UAE’s sub-imperial project: Erecting a covert empire
across the Red Sea
From Sudan to Socotra, the UAE fuses soft power with
militarized control to dominate trade routes, fuel proxy wars, and entrench
Israeli–Emirati security interests across the Horn of Africa and Yemen.
MAY 27, 2025
https://thecradle.co/articles/uaes-sub-imperial-project-erecting-a-covert-empire-across-the-red-sea
Since 2015, the UAE has abandoned its historical
posture of neutrality in favor of assertive regional entanglements. This
transition coincided with the rise of Mohammed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan (MbZ) to the
position of commander of the armed forces and, eventually, the
presidency.
Under his leadership, the UAE accelerated a strategy
that fuses militarization with aggressive branding of soft power. This
transformation builds upon military capability developments initiated in the
1990s and expanded rapidly post-2011, intensifying even further after
2015.
Abu Dhabi established military bases, armed and
financed allied factions, raised mercenary armies, and intervened directly in
conflicts – most notably in Yemen and across the Horn of Africa
– while simultaneously promoting a national image of modernity and
openness.
Ports, profit, and proxy militias
To entrench its influence, the UAE has adopted a dual
strategy of economic penetration and military entrenchment. Through investment
vehicles such as DP World, Abu Dhabi has taken control of vital maritime
routes, setting up logistical hubs, training camps, and bases in fragile and fragmented states.
These initiatives target strategic chokepoints along
the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean, notably Bab al-Mandab and the coasts of Yemen and the Horn of Africa,
under the guise of ensuring maritime security.
Sudanese journalist Kamal Sir al-Khatem tells The
Cradle that this expansion is not merely commercial but represents a
broader “sub-imperial” project:
"The UAE represents a model of a peripheral state
that practices imperialism within its own region, while at the same time
remaining dependent on the United States as the main imperialist power."
He highlights the UAE's $60 billion investment
footprint in Africa, placing it just behind China, the EU, and the US in
foreign investment rankings. Beyond port development, these investments include
logistics, supply chains, energy, agriculture, and mineral extraction,
particularly in countries with weak governance and oversight.
Abu Dhabi's approach weaves together economic ventures
and militarized interventions in a coordinated manner that allows it to
neutralize rival ports and assert control over pivotal hubs like Djibouti,
Aden, and Port Sudan. These efforts reflect strategic ambitions to monopolize
regional trade arteries and reinforce its leverage in global shipping.
Djibouti’s President Ismail Omar Guelleh, in a recent
interview with Radio France Internationale (RFI), accused the Persian Gulf emirate of leveraging its
multibillion-dollar investments in Africa as a veil for military expansion. He
called Abu Dhabi's $110 billion investment campaign in Africa a “strategic
ploy” and “a threat to Africa’s sovereignty,” adding:
“There is no such thing as neutral investment. Every
port or infrastructure deal is tied to a broader geopolitical goal …The
Emiratis are deeply destabilizing for the region.”
The Israeli occupation state's normalization with the
UAE has further deepened military-strategic cooperation, particularly after
2023's Operation Al-Aqsa Flood reshaped West Asian alignments. This cooperation is
rooted in shared security doctrines and manifests in joint projects and
intelligence collaboration across contested zones.
The Horn of Africa: Abu Dhabi's militarized corridor
The Horn of Africa has become a crucial arena for UAE
projection. In Eritrea, Abu Dhabi established its first overseas military base
by leasing the port and airport of Assab for 30 years. DP World upgraded the
site, which became a hub for launching drones and deploying ground forces
during the Yemen war.
This positioning formed part of a strategy to close
the western gate of the Red Sea while securing the eastern gate through the
Yemeni port of Mokha.
In Somalia, the UAE capitalized on tensions between
the federal government in Mogadishu and the breakaway region of Somaliland. It leased Berbera's port and airport despite
Mogadishu's opposition, transforming them into integrated military and
intelligence facilities.
