The Gaza ‘War’ Was a Lie, as Is the Ceasefire. Trump Just Told You

During Netanyahu’s visit, Trump dropped Washington’s sugar coating of Israel’s 15-month genocidal destruction of Gaza. This was always about ethnic cleansing

by Jonathan Cook

Posted on February 11, 2025

https://original.antiwar.com/cook/2025/02/10/the-gaza-war-was-a-lie-as-is-the-ceasefire-trump-just-told-you/

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s visit to the White House this week tore the mask off 16 months of gaslighting by western leaders and by the entirety of the western establishment media.

United States President Donald Trump finally dropped Washington’s sugar coating of Israel’s genocidal destruction of Gaza.

This was always, he told us, a slaughter made in the US. In his words, Washington will now “take over” Gaza and be the one to develop it.

And the goal of the slaughter was always ethnic cleansing.

Palestinians, he said, would be “settled” in a place where they would not have to be “worried about dying every day” – that is, being murdered by Israel using US-supplied bombs.

Gaza, meanwhile, would become the “Riviera of the Middle East”, with the “world’s people” – he meant rich white people like himself – living in luxury beachfront properties in their stead.

If the US “owns” Gaza, as Trump insists, it will also own Gaza’s territorial waters, where there just happen to be fabulous quantities of untapped gas to enrich the enclave’s new “owner”. Palestinians have, of course, never been allowed to develop their gas fields.

Trump may even have let slip inadvertently the true death toll inflicted by Israel’s rampage. He referred to “all of them – there’s 1.7 million or maybe 1.8 million people” being forced out of Gaza.

The population count before 7 October 2023 was between 2.2 and 2.3 million. Where are the other half a million Palestinians? Under the rubble? In unmarked graves? Eaten by feral dogs? Vaporised by 2,000lb US bombs?

Wrecking spree

Trump presented his ethnic cleansing plan as if he had the best interests of the Palestinians at heart. As if he was saving them from a disaster-prone earthquake zone, not from a genocidal neighbour he counts as Washington’s closest ally.

His comments were greeted with shock and horror in western and Arab capitals. Everyone is distancing themselves from his blatant backing for the ethnic cleansing of Gaza’s population.

But these are the same leaders who kept silent through 15 months of Israel’s levelling of Gaza’s homes, hospitals, schools, universities, libraries, government buildings, mosques, churches and bakeries.

Then, they spoke of Israel’s right to “defend itself” even as Israel caused so much damage the United Nations warned it would take up to 80 years to rebuild the territory – that is, four generations.

What did they think would happen at the end of the wrecking spree they armed and fully supported? Did they imagine the people of Gaza could survive for years without homes, or hospitals, or schools, or water systems, or electricity?

They knew this was the outcome: destitute Palestinians would either risk death in the ruins or be forced to move out.

And western politicians not only let it happen, they told us it was “proportionate”, it was necessary. They smeared anyone who dissented, anyone who called for a ceasefire, anyone who went on a protest march as an antisemite and a Jew hater.

In the US and elsewhere, students – many of them Jewish – staged mass protests on their campuses. In response, university administrations sent in the riot police, beating them. Afterwards, the universities expelled the student organisers and denied them their degrees.

And yet western politicians and media outlets think now is the time to express shock at Trump’s statements?

Still dying

Trump’s appalling, savage honesty simply highlights the depths of mendacity over the preceding 16 months. After all, who did not understand that the three-phase Gaza ceasefire, which came into effect on 19 January, was a lie too.

It was a lie even before the ink dried on the page.

It was a lie because the ceasefire was officially intended not just to create a pause in the bloodshed. It was also supposed to allow for the mitigation of harm to the civilian population, bring the hostilities to an end, and lead to the reconstruction of Gaza.

None of that will happen – at least not for the Palestinians, as Trump has made clear.

Despite its claims, Israel has clearly not ceased firing munitions into Gaza. It has continued killing and maiming Palestinians, including children, even if the carpet bombing has ended for the time being.

In media coverage, these deaths and injuries are never referred to as what they are: violations of the ceasefire.

Israeli snipers may no longer be shooting Palestinian children in the head, as happened routinely for 15 months. But the young are still dying.

Without homes, without access to properly functioning hospitals and with only limited access to food and water, Gaza’s children are perishing – mostly out of view, mostly uncounted – from the cold, from disease, from starvation.

Even Steve Witkoff, Trump’s envoy to the Middle East, says it will likely take 10-15 years to rebuild Gaza.

