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sábado, 24 de enero de 2026

Trump weighs imposing 'total oil blockade' on Cuba in bid to topple government

Following the kidnapping of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, the White House reportedly believes the Cuban government is 'ready to fall'

News Desk

JAN 23, 2026

https://thecradle.co/articles/trump-weighs-imposing-total-oil-blockade-on-cuba-in-bid-to-topple-government

The White House has discussed imposing a total blockade on oil imports to Cuba as part of an effort to promote regime change in the Caribbean nation, Politico reported on 23 January, citing three people familiar with the matter.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio is behind the proposal, according to the sources.

US President Donald Trump stated last week that the US would end Venezuela's shipments of oil to Cuba, which account for 60 percent of the island nation's oil consumption.

Havana has sought to replace subsidized Venezuelan oil with purchases from Mexico at higher market rates to stave off an economic crisis. Cuba sold some of the oil provided by Caracas for the foreign currency needed to import food and machine parts amid harsh US sanctions.

Trump abducted Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro on 3 January, called himself “acting president,” and is personally managing the revenues of shipments of Venezuelan oil recently sold by Washington.

"A total blockade of oil imports into Cuba could then spark a humanitarian crisis" and, ultimately, regime change, Politico wrote.

"Energy is the chokehold to kill the regime," said one person familiar with the plan.

Toppling the country's communist government, which took power following the Cuban revolution in 1959, which toppled US-backed dictator Fulgencio Batista, is "100 percent a 2026 event" in the view of White House officials, the person added.

Secretary of State Rubio, the son of Cuban immigrants who left the island years before the revolution, has long pushed for regime change in Havana.

After President Trump reacted to a social media post joking about Rubio becoming the president of Cuba, Rubio replied, "Sounds good to me."

Some Republican lawmakers have also pushed for an oil blockade on Cuba in recent weeks.

"There should be not a dime, no petroleum. Nothing should ever get to Cuba," said Senator Rick Scott of Florida last week.

The Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday that White House officials are actively seeking regime change in Cuba, believing that its economy is "close to collapse and that the government has never been this fragile after losing a vital benefactor in Maduro."

US officials are reportedly looking for Cuban officials who "want to cut a deal," the paper added.

viernes, 23 de enero de 2026

Trump says US ‘armada’ moving towards Iran

President warns Washington is watching Tehran closely as US naval forces move into the region

By MEE staff

Published date: 23 January 2026 

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/trump-says-us-armada-moving-towards-iran-amid-renewed-threats

US President Donald Trump said on Thursday that he is sending an “armada” towards Iran, threatening Tehran against resuming its nuclear programme.

Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One after returning from meetings with world leaders in Davos, Switzerland, Trump said Washington was closely monitoring Iran as US naval assets moved into the region.

“We have a lot of ships going that direction, just in case,” Trump said. “I’d rather not see anything happen, but we’re watching them very closely.”

He added: “We have an armada heading in that direction, and maybe we won’t have to use it.”

US officials, speaking anonymously to Reuters, said the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and several guided-missile destroyers were expected to arrive in the Middle East in the coming days.

One official said Washington was also considering deploying additional air defence systems to protect US bases from potential Iranian retaliation in the event of an American strike.

The deployments expand Trump’s military options and follow a US attack on Iranian nuclear facilities in June.

The summer strikes were widely seen as a violation of international law.

The warships began moving from the Asia-Pacific last week as tensions rose following a crackdown on protests across Iran. Tehran has accused Washington of encouraging the unrest.

Trump has repeatedly threatened intervention warning Iran against killing protesters, but in the end US strikes were called off. Demonstrations appeared to ease last week.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said “several thousand” people were killed during weeks of nationwide protests.

Trump claimed on Thursday that Iran had cancelled nearly 840 executions after US warnings.

“I said, ‘If you hang those people, you’re going to be hit harder than you’ve ever been hit,’” Trump said. “It’ll make what we did to your nuclear programme look like peanuts.

He said the executions were cancelled an hour before they were due to take place, calling it “a good sign”.

Iran’s top prosecutor Mohammad Movahedi, however on Friday dismissed Trump's claim suggesting the judiciary had authorised mass executions, calling the allegations baseless.

