entry of military personnel into Mexico to fight the cartels, as well as more personnel from U.S. intelligence agencies, would not be accepted.

It should also be made clear that if the United States were to carry out unilateral military actions on Mexican territory, it would be considered a flagrant violation of national sovereignty, which could lead to the breaking of diplomatic relations.

3. A hybrid response between accepting Trump's pressure and resisting it could have the following elements:

Accepting all migrants sent by the United States to Mexico, in exchange for the US government providing a substantial amount of funding to be able to care for such many people in Mexican territory.

A significant part of the National Guard would be deployed to stop the flow of migrants, but Mexico would also demand that the United States exert diplomatic and even economic pressure on the countries through which this flow of migrants passes, that is, countries in Central, South America and the Caribbean.

With respect to military operations against drug cartels, they would need to be limited and joint with the military and security forces of Mexico.

And at the same time, Mexico should demand an efficient mechanism in US territory that would to some extent stop the flow of weapons reaching the Mexican cartels.

On energy policy, Mexico will have to largely open its energy sector to private investment, but in exchange it should demand that in the matter of claims by companies that say they have been affected by public policies of the Mexican government, a very specific review be carried out, to decide which ones really have grounds and which ones are attempts at blackmail and abuse.

Regarding China, accept that Mexico cannot be a platform for the shipment of Chinese products to the USA, but in exchange establish that Chinese investments that are already in Mexico, and serve the Mexican market, will not be hindered.

In short, for each demand from Trump, Claudia Sheinbaum's government would have to demand something in return, because let us remember that this type of transactional policy is the one that best suits the quarrelsome former 45th president of the United States, and the next 47th president.