But the people of Gaza don’t have that much time.

This month Israel instituted a ban on the activities of the United Nation’s aid agency, UNRWA, in all of the Palestinian territories it occupies illegally.

UNRWA is the only agency capable of alleviating the worst excesses of the hellscape Israel has created in Gaza. Without it, the recovery process will be further hampered – and more of Gaza’s people will die waiting for help.

A blind eye

But in truth, Netanyahu has no intention of maintaining the “ceasefire” beyond the first stage, the exchange of hostages. Afterwards, he has all but promised to restart the slaughter.

When Israel decides to “go back in”, there will be no price to pay from the Trump administration, any more than there was a price to pay from the previous Biden administration.

Even now, as Israel breaks the ceasefire, shooting at civilian vehicles because the inhabitants are unaware of the tripwire restrictions on their movements imposed by Israel, western politicians and media turn a blind eye.

And when Israel finally tears up the agreement, as it will, the West will echo Israel in blaming Hamas for being the one to violate it.

The ceasefire is a lie too because, having made Gaza uninhabitable, a death camp, Israel has switched its primary genocidal focus to the Occupied West Bank, where it is gradually introducing the same tactics employed for 15 months in the tiny coastal enclave.

At the weekend it blew up large parts of the refugee camp of Jenin, turning it into rubble, just as it has already done to most of Gaza and swaths of south Lebanon.

Note that Israel is now targeting the West Bank even though it is run not by Hamas but by Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian leader who refers to his security forces’ collaboration with Israel in repressing all resistance to its illegal occupation as “sacred”.

Note too that the West Bank had nothing to do with the Hamas attack on 7 October 2023. But none of this should surprise us. These were only ever pretexts for the slaughter in Gaza.

In turn, the ceasefire lie sits atop a mountain of past lies: from Hamas beheading babies to its waging a campaign of systematic rape, for which there is precisely zero evidence.

And it breathes life into a new round of lies such as Biden’s suggestion last month that the ceasefire would allow the people of Gaza to “return to their neighborhoods”. Except those neighborhoods are gone. They don’t exist because the Biden administration sent billions of dollars worth of munitions to level Gaza.

Why, one might wonder, is the Trump administration seeking to send an additional $1bn worth of munitions to Israel, if not so it can continue the destruction and slaughter?

Blushes spared

The ceasefire is a lie because everything about the past 16 months has been a lie. It is the latest lie in a chain of lies, each meant to support the other lies to create a mendacious overarching narrative: the giant lie.

The giant lie tells of a decades-old “conflict” with the Palestinians, of Israel’s “war of survival” in the region. The giant lie obscures what is really at stake: the West’s last settler-colonial project to eradicate a native people, in this case in the strategically important oil-rich Middle East.

According to that giant lie, Hamas “started a war” on 7 October 2023 when it broke out of the concentration camp Palestinians in Gaza had been living in for at least 16 years, deprived of the essentials of life by their Israeli oppressors.

According to that giant lie, Hamas are the terrorists – not Israel, which has been illegally occupying, settling and besieging the Palestinians’ homeland for three-quarters of a century.

According to that giant lie, Israel’s slaughter of many tens of thousands of men, women and children and its maiming of many times that figure were necessary to “eliminate Hamas” rather than evidence of Israel’s genocidal intent, as every major human rights organization has concluded.

Even Antony Blinken, Biden’s secretary of state, admitted – only, of course, as he was stepping down – that Israel’s extended killing spree had been entirely self-sabotaging. “We assess that Hamas has recruited almost as many new militants as it has lost,” he said. “That is a recipe for an enduring insurgency and perpetual war.”

This week officials in Gaza used the lull in Israeli attacks to reassess the death toll. They have revised it to nearly 62,000 after adding the names of those missing, presumed dead under the oceans of rubble. Many more deaths have doubtless still not been identified.

In the giant lie, the International Court of Justice’s ruling more than a year ago that there were “plausible” grounds for believing Israel was carrying out a genocide were airbrushed out of the picture by western politicians and media.

Not only that, but the West hurried to supply Israel with the bombs needed to carry out the very massacres that has led the World Court to put Israel on trial for genocide.

In that giant lie, Britain’s now-prime minister Keir Starmer presented Israel’s starvation of Gaza’s population as lawful – as “self-defense”.

Meanwhile, journalists and other politicians collude in avoiding mention of Starmer’s comments to spare his blushes, even after the International Criminal Court (ICC) charged Netanyahu and his defense minister, Yoav Gallant, with crimes against humanity for that very same starvation policy.