Speaking in comments carried by the judiciary’s Mizan News Agency, Movahedi said “this claim is completely false; no such number exists, nor has the judiciary made any such decision”.

Trump also repeated his warning that the US would strike again if Iran restarted its nuclear programme.

“If they try to do it again, they have to go to another area. We'll hit them there too, just as easily,” he said.

Protests in Iran began on 28 December with demonstrations over economic hardship in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar before spreading nationwide.

An Iranian official told Reuters that the confirmed death toll had exceeded 5,000, including 500 members of the security forces.

jueves, 22 de enero de 2026

The Gaza ‘Board of Peace’ Is Dividing the Globe

Netanyahu Reverses Course, Now Says Israel Will Join

by Alan Mosley | January 21, 2026

https://news.antiwar.com/2026/01/21/the-gaza-board-of-peace-is-dividing-the-globe/

A fractious global debate over the newly proposed Gaza “Board of Peace” has intensified as countries publicly declare whether they will participate in a U.S.-led body that its proponents say could oversee Gaza’s post-war reconstruction and, potentially, broader conflict resolution. European powers have split sharply over involvement, Middle Eastern governments are lining up to join, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has reversed an earlier refusal to participate, agreeing to take Israel’s seat.

French, Scandinavian, and other Western European governments have been among the most vocal in declining invitations, citing concerns about the board’s mandate, structure, and potential to undercut established international institutions. France, Norway, Sweden, and Slovenia have announced they will not join at this time, rejecting both the board’s expanded ambition beyond Gaza and the requirement – articulated in draft terms shared with invited nations – to contribute roughly $1 billion for permanent membership status.

Paris’s refusal stems in part from worries that the board, as envisioned, would duplicate or weaken the United Nations’ roles on peace and reconstruction. European officials have warned that a parallel forum dominated by a single national leader could fragment international diplomacy and erode multilateral norms. Norway and Sweden similarly pointed to a lack of clarity about authority and oversight, choosing to withhold endorsement until those issues are resolved.

Other European states have not yet committed. Britain, Germany, Italy, and the executive arm of the European Union have each acknowledged invitations but stopped short of agreeing to join, leaving their positions open amid domestic debate over the board’s purpose and governance. Russia, China, and Ukraine similarly remain noncommittal, having received invitations but offering only preliminary assessments of the proposal.

By contrast, a swath of Middle Eastern and allied countries have accepted invitations to participate. Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Turkey, and Pakistan are among those that have publicly signaled their intent to join the board. Several Central Asian and other non-Western nations – including Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Morocco, Kosovo, Armenia, Belarus, Indonesia, and Vietnam – are also planning to sign on.

Support from this cohort reflects a shared interest in stabilizing Gaza and shaping the narrative around regional recovery. For some, aligning with Washington’s initiative is also a strategic move to bolster bilateral ties and gain a voice in potential post-conflict arrangements. Morocco’s decision, for example, comes amid its recent diplomatic engagement across the region, even as public opinion at home remains wary of normalization trends.

The contrasting responses underscore a broader geo-political divide: Western European powers are cautious, seeing risks to the international order, while many Middle Eastern, African, and smaller states view the board as an opportunity to influence outcomes in Gaza and beyond. Countries in both groups have referenced the board’s $1 billion membership threshold as a significant consideration, with several declining precisely because they object to what they perceive as an exorbitant price for influence.

Israel’s Reversal

Israel’s position has been particularly notable. Initially, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government criticized the board’s structure, saying it was not adequately coordinated with Jerusalem and objecting to the composition of its executive committee – particularly the inclusion of representatives from countries seen as hostile to Israeli policy. Israeli officials indicated that these elements were “contrary to its policy,” and declined to commit to participation.

On January 21, however, Netanyahu’s office announced that Israel would join the Board of Peace, marking a reversal amid intense international discussion and ahead of an expected signing ceremony tied to the World Economic Forum in Davos. The move reflects a strategic calculation by Israel to retain influence in shaping Gaza’s future, even as the board’s mandate appears to be broadening beyond its original Gaza focus.