In Puntland, it took over the Bosaso port and backed
factions hostile to the central government. These interventions turned the
region into a base for Emirati power projection, reportedly including
UAE–Israeli coordination to recognize Somaliland in exchange for a military foothold.
The UAE's involvement in Djibouti began in 2006 with
the management of the Doraleh container terminal. However, disputes over the
contract escalated, especially after Djibouti resisted efforts to establish a
permanent UAE base.
The fallout led to legal battles, with arbitration
courts ruling in favor of the UAE. Djibouti refused to implement the rulings,
leading to the cancellation of the DP World contract and a sharp diplomatic
rift.
Sudan: A battleground of plunder and control
Sudan, with its 700-kilometer Red Sea coastline, is
critical to UAE ambitions in the region. The strategic location makes it a
prime candidate for Emirati port control. Yet, efforts to hand over Port Sudan
to DP World were fiercely resisted by the Sudanese Ports Authority and trade
unions, which rejected privatization efforts as neocolonial encroachment.
The UAE's involvement in Sudan goes deeper. It has
been accused of supporting the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a paramilitary group
implicated in war crimes and human rights violations. The RSF's military
campaigns in Darfur and beyond, marked by killings and displacement, have
prompted Sudan to file an unsuccessful case against the UAE at the International Court of
Justice (ICJ) in March 2025.
Gold smuggling forms another layer of this conflict
economy. As one regional analyst, who requested anonymity, explains to The
Cradle:
“About 80 percent of Sudan's smuggled gold is destined
for the UAE, where it is re-exported to international markets, making it the
biggest beneficiary of this trade. This trade is used to finance the war,
especially by the Rapid Support Forces, which manage their financial operations
from Dubai, in the absence of effective Sudanese supervision"
Yemen: Abu Dhabi's imperial springboard
But, by far, the UAE's most entrenched expansion has
been in Yemen. Under the initial cover of fighting alongside the Saudi-led
coalition, Abu Dhabi has since branched off, methodically building its
influence across the country's coasts and islands.
After securing control over Aden, it expanded eastward to Mukalla, Shihr, and the ports of Hadhramaut,
asserting authority over the Arabian Sea. On the Red Sea side, it took over
Mokha port after failing to penetrate Hodeidah, which remained under Sanaa's
control.
The UAE's ambitions extend to Yemeni islands. Socotra, with its strategic location, was turned into a
military and intelligence base following Emirati–Israeli coordination. Since
Operation Al-Aqsa Flood in October 2023, efforts to consolidate this presence
have intensified. In February 2024, an Emirati company controversially acquired
Socotra's airport, prompting popular outrage.
Ahmed al-Hasani, spokesperson for the South Yemeni
National Salvation Council, tells The Cradle that the UAE
entered southern Yemen through a 2008 deal with former president Ali Abdullah
Saleh to manage Aden port, only to paralyze it in favor of Dubai's Jebel Ali.
Post-2015, it expanded its reach to include Shabwa, Mokha, and the islands of Socotra
and Mayun.
Despite its expansive reach, the UAE has failed to
counter the Sanaa-aligned Yemeni Armed Forces' (YAF) threats to Israeli
shipping in the Red Sea. Hasani notes that Abu Dhabi has opened discreet
communication channels with Sanaa to safeguard its interests, effectively
asking for the neutralization of its own proxies:
"The UAE's control over Yemeni ports does not
only carry an economic dimension, but is linked to a strategic security project
in which it cooperates with Israel and the United States, including the Red
Sea, the Arabian Sea and even the Horn of Africa and the Indian
Ocean"
Across Sudan, the Horn of Africa, and Yemen, the UAE's
foreign policy reflects a pursuit of maritime dominance, regional leverage, and
economic hegemony.
It is a model of sub-imperialism nested within US power projection – a system reliant on instability, elite bargains, and the strategic use of soft power cloaked in modernity. The backlash from local populations, resistance movements, and regional states may ultimately unravel this ambitious blueprint.