Supine media

According to the giant lie, Hamas is holding hostages, while the many thousands of Palestinians abducted by Israel to be used as bargaining chips in the current swaps – including hundreds of doctors, aid workers and children – are “prisoners”, legitimately “arrested” as terror suspects.

According to the same giant lie, Israel’s government had to destroy Gaza to bring home the hostages, even as it spent the last days before the ceasefire went into effect intensifying its bombardment of the enclave, clearly indifferent as to whether it killed the hostages in the process.

In the giant lie, Israel’s levelling of Gaza, the aid blockade and starvation of 2.3 million people were somehow justified and “proportionate” rather than intended to make the enclave uninhabitable, with the goal of forcing Palestinians out and into the neighbouring Egyptian territory of Sinai or other parts of the Arab world.

The “ceasefire” lie is perfectly of a piece with this giant lie.

The giant lie that claimed Biden had “worked tirelessly” for a ceasefire that he could have got days after 7 October 2023 with one call to Netanyahu. The “hard won” ceasefire that was available in exactly the same format last May, but had to be delayed because Israel needed longer to carry out its genocide.

The giant lie that hailed Biden and Trump for pulling off a diplomatic coup with the ceasefire when for more than a year millions of protesters in the West have been smeared, beaten by police and arrested as Jew haters for demanding precisely the same.

The giant lie that for decades has presented Washington as an “honest broker” when it is Israel’s biggest arms dealer, its most vociferous apologist, its most terrifying enforcer.

The grand lie that required physically hauling two reporters out of Blinken’s farewell press conference last month. Each tried to remind us that Emperor Biden had been naked all along.

For anyone wondering why the media have been so supine through the past 15 months – failing in the case of Gaza to summon up any of the passion and indignation they so readily evoked over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – here was the answer.

The other journalists kept their heads down or looked away sheepishly, fearful that they might lose their access should they be tainted by any association with these rule-breakers. Decorum had to be maintained inside the royal court, even in the midst of a genocide.

The giant lie needed to be protected at all costs.

Snake-oil salesman

Whatever western politicians and the media claim, the ceasefire has brought nothing to an end. It offers only brief respite to the Palestinian people from their most immediate pain and misery.

We must not allow it to bolster the narrative of the giant lie. Which is exactly what Keir Starmer, Britain’s prime minister and the oiliest of snake-oil salesmen, sought to do.

In a statement on the prospect of the ceasefire last month, Starmer suggested that it would allow the people of Gaza what he called “a better future”, including the creation of “a sovereign and viable Palestinian state”.

Really?

No one wants to think through what the very best-case scenario for Gaza would mean – Starmer’s claim is based on the entirely fanciful notion that Israel actually wants a permanent ceasefire .

The reality is that it would take us back to 6 October 2023, when Israel was blockading Gaza, holding its 2.3 million people hostage. It was denying them the import of essential items while keeping them on a privation diet.

It was refusing the sick an exit to life-saving treatments they could only receive abroad. It was crushing the economy by denying businesses an export market. It was allowing the people of Gaza only a few hours of power a day, and surveilling them 24/7 through an army of airborne drones.

On the very best-case scenario, Gaza would return to this – plus all the devastation wrought by Israel since: no homes, schools, universities, hospitals, bakeries, mosques, churches; oceans of rubble to traverse; wrecked water and sewage systems; and vast swaths of the population needing medical treatment for serious injuries and disease; and nearly 40,000 orphans to care for.

Is that the “better future” Starmer was referring to?

What are the chances that Gaza will receive even this best-case scenario from hell when Israel is losing no time extending its genocidal policies to the West Bank?

The ceasefire is a lie because everything else we have been told is a lie: that Israel is a normal western liberal democracy, that Israel wants peace with its neighbors, that Israel’s army is the most moral in the world.

Israel is not just a standard-issue settler-colonial state – the kind that seeks to eradicate the native population whose lands it covets. Israel is the most lavishly armed, the most indulged settler-colonial state in history, and one addicted to its scorched-earth approach to the region it inhabits.

The truth is everything we have been told about Israel is a lie. Nothing can be repaired, nothing can heal, until the lies stop.

 

The damage of Trump’s Gaza plan has already been done

The proposal to cleanse Gaza of Palestinians tapped into a deep undercurrent in Israeli society — endangering any chance for a peaceful future in the region.