Netanyahu’s change of stance may also be aimed at balancing domestic political pressures with diplomatic imperatives. Critics within Israel – including hard-line ministers who argued for unilateral control over Gaza’s future – have warned that foreign oversight bodies could constrain national sovereignty. The prime minister’s decision to participate suggests a willingness to engage with the board’s processes despite these domestic tensions.

As the Board of Peace moves toward formal establishment, its contested reception highlights enduring fault lines in international diplomacy: competing visions of governance, questions about the cost and control of peacebuilding, and deep uncertainty about how best to end violence and rebuild societies.

miércoles, 21 de enero de 2026

The applause for China at Davos is sincere: Global Times editorial

By Global Times

Published: Jan 21, 2026

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202601/1353764.shtml

The World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2026 opened on January 19 in Davos, Switzerland. This year's forum was widely regarded as facing severe challenges. An official press release mentioned "the most complex geopolitical backdrop in decades" and "rising fragmentation," while the Global Risks Report 2026, published ahead of the opening, pointed out that "geoeconomic confrontation has emerged as the most severe risk" for 2026. Despite these challenges, the meeting set a record for the highest number of participating leaders and senior government officials in the forum's history. This indicates that the stronger the countercurrents of unilateralism and protectionism, the greater the international call to uphold multilateralism and safeguard the international order.

On January 20 local time, Member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice Premier of the State Council He Lifeng, delivered a speech at the Davos Forum. He said that in January 2017, President Xi Jinping delivered an important speech at the World Economic Forum, which China has seriously implemented, demonstrating firm support for multilateralism and free trade. In recent years, President Xi has put forward four major global initiatives, providing Chinese solutions to address the common challenges facing the world. In his address at the forum, He Lifeng outlined four key points: firmly supporting free trade, steadfastly upholding multilateralism, adhering to win-win cooperation, and promoting mutual respect and equal consultation. China's firm stance was met with sincere and enthusiastic applause at Davos.

Multilateralism and free trade remain the prevailing aspirations of the international community, and China has always stood on the right side of history. The Global Cooperation Barometer released by the World Economic Forum shows that, despite the strong headwinds facing multilateralism, global cooperation still demonstrates a certain level of resilience. From international cooperation on climate change, to global discussions on AI governance, to developing countries' demands for fair development, all point to one conclusion: only unity and cooperation can effectively address global challenges.

In a world of growing uncertainty, China has consistently upheld moral principles and practiced opening-up and cooperation, choosing to do what is difficult yet right. 

As the world's second-largest economy, China has followed through on its commitments and always acted as a responsible major country, firmly safeguarding multilateralism and promoting economic globalization toward a more universally beneficial and inclusive direction. The Recommendations of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China for Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development clearly commits to expanding high-standard opening-up and steadily advancing institutional opening-up. From the expansion of pilot free trade zones to the development of the Hainan Free Trade Port, and from the China International Import Expo to the China International Fair for Trade in Services, China's door to opening-up continues to open wider, offering vast market opportunities for global businesses. 

World Economic Forum President Borge Brende has noted that China is doubling down on investment in research, development and innovation, and that "technologies can represent huge opportunities for productivity gains and also growth in the years to come. And China is a major contributor to that."

Prior to the forum, China released its economic data for 2025. Amid the ongoing turbulence in the global situation, the strong resilience of the Chinese economy and its positive role in areas such as global economic governance have received widespread praise. In the face of a complex and severe international environment and the domestic tasks of reform, development, and maintaining stability, the Chinese economy has continuously signaled steady progress, becoming an important force in promoting healthy global development. China actively participates in the reform and construction of the global governance system and insists on following a path of peaceful development. China's development practice fully demonstrates that countries can handle with state-to-state relations and achieve revitalization through peaceful means and that nations with different social systems and development paths can fully respect each other and achieve win-win cooperation.

This year, the forum's opening ceremony deliberately replaced the guest speeches of previous years with a concert. The forum's official explanation stated that this reflects the "spirit of dialogue" because "music knows no borders, it speaks no single language." The development of human civilization has repeatedly proven that confrontation can only bring destruction and regression, while dialogue and cooperation can create prosperity and progress. The postwar international order was established based on a cherishing of peace and has brought unprecedented long-term peace and development opportunities to the world. Today, as this order faces severe challenges, the international community should return to its original intention, insisting on resolving differences through dialogue rather than confrontation, and addressing conflicts through negotiation rather than pressure.