By Meron Rapoport

February 7, 2025

https://www.972mag.com/trump-gaza-damage-israeli-society/

In September 2020, toward the end of his first term as president, Donald Trump oversaw the signing of the Abraham Accords between Israel, the UAE, and Bahrain on the White House lawn. The deals, to which Sudan and Morocco would also become parties in the months to follow, were proclaimed as “peace agreements,” but it would have been more accurate to label them “agreements to sideline the Palestinian people.” Their goal was not to create peace — there was no war between these states in the first place — but rather to establish a new regional reality in which the Palestinian liberation struggle would be marginalized and ultimately forgotten.

The four and a half years that followed have been the bloodiest in the history of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Half a year after the agreements were signed, Israeli forces attacked Ramadan worshippers at Al-Aqsa Mosque and moved to evict Palestinian families from the Sheikh Jarrah neighborhood of Jerusalem, triggering a barrage of Hamas rockets from Gaza and an eruption of intercommunal violence between Jews (backed by Israeli soldiers and police) and Palestinians that engulfed the entire land between the Mediterranean Sea and the Jordan River for the first time since 1948. 2022 and 2023 saw record numbers of Palestinians killed by Israeli soldiers and settlers, as well as a spike in attacks on Israelis. Then came October 7, the ultimate proof that trying to sideline the Palestinian struggle is like ignoring a highway divider: it ends in a fatal collision.

Whether or not Trump understands this, his new approach essentially says: if we can’t bypass the Palestinians, let’s expel them. “I heard that Gaza has been very unlucky for them,” he said in a joint press conference with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu earlier this week, adding that it would therefore be best if the entire population of the Strip moved to a “good, fresh, beautiful piece of land.”

One of the first criteria by which the idea has been examined is its feasibility. By this measure, it obviously fails. The chances that more than 2 million Palestinians — most of them refugees or descendants of refugees from the Nakba of 1948, who for 75 years have remained in refugee camps in Gaza rather than leave their homeland — would now agree to leave it are close to zero.

The likelihood that countries like Jordan or Egypt would accept even a fraction of that population is equally slim, as such a move could destabilize their regimes. And the idea that the United States, after putting an end to long, expensive, and deadly occupations in Iraq and Afghanistan, would now be willing to “own” Gaza, govern it, and develop it seems just as far-fetched.

But this plan is worse than the sum of its parts. Even if it does not advance even by an inch, it has already had a profound impact on Jewish-Israeli political discourse. Indeed, it would perhaps be more accurate to say that Trump’s proposal has tapped into a deep undercurrent in Jewish-Israeli society.

Standing alongside Trump at the press conference, Netanyahu was the first to welcome the president’s initiative. “This is the kind of thinking that can reshape the Middle East and bring peace,” he proclaimed. To nobody’s surprise, the leaders of Israel’s messianic right were also quick to express their own glee at the proposal, treating Trump’s press conference as if it were divine revelation. But they were far from the only ones.

Benny Gantz, who quit the government over the direction of the war in Gaza, described Trump’s transfer plan as “creative, original, and interesting.” Yair Lapid, head of the centrist Yesh Atid party, called the press conference “good for Israel.” Yair Golan, leader of the Zionist-left Democrats party, merely commented on the idea’s impracticality. It was as if politicians across the Zionist spectrum had simply been waiting for the moment when ethnic cleansing would receive a “Made in America” stamp of approval before embracing it.

This transferist poison will not be purged from Israel’s bloodstream anytime soon. And the consequences could be catastrophic for the entire region.

No incentives for negotiations

Even without American boots on the ground, the feeling that Israel has stumbled upon a historic opportunity to empty the Gaza Strip of its Palestinian inhabitants will give enormous momentum to the demands of Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir, who are urging Netanyahu to blow up the ceasefire before it reaches its second phase, conquer Gaza, and rebuild Jewish settlements in the Strip. Netanyahu, who appeared somewhat embarrassed by Trump’s bluntness, himself favors the idea of “thinning out” Gaza’s population and may well give in to these demands, especially amid fears that he could lose his coalition.

As for the Israeli army, a senior official was quoted by the Israeli news site Ynet calling Trump’s initiative “an excellent idea.” Meanwhile, the Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT), the army body responsible for overseeing humanitarian affairs in Gaza and the West Bank, has already begun putting the plans together. If, for instance, Egypt refuses to allow the Rafah Crossing to be used to facilitate Gaza’s ethnic cleansing, the army can open other routes “from the sea or land and from there to an airport to transfer the Palestinians to destination countries.”

Even if the ceasefire does proceed into phases two and three, the hostages are all released, the army withdraws from Gaza, and a permanent ceasefire is achieved, Trump’s plan will not disappear from Jewish-Israeli politics. What incentive would any government or party have to push for a political agreement with the Palestinians if the Jewish public sees their expulsion as a viable alternative? Every agreement, every ceasefire, might come to be seen as nothing more than a temporary step toward the ultimate goal of mass transfer. The possibilities for effective Jewish-Palestinian political cooperation will shrink significantly.

And why stop with Gaza? There’s no particular reason Trump’s proposal couldn’t be expanded to Palestinians in the West Bank — an area which he likely also considers “very unlucky” for them — or East Jerusalem, or even Nazareth.

On the Palestinian street, Trump’s plan will only further undermine any notion of reconciliation with Israel. Sometimes enthusiastically, sometimes grudgingly, but ever since the Oslo Accords in 1993 (and even before that), the Palestinian political leadership has affirmed the possibility of living alongside a state that was born through the mass displacement and atop the ruins of their own people in 1948. This was certainly never clear-cut; there were many obstacles, much double-speak, and plenty of violent opposition — not least from Hamas  — but this approach remained dominant for decades.

Once the American president proposes transfer as a solution to the “Palestinian problem,” and once all of Israel — from the religious-fascist right to the liberal center and even the Zionist left — embraces it, the message to Palestinians is clear: there is no possibility of compromise with Israel and its American patron, at least in its current form, because they are determined to eliminate the Palestinian people.

This does not necessarily mean that masses of Palestinians will immediately take up armed struggle, though that is one potential outcome. But it will certainly make it impossible for any Palestinian leader who tries to reach an agreement with Israel to maintain popular support. The Palestinian Authority’s legitimacy is already on the floor; by re-entering into a political process with Israel in the shadow of Trump’s plan, it will only deteriorate further.

A recipe for all-out regional war

And the danger does not end there. Trump, in his complete ignorance of the Middle East (throughout the press conference, he repeatedly stated that “both Arabs and Muslims” would benefit from the prosperity his plan would bring), has “regionalized” the Palestinian question, seeing its resolution not as a matter for Jews and Palestinians living between the river and the sea, but instead dumping this responsibility onto the surrounding states. He is not only demanding that Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and other countries agree to accept hundreds of thousands of Palestinians into their territories, but is also effectively asking them to sign off on burying the Palestinian cause.

Such a demand is a direct threat to the regimes of the Arab world. The Jordanian government fears that a significant influx of Palestinians into its kingdom could bring about its downfall by disrupting the country’s delicate demographic balance, which already tilts heavily Palestinian. But even in other countries with a less direct connection to Palestine, the situation is just as fragile. One only had to watch Saudi news channels on the day of Trump’s announcement to grasp the level of shock, threat, and fear surrounding this move.

Fifteen years before the PLO made a historic compromise with the State of Israel, Egypt had concluded that not only could it come to terms with Israel’s existence in the region, but it could also benefit from it, and signed the 1979 peace treaty. Jordan followed suit, and four and a half years ago, the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco embraced the same line of thinking. Even without having officially normalized with Israel, regional heavyweight Saudi Arabia seems to have reached a similar conclusion.

But Trump’s bulldozing move, and Israel’s instinctive embrace of it, could signal to Middle Eastern regimes — including those labeled as “moderate” (which, in reality, are often more autocratic than the rest) — that compromise is futile. It suggests that Israel, thanks to its military power and U.S. backing, believes it can impose any solution it desires on the region, including the forced displacement of millions from their homeland and the denial of their near-universally recognized right to self-determination.

Over the past year and a half, Israel was not satisfied with mass killings in Gaza and the destruction of the infrastructure necessary for human life. It also occupied parts of Lebanon, and is refusing to withdraw in violation of the ceasefire agreement; and it has seized parts of Syria with no intention of leaving anytime soon. This reality only reinforces the impression that Israel has decided it can establish a new order in the Middle East through sheer force — without any agreements, and without any negotiations.

The 1973 War was the last time Israel fought against the armies of sovereign states rather than non-state militant organizations, which have always been far weaker. Even if Israeli history textbooks now claim that Israel bore no responsibility for that war, there is no doubt that Egypt and Syria launched it because they realized there was no chance of peacefully recovering the territories Israel had occupied in 1967. 