The greater the storm and snow, the more we need someone to guide the way forward. In this era full of uncertainty, China remains a stable "ballast." We do not engage in exclusive "cliques"; what we offer is a commitment to opening up a market of over 1.4 billion people, shared technological and innovation dividends with the world, and a steadfast adherence to international fairness and justice. 

The profound changes in the international situation will once again prove that multilateralism is the right path for humanity.

martes, 20 de enero de 2026

Empire of Chaos, Plunder and Strikes in Panic of Being Evicted from Eurasia

Pepe Escobar • January 19, 2026

https://www.unz.com/pescobar/empire-of-chaos-plunder-and-strikes-in-panic-of-being-evicted-from-eurasia/

Tehran will never bow down to the diktats. The neo-Caligula regime change obsession – in fact mirrored as a NATOstan obsession – will keep ruling. Tehran is not intimidated.

The whole planet is somehow convulsed by neo-Caligula’s latest scam: because he did not get his “peace” Nobel from Norway, part of his megalomanic narcissist revenge is to bag Greenland from Denmark (in Empire-speak, who cares? These Scandinavians are al the same anyway).

In neo-Caligula’s own words: “The World is not secure unless we have Complete and Total Control of Greenland.”

That seals the Empire of Chaos completely morphed into the Empire of Plunder and now the Empire of Permanent Strikes.

Assorted Euro-chihuahuas dared to dispatch a tiny bunch of dog-sled conductors to defend Greenland from neo-Caligula. To no avail. They were instantly hit with tariffs. The strike remains in effect until the “complete and total purchase” of Greenland.

Euro-chihuahuas – following the Global South – may have finally woken up to the new paradigm: Strike Geopolitics.

Neo-Caligula did not get regime change in Caracas – and his oil mirage was refuted even by US energy majors. He did not get regime change in Tehran – even if CIA, Mossad and assorted NGOs worked full time to deliver.

So Plan C is Greenland, essential for imperial lebensraum purposes, as collateral for the unpayable $38 trillion – and rising – debt.

By all means that does not imply ditching the Iran obsession. The USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier is moving into a position in the Sea of Oman/Persian Gulf where it would be able to strike Iran before the end of the week. All attack scenarios remain in place.

Assuming all hell breaks loose, this may become an even more humiliating replay of the 12-day war in June last year, which the death cult in West Asia spent as much as 14 months planning.

The 12-day war not only failed as a regime change op; it engendered a sample of Iranian retaliation so hardcore that Tel Aviv still has not recovered. Tehran has been explicit, over and over again, that the same fate awaits neo-Caligula’s forces in Iran and across the Gulf in case of renewed strikes.

Why the regime change obsession endures

As for the equally, miserably failed regime change op on Iran these past few weeks, it featured on the forefront the pathetic Clown Prince Reza Pahlavi, safely ensconced in Maryland, massively plugged by US media as a “unifying political figure” capable of reassessing the “lived catastrophe of clerical rule”.

Neo-Caligula was too busy to care about these ideological niceties. What he wanted was to accelerate the proceedings by – what else – applying Empire of Permanent Strikes logic: bombing Iran.

Diversionist spin, predictably, went ballistic. The death cult in West Asia may have asked Moscow to tell Tehran that they would not strike if Iran did not strike first. As if Tehran – and Moscow – could trust anything coming from Tel Aviv.

The Gulfie crowd – Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Oman – may have asked neo-Caligula not to strike, because that would have set the whole Gulf on fire and generate “grave blowback”.

The real deal – once again – was TACO. There was simply no gamed US strike scenario that would have allowed lightning quick regime change, the only acceptable outcome. Thus back to bagging Greenland.

It took only a few days to unmask the massive propaganda campaign across NATOstan about “mass casualties” among Iran protesters.

The – fake – figures came from the Center for Human Rights in Iran, located in, where else, New York, and financed by the CIA-infested National Endowment for Democracy (NED) in Washington and other assorted disinformation entities.