The path Israel is now following, under Trump’s influence, could lead it to the same place, where its neighbors conclude that Israel only understands force. Indeed, Middle East Eye quoted sources in Amman stating that Jordan is prepared to declare war on Israel if Netanyahu attempts to forcibly transfer Palestinian refugees into its territory.

This is not inevitable, of course. A great deal depends on Trump’s whim, and how determined he is to follow through on his statements in the face of global opposition. The resistance must come not only from Palestinians but also from Jews in Israel who understand that they have no future here without living in equality with the land’s native inhabitants. It could also come in the form of new coalitions in the Middle East and beyond that refuse to accept American dictates.

What is clear is that Trump’s bellicose schemes, and Israel’s pathetic attempt to ride the wave, carry the very real risk of being met with force. And that would be disastrous for everyone.

 

The Saudi–Israeli normalization 'delusion'

While Saudi–Israeli rapprochement may be Trump's diplomatic fantasy, deep-rooted regional realities, shifting West Asian interests, and Palestinian national aspirations make it an elusive mirage rather than an imminent deliverable.

Stasa Salacanin

FEB 5, 2025

https://thecradle.co/articles/the-saudi-israeli-normalization-delusion

On 4 February, when asked if the Saudis demand the establishment of a Palestinian state as a condition for recognizing Israel, US President Donald Trump, sitting alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the Oval Office, swiftly replied: “No, they’re not.”

The Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs was also quick to respond, stating that its stance on the establishment of a Palestinian state remains “firm and unwavering,” insisting that Riyadh would make no deal with Tel Aviv otherwise:

“His Royal Highness (Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman - or MbS) emphasized that Saudi Arabia will continue its relentless efforts to establish an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital, and will not establish diplomatic relations with Israel without that.”

The statement further stressed that the Saudi position on this is “non-negotiable and not subject to compromises.”

Despite the fervent optimism of Trump’s newly appointed foreign policy team, the much-touted Saudi–Israeli normalization agreement remains an elusive goal, just as it was for his predecessor, Joe Biden. While Washington insists that such a deal is potentially around the corner, a more sober analysis suggests the pathway to a deal remains rife with obstacles. 

Spanner in the works 

The Abraham Accords, brokered under Trump’s first term, were hailed in Washington as a historic breakthrough in West Asian diplomacy, bringing the occupation state into official relations with the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan. Yet, the glaring absence of Saudi Arabia – the most influential Arab state – was the missing piece that the US and Israel craved most.

Biden’s tenure, rather than advancing Trump’s initiative, has arguably undermined it. His administration’s unyielding support for Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza and its brutal military campaign in Lebanon has alienated many Arab and Muslim states, further diminishing the likelihood of new normalization deals. 

Meanwhile, China has capitalized on Washington’s waning credibility, scoring a major diplomatic coup in 2023 by brokering a historic rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran – a relationship that, against the odds, remains intact.

Despite the changed reality on the ground, this US administration still believes that the deal between the world's largest oil exporter and Israel is still attainable on its terms. Mike Waltz, the Trump administration's new national security advisor, has stated that reaching a peace agreement between Riyadh and Tel Aviv is a “huge priority” for the new administration. 

Saudis caution: A deal on whose terms? 

While the Saudis drew a clear line and maintained it for a very long time by linking normalization with Israel to the establishment of a Palestinian state, neither Israel nor the new Trump administration have shown any willingness to accommodate Saudi intentions. 

Many of Trump’s supporters and major donors, such as Miriam Adelson, as well as the Israeli government, not only oppose any form of a Palestinian state, but are openly talking about annexing the entire occupied West Bank. Therefore, it is still unclear how Trump intends to reconcile two vastly opposing views and expectations and expand the Abraham Accords.

According to Giuseppe Dentice, an analyst at the Mediterranean Observatory (OSMED) of the Italian Institute for Political Studies “San Pio V,” Trump will likely fall back on his tried-and-tested approach – leaning on the Abraham Accords as a framework while resurrecting elements of his so-called “deal of the century.”

Dentice explains to The Cradle that the ultimate goal of such efforts is to sideline the Palestinian cause entirely, pushing it to the periphery of both regional and global agendas.

Moreover, many believe that the Trump administration will launch a crusade against the “global intifada” and those who dare to criticize Israel or insist on prosecuting Israeli war crimes.

This approach, Dentice contends, essentially forces a single option in the negotiations: Take it or leave it. 

“Trump’s aggressive approach to Riyadh could backfire for the US and its interests in the Middle East (West Asia), especially if the Al-Saud kingdom continues to reject these terms, risking closer alignment with the agendas of other international actors (such as China or Russia, if only in strategic or instrumental terms).”