The list of reasons for urgent regime change in Iran though remains off the charts, featuring, among others, these four key elements:

1.   Tehran must ditch the Axis of Resistance across West Asia supporting Palestine.

2.   Because Iran is at the privileged crossroads of trade/energy connectivity corridors in Eurasia, both its connections with the
International North–South Transportation Corridor (INSTC) and China’s New Silk Roads (BRI) must be severed. That means blowing up from the inside organic intra-BRICS cooperation between Russia, Iran, India and China.

3.   As over 90% of Iranian oil exports go to China – and are settled in yuan – that’s a serious threat to the petrodollar: the ultimate anathema. That’s where in Empire of Permanent Strikes terms, Iran aligns with Venezuela. It’s our – petrodollar – way or the highway.

4.   The staying power of the never-ending dream of an Iran under the Shah remix – complete with a Shah-style SAVAK secret police; cozy Mossad ties to rein in those Arab barbarians; and a sprawling CIA-run net of surveillance hubs targeting both Russia and China.

How to counter a “regime-change war”

Tehran is not spooked by sanctions – as it has endured over 6,000 of them over four decades, designed to totally strangle its economy and even bring oil exports, in imperial terminology, down “to zero”.

Even under maximum pressure, Iran was capable of building the most extensive industrial base across West Asia; relentlessly invested in self-sufficiency and state of the art military hardware; joined the SCO in 2023 and BRICS in 2024; and for all practical purposes developed a top Global South knowledge economy.

Tsunamis of – digital – ink have been spent on why China has not properly helped Iran so far against imperial maximum pressure, for instance supporting Tehran against the speculative attacks on the rial. That would have cost Beijing almost nothing – compared to its level of foreign reserves.

The speculative attack on the rial was arguably the essential trigger of the protests across Iran. It’s essential to remember that hunger salaries were a key contributor to the collapse of Syria.

It’s up to Beijing to – diplomatically – answer this uncomfortable question. The spirit of BRICS Plus – call it Bandung 1955 Plus – may not survive when we all know this current world war is essentially about resources and finance, which need to be mobilized and properly deployed.

And that brings us to China’s leadership seriously evaluating whether it’s worth to remain a sort of larger version of Germany: embryonically self-centered; harboring fear; and fundamentally selfish in economic and financial terms. The – auspicious – alternative is for China to create sufficiently sized credit facilities within BRICS to an array of friendly nations.

Whatever happens next, it’s clear that the Empire of Permanent Strikes not only will remain “actively hostile” to a multipolar, multi-nodal world; the hostility will be marinated in a toxic sludge of anger and revenge, and subordinated to the ultimate, panic fear: the Empire’s slowly but surely, inexorable expulsion from Eurasia.

Cue to White House Special Representative Witkoff – the real estate Bismarck – enouncing the imperial diktats to Iran:

1.   Stop enriching uranium. Out of the question,

2.   Reduce missile stockpiles. Out of the question.

3.   Reduce approximately 2000 kg of enriched nuclear material (3.67–60 %). That might be negotiated.

4.   Stop supporting “regional proxies” – as in the Axis of Resistance. Out of the question.

Tehran will never bow down to the diktats. But even if it did, the – promised – imperial reward would be the lifting of sanctions (the US Congress will never do it) and a “return to the international community”. Iran is already part of the international community at the UN and inside BRICS, SCO and the Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU), among other institutions.

So, the neo-Caligula regime change obsession – in fact mirrored as a NATOstan obsession – will keep ruling. Tehran is not intimidated. Cue to the strategic advisor to Iran’s Parliament Speaker, Mahdi Mohammadi:

“We know that we are facing a regime-change war in which the only way to achieve victory is to make credible the threat that, during the 12-day war, although it was ready, did not get the opportunity to be carried out: a geographically expansive war of attrition, focused on the Persian Gulf energy markets, on the basis of steadily increasing missile firepower, lasting at least several months.”

lunes, 19 de enero de 2026

ISRAEL IS THE PUPPET MASTER BEHIND US POLICY ON IRAN, VENEZUELA, AND GREENLAND

As we have said for years, Donald Trump is a puppet of international Zionism, and specifically of Benjamin Netanyahu.

Trump has always been under the control of some Zionist throughout his life (Roy Cohn, Sheldon and Miriam Adelson, Ronald Lauder, Benjamin Netanyahu, Larry Ellison, Steve Wikoff, Jared Kushner, etc.).

Most people and analysts believe that Trump is the original source of the policies he has been pursuing toward Iran, Venezuela, and Greenland.

But that's not the case. Trump is ignorant of history, geopolitics, economics, international relations, and military matters. His Zionist puppeteers have known this since his youth, and that is why they have manipulated him at will for decades.

The policy of destroying the Iranian government and the goal of balkanizing Iran have always been part of Israel's hegemonic project for the Middle East, and as could be seen in the first year of Trump's second presidential term, when Netanyahu asked (or ordered) Trump to participate in the Israeli aggression against Iran, destroying its nuclear facilities, Trump did so without hesitation.

Now Netanyahu is going to force USA to bomb Iran again, this time to destroy Iran's medium and long-range missile facilities, thereby eliminating any possible Iranian retaliation against Israel once the Israeli air force attacks Iran again.

Western economic sanctions against Iran, the infiltration of provocateurs sent by US and Israeli intelligence agencies, and years of social and economic hardship that have worn down the Iranian regime have generated protests against Iran's theocratic government. This is favoring Israel's strategy of regime change in Tehran, for which, once again, the puppet Trump will be at Netanyahu's beck and call to attack the Iranian government under the pretext of supporting the protesters.

For the moment, the Gulf petro-monarchies have managed to halt US attacks against Iran by convincing Trump that such attacks would cause an immediate rise in oil prices, which would run counter to Trump's attempts to keep inflation low in the United States in an election year like 2026.

But as Trump himself has said, "The United States is lock and loaded to attack Iran."

As for Venezuela, the Chávez and Maduro regimes supported the Palestinian cause, broke off diplomatic relations with Israel, publicly accused Israel of committing war crimes and genocide against the Palestinians in its various military incursions into Gaza, and established a close diplomatic and economic relationship with Iran.

All of this put the governments of the late Chávez and the now-deposed Maduro in Netanyahu's crosshairs, making him one of the main instigators for Trump to order the military operation against the Maduro government. Likewise, the Zionist billionaire Paul Singer, taking advantage of Trump's rise to power, and as always, a speculator of government debt bonds or those of companies in financial distress, managed to get US courts to allow him to acquire Venezuela's CITGO oil company for the paltry sum of $5.9 billion, when its market value is nearly $20 billion.

Similarly, Netanyahu is colluding with the Zionist president of Argentina, Javier Milei (whose real last name is Milenkowski, the same as Netanyahu's), to promote what Milei has called the "Isaac Accords" in Latin America (similar to the Abraham Accords in the Middle East), in order to break the alliance that several Latin American governments have formed to support the Palestinian cause and denounce the war crimes and genocide that Israel has committed against the Palestinians.

Finally, Trump's supposed "idea" to annex Greenland came to him from the Zionist billionaire Ronald Lauder, who has been his "friend" practically since childhood.

John Bolton, Trump's former national security advisor during his first presidential term and now considered an "enemy" by the US president, revealed that it was Lauder who convinced Trump to annex Greenland, supposedly to exploit the island's natural resources.

The reality is that international Zionism needs the world to be dominated by the "law of the strongest," because if international law and the UN Charter prevailed, Israel would be the first country in the world to be condemned for its persistent violation of all humanitarian laws and international relations, as it has demonstrated for over two years with the genocide in Gaza and the ethnic cleansing in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, as well as with its attacks on Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Iran.

On the other hand, if the world's leading power behaves like a bully, disregarding all international agreements and rules, then Israel is no longer isolated in its actions on the international stage, but can defend its actions by pointing out that the United States does the same; and of course, this volatile behavior of both countries only strengthens their ties. Similarly, Israel exacts a price from Europe for certain political stances regarding the Palestinians. While European countries never sanction or punish Israel for its war crimes, they consistently criticize Israeli governments for their excesses.

Therefore, the fact that the United States now treats Europeans as Third World countries is a source of great satisfaction for Israel and Zionism, as it is a kind of mockery and punishment of Europeans for daring to criticize those who consider themselves the masters of the world.