Saudi investments in the US: Buying leverage or time?

Some observers speculate that Saudi Arabia's recent announcement that Riyadh plans to invest $600 billion in the US over the next four years could be understood as a certain early bribe to Trump in return for easing his zealous pressure regarding the Saudi–Israeli normalization agreement and other geopolitical issues as well. 

While it is true that convincing the Saudis will be a tough nut to crack, Dentice, for one, does not believe that even such a significant economic commitment could distract or dissuade the new government from its goals. 

He believes that beyond the issue of normalization agreements with Israel, Riyadh wants to strengthen its understanding and cooperation with Washington, especially with this government. Nonetheless, it remains true that key figures associated with this administration, such as Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law, could undermine Saudi processes and intentions through their own business relationships.

For Dr Paul Rogers, Emeritus Professor of Peace Studies in the Department of Peace Studies and International Relations at the College of Bradford, President Trump is far too unpredictable for anyone to conclude on the chances of a deal with Saudi Arabia, but his recent comments on the option of expelling the Palestinians from Gaza indicate a very close relationship with far-right Israeli political factions. 

Dr Rogers tells The Cradle that he suspects “that the Saudis will stay away from any kind of agreement, no matter what offer they make.”

Arab public opinion: A hard sell

Beyond geopolitical calculations, public sentiment in the Arab world remains a major obstacle to normalization. The rejection of a Palestinian state, coupled with an aggressive push for Saudi–Israeli ties, is widely viewed as an attempt to erase the Palestinian cause altogether – an agenda that lacks legitimacy among Arab and Muslim populations.

Furthermore, many observers believe that Israel’s war crimes and the genocide in Gaza have made it very difficult and uncomfortable for Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) to continue peace talks. 

But West Asian views against normalization precede even the brutal 15-month war. According to the Arab Opinion Index from 2022, for example, an average of 84 percent of citizens in 14 countries rejected diplomatic relations with Israel. These figures show that the Arab enforcers of the Abraham Accords ultimately failed to reach or sway wider Arab public opinion. 

The war in Gaza has only cemented anti-Israeli views in Saudi Arabia, and an unconditional normalization agreement with Israel would only increase the risk of destabilizing the crown prince’s image in the kingdom and abroad. It would also humiliate MbS, who has publicly condemned Israel’s actions in Gaza, recognizing them as a “genocide.”

A mirage in the desert 

Palestinian statehood is by no means a simple issue, even if an Israeli government supported the initiative, which the current one resolutely rejects. 

Palestinian national aspirations can lose momentum due to internal divisions, the lack of an organized leadership capable of addressing current and future challenges, and the faltering support of traditional Arab sponsors – notably the loss of Syria following the ousting of former president Bashar al-Assad by Al-Qaeda-linked extremists – Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) – who now form the new government. 

For all the speculation surrounding a Saudi–Israeli deal, the reality is that no proposal for Palestinian statehood has made meaningful progress in the past three decades. As a result, ad hoc unilateral initiatives have increasingly taken center stage, often yielding disastrous consequences. 

In this context, the push for a Saudi–Israeli accord seems less like a diplomatic breakthrough and more like a mirage conjured by Washington and Tel Aviv. 

Dentice believes that in such a context, and with the prospect of a possible Saudi–Israeli agreement, the Palestinians will have even less political relevance in the future. This will give space for radical and armed groups to gain ground and further exacerbate tensions on the Palestinian and Arab streets.

Trump’s aggressive tactics may succeed in strong-arming some leaders, but they are unlikely to change deep-seated regional attitudes. If anything, the pursuit of an agreement without major concessions for Palestinians could inflame tensions further, pushing the region into even greater instability. 

For now, the notion of a Saudi–Israeli deal may be more fantasy than fact – an illusion sustained by wishful thinking rather than political reality.

Egypt lobbies against Trump plan to empty Gaza of Palestinians as Israel prepares for it

By  SAMY MAGDY

February 6, 2025

https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-hamas-war-egypt-trump-displacement-bc1c43f80655190824a5de4eb1d310cc

CAIRO (AP) — Israel says it has begun preparations for the departure of Palestinians from Gaza despite international rejection of President Donald Trump’s plan to empty the territory of its population. Egypt has launched a diplomatic blitz behind the scenes against the proposal, warning it would put its peace deal with Israel at risk, officials said.

Trump administration officials have tried to dial back aspects of the proposal after it was widely rejected internationally, saying the relocation of Palestinians would be temporary. But officials have provided few details.

In a social media post Thursday, Trump said that the Palestinians would be “resettled in far safer and more beautiful communities, with new and modern homes,” after which Israel would turn Gaza over to the United States. No U.S. soldiers would be needed for his plan to redevelop it, he said. Hours later, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio insisted again that the relocations would be temporary, with Palestinians living “somewhere else in the interim,” while Gaza is cleaned up and rebuilt.

Palestinians have vehemently rejected Trump’s proposal, fearing that Israel would never allow refugees to return. Egypt has warned that an expulsion of Palestinians would destabilize the region and undermine its peace treaty with Israel, a cornerstone of stability and American influence for decades.

Saudi Arabia, another key U.S. ally, has also rejected any mass transfer of Palestinians and says it will not normalize relations with Israel — a key goal of the Trump administration — without the creation of a Palestinian state that includes Gaza.

Trump and Israeli officials have depicted the proposed relocation from war-ravaged Gaza as voluntary, but the Palestinians have universally expressed their determination to remain in their homeland.

Trump and Israeli officials have not said how they would respond if Palestinians refused to leave. But Human Rights Watch and other groups say the plan, if implemented, would amount to “ethnic cleansing,” the forcible relocation of the civilian population of an ethnic group from a geographic area.

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said Thursday that he has ordered the military to make preparations to facilitate the emigration of large numbers of Palestinians from Gaza through land crossings as well as “special arrangements for exit by sea and air.”

There were no immediate signs of such preparations on the ground.

Egypt wages a behind-the-scenes campaign

Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi has not publicly responded to Trump’s stunning proposal that most of Gaza’s population of 2.3 million Palestinians be relocated and the United States take charge of rebuilding the territory. Israel’s 15-month campaign against the militant Hamas group had reduced large parts of Gaza to rubble before a fragile ceasefire took hold last month.

But in a statement Thursday, the Egyptian government rejected efforts to move Palestinians from Gaza as a “blatant violation” of international law that could undercut ceasefire talks and threaten Middle East relations.

“This behavior provokes the return of hostilities and poses risks on the entire region and the foundations of peace,” the statement said.

Egyptian officials, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss closed-door talks, said Cairo has made clear to the Trump administration and Israel that it will resist any such proposal, and that the peace deal with Israel — which has stood for nearly half a century — is at risk.

One official said the message has been delivered to the Pentagon, the State Department and members of the U.S. Congress. A second official said it has also been conveyed to Israel and its Western European allies, including Britain, France and Germany.

A Western diplomat in Cairo, also speaking anonymously because the discussions have not been made public, confirmed receiving Egypt’s message of its strong opposition through multiple channels. The diplomat said Egypt was very serious and viewed the plan as a threat to its national security.

The diplomat said Egypt rejected similar proposals from the Biden administration and European countries early in the war, which was sparked by Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023 attack into southern Israel. The earlier proposals were broached privately, while Trump announced his plan at a White House press conference alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Hamas, which still rules most of Gaza, has repeatedly condemned Trump’s proposal. On Thursday it said that any U.S. takeover of Gaza would be considered an occupation, implying that the militant group would respond with armed resistance. The group has yet to draw any connection between its objections to Trump’s proposal and the ongoing ceasefire. It’s unclear if it will have any impact on the next release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners, set for Saturday.

US officials scale back Trump’s proposal

When Trump unveiled his proposal, he said he wanted to “permanently” resettle most of Gaza’s population in other countries, allowing the U.S. to rebuild it as a “Riviera of the Middle East” for all people.

Egyptian officials said their government does not believe the Palestinians need to be relocated for reconstruction to proceed and is committed to the creation of a Palestinian state in Gaza, the West Bank and east Jerusalem, territories Israel seized in the 1967 Mideast war.

Israel’s government is opposed to Palestinian statehood and has said it will maintain open-ended security control over both Gaza and the occupied West Bank. Israel annexed east Jerusalem in a move not recognized by most of the international community and considers the entire city its capital.

Last week, Egypt hosted a meeting of top diplomats from Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates — which was the driving force behind the 2020 Abraham Accords Trump brokered with Israel. All five Arab nations rejected the transfer of Palestinians out of Gaza or the West Bank.

In an editorial on Thursday, Egypt’s main state-run daily, Al-Ahram, warned that “the Arab countries’ independence, their peoples’ unity and their territorial integrity are under grave threat.”