Donroe Doctrine: Catalyst for a US Strategic Contraction in the Indo-Pacific?

by Harris Jenner | Jan 18, 2026

https://original.antiwar.com/Harris_Jenner/2026/01/18/donroe-doctrine-catalyst-for-a-us-strategic-contraction-in-the-indo-pacific/

The capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 2026, marked a watershed moment in international affairs. The operation’s significance lies not only in its brazen execution but in the geopolitical shockwave it triggered. Framed by President Donald Trump as a “law-enforcement” strike against a “drug cartel” leader, the move has since unleashed a cascade of global threats, alienated key allies, and signaled a profound shift in America’s role – from guarantor of a rules-based order to its primary disruptor. Analysts warn that this aggressive revival of Monroe Doctrine principles is precipitating an international credibility crisis, straining alliances, and may force a broad strategic contraction, including in the critical Indo-Pacific region.

Operation Absolute Resolve and the Image of the Rule-Breaker

The mission to seize Maduro, dubbed Operation Absolute Resolve, proved a tactically flawless endeavor with strategically catastrophic consequences. President Trump’s justification – waging a “war on drugs and terrorism” – failed to conceal what critics call nakedly hegemonic behavior. In a single stroke, Washington unilaterally abrogated the core principles of sovereignty and non-intervention it had long championed.

The international reaction was swift and critical. United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres stated “These developments constitute a dangerous precedent”. Key allies voiced profound unease. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz insisted that “principles of international law must apply,” while Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez declared on X that Spain would “not recognize an intervention that violates international law.” British Prime Minister Keir Starmer pointedly clarified, “We were not involved.” The unified dismay revealed the fragility of American alliances under sudden strain.

“Allowing such a precedent will further undermine respect for international law, state sovereignty, and civilian protections,” said Celeste Kmiotek, a senior staff lawyer at the Atlantic Council’s Strategic Litigation Project. The message from the White House was unambiguous: the Western Hemisphere remains an exclusive U.S. zone where American security preferences override all other considerations. This unilateralist posture has, in the eyes of many allies, transformed the United States from the system’s guarantor into its primary rule-breaker.

A Widening International Credibility Crisis

In the days following the Venezuela operation, President Trump and his administration issued a series of stark warnings worldwide, cementing an image of the United States as a global “troublemaker” and triggering a deepening credibility crisis.

Trump’s renewed threat to “take over Greenland” prompted a sharp transatlantic rebuke. European leaders issued a joint statement asserting Arctic security “must be achieved collectively.” Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen had earlier warned such an act would mean “the end of the NATO military alliance,” a sentiment echoed by European Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius, who said it would spell “the end of the trans-Atlantic partnership.” This pattern, observers note, has recast the U.S. from an unreliable partner into an active unilateralist power, creating a severe trust deficit in Europe.

Simultaneously, the administration leveled threats across the Western Hemisphere, reviving the image of American big-stick diplomacy. Trump accused Colombian President Gustavo Petro of cocaine trafficking and hinted at military action, suggested Cuba was “ready to fall,” and claimed U.S. forces would hit cartels in Mexico on land. Beyond the hemisphere, he warned that the U.S. was “locked and loaded” if Iran killed peaceful protesters – a threat he later appeared to walk back by claiming he had “reliable information” that killings in Iran were stopping. This suggests he is wavering on direct military action.

This aggressive approach is leading the nation “down a dark hole,” wrote Ted Piccone, a non-resident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, in a recent analysis. “The harmful consequences for U.S. national security, and international peace and security more broadly, will unspool for years to come,” he argued.

The Western Hemisphere Quagmire and a Looming Strategic Contraction

Administration officials frame the action in Venezuela not as an isolated event, but as the execution of a doctrinal shift outlined in the 2025 National Security Strategy. The document explicitly reorients U.S. focus toward its immediate neighborhood, reviving the Monroe Doctrine with a “Trump Corollary” that treats the hemisphere as an exclusive zone of American influence.

Yet the capture of Maduro has not resolved the Venezuelan crisis; it has traded one set of problems for another, potentially more volatile set. Interim President Delcy Rodríguez now presides over a fractured nation, facing emboldened opposition, internal Chavista power struggles, and the threat of armed Colombian guerrilla groups like the ELN. The United States now bears a direct responsibility for stabilizing a country with a collapsed economy and a crippled oil infrastructure requiring massive, long-term investment.

The resources and diplomatic attention demanded by managing a volatile post-Maduro Venezuela – and by confronting other perceived regional threats – will inevitably draw focus from other theaters. “This operation signifies that the Trump administration will prioritize issues in the United States’ near abroad, with correspondingly less attention spent on other regions, including the Indo-Pacific theater,” said I-Chung Lai, President of Taiwan’s Prospect Foundation, summarizing one prominent school of thought.

The 2025 NSS notably de-emphasizes great-power rivalry, stating a goal to “reestablish strategic stability with Russia” and highlighting the aim of “maintaining a genuinely mutually advantageous economic relationship with Beijing.” This rhetorical shift suggests Washington may be preparing for a more transactional and less engaged role in Asia. The ultimate cost of hemispheric overreach, analysts conclude, could be a forced strategic contraction, compelling America to retreat from its traditional commitments in the Indo-Pacific.

The Taiwan Paradox: Arms Sales as a Prelude to Retreat?

This impending contraction reveals a paradox in Washington’s Asia policy. The recent approval of a record $10 billion arms sale to Taiwan appears to be a robust show of support. Yet this hardline move directly conflicts with the conciliatory language of the Pentagon’s latest China report, which emphasizes peaceful intentions and disavows any aim to “strangle, dominate, or humiliate” Beijing. The contrast suggests an administration simultaneously escalating capabilities while trying to manage – and downplay – the risks of confrontation.

This apparent contradiction – arming Taiwan while seeking stability with China – can be understood through analytical frameworks proposed by regional security experts. Michael D. Swaine, senior research fellow in the East Asia Program at the Quincy Institute, contends that Taiwan is not a sufficiently vital interest for the United States to go to war over, and it is urgent for Washington to begin transitioning to a policy to rule out the possibility of joining a war over the island. He outlines how Washington can transition from strategic ambiguity to strategic clarity, which consists of three parts:

First, a period of preparation to ready U.S. allies and partners for the policy that the United States will not intervene directly in defense of Taiwan. The transition process should focus on bolstering the self-defense capabilities and confidence of Taiwan and nearby U.S. allies.

Second, deliberate moves to end strategic ambiguity while enhancing other forms of support for Taiwan.

Third, an effort to minimize the possibility that China will conclude that it could seize Taiwan by force because of the new U.S. policy of nonintervention.

In this light, the record arms sale may serve a dual purpose. First, it acts as an immediate deterrent and provides political support. Second, and more consequentially, it could function as a calculated preparatory move for a broader strategic shift. By massively upgrading Taiwan’s defenses now, the administration may be positioning the island to better withstand future pressure, thereby granting Washington the latitude to scale back its security commitments without triggering an immediate crisis. This aligns with the NSS’s transactional, burden-sharing ethos, which expects allies to take primary responsibility for their own defense. The most provocative interpretation of current events is that the Trump administration is positioning Taiwan with a grand bargain with Beijing, especially whether the U.S. opposition to Taiwan independence is “under serious consideration” and will be part of a potential negotiation package during a future presidential visit to China. Swaine contends that Trump might slightly alter the OCP by stating that the U.S. now “opposes” (in contrast to “does not support”) Taiwanese independence, but he can’t see him going beyond that, he might simply want to improve relations with China so as to make better econ/tech deals and thus does not want the Taiwan issue to disrupt that effort.

The operation against Maduro was not merely a raid but the opening salvo of a revolutionary approach to statecraft. This new paradigm – signaled by stark Monroe Doctrine threats – is unilaterally assertive, dismissive of sovereignty, and corrosive to alliance trust. By focusing on hemispheric threats, it consumes strategic resources, breeds resentment, and risks endless entanglements. Consequently, mired in the Western Hemisphere, the US lacks the bandwidth for significant direct intervention in the Indo-Pacific. The ultimate price of this strategy may well be America’s strategic retreat from the Indo-Pacific.